Wednesday 1/28/26 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Scott Shapiro: Tampa Bay Downs Spot Plays | Wednesday, January 28, 2026

by Scott Shapiro

With weather wreaking havoc throughout most of the country, the focus for most horseplayers will shift to Tampa Bay Downs on Friday for their 9-race card that kicks off at 12:20 PM eastern. Sunshine is expected throughout the week in Oldsmar, which is music to the ears of many with frigid temperatures keeping people inside in the near-term in most regions. Here are a few horses I will be locking in on tomorrow at Tampa.



Race 5:

This $25k maiden claimer at 1 1/8-miles over the grass lacks early speed. This should bode well for #3 Katarzyna. The Maryland-bred made her first start over the Tampa lawn on January 3 and was not ridden for speed from her outside draw. She ended up making a three-wide middle move on the backstretch into a modest pace and understandably tired late. Prior to that this Practical Joke filly had shown early speed from the gate in her three prior starts, including a pair for current trainer Richard Stillman. Look for jockey Daniel Centeno to use the inside draw to his advantage by gaining favorable forward position out of the gate. From there, he should be able to control things throughout and get this gal to the wire first for the first time in her career.

Play: #3 Katarzyna (9-2 ML)


Race 8:

The pace is not likely to be dawdling, but they also probably will not go cutthroat three across the track like some of these runners saw when competing in a similar spot on January 2. That race was won by #9 Lucky Curlin, but he is up against it to win right back. I much prefer class dropper #5 Fort Charles. The Khozan gelding exits a pair of open claimers earlier in the meet won by 12-time winner The Best Distance, who would be a massive favorite if eligible for this condition. Trainer Michael Simone claimed this 5YO two-back for $8k, raised him up in class on a quick return where he finished mid-pack, and now drops him into him a perfect spot off more normal rest. Expect him to sit mid-pack early under jockey Samy Camacho and out finish this field late for his first local victory.

Play: #5 Fort Charles (3-1 ML)


Race 9:

The finale is a non-winners of two event for $25k claimers at one-mile over the sod and is led by 9-5-ML favorite #7 Life Advice. The 5YO mare struggled to win races against better in Kentucky and New York last summer and continued to do so in her first start at Tampa on December 13. The daughter of Into Mischief had an uncontested lead, yet was still unable to seal the deal. With speed drawn to both sides, it is unlikely Life Advice has things easier in the Wednesday finale, so I will look to a runner who can settle early and take advantage late. #1 Big Lous Messenger fits the profile despite not crossing the wire first yet. The Bucchero filly moved into the Michelle Hemingway barn late last year and put in a big late run in her first start over this course, but just missing. She was put up though via DQ, gets a rider upgrade to Samuel Marin, and draws well along the rail. She should be rolling late for the second straight start.

Play: #1 Big Lous Messenger (6-1 ML)

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BRIAN W. SPENCER'S DAILY PICKS

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Turf Paradise - Race #6

#6 Stretch Run	His form isn't totally reliable, but I like that he at least showed a little grit to stay on last time out, and a similar kind of trip might keep him in a good spot from the start while tracking a couple quicker players from close range.
#8 Mor Tequila	Nothing to write home about in the last several starts, but he has some races on his page that might keep him in the picture here and at least has a little bit of upside in the second start off the break.
#9 Colonel Punch	He should be in a good spying spot throughout here, and it'd be no surprise to see him land this if he just holds that form. Wouldn't argue too hard with you.
Race Summary	Stretch Run looks well-positioned to find a good spot just a touch off the quicker players, and I'm hoping that local debut last time out hints that he is going to stay a good fit with the locals.

Turf Paradise - Race #7

#4 For a Laugh	Nothing wrong with the recent form, and she has been a handful in her local starts. Guessing she's in line for another great trip while right up close again. The one.
#6 Law Abiding	Thought we'd see better from him last time out when idling late, but he's an OK fit with this crew and seems competitive with his baseline effort. Some appeal.
#1 Brother Reid	Finisher has been landing deep underneath shares in recent starts but seems not too far out of things if he can save some ground and work out a trip from the fence.
Race Summary	For a Laugh looks competitive here while in search of a fourth consecutive win -- the price should reflect the recent form, but he should handle this bunch if he maintains it.

Turf Paradise - Race #8

#9 Swiss Dancer	Honest finisher is capable of something better while dropping here, but her last couple haven't been all that inspiring and would leave her short if she's not able to improve. Would be interested at something like the 7/2 ML price.
#8 Curlin's Song	She showed some life when trying similar last time out, and she has the speed to stay close yet again here. Second start back also offers hope for some upside.
#7 Believe in Her	She didn't show much at first asking but brings some reasonable upside in a spot that doesn't feel like it has a lot of depth. Blinks on could help.
Race Summary	Swiss Dancer has had a lot of chances, but I think her baseline stuff would do the job if she can rebound while trying this softer crew.

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FRANK CARULLI'S DAILY PICKS

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Delta Downs - Race #1

#4 STREAKING (6-5)	Will be streaking to lead, with voided claim, distance and short price in the way.
#7 GOOD BRIGHT FLAMES (10-1)	‘Improved’ speed fig for 20-percent sprint-to-route barn.
#5 BABY JANE (6-1)	Rallied for two wins and a second in last five starts, added ground should help.
Race Summary	STREAKING, claimed for $20,000 two months ago, takes an all-or-nothing plunge to the bottom level in her second long-distance test to date. She came 3-wide for the stretch drive but lacked kick as the favorite in a $10,000 claimer last out won by second choice Dance My Way (29/5-4-5, $174k). She has two front-end wins at 6F in her last four tries on a fast dirt track and should take some catching at one mile in a field that is a combined 4-for-63 at Delta Downs. Make a flat win bet and play 4-5 and 4-7 exactas.

Delta Downs - Race #3

#1 OCEAN’S RULER (8-1)	Can make maximum use of his speed in second start off layoff, lures Del-Cid.
#9 UNINSPIRED (2-1)	Continues to pile up the checks while burning money along the way.
#8 BABY ZONG (8-1)	Exited ‘triple key’ race and earned his top speed figure in long sprint.
Race Summary	OCEAN’S RULER chased and passed the 3-to-5 favorite but finished second to the 11-1 winner on a ‘wet fast’ track at the same distance. But it was his first start in five months and he can handle the class rise as the clear speed from the rail with Del-Cid summoned to ride. He’s worth a win and place bet at a tempting 8-1 on the morning line.

Delta Downs - Race #6

#4 A WICKED NUMBER (6-1)	Seeks duplicate of wide run for second in same spot, use in all gimmicks.
#6 SWEET THIRTEEN (3-1)	Broke maiden for $10k, then failed to threaten on Fair Grounds turf.
#2 PERFECT DEAL (2-1)	Sat perfect stalking trip off dueling leaders, finished third off the claim.
Race Summary	A WICKED NUMBER sustained a wide rally from the far turn to the finish under these conditions two starts ago. She followed the move of the winner, who took late money, and passed a couple of her main rivals today. Bet to win and place and play 4-2 and 4-6 exactas

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Tampa Bay Downs
PURCHASE

Tampa Bay Downs - Race 4	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum) Pick 3 ($.50 minimum) (Races 4-5-6) / Ultimate 6 ($.20 minimum) (Races 4-9) Super High 5
Claiming $8,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 67 • Purse: $19,000 • Post: 1:50P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 28 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $6,250 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. HEAVENLY DANCER is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * HEAVENLY DANCER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the dista nce/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
3	HEAVENLY DANCER	9/5	5/2

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	HEAVENLY DANCER	3	9/5	Front-runner	71	57	76.4	59.8	54.3
2	INSTABRAT	2	5/1	Stalker	62	62	51.0	56.8	43.3
10	PADRINO'S GOLD	10	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	71	65	58.6	59.6	46.1
1	BOLT OF PARADISE	1	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	75	72	47.7	55.2	48.2
4	PIZZICATO	4	20/1	Alternator/Trailer	70	63	45.2	56.2	44.2
9	LIL TEMPTATION	9	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	65	56	55.6	54.4	41.4
8	ONE SPECIAL ACT	8	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	70	66	53.0	52.2	43.2
5	GO GO STAR	5	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	78	72	52.0	54.8	43.3
6	MEAN TO ME	6	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	71	53	46.4	52.0	43.0
7	SHE STOPPED SHORT	7	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	66	65	44.0	55.6	42.1

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 64

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 SWISS DANCER 7/2
# 4 FLASH THAT SMILE 9/2
# 7 BELIEVE IN HER 6/1

My pick for this race is SWISS DANCER. Overall the Equibase Speed Figures of this racer look very good in this outing. Could beat this field given the 60 Equibase Speed Figure earned in her last outing. With a sound 62 average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest. FLASH THAT SMILE - She must be given a chance given the formidable speed figures. Has been running very well lately and should be up near the lead early on. BELIEVE IN HER - Quite good try today with second time Lasix.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - SO - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $30000 Class Rating: 94

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $10,000 OR LESS SINCE JANUARY 28, 2024 OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. WEIGHT, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000 WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING IN THEIR LAST TWO STARTS WILL CARRY AN ADDITIONAL 3LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 SILENT MODE 8/1
# 5 STYNER 5/1
# 2 BESTSUGARDADDYEVER 2/1

SILENT MODE is the most respectable wager in this contest and the potential return justifies the very risky nature of the long odds. Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this gelding. Will almost certainly come out solid - I have liked the way this gelding has moved speedily to the front end recently. Must be given a shot based on the strong speed figure posted in the last race. STYNER - Has to be given consideration against this group of horses displaying quite good numbers recently and an average speed fig of 83 under similar conditions. He ought to be considered given the very good speed numbers.BESTSUGARDADDYEVER - The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Ness running at this distance are the best in this group of horses.

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Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Dover Downs

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 12
1	1	ALMOST PERSUADED	7/2	Tetrick, Tim - 28	514.39
5	5	CHEESEY LADY	8/1	Givens, Brandon - 9	500.91
4	4	MELODY HANOVER	10/1	Cole, Mike - 6	493.58
3	3	ALWAYS B MERRY	5/2	Callahan, Corey - 16	467.42
6	6	WATCHING BRIEF N	6/1	Stafford, Art Jr - 19	465.26
2	2	EARTH ANGEL	9/2	Beyer, Troy - 9	462.78
7	7	SHEILA SAZS	10/1	Davis, Allan - 12	444.07

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at The Meadows

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Post: 3:05 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 81 - Purse:$11500 - CD ALL AGES F& M NW $9500 L4 STS AE: F& M NW 7 EXT PM RACES LIFE

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 4 KELE KELE 7/2
# 3 K T PART E 5/2
# 5 GRACEFUL HORIZON 7/1

KELE KELE is the clear stand out bet in the eyes of the panel of smart guys. Many handicappers know speed is is key. This race horse has credentials with a 83 avg rating. With a 83 average class ranking, this entrant has one of the most competitive class advantages in the group of animals. K T PART E - That 83 TrackMaster SR clocked in the last contest puts this harness racer in the mix today. A great play in here as she has one of the highest winning figures in the group of animals as well as magnificent credentials all around. GRACEFUL HORIZON - Comp pace figs say this affair should shape up nicely for this mare. Looking for a big effort. Don't let a interesting entrant with such a very compelling winning clip like this be passed over.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Yonkers Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Post: 8:05 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 80 - Purse:$12000 - CLAIMING ALLOWANCE $15,000.

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 6 SHAKE IT 6/5
# 4 NEYREIT 5/2
# 7 SMOOTH LOU 12/1

Feel pretty confident putting cash down on SHAKE IT. Can't pass over based on speed figures which have been terrific (86 avg) of late. This standardbred looks tough considering the high class figures. We wouldn't recommend tossing out of any exotics. One of the most favorable win percents with this driver-trainer make this gelding dangerous. NEYREIT - Is a formidable win contender given the 83 TrackMaster speed fig from his most recent contest. This nice horse may have some hidden form, a top prize would be a pleasant surprise. SMOOTH LOU - He's doing work in good form, recording very strong TrackMaster Speed Ratings. An excellent pick. This gelding has been battling against some of the most competitive company in this group of horses lately.

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Tulsa -10.5 over North Texas

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Free play from Razor Sharp


YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR WEDNESDAY: DRAKE (CBB) -9 over Evansville

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Free play from #1 Sports


Wednesday's Free Play: Marshall Thundering Herd - 3

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Free play from Platinum Plays


Your Free Pick: the Oregon St Beavers +6 over Loyola-Marymount Lions

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Free play from Hawkeye Sports


Wednesday's Free Pick: Ottawa Senators + 140