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Pittsburgh +3 over SAN FRANCISCO
The Pittsburgh Steelers have been the most opportunistic team in the NFL for decades and the door has opened once again for them. Without taking the field until tonight, the Steelers clinched a playoff spot on Sunday. Most importantly, the Ravens loss last night gives the Steelers full control of the division. With three straight wins, beginning here, Pittsburgh will secure a first-round bye and home field thereafter. Ben Roethlisberger is expected to start tonight and the decision had nothing to with the Ravens' loss Sunday night in San Diego. The Steelers reached the decision to start Roethlisberger before the Ravens' 34-14 loss to the Chargers. When there’s a QB mismatch in big games, give us the points with the superior pivot and we’ll bite most every time. Alex Smith and the 49ers have scored just 25 TD’s (seventh fewest in the league) and they’ll be facing a Steelers defence that has allowed the fewest points in the NFL. It doesn’t hurt that the Steelers have won four in a row and eight of their past nine. They have also won their past three road games and six in a row on Monday night. Conversely, the 49ers have lost two of their past three games, with both losses coming against teams that pattern their defence after the Steelers -- Baltimore and Arizona. Play: Pittsburgh +3 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. San Francisco 49ers
The 15th week of the NFL season comes to a close Monday night in a match-up filled with playoff ramifications when the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3, 6-7 ATS) and San Francisco 49ers (10-3, 10-2-1 ATS) collide for the first time since 2007; kick-off for this AFC/NFC hard-hitter is set to go live from Candlestick Park at 8:30 ET.
The Steelers’ Week 11 bye looks to have come at the best possible time, as the defending AFC champs have started to play the type of ball that propelled them to the Super Bowl last season. Though it stands just 1-2 ATS over the L/3 weeks, Pittsburgh has beaten the likes of Kansas City, Cincinnati and Cleveland by the aggregate score of 62-19 while limiting that trio to an average of just 262.7 YPG. That's the type of championship caliber defense NFL bettors have gotten used to seeing from the yellow and black through the years, which has head coach Mike Tomlin's squad on the fast track to once again becoming a major player out of the AFC. Unfortunately, the offense will either be forced to go with backup QB Charlie Batch if Ben Roethlisberger isn’t able to give it a go after suffering a high ankle sprain against the Cleveland Browns last week. A bevy of other defensive players are also listed as questionable for tonight's game, but we do know that headhunter LB James Harrison will not suit up after he was suspended by the league due to the helmet to helmet hit he laid upon Colt McCoy last week. Pittsburgh’s 4-2 SU but just 2-4 ATS away from Heinz Field this season.
Rewind three weeks into the regular season and you would've found a San Francisco 49ers outfit brimming with confidence after compiling eye-popping 9-1 SU & 9-0-1 ATS records over the course of their first 10 games played. However, things have taken a turn for the worse since their Thanksgiving night clash with the Baltimore Ravens in the “HarBowl”. Since falling 16-6 in that game and giving up an unheard of nine sacks, the Niners split their next two games against NFC West opponents winning 26-0 at home against the hapless St. Louis Rams and falling 21-19 in the desert last week to the reinvigorated Arizona Cardinals. Many are of the belief that this team's major playmakers are running out of gas and that head coach Jim Harbaugh's squad will be an easy out come the second season. San Francisco can silence its naysayers tonight at home where it’s a stunning comeback by the Dallas Cowboys away from being undefeated (6-1 SU & 6-0-1 ATS).
These teams last met back in 2007 in a game dominated by the Steelers at home where they won 37-16 as 10-point chalk; the ‘over’ has cashed in each of the L/2 meetings. Two of Pittsburgh's three losses on the year have come on the road against current division leaders (BAL, HOU), but it has won each of its last six Monday night appearances. San Francisco is 2-1 SU and a perfect 3-0 ATS its L/3 MNF tussles with the lone defeat coming last year at home versus New Orleans; they’re also 6-1 ATS the L/7 times when playing off an outright defeat. The ‘under’ has cashed in each of the 49ers L/6 Week 15 skirmishes.
PICK: PITT/SAN FRAN UNDER
1 UNIT* NHL* Montreal Canadiens @ Boston Bruins: BOSTON BRUINS TO WIN IN REGULATION (-119)
The Montreal Canadiens come into tonight's game with just 3 wins in their last 11 games, and as a result their head coach was fired before Saturday nights game. They've dropped two straight games, both at home, against the Devils and Flyers. On the season Montreal is now just 13-13-7. Boston has won four straight heading into tonight, including a big 6-0 win in Philadelphia Saturday afternoon. Boston is 21-9-1 on the year, and 11-6-1 at home this season. The Bruins continue to get great goaltending from both of their goalies, and are allowing just 1.94 goals against per game (Montreal is allowing 2.55 goals per game). The Bruins are also scoring almost a goal per game higher than the Habs at 3.4 per game, compared to the Habs who are averaging 2.5 per game. Montreal took the first two meetings between these two teams, but Boston won the latest meeting 1-0 in Montreal. Note that the Canadiens are just 1-8 in their last 9 games as an underdog. Boston is 15-2 in their last 17 games following a win. Not much is going right for the Canadiens, and the Bruins are rolling again winning 4 straight. These two teams have a big rivalry and usually play tight games, but tonight I expect the Bruins to kick the Canadiens while they're down. I wouldn't be surprised to see them win this one by a couple goals, but we will take Bruins in regulation.
1 UNIT* NHL* Anaheim Ducks @ Dallas Stars: DALLAS STARS TO WIN (-140)
Although Anaheim has struggled all season, their biggest struggles have come away from home. The Ducks are just 2-9-4 on the road this season and haven't won a road game since October 27th. The Ducks are on a 5 game road trip and have lost their first two games 4-1 in Chicago and 5-3 in Winnipeg. The Ducks are just 9-18-5 on the season. Dallas returns home after taking 3 of 5 games on their road trip, and enjoyed two days off after Friday's loss in New Jersey. The Stars are 9-4-1 on home ice and 18-12-1 on the season. Richard Bachman has stepped in for 4 starts with Lehtonen out and has gone 3-1 with a 2.08 GAA and .931 SV%. Before allowing 6 goals against on Friday, Bachman had allowed just 3 in his previous 3 starts. The Ducks are averaging just 1.73 goals per game on the road, while the Stars are scoring just less than 3 per game at home. Note that the Ducks have just 5 wins in their last 27 games, and are 3-15 in their last 18 games as an underdog. Although Dallas isn't in the best situation coming home from a 5 game road trip, the Ducks are playing their 4th game in 6 nights. Anaheim is just 1-6 in their last 7 games that are the 4th in 6. Also note that the Stars have gone 19-8-1 in these two teams last 28 meetings in Dallas. One of the better home teams this season hosting one of the NHL's worst road teams - I'll take Dallas to get things done at a generous price.
4* #332. Take San Francisco 49ers -2.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers (Monday @ 8:30 pm est).
The Niners were probably looking ahead to this game which explains as to why they had such a poor showing against the Cardinals in their last game. The Niners get up to play the solid teams in the league and this team is a covering machine against the better teams in the league. Note, this is Harbaugh's 1st game on primetime television on Monday Night Football as well. The Niners are 10-2-1 ATS this year and this team has not lost back to back spreads all year as they come off a straight up and ATS loss to the Cardinals. The last time they lost was to the Ravens on the road 16-6 only to bounce-back against the Rams at home by winning 26-0. Now, this team faces a Steelers team that has looked shaky against the likes of Cleveland are starting to have a series of injuries pile up. Don't be surprised to see the Niners win this one in a big way as they look to bounce-back from last week's disappointing performance.
Hot teams
-- Boston lost its last four games, outscoring opponents 19-5.
-- Dallas Stars won three of their last four games.
-- Colorado won its last five home games. Flyers won seven of their last eight games.
-- Red Wings won four of their last five games.
-- Vancouver won eight of its last eleven home games.
Cold teams
-- Kings lost six of their last seven games. Toronto lost six of eight.
-- Canadiens lost eight of their last eleven games.
-- Anaheim lost its last eleven road games.
-- Edmonton lost eight of its last ten games.
-- Minnesota lost its last three games, scoring five goals.
Totals
-- Eight of last ten Los Angeles games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Montreal games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Dallas games stayed under the total.
-- Philly's last five road games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Detroit games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Vancouver games went over the total.
Series records
-- Road team won last three Los Angeles-Toronto games.
-- Canadiens are 7-4 in their last eleven visits to Boston.
-- Dallas Stars are 5-8 in their last 13 games against Anaheim.
-- Avalanche lost 4-2 at Philadelphia in LY's meeting.
-- Red Wings won their last six games against Edmonton.
-- Canucks won four of last five games against Minnesota.
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