12-17-11

[Mr. IWS]

Richard Saber @ Gaming Today

Saturday

NEW MEXICO

University Stadium, Albuquerque, N.M.

Temple -6½ vs. Wyoming (48)

An 11 a.m. PT start. The Owls had a great season in the MAC finishing 8-4 overall and winning their last three games, covering two. Their last four games all went over the total. They head past the Mississippi for the first time and face the Cowboys who also had a great season, going 8-4 both SU and ATS. They stay West and the fan base will be theirs. By the way, the last five games Wyoming played went under the total. WYOMING.

IDAHO POTATO

Bronco Stadium, Boise, Idaho

Utah State -3 vs. Ohio U (57½)

A 2:30 p.m. PT start. The Bobcats won their last five before losing 23-20 to Northern Illinois for the MAC Championship, 23-20. Ohio finished 9-4 but only covered five times with two pushes. They did play west of the Mississippi beating New Mexico State in the opener, 44-24, a team Utah State beat 24-21 as a -13 point chalk. The Aggies’ two best games were a narrow loss at Auburn and their win over Nevada. State finished the season with five straight wins, but only covered twice. I prefer betting the total. UNDER.

NEW ORLEANS

Superdome, New Orleans

UL-Lafayette +5 vs. San Diego St (58½)

A late game (6 p.m. PT) in Cajun country could spell doom for the Aztecs, but I don’t think so. The Aztecs may have a defense that can handle the Ragin’ Cajuns. SAN DIEGO ST./UNDER 58½

[Mr. IWS]

Dennis Ball @ Gaming Today



SATURDAY

Cowboys -6 at Bucs: Tampa Bay is an enigma. So are the Cowboys. My money will not be on the enigma that’s lost seven straight. Cowboys need a big bounce back win after losing a big game to the Giants and falling into a first place tie in the NFC East. COWBOYS.

Lost with Jags Thursday

[Mr. IWS]

*** ARGH WEEK #1 BOWL PREDICTIONS ***
--------------------------------------
San Diego State 3 over Louisiana-Lafayette; total 60
Temple 6 over Wyoming; total 44
Ohio 4 over Utah State; total 60

[Mr. IWS]

*** NELLY'S SPORTSLINE ***
---------------------------
•NEW MEXICO BOWL - 2* Wyoming (+6½)
•IDAHO POTATO BOWL - 3* Utah State (-2½) - 1* UNDER 57½
•NEW ORLEANS BOWL - 1* Louisiana (+5)

[Mr. IWS]

*** MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK ***
-------------------------------
•NEW MEXICO BOWL - Temple over Wyoming by 3
•IDAHO POTATO BOWL - Ohio U over Utah St by 1
•NEW ORLEANS BOWL - La-Lafayette over San Diego St by 1

[Mr. IWS]

*** winning points ***

•dallas over tampa bay by 7

forecast: Dallas 29, tampa bay 22

[Mr. IWS]

*** WINNING POINTS ***

•NEW MEXICO BOWL
TEMPLE over WYOMING by 5
FORECAST: TEMPLE 29, WYOMING 24
______________________________

•IDAHO POTATO BOWL
OHIO over UTAH STATE by 1
FORECAST: OHIO 31, UTAH STATE 30
_____________________________

•NEW ORLEANS BOWL
SAN DIEGO STATE over UL-LAFAYETTE by 2
FORECAST: SAN DIEGO STATE 30, UL-LAFAYETTE 28

[Mr. IWS]

*** platinum sheets ***

dallas @ tampa bay
•play on: Tampa bay +6

[Mr. IWS]

*** platinum sheets ***

new mexico bowl
#201 temple owls vs. #202 wyoming cowboys

university stadium - albuquerque, nm
saturday, dec. 17, 2011; 2:00 p.m. Est
line: Temple by 6½ over/under: 48.5
•forecast: Temple 30, wyoming 16
________________________________

famous idaho potato bowl
#203 utah st aggies vs. #204 ohio u bobcats

bronco stadium - boise, id
saturday, dec. 17, 2011; 5:30 p.m. Est
line: Utah state by 2 over/under: 57
•forecast: Utah state 29, ohio 28
_______________________________

new orleans bowl
#205 la lafayette ragin' cajuns' vs. #206 san diego st aztecs

superdome - new orleans, la
saturday, dec. 17, 2011; 9:00 p.m. Est
line: San diego state by 5 over/under: 58
•forecast: San diego state 28, louisiana-lafayette 27

[Mr. IWS]

*** power sweep ***

•new mexico bowl
temple (8-4) vs. Wyoming (9-4)
forecast: *3-star rating: Wyoming (+) over temple
______________________________________________

•idaho potato bowl
utah st (7-5) vs. Ohio (9-4)
forecast: *1-star rating: Ohio over utah state
___________________________________________

•new orleans bowl
louisiana (8-4) vs. San diego st (8-4)
forecast: *1-star rating: Over louisiana/san diego st

[Mr. IWS]

Sean Murphy

10* BOWL OPENER SHAMROCK SPECIAL ~ 21-6 RUN : Wyoming +7

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Fargo

**10** OPENING BOWL ENFORCER (EPIC 70% RUN): San Diego State -4.5

[Mr. IWS]

David Malinsky

Top of the Ticket - Wyoming/Temple OVER 49

[Mr. IWS]

New Mexico Bowl Betting Preview
By Rob Veno

Temple at Wyoming Saturday, 11 am PT – ESPN
CRIS Opener: Temple -7.5 O/U 46.5
CRIS Current: Temple -7 O/U 49
Rob Veno Power Rating: Temple -6.5

Rob Veno’s Betting Take: The excitement level should be sky high for both of these squads. For the Owls, it’s an opportunity to be nationally showcased on ESPN after being snubbed last year despite an 8-4 record. This is a favorable postseason destination for Wyoming after beating Fresno State as a 10-point underdog in the 2009 New Mexico Bowl. The site may lend a slight edge to the Cowboys which play here every other year as part of the Mountain West. It also provides a reasonable distance for their fan base to travel to.

Fundamentally, this game has a pair of crucial matchups which figure to decide not only the side winner but the total as well. The Wyoming defense had some difficulty this season against premier rushing attacks allowing 333 yards to Nebraska, 318 to Utah State, 390 to TCU and 312 to Air Force. Including the 282 yielded to San Diego State and the 200 to Boise State, Wyoming has faced six bowl bound teams and allowed an average of 307.5 ypg and 6.4 per carry. That’s great news for Temple running backs Bernard Pierce (125.5 ypg) and Matt Brown (72.3 ypg) and the rest of an offense that ranks No. 7 nationally at 256.7 yards per game on the ground. Making things even more difficult for Wyoming is the running ability of Temple quarterback Chris Coyer who took over the starting job late this season and has run for 491 yards and 8.6 per carry. Coyer’s passing efficiency has turned out to be a gem of a discovery too as the redshirt sophomore is 22-for-38, 294 yards with 5 TDs and 0 INTs. Tight end Evan Rodriguez and wide receiver Rod Streater have become relevant and dangerous play-action pass options. On the other side, Temple’s overall rock solid defense has shown one major chink in the armor that can be exploited here. There were only a couple, but against teams with effective run/pass balance and the ability to spread the Owls out (Toledo and Ohio), they were destroyed. In those games, Temple’s defense was hit for 826 total yards, 72.5% pass completions and 71 points in what turned out to be a pair of losses. Temple head coach Steve Addazio seemed unable to make any adjustments to help the defense in these games and although neither Toledo nor Ohio has a good defense, they were able to do enough to get victories. Wyoming head coach Dave Christensen is a master spread offense technician and he has the tools to do some damage here in the form of multi-threat freshman quarterback Brett Smith (31st nationally in total offense), junior running back Alvester Alexander (4.9 per carry) and combined production from an unheralded receiving corps (top WR Chris McNeill missed the last three games and is out for this game).

Preparation and ability to adjust on the fly will be crucial components in this game which could see rain or snow showers. Despite the problems Wyoming had with strong running attacks this season, they managed to go 4-2 against the spread versus bowl opponents (4-0 ATS in the second half of the season). Meanwhile, Temple only played three bowl teams and went 1-2 ATS including 0-2 as favorites. I’ll give a very slight lean toward Wyoming +7 in this one.

[Mr. IWS]

Idaho Potato Bowl Betting Preview
By Teddy Covers

Idaho Potato Bowl
Utah State vs. Ohio Saturday, 3:30 pm PT - ESPN
CRIS Opener: Utah State -3 O/U 58
CRIS Current: Utah State -1.5 O/U 58

Teddy Covers’ Betting Take: The MAC, as a conference, has been a disaster area in recent bowl seasons, with a money-burning 5-15-1 ATS mark over the last five years. Ohio, in particular, has been a solid contributor to that losing record, with an 0-3 SU/ATS run in bowls under head coach Frank Solich, including a 48-21 wipeout at the hands of Troy last year and a 21-17 loss to Marshall the previous season. It’s surely worth noting that both of those games were lined in a similar spread range as this year’s Idaho Potato Bowl – one game was a pick ‘em, the other was +1.

The Bobcats aren’t in a particularly good spot this year either. Two weeks ago, midway through the fourth quarter, Ohio was well on its way to a MAC Championship and a trip to the GoDaddy.com Bowl game the night before the national championship game in January. But a late meltdown cost them a title and the bowl bid they coveted, leaving the team a bit shell-shocked as they began practices for their trip to Boise.

Utah State is a bowl virgin, without a postseason appearance since the mid 90s. But the Aggies faithful are buying tickets and readying themselves for the relatively short drive (four hours) from Logan to Boise. Gary Anderson’s squad is familiar with the blue turf from their time competing against Boise State in the WAC, before the Broncos moved to the Mountain West Conference this season. And they have no shortage of positive momentum, reeling off five straight tight wins down the stretch by a combined total of 19 points.

I’ve seen conflicting reports on the health of Aggies starting quarterback Chuckie Keeton, who missed the final month of the regular season. Backup Adam Kennedy filled in admirably for Keeton down the stretch: 71% completions, a 10-4 TD-INT ratio and 228 rushing yards. Regardless of which QB plays, look for Aggies RB Robert Turbin (1,426 rushing yards, 6.2 yards per carry and 19 TDs) to be the focal point for the Utah State offense. If Turbin runs well, the Aggies should win, if he gets stuffed, Ohio could get the first bowl victory in school history.