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[ConleyPicks]

Scott Shapiro: Wednesday Wins Tampa/Turfway Picks | February 25, 2026

by Scott Shapiro


February is nearly complete, which means horseplayers last chance at our two-month long Wednesday Wins promotion. I am sure most of you by now have registered on the promotional landing page, but for those just checking in, be sure to do so. It is simple. Just bet $50 each Wednesday (February 25) at Tampa Bay Downs and Turfway Park and receive a $10 bonus. I have been taking part and will do so again relying on these horses.


Tampa Bay Downs, Race 6
The pace should be honest in the Wednesday feature in Oldsmar, Florida given the presence of #1 X Y Prime and #2 Tapirs Valor. Potentially 2-1-ML favorite #5 Digital Ops will be close to the pace early as well. This bodes well for second choice #4 Twilight Dancer. The Pennsylvania-bred gelding stretches back out to two-turns after stalking early and tiring late against a strong group of allowance runners going 7-furlongs just ten days ago. Owner/trainer Juan Arriagada wheels this son of Tapiture back quickly suggesting he came out of the last race fine. He has lacked gate speed in his last few starts, but should be full of run late with a solid pace to chase under jockey Antonio Gallardo.

Play: #4 Twilight Dancer (5-2 ML)


Turfway Park, Race 7
It is not often I endorse a Southern California import at Turfway Park, but I like the chances of #4 Sakura Blossom in this second level-allowance at 10-furlongs. The daughter of Classic Empire is winless since March ’24, but has kept solid company in turf and dirt races out west. Leonard Powell is a capable horseman that generally means business when he ships horses out of town that enters a mare that comes in off a third-place effort in the Astra at 1-1/2 miles in a race that fell apart late. Powell attracts Walter Rodriguez. If this gal takes to the surface switch, she should be tough to get by late.

Play: #4 Sakura Blossom (3-1 ML)


Turfway Park, Race 8
My final Wednesday spot play comes in this auction restricted MSW for 3YO fillies at one mile where I like second-time starter #5 Quality View. The Essential Quality filly debuted in an open $50k maiden claimer on January 21 and was arguably best when finishing fourth beaten just a length. The Chris Davis trainee was caught three-wide into the first turn and remained wide throughout, yet got the best of those prominently placed before being run over by a trio of closers. I like that Davis finds a protected spot for the $60k FTK February purchase that comes in off a pair of maintenance drills over this surface since the solid start to her career. Jockey Joe Ramos sticks around.

Play: #5 Quality View (10-1 ML)

[ConleyPicks]

BRIAN W. SPENCER'S DAILY PICKS

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Turfway Park - Race #5

#5 Crystal Frost	She might be a little light while rising in class here, especially considering she was no match for any of those previous special weight groups, but I like the recent form and think she gets the right kind of trip from close range. I think she's an option in a fun race.
#8 Jittier Girl	She went evenly here in December in the debut run, and she probably finds herself in another really nice spying spot with some upside out of that first start. Think she makes a lot of sense.
#9 Princess Woejee	She's an obvious threat after a couple of runner-up finishes over the local footing, but she figures to take some cash again in a spot where I think there's enough compelling form to go looking around for something a bit more appealing on the board.
Race Summary	Crystal Frost steps up after a couple decent efforts in claiming company, but I really don't think her last one leaves her all that far off the better form in here.

Turfway Park - Race #8

#8 Figurine	Continuing my apparent theme of class risers, this one goes in a special weight spot for the new team off the claim. Think the finishing form might hit hard in a race with a lot of even running lines on the page. Turns the tables on some of them who beat her in the debut?
#11 Sudden Squall	She has the pace to find a good spot even from this high draw, and I don't think she needs anything more than that last one to land this. Price could get on the short side, but I wouldn't argue too hard with you here on principle.
#3 Miss Blanco	She chased going short at Churchill in the November debut, but she's got some upside while going long on the new footing, and she should be quick enough to find a good spying spot with this group.
Race Summary	Figurine was beaten by a couple of these in the debut run, but she moved forward nicely at second asking and might be able to exact some revenge today while stepping back up for the new connections. Curious enough about #1 Great Kerry Lee stretching out that I'd want her on at least a backup.

Turfway Park - Race #10

#10 Givemethebeat	Her form has always been all over the place, so it wouldn't be any surprise to see her bounce back off the no-show effort last time out. Her better stuff fits, and I'm hoping she gets back to that good December run -- might be enough to land it if she does.
#5 Taqdeer	She's probably a handful here, but that has also been the case on paper in a couple of the other races on her page -- and she's still here with her winless friends. All that said, she should be able to put away the cheaper pace drawn closer to the rail, and it'd be no surprise to see her drill this crew.
#12 Kyler	Outside spy should be in the cards with some room to stick around better at second asking, and I'm not sure there's a whole lot to be afraid of in here -- a little bit of upside might put her in the frame.
Race Summary	Main question here is if you're leaning on Taqdeer or not -- and outside of the short price, I don't really think that's a bad idea here. The race flow flatters her, and her best form is tough. Givemethebeat has some room to rebound today, and I think she's the main danger to the obvious choice.

[ConleyPicks]

FRANK CARULLI'S DAILY PICKS

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Tampa Bay Downs - Race #1

#1 THEE NEW BEGINNING (9-5)	Chased fast three-peat winner, moves outside in at suitable distance.
#5 MIGUEL’S BELLE (8-5)	Faced next-out repeat winners in her last four starts at the $6,250 level.
#4 TATOR MADE (10-1)	Winless since 2024, gets needed class relief, enters new barn.
Race Summary	THEE NEW BEGINNING chased a wire-to-wire, three-peat winner Allons (6-24, $104k) for a higher claiming tag at 6F and held third. She shortens up to 5-1/2F, returns to her level of claim and can maximize her speed from the rail. Bet to win and place and play 1-5-3, 1-5-4, 1-5-7 and 1-5-8 trifectas.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #2

#3 LOLA’S ROMANCE (3-1)	Chased MSW-dropping fave in 6F dirt sprint two back, enters hot barn.
#6 CALADESI ISLAND (10-1)	Mendelssohn (No. 15 sire in 2025) firster stepped it up for two 4F works.
#4 CAURA (7-5)	Best numbers, short price, should be well-suited to new distance.
Race Summary	LOLA’S ROMANCE got up for second two back at 6F, behind a 4-to-5 winner dropping from the MSW ranks. She was ‘hanging on her left lead’ in deep stretch but looms dangerous on her return to the main track. Trainer Juan Arriagada is 14/3-5-1 with claims since December 31, most at 5-2 or lower odds. Bet to win and place and play 3-4, 3-6, 6-3 and 6-4 exactas box.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #5

#3 QUEEN DANCING (4-1)	Lost ground on first turn, made up ground on second turn, gets in light.
#4 OPERA DE RAVEL (2-1)	Been away almost 2 years after promising debut at Aqueduct for Brown.
#9 POR VOCE (9-2)	Pressed longshot winner to stretch, tired in final sixteenth in shorter route race.
Race Summary	Not sold on anyone in this MSW grass route, so we’ll go with Queen Dancing, who was squeezed back and lost a couple lengths before the first turn, launched what appeared a strong 3-wide rally on the second turn but flattened out in the stretch at the same distance. She sheds 7 pounds with apprentice Taylor Kingsley getting the mount. Bet to win and place.

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turfway Park
PURCHASE

Turfway Park - Race 5	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Daily Double 50 cent Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) / 20 cent Single 6 Jackpot (Races 5-6-7-8-9-10)
Maiden Special • 6 1/2 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $100,000 • Post:7:55P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. (PREFERENCE TO HORSES THAT HAVE NOT STARTED FOR LESS THAN $30,000).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. JITTIER GIRL is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * JITTIER GIRL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. PR INCESS WOEJEE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ONE HAPPY ISLAND: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the d istance/surface. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. MACLEAN'S LULLABY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
8	JITTIER GIRL	6/1	6/1
9	PRINCESS WOEJEE	3/1	6/1
1	ONE HAPPY ISLAND	6/1	6/1
10	MACLEAN'S LULLABY	7/2	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	CLEOPATRA SELENE	2	10/1	Front-runner	83	67	44.6	41.7	26.7
7	SMOKIN HOT BLONDE	7	30/1	Front-runner	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
8	JITTIER GIRL	8	6/1	Stalker	0	0	64.5	75.8	70.3
9	PRINCESS WOEJEE	9	3/1	Stalker	80	74	56.7	71.1	64.6
10	MACLEAN'S LULLABY	10	7/2	Stalker	81	80	50.2	67.4	58.4
13	WILLOWY	13	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	70	64	57.7	54.1	37.1
1	ONE HAPPY ISLAND	1	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	82	76	57.5	70.6	64.1
5	CRYSTAL FROST	5	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	81	72	53.3	49.4	31.4
4	FIRE'S OUT	4	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	77	75	46.5	59.7	48.2
6	COLLEENS SONG	6	12/1	Trailer	0	0	30.3	68.3	52.3
12	ONCE UPON A TIME	12	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	50.0	52.9	35.4
3	WING QUEEN	3	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	70	61	0.0	0.0	0.0
11	SUNNY BATES	11	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Tampa Bay Downs
PURCHASE

Tampa Bay Downs - Race 3	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum) Pick 3 ($.50 minimum) (Races 3-4-5) / Pick 4 ($.50 minimum) (Races 3-4-5-6) Super High 5
Claiming $6,250 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 86 • Purse: $23,000 • Post: 1:47P
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. ; A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 25 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250 RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $5,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * MEGAN'S HONOR: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. JUST RELAX: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. IKIGAI: Today is a sprint and the hor se's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. ROLLING ON: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
5	MEGAN'S HONOR	3/1	5/1
7	JUST RELAX	5/2	6/1
3	IKIGAI	7/2	6/1
1	ROLLING ON	4/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	ROLLING ON	1	4/1	Front-runner	86	81	89.2	74.0	67.5
7	JUST RELAX	7	5/2	Front-runner	83	82	86.2	75.8	70.8
3	IKIGAI	3	7/2	Front-runner	85	81	77.6	78.2	67.2
4	REBEL EMPIRE	4	12/1	Stalker	85	69	62.4	66.2	55.7
5	MEGAN'S HONOR	5	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	83	83	65.4	81.2	78.2
2	OUT WORK'N	2	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	88	64	57.5	45.1	33.1
6	MY MAN WOODY	6	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	86	73	53.2	61.4	53.9

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $13800 Class Rating: 66

FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 DAREDEVIL DOUG 2/1
# 5 FAST TALKIN MAN 3/1
# 8 PIVOT TO THE POWER (GB) 7/2

My pick in this race is DAREDEVIL DOUG. With a solid 63 average speed rating at the distance, seems well suited for today's outing. Lately Bracho has been sizzling which may give the edge to this gelding. Put up a sound Equibase speed fig in the last race. Can run another good one in this affair. FAST TALKIN MAN - May wake up with Lasix change (with second time Lasix) today. Has to be given a chance based on the strong Equibase Speed Figure recorded in the last contest. PIVOT TO THE POWER (GB) - This mare looks good in this race since Reed has a strong win percent with horses going this distance. The speed rating of 68 from her latest race looks quite good in here.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Turf Paradise - Race #8 - Post: 4:48pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,000 Class Rating: 70

Rating:

#2 FORTY NINER GOLD (ML=5/2)


FORTY NINER GOLD - Trainer Fuentes moves this one to a lower class level to face weaker company. Look for a strong effort this time out. Another way to assign class is earnings per start (EPS). This thoroughbred has the topmost in the field. I think he'll be close at the finish. This gelding notched a nice speed figure of 81 in his last contest. That figure should be good enough to triumph today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 POCO YO (ML=4/1), #3 ODE TO MY BRO BOB (ML=9/2), #6 LEVI GONE WILD (ML=5/1),

POCO YO - Hard to play a lower class level horse like this after back to back difficult stretch drives. ODE TO MY BRO BOB - The race on February 12th was versus maiden claimers. Pass on this one in today's event versus the tougher group. LEVI GONE WILD - Run-of-the-mill speed figure last time around the track at Turf Paradise at 4 1/2 furlongs. Don't feel this racer will improve too much in today's event.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - FORTY NINER GOLD - This gelding is ready to do some damage in today's race. He has recorded three excellent Equibase speed figures over his last three events.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #2 FORTY NINER GOLD on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	2 with [3,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	2 with [3,6] with [3,5,6,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	2 with [3,5,6,9] with [3,5,6,9] with [3,5,6,9] Total Cost: $24

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Parx Racing - Race #2 - Post: 12:32pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $21,000 Class Rating: 76

Rating:

#4 LUCCHESI (ML=6/1)
#1 CARNABY (ML=10/1)
#5 RACKET (ML=5/1)
#3 SMOOTH MOTION (ML=5/1)


LUCCHESI - It looks like Rangel had to learn about this gelding on Jan 15th when riding him for the initial time. Back on again today. CARNABY - Ruiz and Flores-Coba perform well when they are put together. It's hard to beat a +249 return on investment for a jockey and trainer. Recent speed figs show dominant pattern of improvement. RACKET - I have to figure that this shorter distance should help this gelding. SMOOTH MOTION - Based on this horse's recent efforts, he should benefit from this shorter distance.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 BACKTRACK (ML=3/1), #2 REAL TALENTED (ML=4/1), #7 MY KID SYD (ML=6/1),

BACKTRACK - There's zip, early speed, and more early zip in this clash. Doesn't look too good for this horse. This mount hasn't been on the track since Jan 22nd. Not even any works. REAL TALENTED - He's almost certainly going to get cooked on the front end. MY KID SYD - Hard to bet on at 6/1 odds after the two most recent outings.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #4 LUCCHESI to win if you can get at least 9/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $32900 Class Rating: 66

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 126 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 PRINCESS BLAME 9/5
# 4 CLOSE UP 5/2
# 1 ZETA JONES 5/1

I think PRINCESS BLAME is a decent choice. Brown has one of the best winning percentages in this group with entries running at this distance and surface. Looks very strong versus this group and will most likely be one of the leaders. In this field, this horse is in the upper half of earnings per start in dirt sprint races. CLOSE UP - Her 55 average has this filly with among the best Equibase Speed Figures in here. This filly looks good in here since Peltroche has a strong winning percentage with horses going this distance. ZETA JONES - The average class rating alone makes this one a definite contender. Has solid speed figs and has to be considered for a bet for this race.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at The Meadows

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 12
5	5	SWAN MAN	7/2	Johnston, Shawn - 6	410.56
7	7	SPLURGE ON UNCLE	4/1	Merriman, Aaron - 20	408.87
1	1	GQ HANOVER	20/1	Irvine, Justin - 13	404.67
2	2	RT WATCH ME	10/1	Neal, Eric - 4	383.87
3	3	MY MAN MAHOMES	4/1	Walters, Justin - 7	363.01
8	8	MEXICAN TEQUILA	10/1	Zendt, Brian - 8	359.37
4	4	ANYWHO HANOVER	5/2	Brown, Brady - 8	358.07
6	6	P L SLIM	20/1	Wrenn, Ronnie Jr - 24	355.39

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Monticello Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 8
1	1	WOODSIDE GENIUS	9/2	Dibenedetto, Kyle - 16	533.08
5	5	THE LAST CHAPTER	10/1	Franco, Rey - 50	529.89
4	4	ACKLES HANOVER	3/1	Merton, Gregory - 29	497.82
2	2	IN MY DREAMS	4/1	Merton, Michael - 21	475.42
7	7	DOO WOP KID	7/2	Schwartz, Alan - 6	463.23
3	3	FATHER MIKE	6/1	Krivelin, Robert - 11	445.51
6	6	DC ANNA	5/2	Aldrich, Bruce Jr - 14	437.97

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[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Rosecroft Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 13 - Post: 11:15 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 81 - Purse:$7500 - MARYLAND PREFERRED NON-WINNERS $4,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR $30,000 IN 2025-26

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 4 SHETHINKSISTILCARE 5/2
# 6 AMERICAN ARTIST K 7/2
# 3 FIGHT LIKE MIKE 6/1

The choice in here is SHETHINKSISTILCARE. The panel of smart guys knows that speed is the key in harness racing. This nice horse will unlock our way to a nice triumph. Good for a win wager just off the fantastic prior class markings. Have to like this horse. Had one of the most solid speed ratings of the field of horses in his last contest. I'd recommend using in your wagers. AMERICAN ARTIST K - Pressel's entrant takes a move up in class. It tells us this, gelding's in a spot to win. This horse has a nose for the wire, just look at his better than average win pct. FIGHT LIKE MIKE - Getting a good feeling about this gelding. Could surprise this time. He looks formidable in this outing and should find a way to take advantage of favorable pace markings.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Miami Valley

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Post: 6:06 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 76 - Purse:$10500 - FILLIES & MARES N/W $2001 LAST 4 STARTS

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 8 JK'S SHINING STAR 6/1
# 5 IMPRESSIVE GIRL 2/1
# 6 ABSOLUT PEACH 7/2

JK'S SHINING STAR most definitely appears to be the standardbred to beat in here. A very good play in here as she has one of the highest winning percentages in the field of horses as well as terrific credentials all around. Most likely think these two have some sort of connection going. Luna in the cart means a competitive chance to get the triumph. IMPRESSIVE GIRL - Can't overlook based on speed ratings which have been fantastic (77 avg) of late. Had one of the most competitive speed figures of the group of animals in her last competition. A good idea to use in your bets. ABSOLUT PEACH - The 79 avg class figure may give this mare a distinct edge in the group of horses.

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Robert Morris -9 over Detroit