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*** WINNING POINTS ***
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Atlanta over Jacksonville by 13
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Atlanta has rarely lost at home during the Matt Ryan era going 24-4. The Falcons aren’t going to lose this one either. Ryan can attack a decimated Jacksonville secondary down three of its four top cornerbacks. The Jaguars have lost a number of other key defenders and last week receiver Mike Thomas and kicker Josh Scobee suffered injuries. The Falcons have New Orleans up next on the road, but usually take care of business against weaker foes going 16-5-1 ATS versus opponents with a losing mark. The Jaguars finally broke the 20-point barrier for the first time this season this past week. Maurice Jones-Drew is capable of allowing the Jaguars to play ball control.
ATLANTA 27-14
*** GOLD SHEET ***
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ATLANTA 33, Jacksonville 16
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To its credit, Jacksonville still competing hard for interim HC Mel Tucker. But don’t want to get too carried away by last week’s 41-point explosion vs. fading Tampa Bay that was helped in no small measure by the Bucs’ self-destructive tendencies. Meanwhile, Atlanta finding an answer to WR Roddy White’s recurring dropsies...throw the ball instead to Bama home-run-hitting rookie Julio Jones, who caught a pair of TDs last week vs. the Panthers. Jags’ depleted CB situation an inviting target for Matt Ryan as the Falcons draw a bead on an NFC wild card slot.
*** SPORTS REPORTER ***
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ATLANTA over JACKSONVILLE by 10
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ATLANTA, 23-13
*** POINTWISE NFL ***
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ATLANTA 23, Jacksonville 17
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From a 38-14 lambasting, to a 41-14 win, in the span of 6 days. So it goes for Jags, who hadn't topped 20 pts all yr, but scored 4 TDs in 7:32 span of 2nd vs Tampa. First 4 TD quarter for J'Ville since '98. Of course, a 7-0 TO edge sure greased the skids. Falcs overcame 16
pt halftime deficit at Carolina, with Ryan coming from 43% (1/2) to career-high 4 TD tosses vs Panthers, with Atlanta covering that one on a 75-yd pass in the final 4:17. Falcs tied in Wild Card chase, but are only 9 pts from an 0-5 ATS slide. So nothing easy. Atlanta 13-6 ATS as non-division host, but just 2-2-1 in that role TY.
*** POINTWISE NCAAB SELECTIONS ***
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THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22nd 2011
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So Alabama 74 - San Diego 73
MICHIGAN 82 - Bradley 54
Bowling Green 70 - FLA INTERNATIONAL 68
WRIGHT STATE 57 - Central Michigan 49
VIRGINIA TECH 81 - Eastern Michigan 60
James Madison 66 - GEORGE WASHINGTON 65
SYRACUSE 87 - Tulane 57
NO CAROLINA STATE 79 - Northeastern 62
HARVARD 82 - Florida Atlantic 58
FLORIDA 64 - Florida State 49 (ESPNU)
CHARLOTTE 75 - Miami-Florida 69
GEORGETOWN 80 - Memphis 70 (ESPN2)
SO MISSISSIPPI 68 - South Florida 51
WISC-GREEN BAY 73 - Idaho 72
CREIGHTON 64 - Northwestern 55
Lsu 72 - NORTH TEXAS 67
TEXAS A&M 84 - Rice 65
SAINT LOUIS 87 - Arkansas State 62
ARKANSAS 73 - Louisiana Tech 63
IOWA 81 - Boise State 68
OHIO STATE 75 - Miami-Ohio 55
WUNDERDOG CBB 85-55 Season-to-Date +$5440 1 OF 2 Game: Savannah State at Wisconsin (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Wisconsin -26.5 (-110)
This is pretty much an impossible task at hand for Savannah State. They tried here before four years ago and left buried in the rubble of a 79-32 defeat. In that game their top scorer registered just 7 points, as they shot 24%. They are picked last in the lowly MEAC Conference, so the improvement sure isn't there at this point. They now face a Wisconsin team that has been rock solid on defense over the year's but are even better this year, leading the country in FG% defense. It would certainly not be a shocker to see Savannah State held at or around the freezing mark in points once again here, while Wisconsin, who rarely turns the ball over has its way on the other end as well. The Badgers are all-in vs. bad teams who are winning less than 40% of their games with a stellar 13-3 ATS mark in their last 16, and will add one more to the victims list. Lay the points and play on Wisconsin here.
Hot teams
-- Dallas Stars won three of their last four road games.
-- Canucks won nine of their last eleven games.
-- Flames won three of their last four games.
-- Philly won its last six games, scoring 26 goals.
-- St Louis won its last three games, outscoring opponents 8-4. Rangers won their last four road games, scoring 19 goals.
-- Red Wings won three in row, 10 of last 12 games. Nashville won its last three games, allowing six goals.
-- Winnipeg won its last five home games, allowing six goals.
Cold teams
-- Islanders lost last three games, outscored 14-8.
-- Los Angeles lost last five games, scoring six goals. Blue Jackets lost three of their last four home games.
-- Carolina lost nine of its last ten games.
-- Tampa Bay lost seven of its last eight games.
-- Montreal lost four of its last five home games.
-- Washington lost six of its last nine games.
-- Oilers lost six of their last eight games. Phoenix lost its last three games, scoring four goals.
-- Avalanche lost their last eight road games. San Jose lost five of its last six games overall.
Totals
-- Five of last six Dallas road games stayed under the total. Five of last six Islander games went over.
-- Seven of last eight Los Angeles games stayed under total.
-- Five of last six Vancouver road games stayed under.
-- Six of last seven Lightning games went over the total.
-- Five of Flyers' last six games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Ranger road games went over total.
-- Four of last five Detroit road games stayed under total.
-- Last four Washington games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Edmonton road games went over total.
-- Three of last four San Jose home games went over.
Series records
-- Islanders lost three of last four games against Dallas.
-- Kings won six of last seven games against Columbus.
-- Home side won last five Vancouver-Carolina games.
-- Flames won three of last four games against Tampa Bay.
-- Flyers won 10 of last 14 games against Montreal.
-- Road team won both Ranger-St Louis games last season.
-- Red Wings lost six of last nine games against Nashville.
-- Jets won four of last five game against Washington.
-- Coyotes won seven of last eight games against Edmonton.
-- Sharks won seven of last nine games against Colorado.
Back-to-Back
-- Phoenix is 2-1 if it played the night before.
WUNDERDOG Game: Jacksonville at Atlanta (Thursday 12/15 8:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 42.5 -110
Last week the normally punchless Jaguars hung 41 points on Tampa Bay. It didn't hurt that the Bucs have lost seven straight games and in four of their last five they have allowed +35 points. But let's be clear: that 41 was simply an anomoly. Jacksonville wasn't exactly an offensive force in the game, gaining just 325 total yards on 66 plays at less than 5 yards per play. Let's not forget that this team had not scored over 20 points all season and has gone for 14 or less in nine of their last 11 before the Tampa Bay game. The Falcons may not be great on defense, but over their last 11 regular season home games they have allowed less than 20 points per game, including games vs. Green Bay, Philadelphia, and a pair with New Orleans, along with Carolina this year. So, there's no doubt they can hold down the Jags who average just 11.2 points per game on the road. The Falcons aren't a big scoring team. Seven of their last eight games have gone UNDER the total. While the Jaguars are little threat on offense, the defense has carried them all season. They have held eight teams to 20 points or fewer, and have played 12 of their 13 games UNDER the total. They have also played each of their last six on the road to the UNDER. The Falcons are a picture perfect 7-0 to the UNDER following a win this season, and the last four meetings between these clubs show a perfect 4-0 to the UNDER as well. Under Mike Smith, the Falcons are 15-6 to the UNDER when facing a bad passing team like Jacksonville (teams under 62% completion rate), 12-3 UNDER in non-conference games and 14-4 UNDER following a high-scoring affair in which 50+ points were scored last game. Jaguars road games have averaged just 28.9 total points per game this season! Take the UNDER here.
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