12-18-11

[Mr. IWS]

New Guys!

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Note:

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[Mr. IWS]

Dunkel

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 17 Time Posted: 7:00 p.m. EST (12/13)

Game 303-304: Dallas at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 130.198; Tampa Bay 121.122 Dunkel Line: Dallas by 9; 49 Vegas Line: Dallas by 6 1/2; 46 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-6 1/2); Over

Game 305-306: Washington at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 125.318; NY Giants 133.451 Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 8; 48 Vegas Line: NY Giants by 7; 45 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-7); Over

Game 307-308: Green Bay at Kansas City (4:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 143.187; Kansas City 127.773 Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 15 1/2; 42 Vegas Line: Green Bay by 13 1/2; 46 Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-13 1/2); Under

Game 309-310: New Orleans at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 139.647; Minnesota 128.248 Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 11 1/2; 46 Vegas Line: New Orleans by 7; 50 Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-7); Under

Game 311-312: Seattle at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 126.644; Chicago 134.045 Dunkel Line: Chicago by 7 1/2; 43 Vegas Line: Chicago by 3 1/2; 35 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3 1/2); Over

Game 313-314: Miami at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami 131.407; Buffalo 124.573 Dunkel Line: Miami by 7; 43 Vegas Line: Miami by 1 1/2; No Total Dunkel Pick: Miami (-1 1/2); N/A

Game 315-316: Carolina at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 128.517; Houston 141.957 Dunkel Line: Houston by 13 1/2; 41 Vegas Line: Houston by 6; 46 Dunkel Pick: Houston (-6); Under

Game 317-318: Tennessee at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 131.875; Indianapolis 123.907 Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 8; 37 Vegas Line: Tennessee by 6 1/2; 41 Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-6 1/2); Under

Game 319-320: Cincinnati at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 128.082; St. Louis 124.581 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 3 1/2; 43 Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 6 1/2; 38 1/2 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+6 1/2); Over

Game 321-322: Detroit at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 131.491; Oakland 128.908 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 52 Vegas Line: Detroit by 1; 47 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-1); Over

Game 323-324: New England at Denver (4:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New England 138.842; Denver 134.969 Dunkel Line: New England by 4; 43 Vegas Line: New England by 7; 46 Dunkel Pick: Denver (+7); Under

Game 325-326: NY Jets at Philadelphia (4:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 135.794; Philadelphia 135.425 Dunkel Line: Even; 47 Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 44 Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+3); Over

Game 327-328: Cleveland at Arizona (4:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 126.245 Arizona 134.093 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 8; 34 Vegas Line: Arizona by 6 1/2; 37 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-6 1/2); Under

Game 329-330: Baltimore at San Diego (8:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 137.469; San Diego 139.420 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2; 46 Vegas Line: Baltimore by 2 1/2; 44 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+2 1/2); Over

[Mr. IWS]

DCI NFL

Sunday, December 18, 2011
Miami 23, BUFFALO 16
CHICAGO 23, Seattle 15
Tennessee 27, INDIANAPOLIS 13
Green Bay 30, KANSAS CITY 13
Cincinnati 23, ST. LOUIS 13
New Orleans 35, MINNESOTA 23
N.Y. GIANTS 31, Washington 20
HOUSTON 31, Carolina 15
OAKLAND 30, Detroit 27
New England 27, DENVER 23
N.Y. Jets 25, PHILADELPHIA 20
ARIZONA 20, Cleveland 10
Baltimore 21, SAN DIEGO 20

[Mr. IWS]

Football Jesus Free NFL pick : SF 49er

[Mr. IWS]

Colin Cowheard Blazing Five
4-1 (last week)
42-27 (Overall)
Pitt+
Buff+
SD+
TB+
Den+

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo

NFL

Small Medium
New Orleans (-6.5) over Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 18)

Small
New England (-6.5) over Denver (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 18)
New York Jets (+3) over Philadelphia (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 18)
Green Bay (-13.5) over Kansas City (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 18)
Washington / N.Y. Giants under 46.5 (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 18)
Tennessee / Indianapolis over 41.5 (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 18)
New Orleans / Minnesota over 51.5 (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 18)
Cleveland / Arizona under 37 (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 18)
Detroit / Oakland under 48.5 (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 18)
N.Y. Jets / Philadelphia under 44 (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 18)
Seattle / Chicago under 36 (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 18)

Small Teaser
Atlanta (-6.5) over Jacksonville (8:20 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 15) AND Dallas (Pk) over Tampa Bay (8:20 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 17)

Seattle (+10.5) over Chicago (1 p.m.) AND Indianapolis (+13.5) over Tennessee (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 18)

[Mr. IWS]

Week 15 NFL Trends & Angles

Before going on to this week's feature angle, we would like to point out that the Monday Night Magic angle featured last week again won easily with the Chargers, and wouldn't you know it but we just had our fourth consecutive Monday night winner by at least 17 points, meaning that the angle will again be in effect for the fourth straight week!
That will be our second angle this week, but we will kick things off with an angle having to do with teams coming off of back-to-back big losses, as the Raiders and the Buccaneers each incurred their second straight blow out loss last week.

Play on any home team coming off of two straight losses by 14 points or more (61-40, 60.4% ATS since 2002): Those of you that have followed our past articles know that we love contrarian angles, and the general public usually does not like to bet on teams coming off of back-to-back blowout losses. Thus, you usually get some good line value on these losers in their next game, especially at home, where they are now over 60 percent over more than 100 decisions since 2002. There are two qualifiers for Week 15: Tampa Bay +6½ (Saturday) and Oakland +1.

Play on any team coming off of a Monday night win by 17 points or more with no bye week (43-23, 65.2% ATS since 1999): There was a time way back in the day where backing the opposite of what a team did on Monday night the following Sunday was profitable, with the theory being that the teams that lost in the national spotlight would be motivated to play better while the teams that won would be overvalued after the whole world just watched them win. Instead, just the opposite has been true since 1999, and we think that the reason is this original line of thinking became so prevalent that the contrarian actually became the mainstream, giving value to backing teams to repeat their Monday performances. This angle won for the third straight week with the Chargers last Sunday, and the trend says to take Seattle +3½ in Week 15.

During the month of December only, play against any favorite coming off of three or more losses (84-56-2, 60.0% ATS since 1985): Many times, teams coming off of three or more losses this late in the year have now been eliminated from the playoff race, and thus these teams do not enjoy as much of a home field advantage as they did earlier in the year. And even if these teams are still in the playoff picture, you are now being asked to give points with a team that is not playing very well. There is one qualifying play for Week 15, and it is a second-time qualifier in the Seattle Seahawks +3½ at the ice-cold Chicago Bears.

Play against any favorite playing a "bad team" after it played a "good team" the previous week (86-61-2, 58.5% ATS since 2002): This is one of our favorite angles, as it actually quantifies what good and bad teams are. For the purposes of our weekly angles and trends, a good team is defined as a team that has won at least 12 of its last 18 games, and a bad team is defined as a team that has lost at least 12 of its last 18 games. This is the essence of the Letdown Theory, and the fact that it is now quantified and has produced the results we expected makes this angle that much stronger. This angle lost its only play when last seen in Week 13, but it has a chance to bounce back with two qualifiers in Week 15: Cleveland +6½ at Arizona and Indianapolis +6½ vs. Tennessee.

Bet against any home team coming off of five or more straight up wins (53-36, 59.6% ATS since 2005): Bettors love to play hot teams, especially at home, but the oddsmakers know this and this angle looks to take advantage of teams that are becoming overvalued. This angle lost with Oakland last week, but there are two more qualifiers for Week 15: New England -6½ at Denver and Carolina +6 at Houston. In an added note about the New England game, when the hot home team is an underdog like Denver is, the home fade is 7-4-1, 63.6 percent ATS.

Play on any team that failed to cover the spread by 25 points or more in its last game (101-66-6, 60.5% ATS since 2002): The reason why this angle has worked so well over the years is a combination of teams not liking to be embarrassed and the fact that bettors usually shy away from teams that just lost to the spread so badly, thus giving them inherent value the following week. There is one qualifying play in Week 15, and it is a repeater: Tampa Bay +6½ (Saturday).

Play on any road underdog coming off of a road game (275-202-13, 57.7% ATS since 2002): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs. In the years that we have been doing this column, this angle has produced the biggest profit over the last nine years, as it now stands at +52.8 units over 477 decisions based on odds of -110. There is one repeat qualifier for Week 15, that being Cleveland +6½.

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

CHICAGO –3½ over Seattle

With three straight losses, Chicago’s playoff hopes aren’t quite down the drain but they are circling the bowl. Knowing that a trip to Green Bay is on deck and then finishing in division at Minnesota, this one becomes crucial. It sets up very well as price may be reduced because of the imprint placed in the betting public’s mind after the Seahawks consecutive blowout wins in a pair of prime timers over Philadelphia and St. Louis. The Seahags stock is high and the Bears stock is low and buying low and selling high usually works out well. Tavaris Jackson is a bad QB so that leaves Marshall Lynch and a bag of Skittles as Seattle’s main weapon. The Bears defense has to come up big and they know it. They have to dig down extra deep because they still have a good shot to make the playoffs and should they do so, Jay Cutler could return. Seattle’s last two aforementioned wins, both at CenturyLink Field, does not provide enough qualifications to be slotted in this price range against a cold-weather and desperate host. Play: Chicago –3½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

Carolina +6 over HOUSTON

This one appears short-priced and with good reason. The Texans have proven to be gritty during this seven-game win streak considering the injuries to several key personnel. But with division secured, don’t be surprised to see them take an unintentional afternoon off. While rookie QB T.J. Yates has filled in admirably, still prefer rookie-of-year candidate Cam Newton and his versatile offense to third-stringer Yates. Let’s also not ignore that despite being 4-9, the Panthers have blown seven, fourth quarter leads. Houston has faced Blaine Gabbert twice, Colt McCoy, a regressing Josh Freeman and rookie Andy Dalton during current streak. They also finish the season against Indianapolis and Tennessee, the latter at home so two more wins for the taking are right there and thus, a hiccup here would not surprise. Definite upset possibility. Play Carolina +6 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Washington +7 over N.Y. GIANTS

Those pesky Giants. Can never count them out, can you? But for whatever reason, they are better for our pocketbooks when taking points. That thought is corroborated when you track the G-men’s 1-11 mark versus spread in past 12 home games against teams with a losing record. Jabar Gaffney’s “Lambeau Leap” into the lap of an unconcerned Patriots fan and the surrounding Redskins fans was a bigger flop than Danny Snyder has been as a team owner. So yeah. the Redskins have their warts but their past four contests have all been competitive with Dallas, the Jets and Patriots included in that set. There is not much separating the NFC East teams and Washington plays its division tough with five covers in past six against its foes. Again, buy low, sell high. Play: Washington +7 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

ST. LOUIS +265/+7 over Cincinnati

We’d rather watch the Kardashians than the Rams but the Bengals are no great shakes lately, having dropped four of five and not covering a spread since November 6. Rams happy to be home after a couple of games on west coast and with Cincy hurting in its secondary, the host should hang around with a chance to win it outright. Cinci comes in here very demoralized after last second loss to Texans last week. That followed games against Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cleveland and Pittsburgh again. The Bengals are emotionally spent after that set and thus, getting up for this game with two home games remaining to close out season is a daunting task at best. Nobody wants anything to do with the Rams right now. They were blown out on Monday night and that has influence on the public. Having said that, this one is all about fading the Bengals in a horrible situational spot. Play: St. Louis +265 (Risking 1 unit). Play: St. Louis +6½ (Risking 1.15 units to win 1).

THE REST

INDIANAPOLIS +7 over Tennessee

The Titans need to win out in order to qualify for the post-season but with a pair of dinged up quarterbacks and the possibility of overlooking these winless Colts, an upset would not surprise. Indianapolis actually outgained Tennessee in earlier contest, that one held in Nashville. Play: Indianapolis +7 (No bets).

MINNESOTA +6½ over New Orleans

Saints may not be as goofy as the Cowboys, Chargers or Eagles but with previous losses at Tampa and St. Louis while barely holding on in Tennessee last week, we’re not anxious to endorse them at this price when outside of Louisiana. For a two-win team, the Vikings remain tenacious and should maintain that here. Note that you can take back +7½ at SIA and lay a quarter. Play: Minnesota +6½ (No bets).

KANSAS CITY +14 over Green Bay

You look at all the key injuries suffered by the Chiefs this season, and you wonder if a head coach deserves to be fired under those circumstances. Maybe not but that neck-beard in itself was reason enough to can Haley. Instead of just looking like a homeless dude, he has taken an important first step toward becoming one. Now back to the game. A premium is required when backing the Packers and despite obvious disparity between these two clubs, we can’t advise overpaying for the prized commodity. QB Kyle Orton should be able to start, a honeymoon surge is often occurs when a new coach arrives and Green Bay is being cautious with its starters after losing one last week. Play: Kansas City +14 (No bets).

OAKLAND +1 over Detroit

There’s not much shame these days in getting blown out in Green Bay and with the Raiders returning home after dropping a pair on the road, don’t be surprised to see them rebound against these Lions. Detroit’s defense is imperceptibly poor and Oakland gets a playmaker back. Play: Oakland +1 (No bets).

ARIZONA –7 over Cleveland

Cardinals are hot. Browns are not. With a little luck and three winnable games ahead of them, Arizona could find its way to the playoffs. Cleveland’s offense remains one of the lamest units around and one that is incapable of trading points against a capable counterpart. Play: Arizona –7 (No bets).

New England –6½ over DENVER

The thing about fairly tales is that there is usually a gloomy part before the happy ending. We’re not sure how the Tim Tebow story will end but the sad part is about to occur. Denver’s miraculous run has been aided by some fortuitous scheduling. However, with the Patriots stopping by, the gig is officially up. Play: New England –6½ (No bets).

PHILADELPHIA –3 over N.Y. Jets

Nothing can be said about the Eagles that hasn’t been said before but one thing they can do is sack opposing quarterbacks (42, second in the league). With an easily rattled Mark Sanchez at the helm for the Jets, expect Philadelphia to apply enough pressure to create ample opportunity for a nice win. Getting up for the Jets is not difficult, as everyone loves to beat this cocky intruder. Play: Philadelphia –3 (No bets).

Baltimore –2½ over SAN DIEGO

Defeating the Jaguars and Bills does not suddenly make everything okay in Chargerland. However, those two wins present us with a glorious opportunity to spot a small price with a superior Ravens squad. Baltimore’s disruptive defense too much for San Diego to contend with. Still, we’d proceed with caution as laying road points in a featured game is a bad habit and a bankroll killer. Play: Baltimore –2½ (No bets).

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy

6* #310. Take OVER 51.5 New Orleans vs. Minnesota (Sunday @ 1pm est).

4* #322. Take UNDER 48 Detroit Lions vs. Oakland Raiders (Sunday @ 4:05pm

4* #332. Take San Francisco 49ers -2.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers (Monday @ 8:30 pm est).

[Mr. IWS]

Jim feist goy --- san diego

[Mr. IWS]

Gridiron Gold Sheet

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (+3.5, ov38.5)
CHICAGO BEARS (-3.5, un38.5)
Sunday, Dec 18 2011, 10:00 AM PST
Seattle, with Matt Hassellbeck gone, erratic QB Tarvaris Jackson (11 TDs, 11 INTs) has stepped in and the ground game has been strong the second half of the season because RB Marshawn Lynch has been healthy. But now Left tackle Russell Okung will miss the remainder of this season after being diagnosed with a torn right pectoral muscle. Okung is the fourth starter on Seattle's offense to be lost for the season in the past four weeks. Rookie offensive linemen James Carpenter and John Moffitt suffered season-ending knee injuries four days apart, and receiver Sidney Rice was placed on injured reserve after suffering his second concussion in three games. The offense is 25th in passing, 23rd in rushing, while the defense is 18th against the pass allowing 236 yards per game. The Bears are a different team without QB Jay Cutler, who broke his thumb and will miss 6-8 weeks, a huge blow. QB Caleb Hanie has been forced in and threw for just 115 yards in Sunday’s stunning 13-10 OT loss at Denver, blowing a 10-0 lead. More bad news: RB Joe Forte suffered a Grade 2 sprain of the medial collateral ligament in his right knee. It's typically a four-week injury and he is out 4-5 weeks. Bears have a talented defense led by linebackers Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher. The defense is stout against the run (12th). Two subpar QB's, good defense and the windy city. The Bears and Seahawks will struggle to put up points.
TAKE: Bears/Seahawks Under 38.5

[Mr. IWS]

STU FEINER PRIVATE PLAY: Denver Broncos +6.5 (free this week on his video blog)

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Rickenbach

8* Minn Vikings
8* Baltimore Ravens
10* Denver Broncos
10* Arizona Over

[Mr. IWS]

POINTWISE PHONES:

3* San Diego, Cincy, GBay, Wash, Tenn, Denver

2* San Fran (Mon)

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG
Game: Seattle at Chicago (Sunday 12/18 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Chicago -3.5 (-110)

Like so many teams over the last six weeks, the Chicago Bears were Tebow-ed last week by the Denver Broncos. They gave up an improbable 59-yard FG that sent the game into overtime, thanks to Marion Barber forgetting to stay in-bounds in regulation. Then Barber coughed up the ball on a likely touchdown jaunt in overtime to give the Broncos a chance at the game winning field goal. As a result of their loss (in a game they should have won), we get some line value here. The Bears caught a very tough break when Jay Cutler went down with an injury, but Caleb Hanie managed the game well last week with no INTs while Marion Barber carried the offense, gaining over 100 yards. It was the Bears defense that has now allowed just 23 points in the last two games that has stepped up. Seattle at 6-7 is not going to make the playoffs and has never been a very good road team. This season they have played four on the road vs. winning teams and lost three of them by 10 points or more. Last year they lost six of their eight on the road by 15 or more points. This season the Seahawks average just 15.5 points per game on the road and that's not going to cut it here. Seattle is anything but a momentum-driven team as they are a pathetic 3-22-1 ATS in their last 26 after winning their last game by 14 or more. Meanwhile the Bears are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine after being held to less than 15 points in their previous game. Even with Hanie under center, the Bears are the better team here at home. While the public jumps on Seattle, I'm going the other way. Take Chicago in this one.