Tuesday 3/3/26 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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[ConleyPicks]

BRIAN W. SPENCER'S DAILY PICKS

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Will Rogers Downs - Race #3

#1 Palace Rock	Price probably isn't going to be much, and he's short on excuses at this point, but there isn't a ton of speed in this short field, and he should find a perfect spot right up near the top.
#3 Red Hot Shot	He might be an OK fit at the level, and he has enough tactical sprint pace to think he's going to be up on the splits while stretching out. The logical alternative.
#5 Titanium Man	Nothing to write home about through four starts, but he has been in with some better groups than he's going to find here. Suppose he's one of the ones, but I can't find a particularly confident angle.
Race Summary	Palace Rock should be in a perfect spot early while sitting right up on the likely stretchout splits of Red Hot Shot, and I think his baseline stuff does the trick today.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #8

#5 Dixie Penny	Think she's the right one, but it's a fun race with a couple of horses who have similar forward styles. Think the better stuff does the job.
#6 Smooth Pebble	Speed just handled a similar kind of crew, and another forward trip might give her a chance to repeat over a track that played pretty nicely to speed and pressing types yesterday.
#2 Miss Escapade	She could be sitting in a good spot right in behind the top pair while watching things unfold, and she's in the mix if she bounces back off the slightly flat run last out.
Race Summary	Dixie Penny and Smooth Pebble look like the right pair, but I think Dixie Penny has one or two more gears in her pocket than 'Pebble, and that might be the difference.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #9

#8 Njustlikethat	He has tables to turn out of the flat run last time out, but he's making his second start off the claim with a November race on his page that would hit pretty hard here if he manages to get back to it. Thinking he might be ready for better today.
#4 Magical Max	I don't know. This is not a good race, and his baseline stuff makes him a handful, but he's tough to trust at what is probably not an especially appealing price.
#9 Busy Bear	Nothing serious through two starts with special weight company, but he at least flashed a touch of chasing pace in the debut run, and something like that could at least leave him in a decent spot into the turn with a bad bunch.
Race Summary	Blinkers could help Njustlikethat after a flat run last time out, and the price should be OK to see if he can bring something better today.

[ConleyPicks]

FRANK CARULLI'S DAILY PICKS

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Turf Paradise - Race #4

#7 MRAZEK’S OLD DREAM (3	Diodoro acquisition switches to turf off encouraging 1M try last out.
#3 ELLIE MOORE (6-1)	Tactical speed comes in handy, steady turf numbers until troubled run in latest.
#8 CAITLIN FEVER (4-1)	Made middle move to clear stretch lead but got caught as the 3-to-5 favorite.
Race Summary	MRAZEK’S OLD DREAM, unplaced in five starts on the turf, earned her top speed figure in a one-mile race on the Santa Anita main track last out. She changes surfaces again, changes barns and changes equipment (blinkers on) upon arrival from California. Her sire was a multiple stakes-winning dirt sprinter and an allowance winner on turf. Bet to win and place and play 7-3 and 7-8 exactas.

Turf Paradise - Race #6

#3 NAVAL ESCORT (8-1)	Needs some help up front to notch first win since 2024 stakes route.
#5 WINE AND WHISKEY (5-1)	Plenty of back-class to summon, should sit ideal stalking trip off layoff.
#7 BENNY BUCKETS (3-1)	Appears rounding to a better effort than his last go-round on the main track.
Race Summary	NAVAL ESCORT’S late-running style could lead to an upset alert in the same spot where he burned money in four consecutive starts. He earned minor awards against Big Spin, a next-out repeater at the $8,000 level, and Enos Slaughter (7-45, $161k) and should get an ideal pace flow to rally into. Bet to win and place and play a 3-5-7 exacta box.

Turf Paradise - Race #8

#4 CLASSIC CINEMA (7-5)	Can’t go beyond in current form at three-peat distance.
#8 BIYOMBO (8-1)	Continues to turn heads in the morning, class drop could be the answer.
#7 ALWAYS ON CAY (4-1)	‘Strong finish’ for second behind top one, barn going well.
Race Summary	CLASSIC CINEMA blazed along to win four of his last five sprints by a combined 14 lengths on the front end. Hard to look past him in this spot, so look to a couple exactas to maximize value. Make a flat win bet and play 4-7 and 4-8 exactas.

[ConleyPicks]

Jeremy Plonk: Mahoning Valley Bet $100, Get $10 Picks | Tuesday, March 3, 2026

by Jeremy Plonk


The “Lucky Strides” promotion this March at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet offers a $10 bonus when you bet $100 or more at select tracks each Tuesday and Thursday. Mahoning Valley will be the track spotlighted for this Tuesday. Here’s how I’ll approach that card with the help of the Betmix Angler database.


Mahoning Valley: Race 3

#5 Chidera (12-1 morning line odds) makes her career debut and lands jockey Chelsea Keiser. She’s been dynamite in local sprints the past month, winning 23% with a whopping $2.40 ROI for every $1 bet. Chidera has a bullet workout from the gate for this, and a trainer in Ivan Vazquez who posted $34 and $37 debut winners last year among just 8 such bids. Win-place #5. Exacta key-box 5 with 1,2,4.


Mahoning Valley: Race 8

#3 Duo (8-1 morning line odds) was one of 4 exacta finishers from just 7 starters during February for the Michelle Winters barn at Mahoning Valley. She had a 9-2 winner along with 5-1, 8-1 and 16-1 runners-up while her barn consistently outran its odds. Win-place #3. Exacta key-box 3 with 2,6,7.

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise
PURCHASE

Turf Paradise - Race 7	$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 7-8)
Optional Claiming $40,000 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 4 and up • CR: 107 • Purse: $21,000 • Post: 4:15P
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON $20,000 TWICE SINCE SEPTEMBER 3, 2025 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON $20,000 ONCE SINCE DECEMBER 3, 2025 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, STATE BRED , OR TRIAL OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $40,000. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE FEBRUARY 3 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. (RAIL SET AT 14 FEET).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * EYE ON RY: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/ surface. KENNEBEC: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SILENT RUNNER: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. ZOFFARELLI (IRE): Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. STAMP MY PASSPORT: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
1	EYE ON RY	10/1	5/1
6	KENNEBEC	7/2	7/1
3	SILENT RUNNER	4/1	7/1
2	ZOFFARELLI (IRE)	8/1	8/1
5	STAMP MY PASSPORT	5/2	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	STAMP MY PASSPORT	5	5/2	Front-runner	105	99	107.0	96.4	89.4
3	SILENT RUNNER	3	4/1	Front-runner	104	108	101.4	101.4	89.4
7	SALINE RIVER	7	5/1	Stalker	100	95	98.2	94.8	89.8
2	ZOFFARELLI (IRE)	2	8/1	Stalker	100	100	97.5	95.7	86.2
8	BENANDONNER	8	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	94	96	73.0	82.2	69.2
1	EYE ON RY	1	10/1	Trailer	110	105	85.4	103.0	94.0
6	KENNEBEC	6	7/2	Trailer	101	102	73.6	95.6	91.6
4	LLOYDS LOGIC	4	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	108	96	79.3	90.8	78.3

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing
PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race 9	Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 9-10-11) / Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta 10 cent Superfecta
Stakes • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 74 • Purse: $75,000 • Post: 3:41P
MAIN LINE S. - FOR FILLIES THREE-YEAR-OLDS. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $50 EACH WHICH SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION. A SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATION FEE OF $250 MAY BE MADE UP TO THE TIME OF ENTRY. $100 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX, $100 ADDITIONAL TO START, WITH $75,000 GUARANTEED TO BE DIVIDED*: 60% TO THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 6% TO FOURTH, AND 4% TO FIFTH. *ALL STARTERS, EXCLUDING STARTERS FINISHING FIRST THROUGH FIFTH, SHALL BE PAID $1,000 EACH AND THE REMAINING PURSE MONIES WILL THEN BE DIVIDED AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. WEIGHT: 123 LBS. WINNERS OF A SWEEPSTAKES IN 2025-2026 TO CARRY AN ADDITIONAL 2 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $30,000 AT A MILE OR OVER IN 2025-2026 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (MAIDEN, CLAIMING AND STARTER RACES NOT CONSIDERED), MAIDENS ALLOWED 5 LBS. STARTERS TO BE NAMED THROUGH THE ENTRY BOX BY THE USUAL TIME OF CLOSING. A FIELD OF 14 HORSES WILL BE DRAWN WITH THE PREFERENCE GIVEN AS FOLLOWS: GRADED/GROUP STAKES WINNERS IN ORDER (I-II-III), STAKES WINNERS, GRADED/GROUP STAKES PLACED HORSES IN ORDER (I-II-III), STAKES

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. HALO HOTTIE is the Lone Front-runner of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * LAW SCHOOL: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sp rint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. OUR GOLDEN GATOR: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SMART PHILLY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. IVY GIRL: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
1	LAW SCHOOL	2/1	3/1
3	OUR GOLDEN GATOR	3/1	9/1
8	SMART PHILLY	8/1	9/1
2	IVY GIRL	5/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	HALO HOTTIE	5	8/1	Front-runner	61	55	59.7	50.2	39.2
6	SPOONBILL	6	8/1	Stalker	66	61	73.0	60.7	52.7
4	RANTING AND RAVING	4	15/1	Stalker	63	47	68.5	49.7	35.2
1	LAW SCHOOL	1	2/1	Stalker	82	80	66.8	69.7	67.2
7	COURAGE ON TAP	7	10/1	Stalker	59	54	64.9	51.4	39.4
8	SMART PHILLY	8	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	74	65	61.5	62.5	55.5
2	IVY GIRL	2	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	71	68	58.2	55.3	48.3
3	OUR GOLDEN GATOR	3	3/1	Trailer	75	68	64.9	64.9	56.4

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Will Rogers Downs - Race #5 - Post: 3:08pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,000 Class Rating: 41

Rating:

#8 BOUGIE LIKE (ML=6/1)
#1 TIZZLIN (ML=5/1)


BOUGIE LIKE - Huckaby is back for another event today after sitting atop this horse for the 1st time on February 10th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. This speed freak should benefit from today's shorter distance. Mare is a few starts into a come back here. Should give a big performance today. Racing at a similar level as last race on February 10th at Will Rogers Downs. I think Buehrer has found a good spot for her, and I like her chances right here. TIZZLIN - The rider/conditioner duo of Kimes and Dunlap has a strong return on investment together. Filly will add blinkers to the equipment package today. That often leads to an improved performance.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 MARITUDE (ML=2/1), #5 PRETTY IRENE (ML=3/1), #7 CASHOUT CAROL (ML=8/1),

MARITUDE - Hasn't been getting close at all recently. CASHOUT CAROL- Awfully tough to bet on this horse when she hasn't been showing any signs of life recently. Hard to recommend any horse with deteriorating speed figures of 41/15/3.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#8 BOUGIE LIKE is the play if we get odds of 7/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $11100 Class Rating: 83

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE MARCH 3. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 3 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 BOLDNESS 9/2
# 2 MSHINDI 8/1
# 3 BEYOND THE BEND 4/1

My selection for this event is BOLDNESS. His 73 average has this gelding with among the top speed figures in this competition. Has very strong Equibase Class Figures relative to this group of animals - worth a look. Norris has this gelding travelling well and is a solid pick based on the very strong speed figures recorded in sprint races recently. MSHINDI - With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Rivera will most likely have this gelding in excellent position to win the race. Could best this group based on the Equibase Speed Fig - 68 - of his last affair. BEYOND THE BEND - Will almost certainly come out solid - I have liked the way this gelding has moved sharply to the front end recently.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 9 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 48

FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 MAGICAL MAX 8/5
# 12 MERLIN THE RED 30/1
# 2 SNAZZY MAN 30/1

MAGICAL MAX is my choice. Like the finishes in the last few contests. Recent numbers for the jockey - 19 win percent - make this gelding stand out in this group of horses in this race. Ran a very strong last race.SNAZZY MAN - Should be given a chance as he drops to compete against this easier field. Appears to have a formidable class edge based on the recent company kept.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #8 - Post: 3:31pm - Allowance -8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $33,700 Class Rating: 74

Rating:

#3 DUO (ML=8/1)
#6 LUCKY'S PRIZE (ML=4/1)
#4 DR SPIRITO (ML=7/2)


DUO - This gelding is in excellent physical condition right now. Ran second last time out and comes back quickly. LUCKY'S PRIZE - Vlaun brings him back again. I advise you stay with this live gelding. DR SPIRITO - Bowen was aboard this gelding last time out and was impressed enough to take the animal right back. When Fadlovich gives Bowen a leg up on any magnificent animal, you know full well that with their winning pct you have more than a fighting chance. This campaigner coming off a nice effort in the last 30 days is a contender in my book.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 MUSIC JEWEL (ML=2/1), #7 SHELTOWEES ROCKET (ML=6/1),

MUSIC JEWEL - Awfully difficult to invest in this entrant when he hasn't been showing any fighting spirit recently. You should normally gamble against favorites that haven't raced or show no activity in the morning over the last two to three weeks. SHELTOWEES ROCKET - Will not be easy for this entrant to beat this group off of that last speed rating. Improbable to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class rating, so put him on the vulnerable contenders list.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#3 DUO is going to be the play if we are getting 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Dover Downs

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 11
2	2	ALIMONY MIKE	5/2	Tetrick, Tim - 25	492.71
9	9	BELLSFORALL	7/2	Davis, Allan - 12	471.32
4	4	PIERRE IN PARIS	9/2	Gingras, Yannick - 17	464.38
5	5	SOUTHWIND PYTHON	12/1	Beyer, Troy - 8	449.87
3	3	WATCH ME GOO THIS	6/1	Foster, Russell - 13	443.57
8	8	EVANS PER FECT WAR	10/1	Morgan, Anthony - 17	434.45
6	6	SIR HISS	8/1	Green, Jason - 5	429.93
1	1	GRANNYSGONECRAZY	15/1	Cole, Mike - 8	411.54
7	7	MISTER MELLBY	12/1	Lynch, Jason - 15	406.15

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Northfield Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 14 - Post: 10:46 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 79 - Purse:$5300 - NON WINNERS $1500 IN LAST 4 STARTS THAT ARE N/W $5000 IN 2026. AE: N/W $500 PER START IN 2026. NO. 9 STARTS FROM 2ND TIER NORTHFIELD

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 9 HEAT CHECK 3/2
# 1 DCROCKINMOONDANCER 2/1
# 6 LAKESIDE BUDDY 4/1

The consensus today is that HEAT CHECK is the one to beat. Has very nice speed figures and clearly has to be thought of for a wager in this one. This entrant looks strong considering the high class ratings. Don't toss out of any exotics. With a nice 74 TrackMaster SR last time out, will positively be a factor in this competition. DCROCKINMOONDANCER - Reason to like this gelding as he has in the sulky one of the best drivers in win percentage over the last 30 days. The group will always throw in a solid standardbred from the 1 position here at Northfield Park, definitely worth a look. LAKESIDE BUDDY - Worth a close look here on the basis of the numbers in the speed rating department alone. This interesting entrant has shown us some ability in the past, just look at the 83 avg class rating. Should play well in this one.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Miami Valley

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 12
4	4	LITTLE BIT TUFF	20/1	Miller, David - 17	457.90
1	1	TOP SHELF SHERRY	7/2	Hanners, Austin - 8	444.44
5	5	TELLME U R MYDATE	4/1	Page, Chris - 17	439.13
2	2	THISISHOWEYROCK	12/1	Miller, Brett - 14	435.71
7	7	ROBINTHEFIRE	2/1	Smith, Trevor - 8	425.74
8	8	CRUISINOVERFIRE	8/1	Smith, Tyler - 10	419.37
9	9	VINTAGE ACE	20/1	Kauffman, Kayne - 8	404.88
6	6	GEORGE'S PICK	20/1	Holliday, Ken - 6	382.75
3	3	BELLAS FIRST MOOSS	6/1	Miller, Josiah - 16	320.73

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Yonkers Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Post: 7:25 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 82 - Purse:$15000 - F& M CLAIMING ALLOWANCE $25,000

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 4 FIGHT NOT FLIGHT 8/5
# 5 KISSIN JOE 5/2
# 1 STAY HAPPY 5/1

The pick in this one is FIGHT NOT FLIGHT. This nice horse may have some hidden form, a top prize would be a pleasant surprise. Many bettors know speed is of the utmost importance. This interesting entrant has credentials with a 82 avg ranking. The handicapping team noted a very promising performance out of this fine animal last time. Hoping for a duplicate of that to dominate. KISSIN JOE - The handicapping group noted a clear-cut affair out of this race horse last time. Hoping for a duplicate of that to dominate. STAY HAPPY - This horse has a nose for the wire, just look at her better than average win percentage.

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: NY Knicks -2.5 over Toronto