Saturday 3/14/26 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**ConleyPicks** · 03-14-2026, 08:06 AM

Meet the Contenders: Saturday’s Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs

by Jeremy Plonk

Kentucky Derby qualifying points will be up for grabs Saturday at Colonial Downs when the second spring edition of the Virginia Derby is offered. The 1-turn race at 1-1/8 miles is unique in trip. Last year's winner American Promise went on to perform in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, while this year's cast looks to make a name for itself.

Horseplayers with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet take advantage of up to a $10 money-back special promo on Triple Crown prep race win bets, featuring Saturday’s Virginia Derby. Get up to $10 back if your win bet finishes second or third when you bet with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet.

Let’s meet the contenders for the Virginia Derby (Race 9):

#1-BUETANE: $1.15 million son of Belmont winner Tiz the Law has hit the board in the G1 Hopeful, G2 San Vicente and G3 Southwest while searching for his first stakes win. Bob Baffert won last week’s San Felipe with Potente and looks to bolster his potential Kentucky Derby roster. Well-traveled colt will make his fifth career start at a fifth different track. Flavien Prat has the call on the expected favorite. Baffert’s Getaway Car finished fourth as the 4-5 favorite in this race las tyear.

#2-GRITTINESS: Five-race maiden makes a third straight stakes start after a Remsen fifth and runner-up in the Withers most recently. This $575,000 son of Curlin has kept strong company lines all the way back to his debut at Saratoga when chasing eventual 2-year-old champ Ted Noffey. Todd Pletcher also trained the dam, Coach Rocks, winner of the Gulfstream Oaks and runner-up in the 2018 Black-Eyed Susan. Rajiv Maragh rides for the first time.

#3-EPIC DESIRE: Second of 2 Todd Pletcher trainees in the lineup, this Uncle Mo colt has won 1 of 6 and exits a fifth-place effort in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. Local rider Sheldon Russell – second in this race last year with Render Judgment – takes the call aboard the full-brother to $2 million earner and 3-time Grade 1 winner Adare Manor. He’s winless in 5 tries without Lasix and won’t race on the medication Saturday.

#4-WORK: Santa Anita-based son of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah broke his maiden last out in his fifth career start. Two-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Doug O’Neill finished second last week in the San Felipe with Robusta, also owned by Calumet Farm. Work finished out of the money in all 4 prior starts before winning a turf sprint at 6-1/2 furlongs last time out. Parx leading jockey Mychel Sanchez rides.

#5-HIGH CAMP: Lightly raced Instagrand home-bred for OXO Equine broke his maiden Feb. 7 at Gulfstream in his second career start. John Velazquez returns in the saddle off that 1-length score over 7 furlongs for trainer Will Walden. He’ll be without Lasix Saturday and extends a quarter-mile in trip. Second dam Summer Applause was fourth in the 2012 Kentucky Oaks and cashed checks in marquee races like the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, Spinster, Apple Blossom and DuPont Distaff.

#6-LOCKSTOCKNPHAROAH: Joins Work in this field as sons of American Pharoah, this one unbeaten in 2 starts on the synthetic surface at Turfway Park. Trainer Tommy Drury brings regular rider Edgar Morales from Kentucky as this $50,000 purchase makes his first stakes bid. He’s won sprinting and around 2 turns at a mile, so the 1-1/8 miles around 1 turn could be an effective trip for him if he handles dirt.

#7-INCREDIBOLT: Crossroads time for last year’s Grade 3 Street Sense winner after a mystifying, last-place debacle in the Grade 3 Holy Bull on Jan. 31 in his sophomore return. Riley Mott trains the Bolt d’Oro colt and regular rider Jaime Torres sticks in the saddle. He’s had 4 workouts on cue since the Holy Bull at his Palm Meadows winter base.

#8-CONFESSIONAL: Keeneland debut winner in October looks to get back on the beam after an allowance runner-up and tiring seventh in the Sam F. Davis Stakes in Florida this winter. The allowance came in pursuit of next-out Holy Bull winner Nearly, while the Davis effort looked a bit more tolerable when that race’s third-place finisher The Puma rebounded to win last week’s Tampa Bay Derby. Brad Cox trained the sire Essential Quality and champion jockey Irad Ortz Jr. will be in the saddle. Blinkers go back on for the Virginia Derby after being removed for the Davis last out.

#9-OCELLI: Maiden gives the stakes path another whirl in his fifth start following a no-threat sixth in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs. Solid maiden performances in Kentucky and Louisiana prior, including a third-place effort behind next-out winner and major Blue Grass Stakes contender Reagan’s Honor on Jan. 17. Whit Beckman and Joe Ramos team with this $12,000 colt by Connect.

#10-CLOCKER SPECIAL: Stakes debut for this Ellis Park maiden winner last July, who makes his second start off the layoff. Close second at Oaklawn Feb. 8 in allowance company for Rodolphe Brisset while stretching out to 1-1/16 miles for the first time. $200,000 son of Not This Time has trained at Keeneland in recent weeks and top Oaklawn rider Cristian Torres makes the road trip Saturday to Colonial Downs.

**ConleyPicks** · 03-14-2026, 08:07 AM

Race of the Week: Saturday's Captiva Island at Gulfstream Park

by Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Following a $647.50 Santa Anita Handicap score in this space last week, let's head back to Gulfstream Park, where we've had some Race of the Week success in the past month or so. Saturday's 11-runner turf sprint, the Race 12 Captiva Island Stakes, has few obvious tosses and much balance. That should conspire for very attractive exotics.

Horseplayers be sure to take part in the $400 Florida Derby/Santa Anita Derby Challenge Qualifier tournament this Saturday at Xpressbet.com. Also note that Sunday's card to close the weekend will feature a mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 wager.

Field Depth:
PANDORA'S GIFT is a stakes winner and Grade 2-placed and has kept the strongest strength of schedule overall. MOON SPUN, GREAT VENEZUELA, ME GOVERNOR and TWIRLING QUEEN are listed stakes winners. This is a race with a pretty familiar cast of players.

Pace:
MOON SPUN from the rail and TWIRLING QUEEN in post 9 project fastest in the group. TALIESIN could show speed if her dirt form translates to turf. The tempo will be hot with PANDORA'S GIFT and ME GOVERNOR likely in the early hunt. But at 5 furlongs on turf and without a discernable and reputable closer, it's still likely to be one near the engine.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-MOON SPUN: Rail blazer has won 4 in a row, including 2 stakes at the meet. She’s a pure turf sprinter and eliminates a lot of variables with her draw and style. Javier Castellano has won 32% in turf sprints at the current meet. Trainer Brain Lynch’s 8 stakes wins are most at the meet and his 10 turf sprint stakes wins the last 5 years at Gulfstream dwarf the competition (next-best 4).

#2-SUNNA: Jockey Joel Rosario won this race last year and is one of the game’s elite turf sprint jockeys, but this recent non-winners of 2 lifetime claiming winner takes a massive rise in class. Too much to ask, but perhaps in the pace hunt.

#3-KARAYA: Winless in 5 local turf starts, but she’s been all around the money. Best performances have been on synthetic, perhaps in part to the surface and the lesser quality y of competition gathered there. Hit the board at 7-1 and 4-1 in turf sprint stakes last winter and goes second off the layoff with a solid post.

#4-GREAT VENEZUELA: Well-traveled 5-year-old has won 7 of her last 12 while racing in Florida, New Jersey and California. She’s been a wrecking ball on the Gulfstream synthetic, but 1-for-5 with 4 minor awards on the turf here. Probably has to find a way through from mid-pack in this group and occasionally has run a BRIS late pace figure good enough to make them sweat late.

#5-TALIESIN: Dirt performer hasn’t tried turf in 13 starts and picks a difficult spot to see if she fits. She’s had 2 decent tries since moving to the Saffie Joseph Jr. barn, but didn’t see any major upgrade.

#6-LE AMAZONIA: Late-running second in the Ladies Turf Sprint at 13-1 odds, she’s almost assured the same kind of tactical blue print behind so much speed in this tougher race. She tapped out in the 85-89 BRIS late pace figure range in multiple turf sprints, which is why she’s been second twice as often (6 times) as she’s won (3). Bottom at best again.

#7-FLAMINGO WAY: Late rally has been a bit flat late in turf sprint stakes, but the effort has been there. Clearly improved since coming to Guadalupe Preciado last fall, but just not able to catch up to Moon Spun in 2 similar spots of late. Jockey Jose Morelos is winning 23% in turf sprints at the current GP meet with a positive ROI, so she’s in good hands.

#8-ME GOVERNOR: Kind of spun her wheels last out on synthetic and should appreciate the return to turf, where 3 of her 4 career wins have come. Layoff since November brings a fresh 4-year-old to the party and she’s working like she’s sharp. Trainer Carlos Davis is 4-for-7 with limited turf sprinters at the meeting and jockey Mario Gutierrez has been a money rider with 5 stakes wins from just 13 mounts at the Championship Meet.

#9-TWIRLING QUEEN: Speedster couldn’t get in front of Moon Spun in the Ladies Turf Sprint and that scenario saw her give way to a well-beaten fourth. Given the posts, she’s like chasing that one into and off the far turn as well. Luis Saez returns to Gulfstream after trying Oaklawn this winter and reunites with a former winning mount.

#10-COCO ABARRIO: Allowance winner takes on easily the toughest test of her career from a difficult post. Best trip may require her dropping back farther than usual and trying to make a rally.

#11-PANDORA’S GIFT (pictured): September layoff returnee makes her Gulfstream Park debut, but was highly competitive from Keeneland to Saratoga to the Presque Isle Masters on multiple footings. She was a pure turf sprinter in the UK and will be right in hunt off a series of 6 Payson Park workouts on the deep training track. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione’s 8 stakes wins at the current meet lead all riders.

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
MOON SPUN is 9-for-9 in the trifecta lifetime, undefeated in 3 Gulfstream starts and the rail wins 11% in full-field turf sprints at Gulfstream, second-best to post 6 with 12%.

Best Longshot Contender:
FLAMINGO WAY and ME GOVERNOR are both 12-1 morning line and offer a ton of appeal as my exotics keys under the logical players.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$5 trifecta part-wheel MOON SPUN with FLAMINGO WAY, ME GOVERNOR with ALL ($90). $5 exacta part-wheel PANDORA'S GIFT with FLAMINGO WAY, ME GOVERNOR ($90).

**ConleyPicks** · 03-14-2026, 08:08 AM

Scott Shapiro: Colonial Downs VA Derby Day Late Pick 4 Hit & Split Analysis | Saturday, March 14, 2026

by Scott Shapiro

Saturday marks one of the biggest days on the racing calendar in the Commonwealth of Virginia. It is Virginia Derby Day at Colonial Downs and for the second year it is held in the spring as part of a 3-day special meet. The 10-race Saturday card includes a late Pick 4 sequence that has three stakes races and 1/ST Bet and Xpressbet have a 2 Million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split to add to the fun. As always, just remember to register for the new promotion. Here is how I am attacking the Virginia Derby Day late Pick 4.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 7: Sandy Bottom
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 7 Runaway Diva; 6 Eunomia
Backups: None

Forecast: The sequence kicks off with this $100k one-mile event for fillies and mares where I am intrigued by the horse for course, #7 Runaway Diva. The Runhappy mare comes in having hit the board in 7 straight races, including a pair of runs over this surface last summer. She has shown an affinity for this unique one-turn configuration and draws outside, which should give jockey Julien Leparoux options in this compact group of 7. I will use her along with the more obvious 6-5-ML favorite #6 Eunomia to kick things off.

Race 8: Virginia Oaks
Grade: X
Main Ticket: 3 Bottle of Rouge
Backups: None

Forecast: #3 Bottle of Rouge was made the 6-5-ML favorite in this year’s Virginia Oaks after her win last month in the Sunland Park Oaks. The Vino Rosso filly has done little running outside of her sixth-place effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) last fall and should find herself in a perfect early spot a few lengths off the pace of #1 Dazzling Dame and #4 Kadabra. Flavien Prat will be aboard this $100,000 Keeneland September ’24 purchase for the first time. She should relish the one-turn 1 1/16-mile configuration at Colonial Downs.

Race 9: Virginia Derby
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 5 High Camp; 9 Ocelli; 7 Incredibolt
Backups: None

Forecast: The third leg is the feature, which not only rewards 50 points to the winner on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard, but also is part of 1/ST BET and Xpressbet’s ongoing Triple Crown Prep Race Money Back Special. Most of you know by now, but for those who do not, it is used much like insurance since you get up to $10 back on your Win bet if your horse finishes second or third. As always just remember to register.

I will try to beat the ML favorite #1 Buetane and second choice #8 Confessional in this $500k 9-furlong affair with a trio of horses for barns hoping to make their first major impression on the Triple Crown trail in the near future. One of them is #5 High Camp. The Instagrand colt ran well on debut in Florida to finish second and backed it up with an off the pace victory in his first start as a 3YO. He has to prove himself at a mile or longer, but has a lot of talent and retains hot riding Johnny V. I also like #9 Ocelli. The maiden has kept better company over his last two starts than he encounters today and can absolutely finish with energy. If they go at it early, he should be rolling late. Finally, I will include #7 Incredibolt. I doubt he goes off at anything close to his 10-1-ML offering, but his last was too poor to believe. If he gets back to his runs at Churchill Downs last winter, he very well could earn himself a spot in the starting gate in Louisville on the first Saturday in May.

Race 10:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6 Freedom Road; 7 Maclean’s Rook; 1 Seeking Unity; 4 Dr Ruben M
Backups: None

Forecast: The finale is a second-level allowance at 1 1/16-miles where I will try to beat 2-1-ML favorite #8 Lure Him In. The 11-time winner brings the strongest resume in and draws favorably outside the main speed, but has a spotty pattern of late. The 9YO raced last in a Florida-bred stake on January 10 and has only worked three times since. I know he won during this meet last year, but he was a far easier horse to trust in the early part of 2025. I will use a few in hopes of beating the Sam Wilensky trainee to close things out.

**ConleyPicks** · 03-14-2026, 08:09 AM

Gulfstream Park Hotlist - March 14

Mar. 12, 2026

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race – (5) Colonial Sense returns to a level where she was a close third. Gets the nod. (9) Turkish Flame was hurt by a wide trip last time. Gets a second chance here. (1) Angelic Quality may wake up in this field. (4) Starship Daytona could like the added distance. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-5-9.

4^th race – (1) First Navy Jack comes off a sharp maiden win and can make it two in a row. (2) Valiant Winter should pose a late threat. (3) Lodato fits in nicely here. (5) G Speedy can sneak into the picture at the end. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-3-5.

7th race – (2) Amberjack exits a solid second in his debut. Graduates today. (4) Final Story is a promising firster for Cox. (3) Unsearchable rallied for third in his debut and cannot be ignored. (8) Bridgesong can improve after moving too soon in his debut. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-4-8.

9th race – (1) Arbiter has yet to race on dirt but is 2-for-2 for Ward and has speed from the rail. (7) Diciassette has raced in Grade 1 company and should be the one to fear. (3) Sweeping Shadow comes off a lopsided win and cannot be ignored. (6) Fulmine will benefit from a fast pace. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-6-7.

11th race – (7) Vibe was an easy winner here in April. Has trained smartly for his comeback. (4) First Call Bob was an impressive debut winner and should be the main rival. (5) Statesman belongs in the exotics. (6) Fact can prevail on his best try. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 4-5-6-7.

**ConleyPicks** · 03-14-2026, 08:10 AM

Keeneland Select Derby Prep - Virginia Derby | March 14, 2026

Mar. 12, 2026

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

The $500,000 Virginia Derby, Colonial Downs

Race 9– The Virginia Derby brings the road to Kentucky Derby to Colonial Downs with 105 qualifying points [50-25-15-10-5] available to the top five finishers. A field of 10 was drawn to race the distance of 1 1/8 miles. 5) High Camp made two starts at Gulfstream Park moving from a second-place finish in December to a maiden victory going seven-furlongs in a field of 10 with a stalking trip. Both races got speed figures that are amongst the best in this field. (6) Lockstocknpharoah is undefeated in two starts at Turfway Park in a six-furlong maiden and a mile allowance with a front-end effort by eight lengths. His trainer opts to run on the dirt instead of next week in the Jeff Ruby at Turfway. (8) Confessionalimpressed in his debut win at Keeneland and then was second in a Gulfstream allowance. The blinkers came off in the Sam F. Davis and he stopped badly. Blinkers go back on. (1) Buetane was a first out winner at Del Mar in August and then hit the board in three graded stakes but he faded in the Southwest (G3). Betting strategy: Exacta box: 1, 5, 6, 8. Trifecta box: 1, 5, 6, 8.

**ConleyPicks** · 03-14-2026, 08:11 AM

Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | March 14, 2026

Mar. 12, 2026

Race 9 at Colonial Downs | Saturday, March 14 | Post Time 5:10 PM Eastern

Virginia Downs | Purse $500,000 | One Mile and One Eighth | Three-Year-Olds

Winning contenders: Lockstocknpharoah (6), High Camp (5)

Other contenders: Work (4), Confessional (8)

In exacta in second: Buetane (1)

Analysis and contenders:

Lockstocknpharoah (6) has won twice, both easily. His debut on December 19 was a visually impressive effort, even after he lunged at the start. He started seventh, then made a big rally from fifth at the quarter to be in front with an eighth to go, and won by two lengths. In his second start on February 7, Lockstocknpharoah led from the start, controlling and not giving any horse a shot. Even though he was in front by three lengths at the eighth, he kept stretching the lead to eight lengths. He earned a 99 Equibase Speed Figure, the best figure of any horse in the field. His trainer, Thomas Drury, Jr., is a good trainer who has won six dirt route stakes from 29 horses the past five years, and better yet, he has four (from 11) dirt route stakes winners that won their previous races. One of those, California Burrito, who won the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes last year, has the same running style as Lockstocknpharoah, and ran one mile in his prep. Lockstocknpharoahcan go to the lead early, but can also close, and he is likely to improve in his third start and second route. He is the one to beat.

High Camp (5) earned his win on February 7 in his second start after a second-place finish in his career debut. He showed a good style when he put in a kick from fourth while six wide at the eighth with hand urging to win by a length. He earned a 92 figure in the win and an 80 figure in his debut. He is likely to continue to improve. His trainer, William Walden, is an up-and-coming trainer who has 80 wins from 200 starts in 2025.

Work (4) had his first win in his sixth start. His other races were poor, but his win has style. He ran five wide and rallied to win by a neck, earning a 92 figure. Work is by Triple Crown champion American Pharaoh, who also sired Lockstocknpharoah. Although Work earned his win on turf, he has a dirt pedigree as his dam sire is Into Mischief. Bettors may underestimate him, but I think he isn’t as fast as the other top contenders.

Confessional (8) won his first start in October, then finished second in January, both sprints. His second race earned an 83 figure, so he figured to improve in his next race on February 7, a two-turn race in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, but he started third and faded to seventh. That may be due to taking blinkers off, which he had in both previous races. Blinkers come back on, and he could have a shot to improve, but he will need to run much faster from an 83, as all three of the other contenders have 92 and higher figures. I will use him second in exactas, and also with Work.

Bob Baffert’s Buetane (1) is likely to be one of the favorites. I don’t think he can win. Beutane finished third in the Southwest Stakes on February 3, after running second from the start until the quarter pole, and lost ground in the eighth. He may be best suited as a one-turn horse. Therefore, I am taking a stand against Buetane.

Win bets:

Lockstocknpharoah (6)at fair odds of 2 or 1 or higher.

High Camp (5) can be considered at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

Exactas: Lockstocknpharoah (6) and High Camp (5) over Lockstocknpharoah (6), High Camp (5), Work (4), Confessional (8), and Beutane (1).

**ConleyPicks** · 03-14-2026, 08:11 AM

Aqueduct Hotlist - March 14

Mar. 12, 2026

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1^st race [Clm 50000B, 1 mi] – (1) Royal Bubble (A) got off to a slow start, eager under restraint, and finished third. (5) Vekomancercomes back after seven days when he was third at this level after pressing the pace following a five month layoff. (3) Smokin’ Hot Kitty returned from a nine month layoff in a second level allowance and now drops in for a tag for the first time since 2024. (6) Bourbon Serengeti raced eight wide at this level a week ago.

2^nd race [Clm 30000 N2L, 1 1/8 mi] – (5) Ambridge (B) had to steady while making an inside move. (2) Egyptianhas five top three finishes in a row and drops back down after finishing third for a $50,000 tag. (6) Magnanimous Max was a maiden winner for $20,000 and was claimed by Linda Rice. (4) Apalta was a maiden $20,000 winner in November, can back last month in a starter allowance, and drops down for Rice.

4^th race [Clm 50000, 7F] – (6) Tuskegee Airmen (A) moved from last to second while rallying on a speed favoring track. (4) Big Hat Willie got his ninth victory 17 days ago in a $30,000 claimer. (2) Twenty Four Mamba returned from a three month layoff and got claimed for $50,000 after running third in an OC starter allowance. (1) Bermuda Blitz drops back to a claimer for the first time since September after winning a starter allowance and trying first-level allowances.

7^th race [Jimmy Winkfield, 6F] – (2) Easy Decision (A) was sent off as the 9-5 favorite and won his debut by more than six lengths in an eight-horse field at Aqueduct. (5) Blue Forty Two (A) rallied for second on a speed favoring track with a trainer change following a brief layoff. (4) Igniter was sixth in the Remsen (G2) on the Kentucky Derby trail before winning an allowance by more than four lengths last month. (3) Time to Roll has two wins against NY-breds and a third last time in a state-bred stakes.

Best bets: Royal Bubble (1^st); Easy Decision (7^th). Best Value: Ambridge (2^nd); Tuskegee Airmen (4^th).

@NYHotList Saturday Pick 3 Special --
Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 covers races 7-9 and includes the Jimmy WInkfield 2, 3, 4, 5 with 1, 2, 6 with 7, 8 = $24.

No.	Name	Letter last race	Today's Race	Comments
(1)	Royal Bubble	A on 2/13	1	Slow start and then was eager under restraint.
(5)	Ambridge	B on 2/19	2	Had to steady on the inside.
(6)	Tuskegee Airmen	A on 2/11	4	Rallied for second against a bias.
(2)	Easy Decision	A on 2/11	7	Open length debut winner as the favorite.
(5)	Blue Forty Two	A on 2/11	7	Closed for second on a speed favoring track.
(8)	Hurricane Kaz	C on 1/3	9	Bet down, set the pace, missed by a half-length.

**ConleyPicks** · 03-14-2026, 08:12 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Aqueduct
PURCHASE

Aqueduct - Race 4	Exacta ($1), Quinella ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 4 &5 Pick 3 ($1) (4-6), Pick 6 ($1) (4-9)
Claiming $50,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 96 • Purse: $62,000 • Post: 2:44P
(UP TO $10,788 NYSBFOA) FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 14, 2025 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000 (1.5% AFTERCARE ASSESSMENT DUE AT TIME OF CLAIM OTHERWISE CLAIM WILL BE VOID).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * TWENTY FOUR MAMBA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. TUSKEGEE AIRMEN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. THREE TECHNIQUE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. BIG HAT WILLIE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. TREATY OBLIGATION: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Cla ss Rating at the distance/surface.
2	TWENTY FOUR MAMBA	5/2	5/1
6	TUSKEGEE AIRMEN	3/1	7/1
3	THREE TECHNIQUE	7/2	8/1
4	BIG HAT WILLIE	9/2	8/1
5	TREATY OBLIGATION	6/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	TWENTY FOUR MAMBA	2	5/2	Stalker	101	97	86.8	85.6	81.6
4	BIG HAT WILLIE	4	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	95	96	77.2	77.2	70.2
5	TREATY OBLIGATION	5	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	101	83	67.0	88.0	79.5
3	THREE TECHNIQUE	3	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	105	93	56.3	91.8	85.3
6	TUSKEGEE AIRMEN	6	3/1	Trailer	97	91	51.8	93.8	87.8
1	BERMUDA BLITZ	1	4/1	Alternator/Non-contender	97	95	62.8	79.4

**ConleyPicks** · 03-14-2026, 08:13 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Sunland Park
PURCHASE

Sunland Park - Race 1	$1 Daily Double /$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta /.10 Superfecta .50 Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4)
Trial • 300 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 84 • Purse:$10,900 • Post: 11:00
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLD REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED THAT REMAIN ELIGIBLE FOR THE 2026 NEW MEXICAN SPRING FUTURITY. WEIGHT; 124 LBS. NOMINATIONS CLOSE DECEMBER 19, 2025 UPON PAYMENT OF $600.00, AN ADDITIONAL PAYMENT OF $800.00 DUE BY FEBRUARY 6, 2026, PLUS $1,000.00 DUE AT TIME OF ENTRY INTO THE TRIALS. SUPPLEMENTAL PAYMENT OF $2,500.00 DUE FEBRUARY 6, 2026 PLUS REMAINING FEES. OR A LATE SUPPLEMENTAL PAYMENT OF $12,500.00 DUE AT TIME OF ENTRY INTO THE TRIALS (INCLUDES ALL FEES). MISSED PAYMENTS (EXCLUDING ENTRY FEES) MAY BE REINSTATED AT DOUBLE THE AMOUNT FOR 30 DAYS.( FINALS TO BE RUN ON SATURDAY APRIL 4, 2026).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * JD FIRECRACKER: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
2	JD FIRECRACKER	12/1	8/1
10	MY COUSIN VINNEE	3/1	10/1
8	IMMA DANDY	8/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure

Unknown Running Style: A STREAKIN PRADA (15/1) [Jockey: Lara Abel - Trainer: Martinez Edwin A], JD FIRECRACKER (12/1) [Jockey: Medrano Gabriel - Trainer: Soto Salvador R], LADY FIRST MOON (8/1) [Jockey: Muniz Jordy Soto - Trainer: Cano Daniel A], SHE

**ConleyPicks** · 03-14-2026, 08:13 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Gulfstream Park - Race #4 - Post: 2:22pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $24,500 Class Rating: 76

Rating:

#5 G SPEEDY (ML=8/1)
#3 LODATO (ML=5/2)
#7 STAR OF ABRAHAM (ML=20/1)

G SPEEDY - When the real racing starts, this gelding should be closing strongly. Lets try to beat the morning-line choices with this gelding. Just missed last out, but ran a pretty good race. LODATO - I like to invest in this angle, a horse coming back off a sharp effort within the last month. Nice return on investment for this rider and conditioner tandem. STAR OF ABRAHAM - Likes to go to the front end and the fact that today is a shorter trip should be favorable.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 FIRST NAVY JACK (IRE) (ML=3/1), #2 VALIANT WINTER (ML=4/1), #6 LOBO GO (ML=6/1),

FIRST NAVY JACK (IRE) - Finished first in his most recent effort with a mediocre rating. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this group. VALIANT WINTER - The Brain cautions me to keep away from ponies in short distance contests that haven't finished in the money in short distance contests recently. Would have to get better off that fifth place finish last time to make an impact here. This gelding is always hitting the board, but just doesn't finish first. Difficult to bet on him on the win end. The speed rating in the last race doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class figure of today's race. Mark this animal as a likely underpriced contender. LOBO GO - This gelding didn't show me enough down the stretch run to warrant backing against stiffer competition. This gelding earned a speed rating in his last event which probably isn't good enough today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#5 G SPEEDY is the play if we get odds of 7/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**ConleyPicks** · 03-14-2026, 08:13 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - SA - 250y on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 79

QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $10,000 OR LESS IN 2024 - 2026. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 LOUISIANA MOVES 8/1
# 5 PYC FURY JM 5/2
# 10 ANNA JESS CHACHA 10/1

LOUISIANA MOVES seems to be the wager in here particularly if the morning line of 8/1 holds. This racer could shock this bunch at a decent number. Looks quite good for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid figures in short races lately. Ought to be carefully examined based on the competitive speed rating put up in the last affair. PYC FURY JM - She has been racing soundly lately while recording sharp speed figs. Stein has one of the top winning percentages in this group of horses with entries running at this distance and surface. ANNA JESS CHACHA - Exhibits the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 70 Equibase Speed Figure which is one of the strongest in this field.

**ConleyPicks** · 03-14-2026, 08:14 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase Special

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Turf. Purse: $70000 Class Rating: 104

SA - R5 - FOR CALIFORNIA BRED OR CALIFORNIA SIRED FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $21,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000 (NON-STARTERS FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $16,000 OR LESS IN

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 ITS A CINCH 4/1
# 11 GRAZED 9/2
# 6 MAURY WILLS 9/2

I've got to go with ITS A CINCH. With Hernandez getting the mount, watch out for this pony. Hernandez has one of the top rider ROI's on the grounds, returning to bettors +29 percent. Looks strong to be up on the front end at the first call. GRAZED - Must be considered in this event if only for the very good speed fig recorded in the last affair. A solid 103 avg Equibase class rating may give this gelding a distinct class edge versus this group. MAURY WILLS - Earnings per start at the distance/surface is a good handicapping angle. This horse ranks at the top in this field. Has a very strong record at the distance and surface, which makes me like this gelding.

**ConleyPicks** · 03-14-2026, 08:14 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Fonner Park - Race #6 - Post: 3:55pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,300 Class Rating: 62

Rating:

#10 IMA BOXER BOY (ML=5/1)
#1 BRADFORD (ML=3/1)
#4 SWEET MUSIC MAN (ML=12/1)

IMA BOXER BOY - I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a comeback. This gelding is sent through the entry box right back into a race in less than 10 days; this is a positive sign. This gelding's last speed fig is lofty enough to triumph here, I'll wager on him back again this time around. BRADFORD - Rider jumped on this gelding's back for the first ride on Feb 28th. Should 'know' the horse even better in today's contest. Gonzalez brings him right back. I propose you stay with this hot gelding. SWEET MUSIC MAN - If this gelding gets out of the gate cleanly, he'll be tough to catch. Coming out of the turn for home, he will have a good shot. Has much pace, and the bullring of a track will work in his favor.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 RUIZ JUNIOR (ML=5/2), #9 DAYS IN DUBLIN (IRE) (ML=6/1), #5 MOR TIGER PAW (ML=8/1),

RUIZ JUNIOR - I cannot play this frequent non-winner. Gets the job executed infrequently. No speed in this race to help this closer's chances. DAYS IN DUBLIN (IRE) - This gelding hasn't had any positive efforts in sprint races in the last couple of months. MOR TIGER PAW - A bit of a lackluster outing when this colt finished fifth. 8/1 is not pegged at the proper price for any thoroughbred in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a sprint event of late. Tough to like the downward spiraling flow (56/48/41) of speed ratings.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #10 IMA BOXER BOY on top if we're getting at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4,10] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**ConleyPicks** · 03-14-2026, 08:15 AM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Flamboro Downs

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 8
2	2	ROCKNROLL ANNIE	7/5	Harris, J Bradley - 14	477.88
1	1	BEEP BOP A LULA	7/2	Kelly, David A - 18	458.22
3	3	COZ IM SPECIAL	8/5	Galliers, Brady E - 19	454.67
5	5	LAYDEE FREIGHT	4/1	Haughan, Anthony P - 15	423.32
4	4	MCJAZZ	8/1	Obrian, Daniel R - 8	363.80
6	6	LAURAS CRUSH	6/1	Maclellan, Damian - 14	355.58

Saturday 3/14/26 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Saturday 3/14/26 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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