Saturday 3/21/26 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**ConleyPicks** · 03-21-2026, 07:32 AM

Meet the Contenders: Saturday’s Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds

by Jeremy Plonk

The $1 million Louisiana Derby tests Triple Crown hopefuls over 1-3/16 miles and provides a mix of the local stakes establishment against some of the most successful national outfits from Florida and California. It’s the last of 7 stakes on a 14-race program that begins at 1 pm ET.

Horseplayers with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet take advantage of up to a $10 money-back special promo on Triple Crown prep race win bets, featuring Saturday’s Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds as well as the Jeff Ruby at Turfway Park. Get up to $10 back if your win bet finishes second or third when you bet with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. Also play the $3,000 Exacta-Thon involving both full cards.

Let’s meet the contenders for the Louisiana Derby (Race 12):

#1-PAVLOVIAN: Santa Anita-based road warrior exits a nose victory in the Sunland Derby in New Mexico last month. That win snapped a 7-race losing streak for the Reddam Racing home-bred who competes for 2-time Kentucky Derby winner Doug O’Neill. Edwin Maldonado has the return mount on the California-bred son of Pavel.

#2-AUTOBAHN: Third-start maiden braker stretched out nicely to 1-1/8 miles at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 21 and makes his stakes debut Saturday. Brad Cox trained 2024 Louisiana Derby winner Catching Freedom, adding to his 2020 victory by Wells Bayou. Marcellino Pedroza gets the mount as Irad Ortiz Jr. opts to ride at Turfway on Saturday. Son of 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist.

#3-CHIP HONCHO: Gun Runner Stakes winner will be the only horse to compete in all 4 Louisiana Derby series races, adding a fourth in the Lecomte and second in the Risen Star most recently. Trainer Steve Asmussen won this race last year with Tiztastic, his record fifth Louisiana Derby score. Luis Saez returns to ride the Connect colt, who rematches a third time here with Golden Tempo, splitting previous decisions.

#4-UNIVERSE: Saratoga debut winner has dropped 5 straight, including a no-threat fourth in the Risen Star over this track last month. The $75K son of Global Campaign has kept top-class running lines and posted a bullet local workout for this on Saturday. Kenny McPeek saddled 2002 Louisiana Derby winner Repent. Brian Hernandez guided Girvin to Louisiana Derby glory in 2017.

#5-GOLDEN TEMPO: Lecomte Stakes winner and Risen Star third-place finisher will add blinkers for the first time. Trainer Cherie DeVaux had her Curlin colt working in company with Blue Grass-bound stablemate Reagan’s Honor while experimenting with the hood. Jockey Jose Ortiz comes into the week a runaway leader in the standings as he defends his title as leading jockey. He’s also won a current meet-best 8 stakes races with 13-27 in the exacta.

#6-SPIRIT OF ROYAL: Trainer Dallas Stewart won the 1999 Louisiana Derby with Kimberlite Pipe. He’ll be a big longshot to end that 27-year drought when this 62-1 Southwest Stakes ninth-place finisher takes another big bite of the apple. Francisco Arrieta comes in from Oaklawn to ride this 1-for-7 son of Global Campaign (same sire as Universe in this field).

#7-BLACKSMITH: The Los Alamitos Futurity runner-up took 5 tries to break his maiden, getting the job done Feb. 20 at Santa Anita as the 3-5 chalk. Bob Baffert’s lone Louisiana Derby success came with Wimbledon in 2004. Florent Geroux, who left Fair Grounds earlier this year to tack up at Santa Anita, rode him to the west coast win and makes a homecoming of sorts Saturday. The $525K son of Liam’s Map makes his first start on the road.

#8-EASTERLY: Gulfstream Park maiden breaker Feb. 7 in his second start gets his first stakes test, but note he debuted second to Class President, who exited that race to win an allowance and Oaklawn’s Rebel Stakes. Trainer Brad Cox’s second chance in this field at notching a third Louisiana Derby score since 2020. Gulfstream rider Edgard Zayas retains the mount and makes a rare road appearance.

#9-EMERGING MARKET: Fast and determined debut winner Feb. 7 at Tampa Bay Downs on the Sam F. Davis Stakes undercard. Outlasted promising Powershift for Todd Pletcher, though that one bounced badly next out when sixth in the Tampa Bay Derby on 2 weeks’ less rest. Chad Brown seeks a first Louisiana Derby score, finishing third here in 2024 with Tuscan Gold. He’s raided Fair Grounds to win the Risen Star in ’24 with Sierra Leone and last month with Paladin. Flavien Prat won this race in 2003 with Kingsbarns and 2024 aboard Catching Freedom.

**ConleyPicks** · 03-21-2026, 07:34 AM

Meet the Contenders: Saturday’s Jeff Ruby at Turfway Park

by Jeremy Plonk

Kentucky’s first of two 100-point majors en route to the 152nd Run for the Roses takes place Saturday at Turfway Park. The Grade 3 $777,000 Jeff Ruby on the Turfway synthetic precedes next month’s Grade 1 Blue Grass at Keeneland on the dirt.

Horseplayers with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet take advantage of up to a $10 money-back special promo on Triple Crown prep race win bets, featuring Saturday’s Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds as well as the Jeff Ruby at Turfway Park. Get up to $10 back if your win bet finishes second or third when you bet with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. Also play the $3,000 Exacta-Thon involving both full cards.

Let’s meet the contenders for the Jeff Ruby (Race 12):

#1-TURF STAR: Last year’s Bourbon Stakes runner-up disappointed in Gulfstream’s Kitten’s Joy in his only start at age 3. Graham Motion has saddled 3 Jeff Ruby winners in the synthetic era, led by 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom (also Adriano ’08 and Went the Day Well ’12). Jockey John Velazquez won this race in 2012 and 2014, the former teamed with Motion. The 1-for-5 colt tries blinkers for the first time after racing exclusively on turf to this point.

#2-FULLEFFORT: Potential favorite rallied for second in the John Battaglia Memorial and the Leonatus Stakes already this meet. Brad Cox looks to go back-to-back in this race after Final Gambit a year ago and become the fourth different trainer to win it in consecutive years (Mike Maker, Graham Motion, William Adams). Irad Ortiz Jr. rides here and bypasses the mount on Cox-trained Autobahn in the $1 million Louisiana Derby. Ortiz last rode Fulleffort in an October turf allowance victory at Keeneland, his only prior pairing. He piloted Field Pass to win this stakes in 2020.

#3-BAYTOWN DREAMER: Already this year has a 112-1 longshot fourth in the John Battaglia Memorial and 84-1 third in the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn. Exotics exploder trained by Paul McEntee will be ridden by Orlando Bocachica once again. He’s won just 1 of 11 and looks to snap a 7-race losing streak, but has a bullet local workout March 7 for this.

#4-TWO OUT HERO: Canadian raider had a rough trip from the far outside post 11 in the John Battaglia Memorial and tired while pursuing wide to finish ninth. That was his first start in 5 months. Returned to South Florida’s Palm Meadows winter base between starts and fired a bullet there March 14. War Front colt won last year’s Soaring Free and was third in the Grade 1 Summer behind Jeff Ruby return rival Argos. Local rider Gerardo Corrales replaces Rafael Hernandez for Woodbine leading conditioner Kevin Attard.

#5-BLACK HORNET: Fair Grounds’ Black Gold Stakes winner seeks a third straight win while changing surfaces to synthetic for the first time. The former Brad Cox trainee disappointed in 4 maiden dirt attempts but found a home on grass. Brendan Walsh trains the son of multiple champion Essential Quality. Declan Cannon rode for the first time in the Black Gold and returns in the saddle.

#6-MEDICI: California shipper led every jump but the last in a nose defeat in the Feb. 22 Pasadena Stakes. Veteran Richard Mandella and regular rider Mirco Demuro team with this Into Mischief home-bred who is 1-for-6 and a Dec. 29 maiden breaker at Santa Anita. West coasters like Endlessly (2024) and Blended Citizen (2018) have had some rather recent success in this race.

#7-MAXIMUS PRIME: The late-running, 88-1 third-place finisher in the John Battaglia Memorial has improved in all 3 starts at the meet but remains an 0-8 maiden. Anthony Mitchell trains this Maximus Mischief colt, who gets Joseph Ramos back in the irons after a solid debut pairing for them last out.

#8-CHAOS AGENT: Most lightly raced member of the field won his Feb. 5 debut at Gulfstream Park on the Tapeta surface and takes an immediate leap in class. The $350,000 Independence Hall colt overcame a tough trip to win that debut at 11-1 and now lures jockey Joel Rosario for Canadian-based trainer Josie Carroll. Dam Into Oblivion also won her debut (2014 at Del Mar) but never won again in a 10-race career.

#9-BRAVE FORCE: Co-owner Jack Oxley already has Oaklawn-based Silent Tactic firmly on the Derby trail and looks to add depth with his Feb. 29 sixth-start maiden breaker. Brave Force improved in recent starts with Lasix, but won’t have the medication by rule on Saturday. Trainer Jack Sisterson and jockey Vincent Cheminaud combine with this $145K son of Gun Runner.

#10-ARGOS: Last year’s Grade 1 Summer Stakes winner changes barns from Riley Mott – who won last week’s Virginia Derby with Incredibolt – to trainer Brad Cox. The well-traveled runner was eighth in traffic in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and was a flat fifth in his 3YO return at Gulfstream in the Colonel Liam on turf. Cox and Luan Machado seek back-to-back wins in the Ruby after Final Gambit a year ago. Machado came into the week virtually tied with Walter Rodriguez in the pursuit of the leading rider crown at the TP meet. Cox is in a similar dogfight atop the trainer standings with Kelsey Danner and Mike Maker nipping at his heels.

#11-STARK CONTRAST (pictured): Michael McCarthy won this race 2 years ago with west coast raider Endlessly and looks for an encore with this highly credentialed son of Caravaggio. Stark Contrast finished second in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Del Mar, sandwiched between a Zuma Beach score last fall at Santa Anita and his Jan. 8 return win in the Eddie Logan at The Great Race Place – all of that resume built on turf. Kazushi Kimura has ridden in all 5 starts.

#12-STOP THE CAR: The only all-dirt performer in the Ruby lineup, Brendan Walsh’s Maximum Security colt has won 2 of 3 starts. The Keeneland and Churchill 1-turn winner last season didn’t get involved Jan. 17 in the Grade 3 Lecomte at Fair Grounds when a flat seventh. Edgar Morales takes the mount for the first time.

**ConleyPicks** · 03-21-2026, 07:35 AM

Race of the Week: Saturday's Kentucky Cup Classic at Turfway

by Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
I had the honor of being trackside and working the inaugural Kentucky Cup in 1994, watching Tabasco Cat and Best Pal kick off a race that's become one of Turfway's fixtures. It was a September dirt race then, but it's recent history of a spring synthetic showcase is more important than my nostalgia. The 1-1/8 miles race for older horses will be Race 10 on Saturday's Jeff Ruby Day card that welcomes Kentucky Derby and Oaks prospects. Note a special matinee first post of 12:45 pm ET for the 13-race lineup.

Horseplayers be sure to take part in the $3,000 Exacta-Thon promotion matching the cards at Turfway and Fair Grounds for its Louisiana Derby Day on Saturday.

Field Depth:
Grade 2 winners HONOR MARIE and UTAH BEACH are joined by Grade 3 winners ENDLESSLY and MERCANTE, the latter pair having won 2 of Turfway's signature races. WILLY D'S is Grade 2-placed on dirt. Those 5 runners have kept similarly strong company lines over time. Toppling all 5 of them on the class rise will be a challenge, so demand a price if trying to get outside those names.

Pace:
TICKLED QUIST certainly will have early intent from a good post draw in the 4-hole. WILLY D'S has shown dirt pace presence and can be expected in the mix from the opening jump if he takes to synthetic. MERCANTE's best races have been near the tempo and may be hustled from an outside post, but is not guaranteed to show that zip after losing all his tempo in back-to-back fall starts and benched since. There's some coinflip here that TICKLED QUIST can be counted on early, but the others are far less certain.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-HONOR MARIE: Tremendous wake-up in the Dust Commander Stakes Feb. 14, so much so that jockey Joseph Ramos – who won this race last year aboard Mercante – opts to ride this one instead. Don’t forget he won the Kentucky Jockey Club on dirt at age 2 and there’s always been talent in the tank. His complete lack of any early speed requires a lot to go right to win, hence he’s never won back-to-back in 15 starts. But, his last race looks so very dangerous if repeated.

#2-UTAH BEACH: October layoff returnee moves barns from the retired Nacho Correas to Brendan Walsh. Fired only an even try off a similar break during the 2024 season and Walsh’s numbers following this type of break are nearly identical to his overall win rate. No-match fourth to Mercante in this race last year and might be a work and race short of his best.

#3-NAPTOWN: Longshot bottomed the superfecta in the Prairie Bayou and gets to save some ground Saturday after drawing widest in that one. Laurel-based gelding has been nibbling around the exotics in 5 straight at 5 different venues and that might be his best outcome Saturday.

#4-TICKLED QUIST: Wired back-to-back allowance races to start 2026 at Turfway, no surprise for a son of Nyquist to have success over this surface. Brad Cox trainee figures to be set on the lead while drawn inside his principal pace rival next door. There’s no guarantee that Willy D’s will take to the new footing and even force the tempo, so there’s a chance he gets loose and comfortable. His best races have come with the benefit of the slowest tempos, so the first half-mile pace will be critical to his chances late.

#5-WILLY D’S: Yet another Mike Maker $50,000 claim to go on to stakes success after the transfer. He’s been in classy company of late and fits on talent and distance. Surface will be the question for this potential pace player. He’s run 23 of 25 starts on dirt, but did win 1 of 2 on turf. Sire Lookin At Lucky wins a modest 10% with his offspring on the Turfway Tapeta. Maker is a 3-time Kentucky Cup Classic-winning trainer (2009, 2018, 2022) and tied with Bob Baffert for the most wins all-time in this race. Jockey John Velazquez has won this race on dirt (’04) and synthetic (’23).

#6-TAPIT SHOES: Eighth in this race last year, but has had a bit more break this winter coming into the race that could benefit him. Off all of January, he returned Feb. 27 with an allowance mile score that earned a whopping 105 BRIS late pace figure. Perfect prep. The kicker could be Lasix, however, as nearly all of his best efforts have come with the medication that can be used Saturday in stakes company. Demand some price, but there’s intrigue if it’s not the Lasix.

#7-ENDLESSLY: The 2024 Jeff Ruby winner returns from his Santa Anita home base for the first time in 2 years looking to regain glory. He’s lost 8 straight since then, all on turf, from New York to California at the higher levels of racing. Trainer Michael McCarthy’s Oscar Performance horse will need the pace to come back and should appreciate the 9-furlong trip as his most effective. Stablemate Stark Contrast is favored in the Jeff Ruby under Kazushi Kimura, who could be set for a big day.

#8-WADSWORTH: Public loves this Brad Cox trainee, favored in 6 of his last 9 starts and 5-2 or less in 7 straight. With Irad Ortiz Jr. in town to ride Fulleffort for Cox in the Jeff Ruby, this one’s going to attract a ton of attention from the national simulcast audience on connections alone. That likely leads to an underlay price on a runner who finished fourth in both local stakes attempts. After missing all of 2025, his Feb. 27 return race was a good allowance prep at a mile, but it’s an identical form cycle to his Prairie Bayou fourth at 7-5 odds in a previous go at this spot in the ledger.

#9-MERCANTE: Nun the Less (2019-2020) is the only horse to win back-to-back editions of this race. Though he’s 3-for-4 at Turfway, regular rider Joseph Ramos hops seats to pilot Honor Marie on Saturday as Wilson Rodriguez picks up the mount. The 6-year-old Gun Runner gelding hasn’t raced since November and has run decent thirds and fourths off similar past layoffs. High-percentage trainer Brian Knippenberg doesn’t have a bit outfit, so you know it was critical for him to this one to this lucrative race. Think a prep may have benefitted, but Mercante missed 3 weeks on the workout tab in Jan-Feb that might explain the lack of a tuneup.

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
HONOR MARIE will be coming with a run and could get all of it with the right set-up, and at least part of it even if not.

Best Longshot Contender:
TAPIT SHOES at 8-1 morning line has a really good pattern for this race in his development and should be at least this price or more.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$25 exacta key-box HONOR MARIE with TAPIT SHOES and TICKLED QUIST ($100).

**ConleyPicks** · 03-21-2026, 07:37 AM

Scott Shapiro: Triple Crown Prep Selections / Analysis | Louisiana Derby & Jeff Ruby

by Scott Shapiro

The time is getting closer. The start of the Triple Crown in Louisville is a little over six weeks away meaning the biggest round of Kentucky Derby qualifiers is upon us. It starts this Saturday with a pair of 100-points to the winner events east of the Mississippi. The Louisiana Derby (G1) at Fair Grounds and the Jeff Ruby (G3) at Turfway Park are the headliners and of course both are included in our ongoing “Triple Crown Prep Races Money Back Special” promotion. Remember, you get up to $10 back on your first Win bet if your horses finishes second or third. The insurance is great, but here are my thoughts on I like to win each prep.

Louisiana Derby (G1), 6:42 eastern

This year’s Louisiana Derby did not come up as strong as some of the other final preps will over the next couple of weeks, but it essentially rewards two horses with a spot in the Derby starting gate nonetheless. The field lacks depth making debut maiden winner #9 Emerging Market the likely first or second choice when all is said and done. The Klaravich Stables colt ran a huge number on all metrics in besting Powershift at Tampa Bay Downs in early February, but that runner-up did not come back to perform well in his first start versus winners raising questions. That said, the Chad Brown trainee offers the most upside in the field and attracts Flavien Prat.

Emerging Market may be the best hope as a Triple Crown prospect in this group, but #3 Chip Honcho is the likeliest to run his race. The son of Connect is not flashy, but has been consistent through five starts. Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen took the blinkers back off Chip Honcho last out and he still showed speed, but was beaten in the final strides by Paladin. The stable mate of Emerging Market is one of the Derby favorites heading into the Blue Grass (G1), so the loss was not overly concerning, but Chip Honcho did have things his way. With Luis Saez back aboard, he should have his way early again in a race without much serious speed signed on. I will roll with the Gun Runner S. winner with the first of my two Money Back plays on Saturday evening.

Play: #3 Chip Honcho

Jeff Ruby Stakes (G3), 6:25 eastern

The deeper and more competitive qualifier comes less than 20 minutes earlier in Northern Kentucky with the $777,000 Jeff Ruby Steaks. The event of course is over Turfway Park’s all-weather surface raising questions annually, but the 100-points awarded to the winner certainly earns them a spot in the 20-horse starting gate in early May. Recent history proves that some of those that run well in Florence’s biggest race certainly belong in the field despite their lack of dirt form heading in. The same will be true in 2026 as the field of 12 lacks runners with dirt form outside of #12 Stop the Car, but there is some legitimate talent in this contest each year no matter how you slice it. The field is led Southern California import #11 Stark Contrast. The Amerman Racing Stables runner has won 3 of 4 since moving to two-turns on the turf, but tries the all-weather for the first time. Trainer Michael McCarthy won this race in 2024 with Endlessly and obviously holds a strong hand this year, but I prefer a colt that will provide much greater value.

#4 Two Out Hero made his first start off a five-month break last month in the Battaglia Memorial after a strong third-place finish in the Summer (G1) to end his 2YO season. Going into the Battaglia, it looked like a likely prep for this race by trainer Kevin Attard to set him up for a big run in this Ruby. Unfortunately for his connections, Two Out Hero stumbled big time at the start costing him greatly from his far outside draw. The War Front colt made a middle move before tiring badly, but the result last out means little to me. Now, the Gold Square LLC runner moves inside, has a race over this surface, and should offer solid value off of the poor performance on February 21. Gerardo Corrales will take the call for the first time on this $240K Keeneland September 2024 purchase.

Play: #4 Two Out Hero (8-1 ML)

**ConleyPicks** · 03-21-2026, 07:38 AM

Scott Shapiro: Louisiana Derby/Jeff Ruby Day Exacta-Thon Plays

by Scott Shapiro

With about six weeks left until they break from the gate for the Kentucky Derby, it is time for the final round of Triple Crown preps. The first of three huge weeks for 3YOs gets started with a pair of 100-points to the winner races. The Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds and the Jeff Ruby (G3) at Turfway Park may not offer us a glimpse at the 2026 Derby winner, but they will go a long way and shaking out the field for the first Saturday in May.

As you have come to expect, 1/ST Bet and Xpressbet have yet another fun promotion to celebrate the big days in New Orleans and Florence. This time it is a $3000 two-track Exacta-Thon with the goal of connecting on 3 different $2 exactas over the course of the day at both venues. Those able to successfully do so will split the $3k. Here are a couple of exactas at each track I will be using as part of my Exacta-Thon approach.

Fair Grounds, Race 3

My first play on the 14-race Louisiana Derby card comes in this two-turn MSW event for 3YOs over the main track where I will key #8 Tiernanogue. The son of Quality Road has failed to hit the board through three starts for trainer Brendan Walsh, but ran a bit better than looks on Risen Star Day. In that mid-February start over this same surface and distance, Tiernanogue was caught wide into the first turn and raced against the flow chasing gate-to-wire winner Awesome Gem. He has to get a little better out of the gate, but I am hopeful the move back to Brendan Walsh’s main man Tyler Gaffalione will lead to improved speed and a career best run from this Mulberry Racing colt. I will key him with a #4 Direct Strike and #6 Double Entendre. Both colts make equipment changes in hopes of leading to their first lifetime score.

Play: Exacta Key Box 8 with 4+6

Fair Grounds. Race 12, Louisiana Derby (G2)

As I discussed in my Triple Crown Money Back Offer blog from Thursday, this is not the strongest edition of the Louisiana Derby. That said, I am hopeful it allows me to knock down one of the needed exactas for the promotion. #3 Chip Honcho failed to seal the deal last out in the Risen Star (G2) despite having things all his way. That said, he lost little in defeat when nailed at the wire by one of the Derby favorites at this point Paladin. The Steve Asmussen trainee showed improvement and still the same speed without blinkers last out and should control the tempo again under Luis Saez. I like his chances of getting to the wire first for the third time in his career. #9 Emerging Market is likely to go off as one of the favorites and understandably so. The Candy Ride colt ran huge at two-turns on debut at Tampa Bay Downs. He has to prove himself at this level, especially with the way Powershift ran in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), but it appears the talent is there to be a factor in the Triple Crown this spring. He may have to overcome a soft early pace though from his far outside draw giving Chip Honcho the edge in this year’s
Louisiana Derby.

Play: Exacta 3-9

Turfway Park, Race 10, Kentucky Cup Classic (G3)

The pace should be honest in this 9-furlong affair over the all-weather given the presence of #4 Tickled Quist and #5 Willy D’s. This should set things up for #1 Honor Marie. The son of Honor Code competed in the 2024 Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, but struggled through his 4YO season winning just 1 of 6 races. Trainer Whit Beckman opted to keep Honor Marie in Kentucky this winter and the plan proved to be a good one when he romped home to an off-the-pace victory in the Dust Commander. The inside draw and his turn of foot over this surface should bode well for the $40k Keeneland September ’22 purchase. I will play the late runner over #2 Utah Beach and then box him with #8 Wadsworth.

Play: Exacta 1-2 and Exacta Box 1+8

Turfway Park, Race 12, Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3)

Some may not agree with this 1 1/8-mile event rewarding as many points as it does on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard, but I am more bullish. While most of these are not dirt horses at the early point of their careers, history tells us that runners exiting these preps recently at Turfway Park are capable of running well on the surface switch. I am not sure if that is the case this year, but I am looking forward to gambling on #4 Two Out Hero. The War Front colt raced for the first time off a 5-month layoff in the Battaglia Memorial and unsurprisingly did not fire his best shot. The Kevin Attard trainee stumbled at the start from his far outside draw basically costing him all chance. He got something out of the race though making a middle move before understandably tiring badly in the lane, which I think sets him up for a career best run on Saturday. I will play Two Out Hero on top of a pair of logicals for the sake of the promotion and then of course bet him to Win as well.

Play: Exacta 4 with 2+11

**ConleyPicks** · 03-21-2026, 07:39 AM

Scott Shapiro: Santa Anita Spot Plays | Saturday, March 21, 2026

by Scott Shapiro

In addition to the great stakes action in Northern Kentucky and Louisiana this afternoon, the racing continues at 1PM local time at the Great Race Place. The Santa Anita Saturday slate is 9-races headlined by the San Luis Rey (G3) at 10-furlongs over the grass. Here are a few horses I like most today in Arcadia. The Sunset 6, matching the final 3 races at Gulfstream and Santa Anita today, has a $10,767 carryover and includes a pair of my key plays on the card.

Race 1
The opener is a MSW for 3YO fillies at 1 1/8-miles over the Santa Anita turf and I have quite a bit of interest in second-time starter #1 Mass. The Not This Time filly did not do any real running on debut going a route of ground over the main track, but took noticeable public support throughout the wagering. It is not as if Whitey sports strong numbers debuting horses in two-turn dirt races, so I made note. Now, McCarthy moves this $610k FTS August ’24 purchase to the grass and legs up Juan Hernandez. Her pedigree suggests a move forward could certainly come on the surface switch and she draws favorably along the inside for her second career start. Hopefully we get at least the ML offering.

Play: #1 Mass (5-2 ML)

Race 8
#3 Code Duello has proven to be a cool horse throughout his 37-race career. Not only has he won 5 of 16 over the turf, but he has won at night at Los Alamitos in an 870-yard contest, as well as at one mile over the Fair Grounds lawn. He has certainly proven versatile over the years and last time almost did so again when he opted to stalk off the pace, instead of go to the front like he did in his most recent victory in mid-January. I thought he ran well to finish third beaten less than a neck versus better going 6.5-furlongs on February 21 and now moves back to the main track. Hector Berrios stays onboard and should be able to find a perfect stalking spot just off a contentious early pace. I will take my chances he gets back to his best on surface switch.

Play: #3 Code Duello (3-1 ML)

Race 9: San Luis Rey (G3)

The aforementioned feature at 1 1/2-miles over the lawn has a noticeable lack of early speed enters. There is a chance that leads to a bunched field early and sprint to the wire late that benefits those with strong closing kicks, but I will take my chances in a horse that might be able to steal it on the front end. #8 Watsonville (pictured) makes his third start off the bench for trainer Mark Glatt after a pair of solid runs going a mile over this course to start 2026. Glatt sheds the blinkers and legs up Hall of Famer Mike Smith on the 2-time winner of this course. I am hopeful and fairly confident Smith will notice that lack of speed to his inside and give this gelding an aggressive ride early much like he has with Cabo Spirit throughout the last few years in shorter races. Hopefully, he has the stamina to get the marathon distance. The value should be there to gamble.

Play: #8 Watsonville (12-1 ML)

**ConleyPicks** · 03-21-2026, 07:40 AM

Aqueduct Hotlist - March 21

Mar. 20, 2026

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1^st race [Alw 50000s, 6 ? F] – (6) Social Hour had top three finishes in 6 out of 7 recent starts including a pair of wins while racing on the front end. (2) Oil Capital ran a career best speed figure in his second start after a short layoff following a Linda Rice claim. (3) Kid Billy was claimed from a win in a $20,000 claimer following a long layoff. (1) Farm Team was claimed twice for $20,000 after wins at Churchill Downs in November and has faltered a bit in two starts at today’s level.

3^rd race [Clm 50000B, 1 mi] – (1) Good Lord hit the board in his last three races including a starter allowance two weeks ago and before that he was claimed three times in a row for $50,000. (6) Emirates Roaddrops into a claimer for the first time since Saratoga and most recently was third in second-level allowances. (3) Magical Ways came back from a short layoff and was claimed for $50,000 where he flashed early speed. (2) Rollin in Dough has two wins to start his career back in 2024 and came back last month in a second-level NY-bred allowance after a trainer change to Amelia Green.

5^th race [Md 12500, 6F] – (3) Khali’s Storm comes back from a June layoff when she had five races in a row where she finished in the top three for $30,000. (7) Lady Meringue was last seen in June running third in a $25,000 maiden claimer for Linda Rice. (2) My Girl Aubree debuted last month for $40,000 at 3-1 for Brad Cox after showing some speed. (4) Ishkabibble makes a drop from $40,000 maiden races.

9^th race [Clm 20000, 7F] – (2) Golden Symphony makes a big drop in class from a series of $50,000 races when he had a win and a second in a starter allowance and a claimer. (9) Thrill of It comes back from a short layoff when he was second and third for a $20,000 tag. (4) Lotsa Troublewas claimed from 3 out of his last 4 starts including a third by a neck after going nine-wide two weeks ago for $16,000. (5) Riyadh Moon will drop to the lowest level of his career.

Best bets: Khali’s Storm (5^th); Golden Symphony (9^th). Best Value: Social Hour (1^st); Good Lord (3^rd).

Saturday Pick 3 Special --
Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 (covers races 1-3) 1, 2, 3, 6 with 2 with 1, 2, 3, 6 = $16.

**ConleyPicks** · 03-21-2026, 07:41 AM

Gulfstream Park Hotlist - March 21

Mar. 20, 2026

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race – (3) Pan Pan was fourth by a little more than a length last time and is overdue for a win. (2) Enjoying rallied wide last time. Should get a better trip here. (7) Tap This Way is an interesting first-time starter. (8) Aporia could be worth a look despite the layoff. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-7-8.

3rd race – (7) Tut’s Revenge won at this level last time and can make it two in a row. (1) Brother Brad drops to a level where he should be the main rival. (2) Blue Slide Park merits attention. (3) Broderick could be tough to catch here. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-3-7.

5th race – (1) Sweet Dream Ladymay be helped by a rail trip here. (2) Clean Winner had a rough trip last time. May rebound in a claimer. (6) Lady Question might move forward off her debut. (5) Idiom could contend in her debut. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-5-6.

7th race – (1) Gosger was one of the top 3-year-olds last year. Has a class edge here. (3) Forged Steel won easily last time and should be the main threat. (4) Skate Away should benefit from his comeback try. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-4.

10th race – (8) Intricate Spirit makes his first start since the Breeders’ Cup and seems ready for a solid try. (7) Arbiter was scratched for this spot and could be the one to fear. (9) Casson should not be overlooked. (3) I C Light may welcome a return to a sprint. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-7-8-9.

**ConleyPicks** · 03-21-2026, 07:42 AM

Keeneland Select Derby Prep - Louisiana Derby | March 21, 2026

Mar. 20, 2026

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

The $1 Million Louisiana Derby (G2), Saturday, Fair Grounds

Race 12 The Louisiana Derby is a [100-50-25-15-10] points qualifier on the road to the 2026 Kentucky Derby. A field of nine was drawn including four from Kentucky Derby winning trainers who will run 1 3/16 miles which is the longest distance on the Derby trail. (5) Golden Tempo made all three starts at Fair Grounds with a debut victory followed by a Derby trail win in the Lecomte (G3). Last time he was third in the Risen Star (G2). (3) Chip Honcho will have run in all four of the New Orleans stops on the Derby trail with a win in the Gun Runner, fourth in the Lecomte, and second in the Risen Star. (9) Emerging Market was a promising debut winner last month with a speed figure that towers over this field for Chad Brown. It is a big challenge to jump to a 100-point Derby prep in his second start. (8) Easterly was a maiden winner at Gulfstream Park in his second try for Brad Cox. Betting strategy: Exacta key box: 5 with 3, 8, 9. Trifecta box: 3, 5, 8, 9.
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**ConleyPicks** · 03-21-2026, 07:42 AM

Keeneland Select Derby Prep - Jeff Ruby | March 21, 2026

Mar. 20, 2026

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

The $777,000 Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), Saturday, Turfway Park

Race 12– The Jeff Ruby is a [100-50-25-15-10] points qualifier on the road to the 2026 Kentucky Derby. A field of 12 was drawn and will run 1 1/8 miles on the Tapeta track. (11) Stark Contrast will make the change from turf to the synthetic track. In four starts on the grass he won a maiden at Del Mar and the Zuma Beach (G3) at Santa Anita, was a close second in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1), and won the Eddie Logan in his 2026 debut. (2) Fulleffort made two starts this year and they were his only races on the main track at Turfway. He was second in a pair of stakes including the Battaglia on the Derby trail. (5) Black Hornet got two recent victories in a maiden and the Black Gold when he moved from dirt to turf. (8) Chaos Agent won his debut which was on the Tapeta at Gulfstream Park last month. Betting strategy: Exacta box: 2, 5, 8, 11. Trifecta box: 2, 5, 8, 11.

**ConleyPicks** · 03-21-2026, 07:43 AM

Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | March 21, 2026

Mar. 20, 2026

Race 12 at Turfway Park | Saturday, March 21 | Post Time 6:25 PM Eastern

Jeff Ruby Steaks – Grade 3 | Purse $777,000 | One Mile and One Eighth | Three-Year-Olds

Winning contenders: Chaos Agent (8), Fulleffort (2)

Other contender: Stark Contrast (11)

In exacta in second and third on trifectas: Maximum Prime (7), Black Hornet (5), Medici (6), Brave Force (9)

Analysis and contenders:

Chaos Agent (6) won his only race, a two-turn event at Turfway Park last month. He won professionally and made a rally from fourth on the far turn to get within a length while four wide, leading just before the final eighth pole, and won easily. He earned a 94 Equibase Speed Figure. There is only one horse faster in this field, Fulleffort (2), a 99 figure on an all-weather track. In the 2025 Jeff Ruby winner, the winner of this race, Final Gambit, also broke his prior maiden win. Chaos Agent trainer Josie Carroll has won 30 stakes races on all-weather surfaces in the past year and has won seven consecutive races in a row, mostly at Woodbine but also at Turfway. The owner, Pin Oak Stud, recently had Incredibolt win the Virginia Derby and will have another horse on the Road to the Derby. Chaos Agent can improve again to win this race.

Fulleffort (2) finished just a neck behind in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes a month ago with a strong kick, earning a 99 figure. That was his fourth improvement in rating, and he should get better again. In the John Battaglia, Fulleffort was 10th for the first half mile, then he was still ninth at the quarter pole when he ran five paths wide. He was still fifth with an eighth to go and just barely missed winning. Both Fulleffort and Chaos Agent have history in their favor, as three successive winners of the Jeff Ruby won their previous races on all-weather tracks. Fulleffort gets Irad Ortiz, Jr., who rode him to his only win by five lengths in October. Trainer Cox won the 2025 Jeff Ruby with Final Gambit, and he could win this race again.

Stark Contrast (11) won his latest race, the Eddie Logan Stakes in January, on turf at Santa Anita. He ran faster than any horse in the field in his last race, earning a spectacular 107 figure. Previously, the colt has won three races and missed by less than a length in the Group 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Stakes on October 31. Three horses in the last 10 years of the Jeff Ruby won turf stakes races immediately before this race. Considering that effort in the Eddie Logan came after a two-month layoff, and Stark Contrast has been on another two-month layoff. His trainer, Michael McCarthy, won the 2024 Jeff Ruby with Endlessly and also won his last race. He has a shot.

Win bets:

Chaos Agent (8)at fair odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

Fulleffort can also be considered at odds of 5 to 2 or higher, but his odds will be lower than Chaos Agent.

Stark Contrast (11) is considered fair at odds of 7 to 2 or higher.

Exactas:

Chaos Agent (8), Fulleffort (2) over Chaos Agent (8), Fulleffort (2), Stark Contrast (11), Maximum Prime (7), Black Hornet (5), Medici (6), Brave Force (9).

Chaos Agent (8), Fulleffort (2), Stark Contrast (11) over Chaos Agent (8), Fulleffort (2), Stark Contrast (11), Maximum Prime (7), Black Hornet (5), Medici (6), Brave Force (9).

**ConleyPicks** · 03-21-2026, 07:44 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Louisiana Downs
PURCHASE

Louisiana Downs - Race 3	Daily Double / Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta .50 Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) / 0.50 Pick 5 (Races 3-4-5-6-7)
Optional Claiming $20,000 • 220 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $12,000 • Post:2:25P
QUARTER HORSE 220Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 21, 2025 OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * FEATURED PROSPECT: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. G AMTRAK B: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. DYNASTY BLOOD: Horse ranks in the top three in Trac kMaster Power Rating. EYE ROCKIN ROLL: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SHESA OTOOLE YAWLS: Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
6	FEATURED PROSPECT	6/1	9/2
9	G AMTRAK B	3/1	7/1
8	DYNASTY BLOOD	9/2	8/1
5	EYE ROCKIN ROLL	7/2	8/1
3	SHESA OTOOLE YAWLS	20/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	PYC ROYAL TIME	1	15/1	Fast	84	73	2.9	0.0	0.0
2	VA BEBE VALENTINES	2	15/1	Average	83	81	4.5	0.0	0.0
3	SHESA OTOOLE YAWLS	3	20/1	Slow	86	79	0.0	0.0	0.0
4	SEPERATE EM FAST	4	8/1	Average	92	74	0.0	0.0	0.0
5	EYE ROCKIN ROLL	5	7/2	Slow	84	83	6.8	0.0	0.0
6	FEATURED PROSPECT	6	6/1	Average	97	85	4.6	0.0	0.0
7	GIGI DE CARMEN	7	12/1	Slow	86	78	9.7	0.0	0.0
8	DYNASTY BLOOD	8	9/2	Average	85	83	0.0	0.0	0.0
9	G AMTRAK B	9	3/1	Average	85	84	5.4	0.0	0.0
10	EL TURISTA	10	8/1	Fast	88	73	2.2	0.0	0.0

**ConleyPicks** · 03-21-2026, 07:44 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fair Grounds
PURCHASE

Fair Grounds - Race 9	$1 WPS / $1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / $1 Daily Double $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 9-11) / $0.20 Crescent City Jackpot Pick 6 (Races 9-14) $1 BAYOU BLUEGRASS PICK 5 (New Orleans Cl
Stakes • 1 1/8 Miles • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR:112 • Purse: $500,000 • Post: 4:04P
NEW ORLEANS CLASSIC S. PRESENTED BY HAGYARD - GRADE 2 FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $500 BY SATURDAY, MARCH 7. $2,500 TO ENTER, $2,500 ADDITIONAL TO START. SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATIONS OF $10,000 WILL BE ACCEPTED AT TIME OF ENTRY WHICH SHALL INCLUDE ALL FEES. $500,000 GUARANTEED OF WHICH 60% TO THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 4% TO FOURTH, 2% TO FIFTH AND 1% TO FINISHERS SIXTH THROUGH NINTH. WEIGHT: 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A GRADE I OR GRADE II SWEEPSTAKES AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE DECEMBER 21, ALLOWED 2 LBS., NON-WINNERS OF A SWEEPSTAKES AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 21, ALLOWED 4 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $85,000 AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE THEN ALLOWED 6 LBS. STARTERS TO BE NAMED THROUGH THE ENTRY BOX BY THE USUAL TIME OF CLOSING. THE NEW ORLEANS CLASSIC PRESENTED BY HAGYARD WILL BE LIMITED TO FOURTEEN (14) STARTERS. PREFERENCE WILL BE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING MANNER: GRADED OR GROUP WINNERS IN ORDER (I, II, III), THEN HIGHEST LIFETIME EARNINGS. ANY HORSE EXCLUDED FROM RUNNING BECAUSE OF TH

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Trailer. CORPORATE POWER is the Lone Trailer of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * TOUCHUPONASTAR: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(spri nt or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. NOT THIS BOY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distan ce/surface. WESTWOOD: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ACCELERIZE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at lea st 50. Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days.
2	TOUCHUPONASTAR	6/5	9/2
5	NOT THIS BOY	7/2	6/1
1	WESTWOOD	10/1	7/1
3	ACCELERIZE	3/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	TOUCHUPONASTAR	2	6/5	Front-runner	109	114	100.0	110.4	108.4
4	LIFE AND TIMES	4	6/1	Front-runner	102	99	90.3	93.2	85.7
3	ACCELERIZE	3	3/1	Front-runner	108	98	75.3	92.6	81.6
5	NOT THIS BOY	5	7/2	Stalker	108	105	101.8	105.6	101.1
1	WESTWOOD	1	10/1	Stalker	109	105	90.6	102.2	95.7
6	CORPORATE POWER	6	8/1	Trailer	96	101	92.3	88.4	77.9

**ConleyPicks** · 03-21-2026, 07:45 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase Special

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Stakes - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $75000 Class Rating: 89

SAN JACINTO TURF S. PRESENTED BY SIRE THERAPEUTIC HORSEMANSHIP HOU - R12 - FOR TEXAS ACCREDITED FILLIES AND MARES, FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. NO NOMINATION FEE. $500 DUE AT TIME OF ENTRY. STARTERS TO PAY AN ADDITIONAL $500. SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATIONS IN THE AMOUNT OF $2,000 MAY BE MADE AT TIME OF ENTRY AND SHALL INCLUDE ALL FEES. PURSE INCLUDES $60,000 FROM THE TTA EVENT FUND. THE PURSE TO BE

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 IMALUCKYCHARM 5/2
# 10 SKY ROCKER 7/2
# 3 BLOOD ORANGE 12/1

IMALUCKYCHARM is my choice. Vaunts reliable Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when measured up against the rest of this group. Has quite good early speed and ought to fare solidly versus this group. Recorded a solid speed fig in the last race. Can run another good one in this race. SKY ROCKER - Has decent early lick and ought to fare quite well against this group of horses in this race. This mare has posted some nice finishes in her last few starts.

Saturday 3/21/26 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Saturday 3/21/26 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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