Saturday 3/7/26 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**ConleyPicks** · 03-07-2026, 07:21 AM

Meet the Contenders: Saturday’s San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita

by Jeremy Plonk

The San Felipe Stakes is as old as Santa Anita itself, and if 2025 winner and Preakness victor Journalism was any indication, as strong as ever. The 1-1/16 miles race will be part of the Santa Anita Handicap Day undercard on Saturday and features an eclectic field of stretch-outs, come-backers and state-bred crossovers.

Horseplayers with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet take advantage of up to a $10 money-back special promo on Triple Crown prep race win bets, featuring Saturday’s Fan Felipe at Santa Anita as well as the same-day Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs. Get up to $10 back if your win bet finishes second or third when you bet with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet.

Let’s meet the contenders for the San Felipe Stakes (Race 8):

#1-FLASHY FRITZ: Claimed for $25,000 last out and moved to the Dan Blacker barn, this 1-for-9 gelding by Travers winner Stay Thirsty will be seriously tested for class. Cal-bred finished sixth in the King Glorious Stakes at Los Alamitos in December in his only prior stakes try.

#2-START THE RIDE: Won the Cal Cup Derby at this 1-1/16 miles trip vs. state-bred in his first official start. More fancied of the 2 Dan Blacker trainees entered, note he was declared a non-starter in what was to be his November debut at Del Mar due to an issue with the assistant starter. Armando Ayuso returns to pilot this colt by Upstart.

#3-SECURED FREEDOM: The G3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes third-place finisher looks to give trainer Tim Yakteen his second San Felipe victory in 4 years (Practical Move in 2023). This son of Practical Joke finished with interest in the Lewis following a rallying sprint maiden win in his second start. Regular rider Kazushi Kimura will be aboard the colt who has worked well in the weeks since the Lewis.

#4-BRANT (pictured): Expected favorite makes his 3-year-old return and first afternoon appearance since finishing third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He was 8-5 second choice to Juvenile winner Ted Noffey that day over this 1-1/16 miles trip. All 3 starts have come at Del Mar, including a front-running score in the G1 Del Mar Futurity at 7 furlongs. Florent Geroux replaces Flavien Prat aboard this $3 million Gun Runner colt. Bob Baffert owns a record 9 San Felipe scores, most recently Imagination in 2024 and including the likes of Point Given and Authentic.

#5-POTENTE: Second of 2 Baffert chances for a record-padding 10th San Felipe trophy, this $2.4 million colt exits a debut maiden sprint win Jan. 31. The Into Mischief colt was smoked to 3-5 odds in that only appearance but battled wire-to-wire to win by three-quarters of a length. He’ll be tested for distance, class and foundation under Juan Hernandez, who replaces Kazushi Kimura. Potente is the most lightly raced member of the cast.

#6-SO HAPPY: Established dasher by champion sprinter Runhappy looks to test his distance mettle for trainer Mark Glatt. He rallied to win his debut at Del Mar at 38-1 odds and employed similar tactics to upend Baffert’s favored Buetane in the Jan. 10 G2 San Vicente over 7 furlongs. He’s been working fast in recent weeks and will have Mike Smith aboard as in his previous starts.

#7-ROBUSTA: Doug O’Neill trainee has won 1 of 3 starts and comes into the San Felipe off a non-threat sixth of 7 in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at 36-1 odds. He’ll try blinkers on in hopes of shaking things up and being more a part of the pace as he was in his second-start maiden mile wire job. Jockey Emisael Jaramillo has been riding lights out since arriving at Santa Anita this season and will be back in the saddle of this Accelerate colt.

**ConleyPicks** · 03-07-2026, 07:22 AM

Race of the Week: Santa Anita Handicap on Saturday

by Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
One of the iconic races that defines California's Thoroughbred history, the Santa Anita Handicap returns Saturday to anchor one of the track's annual biggest days. A total of 11 races get underway at 3 pm ET / noon PT with the Big 'Cap slated for Race 10. The lead-ins feature the Beholder Mile, the Kilroe Mile and the San Felipe Stakes. From Breeders' Cup champions to potential Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown stars, intrigue abounds.

Horseplayers with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet be sure to take part in the $5,000 Exacta-Thon promotion throughout the Saturday card at Santa Anita. Plus: there's up to a $10 money-back special in the undercard's San Felipe Stakes if your win bet finishes second or third in the key Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby prep.

Field Depth:
JUST A TOUCH is multiple Grade 1-placed. GETAWAY CAR is a Grade 3 winner and Grade 1-placed. MIDNIGHT MAMMOTH is a Grade 3 winner and Grade 2-placed. Very even in terms of strength of schedule.

Pace:
Competitive, lacking a run-off obvious pacesetter, but also compromised almost exclusively of horses who want to be right in the hunt. Difficult race to handicap on pace, especially jockey intent knowing this is 1-1/4 miles and how important conservation may become.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-MIDNIGHT MAMMOTH: Fourth in last year’s Santa Anita Handicap and second in the Hollywood Gold Cup, this Craig Dollase trainee must bounce back off a disappointing fifth in the San Pasqual Jan. 31 as the 8-5 favorite – a race where he returned off just 15 days’ rest. 7-year-old could join a distinguished list of Santa Anita Handicap winners of this age, which includes Seabiscuit, John Henry and Cougar II. Only 8-year-old Olvaherry (1947) has been an older Big ‘Cap winner. The 1-1/4 miles trip has been a hurdle, even if he won the 12-furlong Cougar II at Del Mar in 2024. Lost his last 7 without Lasix, which isn't in play Saturday.

#2-GETAWAY CAR: San Pasqual runner-up was a bit more off the pace early than usual that day and likely will be ridden more aggressively this time from the 2-hole under Juan Hernandez. His signature wins have come at shorter trips and he’s failed to pass 1-1/8 miles test, much less 1-1/4 miles. Trainer Bob Baffert won this race in 2024 with Newgate, his sixth Santa Anita Handicap (3 off Charlie Whittingham’s record of 9).

#3-JUST A TOUCH: Looks to become the second straight Big Cap winner to ship west, following Locked a year ago. Trainer Brad Cox makes a fifth straight Santa Anita Handicap appearance, finishing second in 2022 with Warrant and third last year with Hit Show among his placings. Just a Touch has yet to win a stakes 7 tries, post 5 runners-up in those defeats. The 1-1/4 miles will be a challenge for the son of Triple Crown winner and Santa Anita Derby champ Justify. Florent Geroux has picked up a pair of stakes wins in the month since moving to Santa Anita from Fair Grounds. I'm taking my chances tossing him from the exactas.

#4-VODKA VODKA: California-bred’s best races have when he’s been on or near the lead, and that could be competitive real estate Saturday. Exits a win at 9 furlongs in the Cal Cup Turf Classic, but was equally solid in open-company dirt tilts in the prior 2 starts. Aggie Ordonez’s barn has been pinpoint with limited starters at the meet. Jockey Kent Desormeaux seeks a fourth career Santa Anita Handicap win, spanning from Best Pal in 1992 to Milwaukee Brew in 2002 to Stilleto Boy in 2023.

#5-SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING: Reportedly will scratch.

#6-BRITISH ISLES: Predominant turf performer found new footing when second in November’s Native Diver at Del Mar. Respectable fifth of 12 in the Pegasus World Cup in late January at 83-1 odds was enough to continue onto the Big ‘Cap with some dirt expectations. Richard Baltas saddled 2021 Big ‘Cap winner Idol. He’s won up to 12 furlongs on turf, and like Just a Touch, is sired by Triple Crown winner and local star Justify.

#7-WESTWOOD: Reportedly will scratch.

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
JUST A TOUCH may be extended on distance but holds a talent edge that should land him on the ticket in some fashion.

Best Longshot Contender:
BRITISH ISLES nearly upset the Native Diver at 16-1 and outran his odds in the Pegasus. At 6-1 morning line, he’s got value appeal.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$25 exacta part-wheel 6,4 over 3,6,4 ($100).

**ConleyPicks** · 03-07-2026, 07:23 AM

Meet the Contenders: Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby

by Jeremy Plonk

A flashy field of 9 clashes in the 1-1/16 miles Tampa Bay Derby on Saturday with 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the winner. Horses who ran in arguably the best maiden races at Keeneland, Gulfstream and the current Tampa Bay Downs meeting are in the spotlight with power broker barns like Cox, Brown and Pletcher taking attendance.

Horseplayers with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet take advantage of up to a $10 money-back special promo on Triple Crown prep race win bets, featuring Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby as well as the same-day San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita. Get up to $10 back if your win bet finishes second or third when you bet with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet.

Let’s meet the contenders for the Tampa Bay Derby (Race 11):

#1-REDLAND REBELS: Kitten’s Joy Stakes runner-up switches back to dirt after a couple of promising grass tries at Gulfstream Park. The gelded son of Uncle Chuck has shown speed since stretching out around 2 turns and jockey Junior Alvarado could be aggressive from the rail for trainer Patrick Biancone.

#2-TALKIN: Champagne Stakes runner-up tanked in the Remsen when ninth to finish a 3-race freshman campaign. This $600,000 Good Magic colt returns with a new rider in Joel Rosario for trainer Danny Gargan. His lone victory came sprinting at Saratoga in August, easily defeating potential Tampa Bay Derby favorite Further Ado in their only head-to-head.

#3-ROGER THAT DANA: Florida-bred debuted a wire-to-wire sprint winner at Gulfstream in October and set the tempo in the Florida Sire Stakes In Reality before fading to third. Didn’t get into the mix early in the Mucho Macho Man on Jan. 3, but ran on well enough to be a distant second to Commander, who returned last week to win the Fountain of Youth. Luis Ramirez trains.

#4-HULKAMANIA: Four-length debut sprint winner Feb. 8 over the Tampa Bay Downs surface makes the immediate rise in class and distance. Whit Beckman trains the $160,000 son of McKinzie whose grand dam Schiaparelli was a fast turf sprinter / miler in SoCal. Jareth Loveberry takes over in the saddle for local ace Daniel Centeno.

#5-POWERSHIFT: Locked up in a veritable match race in his Feb. 7 Tampa debut when second-best to Chad Brown’s Emerging Market. Earned rave reviews while more than 13 lengths clear of the rest and posting a big speed figure. $500,000 Constitution colt takes the baton from stablemate Renegade, who won the Sam F. Davis Stakes and bypassed this spot for the Arkansas Derby. Dam Free Flying Soul was a top-class California dasher, third in the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. Todd Pletcher holds the Tampa Bay Derby record for training wins with 6, most recently Tapit Trice in 2023. John Velazquez is 1 of 6 riders to win this race twice (2013, 2015).

#6-FURTHER ADO (pictured): Vaulted from Saratoga disappointment to Keeneland superstar when winning his third start Oct. 10 by a whopping 20 lengths. He followed up that 2-turn stretchout with a harder-fought Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes win at Churchill to close his season. The $550,000 Gun Runner colt hails from the female family of champion mare Beautiful Pleasure and has a trio of bullet workouts at Payson Park for his sophomore unveiling. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. won this race last year aboard Owen Almighty as well as 2022 aboard Classic Causeway. Trainer Brad Cox has won the Mucho Macho Man, Jerome and Fountain of Youth so far on the 2026 trail.

#7-THUNDER BUCK: Calumet Farm home-bred was moved from trainer Brad Cox to Brendan Walsh after a last-place finish in the Jan. 17 Lecomte Stakes. This Gun Runner colt won his initial route try prior to that at Fair Grounds after debuting fourth at Keeneland in a race that produced eventual stakes winner Chip Honcho. Local leading rider Samuel Marin takes the mount for the first time.

#8-THE PUMA: The only Sam F. Davis Stakes alum to run back in the Tampa Bay Derby, the 2-race maiden finished a credible third in that one while trying stakes and 2 turns for the first time. His debut second to Chief Wallabee also looked better when that one came back to run a just-miss second in the Fountain of Youth last week. Javier Castellano rode 2016 Tampa Bay Derby winner Destin. Gustavo Delgado seeks his follow-up to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage with this colt by dual-Eclipse Award and Belmont Stakes winner Essential Quality.

#9-CANALETTO: Smashing Jan. 25 debut winner flashed one of the more impressive Gulfstream maiden victories of the Championship Meet. That 8-length score was flattered when the third-place finisher returned to blow away a maiden field 4 weeks later at GP. Chad Brown trained 2024 Tampa Bay Derby winner Domestic Product. Flavien Prat has the call on the $1 million son of Info Mischief, who is half-brother to 2025 Arkansas Derby winner Sandman. The outside post provides a challenge as he tries 2 turns for the first time.

**ConleyPicks** · 03-07-2026, 07:24 AM

Scott Shapiro: Triple Crown Prep Analysis | San Felipe & Tampa Bay Derby

by Scott Shapiro

The Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard action continues on Saturday afternoon with a pair of Triple Crown preps that award 50 points to the winners. Both The Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and San Felipe (G2) mark the return of big name 2YOs that are set to make their 3YO debut. Further Ado has not competed in the afternoons since his victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), while Brant races for the first time since his third-place effort to Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). Saturday also marks another week of 1/ST Bet and Xpressbet’s “Triple Crown Prep Races Money-Back Special” promotion. Much like our Money Back special offers in the past, register for the promo, and then get up to $10 back on your first Win bet if your horse finishes second or third. Here is how I will approach them.

Tampa Bay Derby, 5:35 pm ET:

The field came up strong for this year’s main event in Oldsmar, Florida. The 1/16-mile race drew a field of 9 led by the aforementioned #6 Further Ado. The Spendthrift Farm colt is the one to beat based on his two big efforts in Kentucky last fall after stretching out to two-turns for trainer Brad Cox. The question is whether he is the one to bet, especially with the insurance of the Money Back offer. My answer is no. He regressed as expected in Louisville after the huge performance at Keeneland and has not been seen since. This was the plan for the last several weeks at least, so that is a good thing, but he still has questions to answer since we have not seen him in over three months. I will try the maiden #5 Powershift. Trainer Todd Pletcher has won this race a record six times and I was impressed with this colt’s ability to relax in the pocket going a route of ground on debut. It was as if he had been doing it forever before angling out to avoid getting caught behind tiring long shots. The son of Constitution was beaten three-quarters of a length that day by Emerging Market, but it was over thirteen lengths back to third. Johnny V comes in off an upset win in the Rebel and should be able to work out another favorable inside trip on this Repole Stable runner.

Play: Powershift

San Felipe, 6:41 pm ET:

Similar to the Tampa Bay Derby, the question in this 8.5-furlong test over the main track is not whether #4 Brant is the likeliest winner. The $3M OBS March 2025 purchase is no doubt the one to beat in his first start since last Halloween, but is he the one to bet? Once again, my answer is no. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile has not come back strong thus far and this is another runner that not only has not competed in over four months, but has yet to win going two-turns. There is clearly a significant chance that the son of Gun Runner gets to the front, never looks back, and cements himself as a top contender for the first Saturday in May, but this is a gambling game so I will take a swing with #3 Secured Freedom. The Tim Yakteen trainee is unlikely to win a Triple Crown race, but ran much better than looks in his first route try last month. The Virginia-bred did not break great, was caught three-wide into the first turn, and remained wide throughout. I thought he showed a lot of toughness to continue to fight to the wire despite the less-than-ideal voyage. He draws to the inside, so hopefully jockey Kazuski Kimura can navigate a far cleaner trip on Saturday. I would be surprised if he does not run his race.

Play: #3 Secured Freedom (8-1 ML)

**ConleyPicks** · 03-07-2026, 07:26 AM

Scott Shapiro: Santa Anita Big 'Cap Day Full-Card Analysis | Sat\urday, March 7, 2026

by Scott Shapiro

Santa Anita Park takes center stage on Saturday afternoon with their 11-race “Big Cap” Day card. The racing kicks off at 3PM eastern/12PM local time and includes four graded stakes events. It also marks the return of 1/ST BET and Xpressbet’s Exacta-Thon. The goal this time is to hit 5 or more $2 exactas over the course of the afternoon. Those who connect on at least 5 will earn an equal split of $4000. The horseplayer(s) that connect on the most will take down the other $1000. Remember to register and best of luck! Don't forget a $69,988 carryover in the Sunset 6 wager today, matching the final 3 races at Santa Anita and final 3 at Gulfstream. Here are my full card thoughts.

Grade Descriptions: A= Highest Degree of Confidence, B= Solid Play, C= Least Preferred or Pass, X= Likely Winner but at odds probably too short to wager on.

Race 1:
Grade: B-
Use: 3 Booked Clubhouse

Forecast: The opener is a state-bred MSW event for 3YOs sprinting over the sod where 3-1-ML favorite #3 Booked Clubhouse looks like the one to beat. The Sean McCarthy trainee put in a strong run from off the pace without a setup in his first start off the freshening. The effort was flattered when the winner of that event came back and won in his first start versus winners. He should get an honest pace to run at on the slight cutback with Kyle Frey sticking around.

Race 2:
Grade: B
Use: 7 Simple Song; 6 Red Flag; 4 The Last Straw

Forecast: #6 Red Flag is the one to beat in this first-level allowance at 6-furlongs after two strong efforts since being claimed at Del Mar last November by trainer Jeff Mullins. However, he has had favorable flows in both starts where #7 Simple Song has not. The son of Munnings sped to the lead off the break for Mark Glatt on January 2 in a race that collapsed late and then did not run well, but again was part of a contentious early pace in his follow up try on January 31. Glatt puts the blinkers on for the first time and Simple Song very well could control things without issue in his third start off the bench. Hopefully, he has more stick in the lane. I will key Simple Song with Red Flag and potential up setter #4 The Last Straw for my first Exacta-Thon play on the day.

Race 3:
Grade: C+
Use: 4 Cosmic Heat; 1 Umbralle; 3 Surfin’ USA

Forecast: I lack a strong opinion in this first-level allowance other than I expect #2 Will Happen to get over bet. Trainer Richard Baltas is just 3 for 44 with a $0.72 ROI over the last 60 days and this gal has not raced since early October. I will use a few in early horizontals in hopes of besting the ML chalk. Good luck to the late, great Jeff Siegel and Eric Sondheimer’s #3 Surfin’ USA!

Race 4: Beholder Mile (G1)
Grade: X
Use: 4 Splendora

Forecast: I have no interest in trying to beat 4-5-favorite #4 Splendora in the first of four graded stakes races on the Big Cap Day agenda. The daughter of Audible has rattled off four in a row, including a dominant win in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. She could be forced to work going two turns, but in the end, she should prevail once again under Juan Hernandez. Perhaps cold punching an exacta play with the chalk on top could be a smart way to approach this race from an Exacta-Thon perspective.

Race 5:
Grade: B
Use: 5 Dakota Country; 6 Jimmy Blue Jeans

Forecast: What a cool horse #6 Jimmy Blue Jeans is. 2 for 2 to kick off his 8YO season after failing to win in 8 starts in 2025. He is the one to beat in this starter at one mile over the turf, but perhaps #4 Phospherence moving inside him may make things a bit more difficult for the veteran Cal-bred. I think #5 Dakota Country is live either way at a big price. The NY-bred stretches back out to two-turns after just missing at 40-1 going one-turn on February 21. The son of Mucho Macho Man has proven experience at a route of ground and could fall into a perfect trip with Tiago Pereira taking the call.

Race 6:
Grade: B-
Use: 10 Captain Shreve; 7 Duke Silver; 9 Memory; 1 Crude Velocity; 3 Decisive Win

Forecast: Obviously, one of the trio of Bob Baffert first-time starters have a strong chance to get to the wire first in this 6.5-furlong main track event that kicks off the Pick 6, but I am intrigued by a pair of others. #10 Captain Shreve holds the experience edge at the tricky 6.5-furlong distance and should have options out of the gate from his far outside draw. This could prove beneficial in the final sixteenth of a mile. #7 Duke Silver has no experience, but is likely to be forgotten on the tote. The son of Silver State commanded $335k at the OBS April ’25 sale, which is noteworthy since his sire stands for just $7500. He comes in off a steady work pattern for Mark Glatt.

Race 7:
Grade: B
Use: 1 Mo Sasha

Forecast: The post is not ideal for a 6-furlong turf sprint, but #1 Mo Sasha should still be very tough in this MSW for 3YO fillies. The daughter of Constitution lacked early speed in her first start over this course in late January, but showed some serious talent splitting two speed horses with a big late run to earn second. Juan Hernandez will have to work out a trip given the inside draw, but I do not think the Michael McCarthy trainee has that much to beat in the start of the late Pick 5 and All-Turf Pick 3.

Race 8: San Felipe (G2)
Grade: B-
Use: 3 Secured Freedom; 4 Brant

Forecast: For a deeper dive into my thoughts on the Triple Crown prep check out my blog from yesterday, Horse Cents with Bailey Armour, or the 1/ST Call Podcast with Jeremy Plonk, but there is no doubt #4 Brant is supposed to win this race with his best. The question is what is his best in terms of two-turns making #3 Secured Freedom the bet. The Practical Joke colt had a brutal trip in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) yet kept trying to the wire. He holds the recency edge over the likely odds-on favorite making him worth a Win wager with our Money Back Special offer. Or maybe some of you would prefer a 4-3 exacta for the Exacta-Thon promo.

Race 9: Frank Kilroe Mile (G2)
Grade: B-
Use: 1 Mi Hermano Ramon; 2 Almendares

Forecast: The only thing I am confident about in this year’s Kilroe Mile is barring scratches there should be an honest early pace. Not only is #3 El Potente likely to show his customary speed, but the quick #6 Mi Bago ships in for Mark Casse, in addition to #5 Cabo Spirit and #7 Final Boss, who do their best running when upfront as well. I wish I trusted an off-the-pace runner more, but my lukewarm top choice is #1 Mi Hermano Ramon. The Mark Glatt trainee makes his first start since late spring ’25, and probably prefers a bit more ground, but he draws favorably along the inside and should get the right setup.

Race 10: Santa Anita Handicap (G1)
Grade: C+
Use: 4 Vodka Vodka; 6 British Isles

Forecast: Unfortunately, this year’s Big Cap field lost a couple of those originally entered, but there is still some opportunity despite the compact group. #3 Just a Touch and #2 Getaway Car are likely to take the most public support by a pretty significant amount, but I will try to beat them with a pair of prices. #4 Vodka Vodka should be ready for the 10-furlong test. He has been freshened up by trainer Aggie Ordonez after a win over the grass against lesser in mid-January. He has a shot to spring the upset, as does #6 British Isles. The Justify gelding ships back west after a decent fifth in the Pegasus World Cup (G1). He has been given time and should have no issue with the 1 �-miles.

Race 11:
Grade: B-
Use: 9 King of Dragons; 2 Gold Council; 3 Highplainsdrifter

Forecast: Trainer Mark Glatt holds a strong hand with the two favorites in the finale. #7 Infinitum and #1 Warm Sun and Brew both make plenty of sense to be there at the wire, but I do not trust either of them to seal the deal. I will try to beat them with a pair of prices that should get good trips from the inside, as well as top choice #9 King of Dragons. The Peter Eurton makes his third start off the bench after a poor start cost him all chance two months ago. Eurton lures Hector Berrios for the first time. Hopefully, he can angle over and save ground early before a strong run late.

**ConleyPicks** · 03-07-2026, 07:27 AM

Jeremy Plonk: Tampa Bay Derby Day Late Pick 4 Analysis

by Jeremy Plonk

Get set for the season’s biggest day at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday when five stakes races make up Tampa Bay Derby Day. A trio of those are among the late pick 4, a sequence that lacks an obvious single but also looks to be reachable without a terribly deep leg.

Tampa Race 9: Hillsborough Stakes (4:29 pm ET)

The Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf ended in an absolute melee and several alumnae from that race re-matched. The deep-closing winner Destino d’Oro got the pace set-up and avoided any issues rallying wide. Don’t see the same set-up here. #6 Child of the Moon is a fresh face and hits a second-off-the-layoff form cycle for the ever-dangerous Chad-Irad team. Won a similar situation to open 2024 before missing all of 2025. Of the Pegasus returnees, #1 Whiskey Decision got a rousing 105 BRIS late pace figure in that one, which is not easy to do in a fast-paced race, even if you’re a deep closer like her. #8 And One More Time could get an easier pace this time after a wide draw really made her work for it near the engine at Gulfstream. I’ll dance with a trio: 6,1,8 in order of preference.

Tampa Race 10: Florida Oaks

With strong early speed in the extreme inside and outside posts, that’s often a recipe for an even faster pace than expected as one hustles to keep position and the other hustles to avoid ground loss into the clubhouse turn. The beneficiary may be #5 Dandona, who returned from 8 months away to run a solid allowance third with an eye-popping 111 BRIS late pace figure. She may be rolling late under Prat for Saffie against a field typically in the 80s late. No doubt #7 Time to Dream (pictured) is the filly to beat if she runs back to her early 2YO form. The Todd Pletcher trainee also benefits from the projected fast pace. Two will do: 5,7.

Tampa Race 11: Tampa Bay Derby

Nothing creative here. #6 Further Ado was one of the more impressive juveniles a season ago, has been aimed at this race and the Blue Grass all winter and has hit the mark with a perfectly spaced workout tab. Couldn’t see much on video through the fog in a few of those moves at 1st.tv, but showed good energy through the lane. #9 Canaletto was brilliant in his Gulfstream debut, but an outside post and lighter-than-expected late pace figure in a blowout 1-turn mile victory, make me want to demand more value intra-race. Still a big threat. #5 Powershift would be so surprise at all off a big maiden runner-up to a rival headed to the Louisiana Derby. Trainer Pletcher won the Sam F. Davis with maiden Renegade and could continue that. Covered with quality: 6,9,5.

Tampa Race 12: maiden special weight

Chad Brown virtually owns the turf filly races, so when he sends out a pair of maidens with Irad Ortiz and Flavien Prat partnered, it’s safe to say they’ll be formidable as he’s 35% wins and 50% in the exacta at the current Tampa meet. #8 Fund Flows debuts under Irad, while Parfois was DQ’d from a debut victory in France in August and returns under Prat. But don’t sleep on the 2-3 finishers of a Jan. 21 local heat that was won by a $500,000 rookie for Tom Proctor. #10 Consider Me First and #5 Tiz the Lady were sharp in defeat in a race that finished faster the fourth quarter than the third-quarter split, typically a good sign for a turf mile. You could bet only on Brown, but I’ll use more: 5,8,10,11.

The Ticket

6,1,8 with 5,7 with 6,9,5 with 5,8,10,11 = $36 for $.50

**ConleyPicks** · 03-07-2026, 07:28 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis | Saturday, March 7, 2026

by Al CImaglia

Northfield Park has a 14-race card with the $1.00 Late Pick 4 starting in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 14% takeout, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (9:40 PM EST)

3-Pams For Real (4-1)-Was used early last time and faded to take a distant 4th. Regular driver Kurt Sugg steers here and he could make a positive difference. Comes back in sequence this time, could land on the point and not burn as much gas. Looks like a player and has taken 6 pictures in 26 starts at Nfld.
7-Not That Hillary (5/2)-Aaron Merriman will be out and rolling and could get the lead or a pocket ride behind the one above. The mare has won 3 of 4 at Nfld but hasn't tested this level. Likes to win, this isn't a deep bunch and hopefully won't be over bet.

Race 12 (10:02 PM EST)

3-Stay Salty (2-1)-Beat this kind on 2-28 going gate to wire drawing off by over 3 lengths. Worked to get on the engine but after that controlled the mile. Dan Noble will look to be in command early on and it looks like a 2-horse race with Maggie Time that leaves from post 1. Will lean here, this mare is better at sealing the deal.

Race 13 (10:24 PM EST)

6-Lady Rita (5/2)-Has been handicapped with the 8 and 7 posts the last 2 races. Raced well hitting the board but did not connect for a win. Sliding in 1 slot could make a difference, especially with the program chalk leaving from the 8-hole. Conditioner Sam Schillachi and Merriman do well together combining for 34% winners.
8-High Flyin" Filly (2-1)-Comes off a sharp score at this level at Mea and has won 3 of the last 4 starts. Raced at Nfld 2 and 3 back, was hung the mile on 2-14 but posted a win on 2-7 going off at 3/5. Left from the 7-hole in the win here and has been the chalk in the last 4 races. Has the gate speed to get a good early seat and will be a small price again.

Race 14 (10:46 PM EST)

1-The Dragon Queen (8/5)- The Kent Sherman entry drops to a soft spot, Merriman gets the call and sheds post 9 for post 1. There are things to like no doubt but recent form versus better has been dull. Will overlook those struggles, this is the 3rd race since 12-7, and the camera shy mare is in a spot to wake up.
6-How About Murph (20-1)-The veteran mare seems to like coming off cover and rolling late. Did that 2 back to cash a 3rd place check at 68-1. Took some money in last and came a dull 4th leaving from the rail. Comes back in sequence this time and could be overlooked. Will use and hope Brandon Rhoades is in striking range turning for the wire.

$2 Late Pick 4

3,7/3/6,8/1,6
Total Bet=$16

**ConleyPicks** · 03-07-2026, 07:28 AM

**ConleyPicks** · 03-07-2026, 07:29 AM

FRANK CARULLI'S DAILY PICKS

Laurel Park - Race #1

#6 ROBERT’S MOON (2-1)	Fast start could be the answer to solving 19-month winless drought.
#3 SET FOR LIFE (3-1)	Idle 10 months, ran second to recent $25k/3L winner when last seen.
#2 TETHERED SOUL (7-2)	Another who could show more speed with Hazlewood on class drop.
Race Summary	R0BERT’S MOON, winless since his second start in August 2024, missed three times in photo finishes with Toledo aboard and will have every chance to end the drought today. He posted a fastest-of-72 workout over the track January 23 and can maximize his speed in this six-horse field if he breaks alertly. Bet to win and place and play 6-2 and 6-3 exactas.

Laurel Park - Race #3

#3 UPSHOT (4-1)	Need not be much to win at first asking, gets in light-weighted.
#1 LANNISTER (9-5)	Failed to win at even-money odds or less in all three starts.
#2 MAJORCA (7-5)	Led in 3 of 5 route attempts while in Pletcher barn, returns as gelding.
Race Summary	UPSHOT lures the leading jockey and gets Lasix for his first start off a series of moderate workouts. His dam, Tanca, won a Maiden Special Weight sprint in her debut. Bet to win and place and play a 1-3 exacta box.

Laurel Park - Race #5

#3 STRESS RELIEVER (8-1)	Longshot stab has speed and can use it well for new connections.
#6 MOON CACHE (2-1)	Stablemate of top one loves Laurel, won state-bred allowance off layoff.
#1 AUDIBLY (8-5)	Hit board in 4 of last 6 routes, ran third as only entrant in field to try 1-1/8 miles.
Race Summary	STRESS RELIEVER, claimed out of a runaway victory in a four-horse field, picks up 6 pounds but could carry her speed far, nonetheless, at a good price. She met three repeat winners and several other follow-up winners in her previous eight starts on dirt. Bet to win and place.

**ConleyPicks** · 03-07-2026, 07:30 AM

Aqueduct Hotlist - March 7

Mar. 06, 2026

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

5^th race [Alw 50000s, 7F] – (2) Gamebred (B) tried to rally on a speed favoring track and finished third behind the two front runners. (1) Morlock finished in the top three 9 out of her last 11 races including a second at this level after pressing the pace going a mile. (5) Good Lord was claimed from his last three starts with a win three weeks ago for $50,000 for Linda Rice. (3) Trust Fund was claimed for $45,000 in January after running third in a NY-bred second-level allowance.

6^th race [Clm 50000B, 6 ? F] – (3) Next On Stage (A) rallied for second on a speed favoring track and got claimed by Linda Rice. (4) Reliable Lady drops into a restricted claiming race for the first time after a series of allowance starts. (6) Vekomancercomes back from an October layoff and changes to the barn of Linda Rice after racing at Keeneland and Horseshoe Indianapolis. (7) Ready for Trouble has hit the board a few times at this claiming level.

7^th race [NY, Alw 77000 N1X, 1 mi] – (6) Pocket Queens (C) returned from an eight month layoff, was bet down from 5-1 to 7-2, and finished third. (4) Grace Reformed comes back from a July layoff after a race when she clipped heels but had been second at this level a few times. (1) Early Oncame back from an eight month layoff to finish fourth in a stakes race at Tampa. In the spring she missed by a nose in the Gazelle (G3). (2) Top of the Table moves back to NY-bred racing where she broke her maiden and fit well at this level.

8^th race [NY, Maddie May, 1 mi] – (7) Blue Note (A/C) was bet down from 7-2 to be the 2-1 favorite and rallied to win by a length for Linda Rice. (2) Galinda is undefeated in two starts including a more than nine length victory in the East View. (1) Rina’s Revenge was second in that East View while clear of the others in that field. (3) Mathea got her maiden victory with a clear margin as a heavy favorite last month.

Best bets: Gamebred (5^th); Next on Stage (6^th). Best Value: Pocket Queens (7^th); Blue Note (8^th).

Saturday Pick 3 Special --
Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 covers races 6-8 and includes the Maddie May 3, 4, 6, 7 with 1, 2, 4, 6 with 2, 7 = $32.

No.	Name	Letter last race	Today's Race	Comments
(2)	Gamebred	B on 2/5	5	Tried to rally on a speed bias track.
(3)	Next on Stage	A on 2/12	6	Closed for second on a speed favoring track.
(6)	Pocket Queens	C on 2/12	7	Finished third after a long layoff.
(7)	Blue Note	A on 1/16	8	Bet down to be favorite and won debut for Linda Rice.

**ConleyPicks** · 03-07-2026, 07:30 AM

Gulfstream Park Hotlist - March 7

Mar. 06, 2026

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race – (2) Rules and Regs had a bad start and then raced wide but still finished second. Gets the win here. (1) Mistborn is an interesting first-timer. (6) Trust Account is working nicely for her 2026 debut. (5) Call on Me could contend in her debut. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-5-6.

3^rd race – (5) Neom City can take a step forward after a pair of thirds. (7) Girvin Star has speed and could be tough to catch. (2) Vuela Paloma may respond to a switch to dirt. (3) Humor Me Brother is worth a look after a six-month break. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-5-7.

5th race – (6) Speed Figures figures to be the main speed and may not be caught. (1) Classy War looms a big danger from the rail. (2) Xy Speed should pose a late threat. (4) Louie the Sun King fits in nicely here. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-4-6.

7th race – (3) Litigation should get a fast pace to chase and catch. (1) Rezasrolex has the rail and may be the one to fear. (2) Souper Quest should work out a good trip in this field. (4) Coppola will be a threat off his best try. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-3-4.

11th race – (4) Sterling Silver was second in the Inside Information and gets the nod here. (5) R Disaster has never been worse than second in 13 career starts and will be the main rival. (7) Indy Bay may benefit from her last start. (3) Beyond Belief can bounce back with a better try here. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-4-5-7.

**ConleyPicks** · 03-07-2026, 07:31 AM

Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | March 7, 2026

Mar. 06, 2026

Race 8 at Santa Anita | Saturday, March 7 | Post Time 6:41 PM Eastern

San Felipe Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $200,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Three Year Olds

Winning contender is: So Happy (6)

Other contender: Start the Ride (2)

Analysis and contenders:

I’m starting with the even money favorite, Brant (4), trained by Bob Baffert, but I don’t think he can win. Brant earned a 105 figure when he ran in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, leading from the start, but caved to finish third. His best winning figure, 96, came in a sprint when he was leading from the start, but Brant has other early horses, Flash Fritz (1) and Robusta (7), who will try to take the lead, and he may be best suited as a one-turn horse. Therefore, I am taking a stand against Brant, and taking a stand with Potente (5), starting at 9 to 2, also trained by Baffert, who won his only start at six furlongs, which is a tall order for a horse to win a mile and one-sixteenth stakes in a Derby prep this March.

So Happy (6) won the San Vicente Stakes on January 10 at seven furlongs in his second start, earning a 100 Equibase Speed Figure, the highest winning figure of any other horse in the field. In the San Vicente, So Happy moved from third, three lengths behind with a quarter, then took the lead and won comfortably. So Happy gets the six post in this field where he will be able to stalk since there are at least two or three “early” horses. In 2023, Forbidden Kingdom won the San Vicente and the San Felipe, which is the same prep So Happy is using. Hall-of-Fame jockey Mike Smith rode So Happy in both his races, and Smith won this race in 2016 with Danzing Candy, in 2017 with Mastery, and with Life Is Good in 2021. So Happy put in a fantastic workout coming into this race, a four-furlong 47.4, which was the third best of 39 on the day, so he is the horse to beat.

Start the Ride (2) has only had one official race, winning the California Cup Derby Stakes on January 17. He ran on November 16, but he was declared a non-starter because he did not have a fair start. Coming off a two-month break, Start the Rideshowed a strong late kick and should also benefit from all the early speed. Start the Ride only earned a 92 figure, but he is likely to improve in his second race after the layoff. Notably, California Chrome won the 2014 California Cup Derby, then took the San Felipe, and later the Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby. With two entries by Baffert, Start the Ride could have value in a win bet as his starting odds are 12 to 1.

Win bets:

So Happy (6)at fair odds of 3 or 2 or higher.Start the Ride (2) can be considered at odds of 4 to 1 or higher.

**ConleyPicks** · 03-07-2026, 07:31 AM

Keeneland Select Derby Prep - Tampa Bay Derby | March 7, 2026

Mar. 06, 2026

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

The $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby (G3), Tampa Bay Downs, Race 11

(6) Further Ado came of age in his final two starts at 2. Can continue his winning ways at 3. (9) Canaletto was a highly impressive debut winner and might be this good. (8) The Puma is highly regarded and cannot be ignored here. (5) Powershift was second in a very fast maiden race over the track and will be a main factor if he can duplicate that effort. Betting strategy: 6 to win. Exacta and trifecta box: 5-6-8-9.

**ConleyPicks** · 03-07-2026, 07:31 AM

Keeneland Select Derby Prep - San Felipe | March 7, 2026

Mar. 06, 2026

The $200,000 San Felipe Stakes (G2), Santa Anita Park, Race 8

(4) Brant debuts at 3 after finishing third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Should start the year off with a victory. (6) So Happy is unbeaten in 2 starts and comes off a nice win in the San Vicente. Should be the one to fear. (5) Potente is Baffert’s “other” starter besides Brant. Won his debut in a solid fashion but that was at six furlongs. (3) Secured Freedom rallied for third in the mile Robert B. Lewis. Will enjoy the added distance. Betting strategy: 4 to win. Exacta and trifecta box: 3-4-5-6.