Monday 1/5/26 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-05-2026, 01:08 PM

Al Cimaglia: Western Fair Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

January 5, 2026 | By Al Cimaglia

Western Fair Raceway has a 10-race card with the Late Pick 4 starting in Race 7. The sequence has a $5,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 7 (8:08 PM EST)

2-Modern Writer (8-1)-Doesn't start quickly, and that makes things more difficult. Garrett Rooney knows well and a big factor for success will be having honest fractions. Should be in a position to win at the top of the lane and will look for lively pace to close into.
5-Thatmomentinlife (5/2)-The pace of this race should come into play, and this one has my vote to get an early lead. Does good work at Lon (35-7-6-5) and should be on top or in the pocket after the wings fold.

Race 8 (8:31 PM EST)

4-Justine Ray (3-1)-Brady Galliers should get an up-close seat off the gate and and is a threat with an efficient trip. Will look for an aggressive try and might be overlooked.
5-Gentrify (6-1)-Nfld shipper is an interesting option, looks like a good fit and has gate speed to be put in play early on. Brett MacDonald knows well and could win its London debut at a big number.
6-Charmbo Stormy (2-1)-Grinded its way around at FlmD to finish 2nd, and this race could set up for a closer. The veteran knows its way around this oval (42-11-7-4) and could tackle the leader down the lane. But Sam Fillion has some choices, as the 8-year-old can still leave in a hurry.

Race 9 (8:54 PM EST)

1-Bettor Beast (3-1)-This is a logical play who is usually in the hunt versus this kind. This post draw could be the winning difference for a 4-year-old who has won 3 of 11 at Lon.
4-All Bets On Gary (2-1)-Beaten chalk gave it a strong try leaving from post 8 on 12-22 to finish 2nd. Now faces a bit tougher on paper but 5 from this field were in the last race and not the winner. Will look for another big effort and the price could be better than the morning line.

Race 10 (9:17 PM EST)

3-Mickeymaksomespeed (10-1)-Will take a swing Austin Sorrie can get Mickey to land on the point. Will need to time the gate and get the jump on the one below. The veteran does best on the engine and at this price is worth a look
4-Yourtheone (8/5)-The 8-year-old figures to be tough to down. Similar in some ways to the one above but does win more often. Comes off a gate to wire score for win 8 in 29 races last year. Has won 2 of 6 here and could take charge again at a small price.

$1 Late Pick 4

2,5/4,5,6/1,4/3,4
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-05-2026, 02:01 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise
PURCHASE

Turf Paradise - Race 4	$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 4-5) / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) $.50 Pick 5 (Races 4-5-6-7-8)
SO $4,000 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 4 and up • CR: 91 • Purse: $11,000 • Post: 2:45P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $4500 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON ON THE TURF. OR CLAIMING PRICE $4,000. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $5,000. (RAIL SET AT 14 FEET).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * VRONSKY FEINT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. FALL MOON: Horse has r un a Good Race within the last 30 days. ROLLIN BLACKOUT: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. CHAMAVILLE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. LOVELY LOLA: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Cl ass Rating at the distance/surface.
5	VRONSKY FEINT	3/1	6/1
7	FALL MOON	8/1	6/1
8	ROLLIN BLACKOUT	9/2	7/1
10	CHAMAVILLE	4/1	8/1
9	LOVELY LOLA	20/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	CLASSY	2	10/1	Front-runner	85	79	94.6	73.0	56.0
6	SHE'S SO SHINY	6	20/1	Front-runner	90	85	94.2	49.0	38.0
5	VRONSKY FEINT	5	3/1	Alternator/Front-runner	88	86	86.4	86.6	82.6
8	ROLLIN BLACKOUT	8	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	92	83	75.0	82.6	72.1
4	JOY IN GRACE	4	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	81	66	68.9	78.6	64.6
10	CHAMAVILLE	10	4/1	Trailer	89	86	69.8	82.0	73.0
7	FALL MOON	7	8/1	Trailer	88	84	69.2	83.2	77.7
3	GOLD COAST GIRL	3	6/1	Trailer	83	75	66.8	69.2	58.7
9	LOVELY LOLA	9	20/1	Trailer	99	79	60.1	70.6	58.6
1	HIPPIE TRAIL	1	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	75	78	52.4	57.2	42.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-05-2026, 02:02 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $18800 Class Rating: 59

FOR REGISTERED OHIO BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 5 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 ANGEL I'M NOT 8/5
# 3 MOBIL MEMORY 2/1
# 1 STATE OF GRACE 15/1

ANGEL I'M NOT is my choice. She has been racing quite well as of late while recording strong speed figures. Has decent front speed and should fare soundly versus this group. With a respectable 52 speed fig last time out, will clearly be a factor in this competition. MOBIL MEMORY - Has been running in the most competitive company of the group lately. Shows signs of the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 53 speed figure which is one of the strongest in this field. STATE OF GRACE - A solid 60 avg class figure may give this mare a distinct class edge versus this field.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-05-2026, 02:02 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #4 - Post: 1:26pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $21,000 Class Rating: 76

Rating:

#3 ONE IMPROBABLE (ML=6/1)
#10 KUZ IT'S CHILLY (ML=6/1)

ONE IMPROBABLE - The jockey and trainer combination have a beneficial return on investment when they combine forces. KUZ IT'S CHILLY - A thoroughbred coming back this quickly after a nice outing is a good omen. The jock and trainer combination have a beneficial return on investment when they combine forces.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 COMPA (ML=7/2), #7 WYATT HUNTER (ML=4/1), #5 WE MISS NEIL (ML=9/2),

COMPA - This gelding hasn't had any recent good fortune in sprint affairs. Not easy to bet on him in this contest. WYATT HUNTER - Hasn't been doing anything at all recently. WE MISS NEIL - The result of third in the last affair shows me that this horse may be going off form. You always figure that this horse has a shot to be the victor, but he fails most every time.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #3 ONE IMPROBABLE on the win end if we get at least 3/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-05-2026, 02:02 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #4 - Post: 1:39pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,400 Class Rating: 90

Rating:

#1 SHIVAREE (ML=8/1)

SHIVAREE - This jockey and handler have a high winning percent together. This horse brings in a lot of money per race around the track. I believe he can increase the lifetime total in this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 GAME BOY BENNY (ML=5/2), #5 ME AND CHILI (ML=3/1), #3 POPPY'S PRIDE (ML=7/2),

GAME BOY BENNY - This morning-line choice hasn't visited the track in awhile. No morning blow outs since last race. ME AND CHILI - This gelding registered a speed figure in his last race which probably isn't good enough in today's race. POPPY'S PRIDE - In any race of 6 furlongs, I like to play a contender that has been looking good in sprint contests recently. This thoroughbred likes to be in the money, but doesn't usually get the job done. Leave out of the top spot.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - SHIVAREE - Consider this. Finished fourth on the mud last time out. With better footing today, I'd expect a 25 percent improvement in ability.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #1 SHIVAREE to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-05-2026, 02:02 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $26000 Class Rating: 67

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000, FOR EACH $2,500 TO $20,000 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 FILLED WITH DESIRE 6/1
# 5 UR HONEY 15/1
# 3 IMPRESSIVENESS 3/1

FILLED WITH DESIRE looks to be a quite good contender. Should be carefully examined here on the basis of the figs in the speed section alone. Garnered a solid speed rating last time out. Is worth thinking about and may be a bet - strong speed figs (52 average) at today's distance and surface recently. UR HONEY - Appears to be the type to be helped with second time Lasix here. Ocasio has been scorching the last month, winning at a nifty 15 percent rate. IMPRESSIVENESS - Well above average win rate at this distance/surface. Will likely be one of the front-runners of the pack going into the midpoint of the outing.