12-15-11

[Mr. IWS]

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[Mr. IWS]

Today's NFL Picks

Jacksonville at Atlanta

The Falcons look to take advantage of a Jacksonville team that is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 road games against a team with a winning home record. Atlanta is the pick (-11) according to Dunkel, which has the Falcons favored by 12 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-11).. Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 15 Time Posted: 7:00 p.m. EST (12/13)

Game 301-302: Jacksonville at Atlanta (8:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 126.002; Atlanta 139.356 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 13 1/2; 38 Vegas Line: Atlanta by 11; 41 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-11); Under

[Mr. IWS]

DCI

Season
Straight Up: 142-57 (.714)
ATS: 109-88 (.553)
ATS Vary Units: 530-442 (.545)
Over/Under: 102-100 (.505)
Over/Under Vary Units: 323-284 (.532)

Thursday, December 15, 2011
ATLANTA 26, Jacksonville 12

[Mr. IWS]

NFL NEWS AND NOTES
Thursday Night Football: Jaguars at Falcons


Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons (-11, 42.5)

THE STORY: The Atlanta Falcons were seeing their playoff hopes taking a major hit on Sunday after staring at a 16-point halftime deficit on the road. Enter Matty Ice. Quarterback Matt Ryan threw three second-half touchdown passes as the Falcons reeled off 24 unanswered points in a 31-23 victory at Carolina. With a short turnaround heading into Thursday night's home game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, it was just the spark needed by Atlanta, which is tied with Detroit for the final two playoff slots in the NFC with three weeks to play. Atlanta also got a respite off the field when head coach Mike Smith was hospitalized with chest pains after the game, but was back with the team 24 hours later.

TV: NFL Network, 8:20 p.m. ET.

LINE: The Falcons opened at -12 and have been bet down to -11 at most markets. The total has gone as low as 41.5 and as high as 43.5, but is sitting at 42.5 at the majority of books.

ABOUT THE JAGUARS (4-9, 5-7-1 ATS): Maurice Jones-Drew scored a career-high four touchdowns – two rushing, two receiving – as Jacksonville snapped a three-game losing streak by pounding intrastate rival Tampa Bay 41-14. Interim coach Mel Tucker won his debut as the Jaguars forced seven turnovers and put up their most points since December 2007. Jacksonville had not scored more than 20 points this season prior to the outburst. Rookie QB Blaine Gabbert surpassed 200 yards passing for only the third time as the Jaguars scored the final 27 points.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (8-5, 5-7-1 ATS): Ryan tied his career high with four touchdown passes, including a pair of fourth-quarter scoring strikes to rookie wide receiver Julio Jones. Ryan threw for 320 yards and had a 120.5 passing rating, helping Atlanta improve to 21-0 when he has a passer rating above 100. WR Roddy White had seven receptions for 84 yards and scored a touchdown in his third straight game. TE Tony Gonzalez also had seven catches and went over 70 receptions for the ninth straight season.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Jaguars are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight road games.
* Falcons are 20-8-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Under is 6-0 in Jaguars' last six road games.
* Under is 8-1 in Falcons' last nine games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Jones-Drew set a franchise record with his 73rd TD last week. He needs two rushing TDs to eclipse the team record of 62 held by Fred Taylor.

2. White needs 36 receiving yards to reach 1,000 for the fifth consecutive season.

3. Atlanta RB Michael Turner went over 1,000 yards last week, the third time he’s done so in four seasons with the Falcons.

PREDICTION: Falcons 27, Jaguars 13 - Atlanta rolls and denies Jacksonville’s bid for its first back-to-back wins this season.

[Mr. IWS]

College funds: Thursday's best NCAAB bets

Savannah State at Wisconsin Badgers (-27, 111)

Wisconsin looks to head into final exams on a positive note when it hosts Savannah State. The No. 15 Badgers are coming off a tougher-than-expected victory at Milwaukee on Tuesday, rallying late after blowing a 17-point lead in the second half.

The Badgers rank at or near the top of Division I in most defensive categories, leading the nation in points allowed (45.7) and holding opponents to 34 percent shooting. A balanced lineup features four players scoring in double figures, led by junior center Jared Berggren (12.3). Senior All-American point guard Jordan Taylor averages 11.8 points and 5.5 assists for Wisconsin, which commits the fewest turnovers (8.4) of any team in the country.

However, the Badgers had a tough time with UW-Milwaukee the last time they took the court. Wisconsin slipped away with a 60-54 road victory, but couldn't cover the number as a 10.5-point favorite.

The Badgers should be able to get back on track in front of their home fans, but there's no way we're biting on this fat line.

Pick: Under

Oral Roberts Golden Eagles at Gonzaga Bulldogs (-11.5, 139.5)

This isn't exactly the way the Bulldogs drew it up.

Gonzaga has dropped two straight, losing at Illinois before dropping a 74-67 decision at home to Michigan State. Seven-foot center Rob Sacre continues to shoulder a big load and dropped 16 points while adding seven rebounds in the losing effort. He's putting up 16.1 points and 7.1 rebounds per game on the year.

"Shake off the dust and get ready, and get all that losing out of our system," Sacre told reporters ahead of Thursday's game with Oral Roberts. "[We need to] really focus on getting better and go after these guys. We're really hungry for these guys."

They had better be, because the Golden Eagles are coming off a big win. Damon Bell-Holter hit a heave at the buzzer to give Oral Roberts a 58-55 victory over Arkansas-Little Rock.

This is a big one for the 'Zags and they'll show up.

Pick: Bulldogs

[Mr. IWS]

Ice picks: Thursday’s best NHL bets

Washington Capitals at Winnipeg Jets (+105, 5.5)

We mentioned a little while ago that the Jets were turning into a heck of a home team in front of their crazed fans at the MTS Centre.

They improved their home record to 10-4 on the year with an impressive 2-1 win over the league-leading Minnesota Wild. Bryan Little scored his 11th goal of the season with about five minutes left in the third to put the game away for good.

"It proves to teams that we're up there and we can play with the best teams in the league, especially in our arena," Bryan Little told reporters. "We wanted to make this a tough arena to come play in. To beat those teams in our building is huge for our confidence."

Winnipeg closed around -110 for their win over Minnesota, but if you get at this line early, you’ll see an even better price with the overvalued Capitals coming to town.

The Jets will give Ovechkin and company all they can handle.

Pick: Jets

New York Rangers at St. Louis Blues (-135, 5)

You don’t see the Rangers pegged as underdogs very often these days (just four times over the last 18 games, to be exact) and for good reason.

They’ve bought into a strong defensive system and Brad Richards has been everything this team has needed and more after a bit of a slow start.

"I have to admit that even though I wanted to come here, it was a hell of a transition, especially since I'm not the kind of person who is the best at adapting to change," Richards told reporters about his move from Dallas. "Mentally, it took its toll on me, and I wasn't as sharp as I wanted to be or needed to be, but thankfully I got great support from my teammates and we were winning. I'm starting to feel it come now. I feel comfortable being here and living here. The best is ahead of me."

That’s an exciting prospect for Rangers supporters considering he’s already tied for the team lead with 25 points. New York struggled to get much going in a 1-0 home loss to Dallas on Tuesday, but this team bounces back well.

Good value on the visitors here and the under looks tempting too.

Pick: Rangers

[Mr. IWS]

Thursday’s betting tips: Jags-Falcons line still moving

Who’s hot

NFL: The under is 8-1 in Atlanta’s last nine.

NHL: Detroit has won 10 of its last 12.

NHL: Vancouver has won nine of its last 11.

NCAAB: Wisconsin is 9-3 against the spread following an ATS loss.

Who’s not

NFL: Jacksonville is 2-5-1 against the spread in its last eight road games.

NHL: Edmonton is 1-7 in its last eight meetings with Phoenix.

NHL: Tampa Bay is 1-7 in its last eight.

NCAAB: George Washington is 1-5 against the spread in its last six home games.

Key stat

17– The St. Louis Blues fired Davis Payne earlier this season and brought in veteran coach Ken Hitchcock in hopes he could improve the team’s defense. The Blues are now the NHL’s best under bet, checking under the total 17 times this season compared to eight overs. They host the New York Rangers Thursday night as -135 favorites with a 5-goal over/under.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Josh Scobee, Jacksonville Jaguars - Scobee did not kick in practice Tuesday and was limited Wednesday, leaving his status in question for Thursday's game against the Atlanta Falcons. Scobee suffered a groin injury in Sunday's win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Jacksonville signed kicker Brandon Contu to the practice squad Tuesday as insurance in case Scobee can't go. Scobee has connected on 18 of 20 field goal attempts this season, including five of six attempts from 50 yards or longer.

Game of the day

Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons (-12, 42.5)

Notable quotable

“We can’t have anything happen to him. We just can’t. It will just ruin the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If something were to happen to him we would be devastated and hearts would be broken. We play for him.” – Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Kellen Winslow about rumors that coach Raheem Morris is on the hot seat after seven consecutive straight up losses. The Bucs host Dallas as 7-point underdogs Saturday.

Notes and tips

The Atlanta Falcons opened around -11 for their home game against Jacksonville at most books, but could be found as high as 12.5-point favorites as of Wednesday evening. Covers.com Consensus bettors were split just about down the middle with 51 percent backing the underdog Jaguars.

The Orlando Magic made it clear on Wednesday that they are keeping Dwight Howard. The Magic informed teams interested in the All-Star center that they intend to start the season with Howard on the roster, Yahoo! Sports reported. The news comes on the heels of the Portland Trail Blazers becoming a third team in a rumored blockbuster trade that would aid in the New Jersey Nets acquiring Howard from the Magic. Howard is considered one of the best big men in the game today. The 26-year-old averaged 22.9 points and 14.1 rebounds last season.

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger watched practice on Wednesday wearing a walking boot as opposed to cleats. Roethlisberger was brandishing a noticeable limp after suffering a high ankle sprain late in the first half of Thursday's 14-3 win over the AFC North rival Cleveland Browns. He was able to return and play the entire second half. Backups Charlie Batch and Dennis Dixon are both planning as if they'll start Monday's game against the San Francisco 49ers (10-3). Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin said Tuesday that Roethlisberger will have to practice in "some form or fashion" to see the field against the 49ers.

[Mr. IWS]

NHL Predictions

1 Unit Canucks -173

He just wanted to get this play out to you as he believed the money is going to be coming in on the Canucks and soon the play will lose value.... Knowing his form the odds might go the opposite direction!

[Mr. IWS]

LuckyDaySports

Thursday’s Comp Play

NFL
Jacksonville +11.5

[Mr. IWS]

BANG THE BOOK

Thursday's Best NFL Bet

Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons (-11, 42.5)

The Jacksonville Jaguars are going to be playing in their third NFL betting affair over the course of just 11 days on Thursday, as they head to the Georgia Dome to tango with the Atlanta Falcons.

The BTB Expert Handicappers have NFL picks for all of the big games on the docket. Click Here to cash in with your guaranteed football picks today!

The Jaguars hadn’t scored more than 20 points in a game all season long in their first 12 games of the year. That all changed last week when the team put up 28 in the second quarter alone en route to a 41-14 romp over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It was the first win in the coaching career of interim coach Mel Tucker, who is going to try to keep winning games down the stretch to prove that he can indeed be the full-time head coach of this team. The man of the hour last week was RB Maurice Jones-Drew, who had the day of his season and one of the best days of his career. MJD 85 yards as a rusher and 51 as a receiver, and he found the end zone a total of four times on the day. Jones-Drew now has 1,222 rushing yards and 348 yards as a receiver to go with 10 total scores. He is on a pace for just over 1,500 rushing yards, and he needs to pick it up just a bit if he is going to reach the 2,000 all-purpose yardage mark this season.

The Falcons are closing in on a playoff berth, but this is a game that they can’t let slip away. They are currently at 8-5 and a game up on the rest of the field for the Wild Card slots in the conference, and they are two back with three to play of the New Orleans Saints in the NFC South. Losing this game would probably end any chances of winning the division, though we must admit that Atlanta does have a relatively easy schedule left, save for a road game at those Saints next week. The Falcons had a huge second half against the Carolina Panthers last week, including two TD receptions by WR Julio Jones and four total touchdown passes by QB Matt Ryan. The defense has shown some weakness at times, but the truth of the matter is that the team really hasn’t had a bad game since going up to CenturyLink Field against the Seattle Seahawks. The team has only averaged allowing 17.1 points per game against since then, and that includes games against the Panthers twice, the Saints, Packers, and Lions, teams that are simply awesome on offense.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Atlanta Falcons Trends: The Falcons improved to a sturdy 7-2 ATS in their last nine December games with last week’s victory. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is just 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight home games. The last time that Atlanta was beaten in a game SU at home by a team that wasn’t a playoff team was against the 2008 Denver Broncos, a team that finished 8-8 and only just barely missed out on winning the AFC West. Ryan hasn’t lost a home game against a team that is going to finish out a year below-.500 in his career.

PICK: Falcons

[Mr. IWS]

NCAA Basketball Picks

Oral Roberts at Gonzaga

The Bulldogs look to take advantage of an Oral Roberts team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 non-conference games. Gonzaga is the pick (-11 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulldogs favored by 14. Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-11 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 15 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 541-542: Bradley at George Washington (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Bradley 51.792; George Washington 59.582 Dunkel Line: George Washington by 8; 133 Vegas Line: George Washington by 7; 129 1/2 Dunkel Pick: George Washington (-7); Over

Game 543-544: UC-Irvine at LSU (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: UC-Irvine 48.755; LSU 62.985 Dunkel Line: LSU by 14; 134 Vegas Line: LSU by 15 1/2; 138 1/2 Dunkel Pick: UC-Irvine (+15 1/2); Under

Game 545-546: Oral Roberts at Gonzaga (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oral Roberts 57.965; Gonzaga 72.203 Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 14; 133 Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 11 1/2; 139 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-11 1/2); Under

Game 547-547: Savannah State at Wisconsin (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Savannah State 48.820; Wisconsin 74.716 Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 26; 116 Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 27 1/2; 110 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Savannah State (+27 1/2); Over

[Mr. IWS]

Today's NHL Picks

Dallas at NY Islanders

The Stars are coming off a 1-0 win over the Rangers and look to build on their 4-0 record in their last 4 games after allowing 2 goals or less in the previous game. Dallas is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Stars favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-105). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 15 Time Posted 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 51-52: Dallas at NY Islanders (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.446; NY Islanders 10.603 Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: NY Islanders (-115); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-105); Over

Game 53-54: Los Angeles at Columbus (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.177; Columbus 10.426 Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-130); 5 Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-130); Under

Game 55-56: Vancouver at Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 12.460; Carolina 10.750 Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1 1/2; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-180); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-180); Over

Game 57-58: Calgary at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 10.638; Tampa Bay 11.458 Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1; 5 Vegas Line & Total: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 59-60: Philadelphia at Montreal (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.680; Montreal 12.330 Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1/2; 4 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-110); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-110); Under

Game 61-62: NY Rangers at St. Louis (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 12.013; St. Louis 11.581 Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1/2; 5 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-135); 5 Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+115); Over

Game 63-64: Detroit at Nashville (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.049; Nashville 12.642 Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-135); 5 Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+115); Over

Game 65-66: Washington at Winnipeg (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 12.043; Winnipeg 10.792 Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-115); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-115); Under

Game 67-68: Edmonton at Phoenix (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 9.754; Phoenix 11.253 Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1 1/2; 5 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-140); 5 Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-140); Over

Game 69-70: Colorado at San Jose (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 11.986; San Jose 10.901 Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1; 5 Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-210); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+175); Under

[Mr. IWS]

DCI NHL

Season: 133-112 (.543)

Dallas vs. N.Y. ISLANDERS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Vancouver 3, CAROLINA 2
Los Angeles 3, COLUMBUS 2
Philadelphia vs. MONTREAL: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Calgary vs. TAMPA BAY: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
ST. LOUIS 3, N.Y. Rangers 2
Detroit vs. NASHVILLE: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Washington vs. WINNIPEG: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
PHOENIX 3, Edmonton 2
SAN JOSE 4, Colorado 2

[Mr. IWS]

DCI CBB

Season
Straight Up: 1098-334 (.767)
ATS: 390-463 (.457)
ATS Vary Units: 1455-1918 (.431)
Over/Under: 419-419 (.500)
Over/Under Vary Units: 608-576 (.514)

Non-Conference
AKRON 74, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 51
BELMONT 87, Troy 69
GEORGE WASHINGTON 65, Bradley 59
GONZAGA 80, Oral Roberts 64
JACKSONVILLE 71, Winthrop 65
LSU 76, UC Irvine 62
MISSOURI 93, Kennesaw State 57
MURRAY STATE 82, Lipscomb 63
NORTHWESTERN 76, Texas Southern 49
Northwestern State 75, ULM 70
OREGON STATE 80, Howard 53
PORTLAND STATE 78, Cal State Bakersfield 72
SAINT MARY'S 87, North Carolina A&T 61
SMU 64, Jackson State 49
South Alabama 66, TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI 64
South Dakota State 84, NORTH DAKOTA 73
WISCONSIN 67, Savannah State 39

[Mr. IWS]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with Iona (-1) Wednesday.

Thursday it’s the Falcons. The deficit is 3029 sirignanos.