Wednesday 3/4/26 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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[ConleyPicks]

BRIAN W. SPENCER'S DAILY PICKS

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Charles Town - Race #3

#1 Gogo's Mojo	I like the rise here after a decent finishing after in the debut when way too far back early in that cheaper claiming spot. There might be just enough potential speed lined up in here to keep the splits fair enough to see if this one can outkick them late. Don't think she's a huge reach here.
#2 Zephina	She ran well going short in the debut when a distant second, but that gives her some decent upside while stretching out at second asking, and I could see her finding a really perfect spying spot with this crew.
#5 Miss Fortunate	She flashed a little pace and stayed on well in the first try around two turns, and any step forward off that run would probably make her a handful here.
Race Summary	Gogo's Mojo steps up into an OK spot for the special-weight level, but she has some upside in the second start and almost has to be a touch more tactical today. Like that there are two works since the first start.

Charles Town - Race #5

#5 Candygram Cat	She hustled early and stuck around OK in the debut run behind an easy winner, and I'm thinking that is going to translate well against this group at second asking. Reasonable upside makes her tough.
#2 Chanterelle	She ran pretty well in her debut last year -- something like that might get the job done -- but she has tailed off in a pair of starts since then. Not sure what to do with her.
#6 God's Pride	Debuter isn't landing in the deepest spot we'll ever see for the local level, so take a look at her on the tote and track ahead of this.
Race Summary	Handful of interesting horses in here with some question marks, but I feel at least a little bit of confidence that Candygram Cat's debut run is going to hold up here after chasing a runaway winner.

Charles Town - Race #7

#5 York Tavern	I like his honest finishing form, and there are a couple of speed types drawn outside of him who may battle early and ensure an honest pace. Run of the race?
#1 Nola Boss	Tactical speed has been in good form and caught a winner who is also in pretty sharp form in that last one, and I think those last couple of races keep her in the frame while trying this kind of group.
#2 Just For The Money	Think he's going to be an OK fit with this group, but I just don't have a really good feel for what kind of effort I think he's going to bring over the local course. Wouldn't argue with you -- I just can't piece it together here tonight.
Race Summary	York Tavern is admittedly a bit tough to trust -- he has reliable form that has resulted in nothing but underneath shares on his entire page. Still, he's honest and figures to show up, and I think the race shape flatters his style today.

[ConleyPicks]

FRANK CARULLI'S DAILY PICKS

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Tampa Bay Downs - Race #1

#3 EL OREJON (7-5)	Looks to remain perfect at distance, class hike disguised in this field.
#1 GIGGITY (4-1)	Ascending speed figs before maiden win, like to complete exacta.
#2 EFATA (8-1)	Well-bet but bumped around against ‘Orejon,’ price goes up.
Race Summary	EL OREJON ran against a speed-favoring bias when second two starts ago, then prevailed after a long stretch battle to improve to 2-for-2 at 7F. He steps up in claiming price for his new barn but probably meets a weaker field than he faced last out. Bet to win and place and play 3-1 and 3-2 exactas.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #2

#5 HEY RIVER (5-1)	Parx invader ended year-long winless drought with top speed fig of career.
#2 CONSPIRACY FACT (3-1)	Joins class droppers in deep field, finished 1-2 in 19 of 44 starts.
#1 MAYHEMINTHEPALACE (5-2)	Big move, big number in 6F win at Gulfstream, overmatched in latest.
Race Summary	HEY RIVER shook a duel at the half-mile marker, opened a 6-length lead and held safe a trio of deep closers to win with the top speed figure of his 25-race career. He wore blinkers for the first time and is well-spotted to repeat in pursuit of $100,000 in earnings. Bet to win and place and play 5-1 and 5-2 exactas.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #5

#2 JIBILIAN (4-1)	Had good set-up, rallied widest to blow past the field for second win at this level.
#7 SON OF A SLEW (5-1)	Held off a trio of slow starters to win on the class rise off the claim.
#5 MAKOA (5-2)	Steady mid-60 Beyer type in grass routes changes riders again.
Race Summary	JIBILIAN, unhurried to the final turn, swept past the field 6-wide and kicked away in the stretch for his second turf victory at one mile. He has adapted well to off-the-pace tactics and there’s no reason to think he will be in winning contention again. Bet to win and place and play 1-5 and 1-7 exactas.

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise
PURCHASE

Turf Paradise - Race 1	$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 1-2) / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3)
Optional Claiming $25,000 • 220 Yards • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 82 • Purse: $16,600 • Post:1:15P
QUARTER HORSE 220Y, FOR ARIZONA BRED FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE SEPTEMBER 4 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 4 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. WEIGHT, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 (AN ADDITIONAL 20% HAS BEEN ADDED TO ALL OVERNIGHT ARIZONA BRED RACES FROM THE ARIZONA HORSE BREEDERS FUND. THIS MONEY WILL BE PAID DIRECTLY TO THE HORSE OWNER THRU THE ATBA NOT THRU TURF PARADISE. CONTACT ATBA FOR DETAILS.)(QUARTER HORSES PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * WHISKEY WES: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. AV HESADASHAIR: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designa tion. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. SAY SOMTHING: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CUZ CARTEL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
4	WHISKEY WES	6/5	3/1
3	AV HESADASHAIR	5/1	9/2
2	SAY SOMTHING	5/2	8/1
5	CUZ CARTEL	6/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	LIGHTNING GIRL	1	7/2	Average	82	62	5.3	0.0	0.0
2	SAY SOMTHING	2	5/2	Average	76	77	4.0	0.0	0.0
3	AV HESADASHAIR	3	5/1	Fast	83	80	1.5	0.0	0.0
4	WHISKEY WES	4	6/5	Fast	86	82	2.2	0.0	0.0
5	CUZ CARTEL	5	6/1	Average	74	73	5.8	0.0	0.0

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Tampa Bay Downs
PURCHASE

Tampa Bay Downs - Race 3	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum) Pick 3 ($.50 minimum) (Races 3-4-5) / Pick 4 ($.50 minimum) (Races 3-4-5-6) Super High 5
Claiming $5,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $21,000 • Post: 1:48P
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE SEPTEMBER 4. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Trailer. LUCKY CURLIN is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * LUCKY CURLIN: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. CONSPIRACY FACT: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. MAYHEMINTHEPALACE: Horse ranks in the top three in Trac kMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
6	LUCKY CURLIN	8/1	4/1
2	CONSPIRACY FACT	3/1	4/1
1	MAYHEMINTHEPALACE	5/2	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	HEY RIVER	5	5/1	Front-runner	71	74	55.7	70.6	58.1
2	CONSPIRACY FACT	2	3/1	Alternator/Front-runner	84	81	71.4	77.8	73.8
7	OFF TO THE RACES	7	20/1	Stalker	81	76	53.6	65.2	54.2
1	MAYHEMINTHEPALACE	1	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	84	89	57.6	70.0	66.0
3	NORFIE	3	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	84	75	38.2	68.6	60.1
6	LUCKY CURLIN	6	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	93	85	59.7	90.3	84.8
4	SAYBROOK	4	4/1	Alternator/Non-contender	84	74	74.2	67.6	59.1

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #4 - Post: 1:39pm - Claiming -6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,900 Class Rating: 77

Rating:

#6 PROSECUTOR (ML=9/2)
#3 NEED TO KNOW BASIS (ML=3/1)


PROSECUTOR - This is a classic 'Lone Front-runner' scenario. If Diaz gets him out of the gate cleanly it'll likely be smooth sailing. Lets try to beat the morning-line favorites with this gelding. Just missed last out, but ran a respectable race. Ran a lackluster race at Mahoning Valley Race Cour in the last race. Racing on a fast track puts this gelding at the top of my contenders roll call. NEED TO KNOW BASIS - This gelding hasn't won in his last three starts, but he did win on September 11th against better at 6 furlongs. It looks like Barbaran had to be more familiar with this gelding on Feb 12th when riding him for the initial time. Back on board again today. I like that latest race on February 12th at Mahoning Valley Race Cour where he ended up second. Three consecutive improved speed figs (58-71-76) make this horse a strong contender.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 KINDERHOOK (ML=2/1), #7 ELLIOT THE DRAGON (ML=5/1), #2 ENVELOPE PLEASE (ML=6/1),

KINDERHOOK - You should normally wager against low-odds horses that haven't raced or show no activity in the morning over the last two to three weeks. ELLIOT THE DRAGON - This gelding recorded a speed figure in his last race which probably isn't good enough in today's race. ENVELOPE PLEASE - Don't believe this steed will make a winning move in today's race. That last speed fig was disappointing when compared with today's Equibase class figure.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - NEED TO KNOW BASIS - Racing pattern would suggest this horse is in good shape for today's race. Should do well.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 PROSECUTOR is going to be the play if we are getting 8/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 9 - SO - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $30000 Class Rating: 85

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $10,000 OR LESS SINCE FEBRUARY 24, 2024 OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. WEIGHT, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000 WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING IN THEIR LAST TWO STARTS WILL CARRY AN ADDITIONAL 3LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 UNSOLVED MYSTERY 5/2
# 5 OUR UPTOWN GIRL 9/5
# 3 JUMP A FOX 6/1

UNSOLVED MYSTERY seems to be the bet in here. She has been running soundly and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the most favorable in this field. Betancourt has one of the most competitive winning percentages in this group with entries running at this distance and surface. Will almost certainly come out strong - I have liked the way this mare has moved quickly to the lead recently. OUR UPTOWN GIRL - Put up a strong Equibase Speed Figure in the last race. Can run another good one in this contest. Have to consider solely on class, with some of the most competitive class numbers of this field. JUMP A FOX - Ran a very strong last race. Boasts formidable Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when put alongside the rest of this field.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Allowance - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $34100 Class Rating: 87

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, WAIVER CLAIMING, RESTRICTED OR STATE BRED RACES OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JANUARY 4 ALLOWED 4 LBS. W V A

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 PRINCE PRANCEALOT 9/5
# 4 BEJUCO 12/1
# 1 NOLA BOSS 8/1

PRINCE PRANCEALOT has a formidable shot to take this race. Has run well when running a dirt sprint race. Put up a strong Equibase Speed Figure last time out. The average class fig alone makes this entrant a solid choice. BEJUCO - Carpio has well above average profits at this distance/surface. Shows strong speed figures on average overall when put alongside the rest of this field. NOLA BOSS - This gelding has a very good win percent in dirt sprint races. Garnered a solid speed rating in the latest race. Can run another good one in this affair.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Turfway Park - Race #7 - Post: 8:55pm - Maiden Special - 10.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $100,000 Class Rating: 89

Rating:

#5 ABBI FEDE (ML=7/2)
#1 NYQUISTADOR (ML=4/1)


ABBI FEDE - Lone speed horses can be tough to run down. Here's a lone front-runner facing sluggish sorts today. This gelding is in nice condition, having run a nice race on Feb 11th, finishing second. NYQUISTADOR - This gelding is in fine condition, having run a nice race on Feb 18th, finishing second. Rider hops right back atop after getting to know the race horse by riding last out. That's always a good tip. This gelding's last figure registered on Feb 18th is number one in last race speed ratings. Horse has improved at least two speed rating points in last 2 races. I look for that trend to continue right here in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 RAPOPORT (ML=5/2), #7 KICKING CLEAR (ML=3/1), #8 FLY GUY MICK (ML=6/1),

RAPOPORT - This come from behinder will probably be rolling down the lane much too late to make a mark in this affair. KICKING CLEAR - The extended vacation since November 20th is somewhat discouraging. This colt registered a speed figure in his last affair which probably isn't good enough in today's race. FLY GUY MICK - Caution must be used since front wraps were new equipment on February 11th.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - NYQUISTADOR - Performance last out was dominant, even though it was second place effort. Was well clear of the show horse. My calculations say only a slight improvement is needed today to move up one and into the winner's circle.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #5 ABBI FEDE on top if we're getting at least 2/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Dover Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Post: 6:10 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 65 - Purse:$8000 - FILLIES AND MARES NON-WINNERS 2

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 1 SAY ITS NOT SWEET 5/2
# 5 LOTTO LOU 8/1
# 4 NOVA'S BABY GIRL 12/1

We've got a gut feel SAY ITS NOT SWEET is going to get the top prize. This fine animal may have some hidden form, a victory would be a pleasant surprise. Overall markings appear very nice. Can't throw out at this point. With a very good 66 TrackMaster Speed Rating last time out, will quite possibly be a factor in this contest. LOTTO LOU - More wins than the expected average have been achieved by contenders lining up behind the 5 post at Dover Downs. NOVA'S BABY GIRL - Could surprise us at a reasonable price. Don't leave out.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at The Meadows

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Post: 2:45 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 82 - Purse:$6400 - CD ALL AGES NW $1750 L4 STS WHO ARE NW`S OF $750 P.S. IN 2025-2026 OR 2026 WITH 3 OR MORE STS. AE: F& M NW $600 P.S. IN 2026 W/ 5 OR MORE STS

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 2 SADODAKA 9/2
# 3 REDWHITE N GOO 3/1
# 7 GO BOOM 5/2

We've got a gut feel SADODAKA is going to get the trip to the winner's circle. This competition could be controlled by this mare. One look at the avgerage speed fig will prove that. Enters this race with good TrackMaster class numbers as compared to the field of starters - worth a look. This standardbred achieved a good speed rating last time out. Looks to be racing sharply to come right back. REDWHITE N GOO - A formidable class horse should not be be forgotten. With an avg class figure of 84 all signs say it's go time. Is a very compelling choice given the 79 TrackMaster SR from his most recent gathering. GO BOOM - May be the most solid in the group here, showing really good figures of late. Average speed is a solid 87. With one of the best drivers in terms of crossing the wire first, don't count this horse out of the competition.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Monticello Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 1
2	2	VEL LARRY	5/2	Merton, Gregory - 29	463.81
5	5	MYSTERY DRAGON	3/1	Merton, Michael - 21	458.19
1	1	SAMMY B HAPPY	4/1	Yarock, David - 5	456.90
6	6	THIRD EDITION	7/2	Silvestri, Ralph III - 5	431.07
4	4	CR DUDLEY	10/1	Harp, Rick - 3	426.33
3	3	CHOICE IS YOURS	5/1	Carter, William - 10	411.17
7	7	BUELLER	8/1	Merton, Thomas - 7	397.34

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Miami Valley

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 5
3	3	NELLI UP	5/2	Page, Chris - 16	494.31
4	4	MY NEXT CHAPTER	2/1	Miller, David - 17	470.02
6	6	COUNTRYOFMARS	7/2	Kauffman, Kayne - 8	469.97
1	1	FULL MOON HOWL	9/1	Beattie, Jason - 3	467.56
7	7	ROYALTIMESTWO	20/1	Miller, Brett - 14	466.62
5	5	CALCULATED CONCEPT	20/1	Smith, Trevor - 8	455.29
8	8	WHAT A BUCKEYE	12/1	Smith, Tyler - 10	452.90
2	2	PETERBUTTERCUPCAKE	8/1	Ater, Kyle - 0	449.37

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Atlanta +1 over Milwaukee

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Razor Sharp


YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR WEDNESDAY: NEW MEXICO (CBB) -8 over Colorado St