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2* Denver +4.5 (update -- only 1* at Denver +4)
2* NE QB Drake Maye UNDER 52.5 pass yards in the 1st quarter -112
2* Rams Tight End Parkinson OVER 2.5 catches -130
2* NE/DEN 1st half UN 21.5 -112
2* Den Mims OVER 27.5 rec yards -112
2* Den RB Harvey OV 11.5 attempts -118
Should not bury the lead in this one as, after Bronco’s QB Nix broke his ankle last week in OT, QB Stidham will now take over the role as signal caller. HE HAS NOT THROWN A PASS IN 2 YEARS. As a result, this line has moved a full touchdown from where it would have been. Last week, the Broncos survived Buffalo on this field 33-30 despite being outrushed 183-70 and outgained 449-349. 5 turnovers by Buffalo, including 3 lost fumbles, sealed the fate for a Buffalo team who once again failed to get over the Playoff hump, and as a result, fired HC McDermott. New England profited from the same fate as that of Buffalo when last week’s opponent Houston turned the ball over 5 times resulting in a 28-16 victory in which they only had a 7 yard edge. With the Bears out of the Playoffs, it’s New England, who was projected with just 8.5 victories for the season, and was just 4-13 LY, who takes on the role of “Cinderella” with their 16-3 SU record, including 14-1 SU of late. Does the Fairy Tale Season for New England continue behind 1st year HC Vrabel and 2nd year QB May, or does the home field of the Broncos where they are 13-1 SU of late extend the record of NFL Playoff home dogs of 4 or more points to 10-0 ATS.
3% SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-2.5) 6:30 PM ET
These Division rivals played a pair of crazy games earlier this season splitting a pair of decisions in which the margin was a total of 3 points. Rams (-3) won 28-19 earlier at home. Seattle had a 414-249 yardage edge but were -3 in turnovers with QB Darnold throwing 4 Picks. In the rematch, the Seahawks won 38-37 at home in OT as 1.5 chalk making it the 2nd time in the series that the minimal home favorite did not cover. Note that it is a 91% ATS historical play in NFL games where the line is 6 or less that the team who wins the game outright also covers the spread. In that contest, the Rams had a 581-415 yardage edge. Today, they play the rubber match with a situational advantage for the home team Seahawks who enter on an 8-0 SU run, the longest of the remaining Playoff teams. While Seattle had a virtual cakewalk over San Francisco last week by a score of 41-6, profiting from a +3 TO margin, life has been far different for the Rams. Today they will be playing their 7th road game in 9 weeks and their 3rd consecutive Playoff game on the road, this time with one less days rest than Seattle who played last Saturday. Unlike the Seahawks who will have plenty in their emotional well, the Rams battled to survive each of the last two weeks with narrow victories over Carolina, 34-31, and last week against the Bears, 20-17, a game in which they were outgained 417-340 but were +3 in TOs, including the meaningful OT Pick. The FCB finds that Seattle has all 4 defensive metrics of YPPL, points, YPR and total yardage in their favor behind the outstanding record of QB Darnold (oblique, will play) who is 14-5 SU vs. winning teams.
NBA First BAsket
3pm Kings v Det
Cunningham+485(.5u) DK
Duren+700(.5u) FD
NFL
3pm Both teams to make a 33+yard FG YES-115(1u)
3pm BTTS 1+TD ea half+200(1u) 2+4000(.25u)
3pm Marvin Mims 1.5 rush yards-125(1u) MGM
3pm First drive result Punt for each team +1299(.25u)
3pm First drive punt first game Pats, Denver +271(.5u)
630pm Ferguson 13.5 rec yards-135(1u) MGM
630pm Parksinson longest rec 13.5 yards-120(1u)
BILL THE BILLDER Parlay Stidham 125+ pass, Maye 150+pass, Stevenson 25+ rush, Harvey 15+ rush, Diggs 15+ rec-120(1u)
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