Saturday 3/28/26 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**ConleyPicks** · 03-28-2026, 05:47 AM

Meet the Contenders: Saturday’s $1 Million Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park

by Jeremy Plonk

The most productive Kentucky Derby prep race in history looks for its follow-up to last year’s Derby-Belmont winner Sovereignty when the $1 million Florida Derby anchors Saturday’s card at Gulfstream. But recall that Sovereignty was upset in this 1-1/8 miles test last year by Tappan Street, so anything can happen in Hallandale Beach.

Horseplayers with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet take advantage of up to a $10 money-back special promo on Triple Crown prep race win bets, featuring Saturday’s Florida Derby at Gulfstream, the UAE Derby at Meydan and the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. Get up to $10 back if your win bet finishes second or third when you bet with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. Also play the $5,000 Exacta-Thon involving Gulfstream’s full card on Saturday.

Let’s meet the contenders for the Florida Derby (Race 14):

#1-ALBUS: Trainer Riley Mott looks to add a second 2026 Kentucky Derby qualifier to join his Virginia Derby winner Incredibolt. Albus broke his maiden Feb. 27 at Tampa Bay Downs in his third start and will be making his stkaes debut. Tyler Gaffalione found Florida Derby success in 2022 aboard White Abarrio.

#2-CHIEF WALLABEE: The 2-1 morning line favorite came up a neck shy in his stakes unveiling in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth and gets a rematch with the more experienced Commandment. Chief’s Wallabee’s debut win in January got some flattery when The Puma would later add a Tampa Bay Derby victory. Those 2 also renew acquaintances Saturday. Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado look to one-up the performance of last year’s Florida Derby runner-up Sovereignty and each notch their first win in this race. Son of 2014 Florida Derby winner Constitution.

#3-WAYNE’S LAW: Gulfstream’s Aventura Stakes winner has been well-traveled in recent starts, third in the Delta Downs’ Jean Laffite Stakes in November and then a front-running second in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs in February. His Davis conqueror Renegade runs back Saturday in the Arkansas Derby, while that runner’s third-place finisher and fellow Florida Derby entrant The Puma has since won the Tampa Bay Derby. Marcos Meneses is back aboard for Amador Sanchez. Sire Tiz The Law won the 2020 Florida Derby en route to a Belmont Stakes victory.

#4-COMMANDMENT: Mucho Macho Man and Grade 2 Fountain of Youth winner looks to capture three-quarters of the Florida Derby series. Trainer Brad Cox has won 4 stakes on the 2026 Derby trail: the Mucho Macho Man, Jerome, Fountain of Youth and Jeff Ruby. Outgamed Chief Wallabee by a neck in the FoY as the 2-1 favorite and will vie for the public’s choice once again. Regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr. opted to ride Saturday aboard Renegade in the Arkansas Derby, leaving the mount to fellow champion jockey Flavien Prat.

#5-REDLAND REBELS: Tampa Bay Derby fourth-place finisher reportedly will scratch and contest Oaklawn’s Arkansas Derby.

#6-NEARLY (pictured): The Holy Bull winner looks to follow a similar path as last year’s Florida Derby winner Tappan Street, bypassing the Fountain of Youth by plan to be fresher for Saturday’s main event. Nearly is 3-for-3 at Gulfstream after a troubled fall debut at Aqueduct. Trainer Todd Pletcher (8 to date) and jockey John Velazquez (6) look to pad their Florida Derby career wins records. They teamed to win 4 of those, most recently with Fierceness in 2024.

#7-TIMELESS VICTORY: 3-time local winner from 6 starts will make his stakes debut for trainer Eddie Plesa. Regular rider Jose Morelos will be at the controls following a 1-1/8 miles allowance score at the Florida Derby’s trip. No-match third vs. Nearly in a Jan. 7 allowance sprint. Damsire Nyquist won the 2016 Florida Derby a decade ago.

#8-THE PUMA: Jan. 10 debut runner-up to Chief Wallabee has battled in stakes since, running third in the Sam F. Davis before winning the Tampa Bay Derby at 7-1 odds. The Puma returns on 3 weeks’ rest of the longest test of his career. Trainer Gustavo Delgado found Kentucky Derby roses with Mage in 2023 after a second-place finish in this race behind Forte. Javier Castellano won the 2014 Florida Derby aboard Constitution.

#9-GREGARIOUS: Longshot maiden has a debut runner-up at 1-1/8 miles on his resume and takes a big leap in class. Jose Castro’s colt by Mo Town didn’t get the result you’d hope for when his Feb. 21 conqueror Autobahn finished last of 9 in last week’s Louisiana Derby after battling for the lead. Rajiv Maragh replaces Javier Castellano, who hops to ride The Puma.

**ConleyPicks** · 03-28-2026, 05:48 AM

Meet the Contenders: Saturday’s Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park

by Jeremy Plonk

The $1.5 million Arkansas Derby is America’s richest 3-year-old prep on the Triple Crown trail and has springboarded some of the biggest names in the sport. American Pharoah stormed through Oaklawn en route to the 2015 Triple Crown, as did legends like Curlin and Smarty Jones. Two years ago, Mystik Dan delivered the roses in Louisville taking this path.

Horseplayers with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet take advantage of up to a $10 money-back special promo on Triple Crown prep race win bets, featuring Saturday’s Florida Derby at Gulfstream, the UAE Derby at Meydan and the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. Get up to $10 back if your win bet finishes second or third when you bet with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. Also play Saturday's 2 Million 1/ST Rewards Points Late Pick 4 Hit & Split promo for Oaklawn Races 11-14.

Let’s meet the contenders for the Arkansas Derby (Race 13):

#1-REDLAND REBELS: Cross-entered in the Florida Derby at home at Gulfstream, but will scratch from that spot to make the road trip to Oaklawn. Gelded son of Uncle Chuck exits a fourth-place run in the Tampa Bay Derby and will have just 21 days between starts. That’s the same spacing between his debut and the lone victory on his resume, a Gulfstream turf mile last August. Patrick Biancone trains and Keith Asmussen – set to become his son-in-law in August – will ride.

#2-SILENT TACTIC: Only horse to compete in all 4 legs of the Arkansas Derby series this year, he won the Southwest while finishing second in the Smarty Jones and Rebel. Trainer Mark Casse won last year’s edition of this race with Sandman. The colt by Tacitus has been first or second in all 5 starts while employing a come-from-behind style. Regular rider Cristian Torres will be in the saddle for this Tacitus colt who has not been favored in a race to date.

#3-BLACKOUT TIME: Second sophomore start is on deck for this Kenny McPeek trainee as he and Brian Hernandez Jr. seek their follow-up to Mystik Dan’s 2024 Kentucky Derby success. Not The Time colt has won 1 of 4 starts, which include a second-place Breeders’ Futurity effort at Keeneland and a last-out fourth in the Rebel. He fired a bullet workout 13 days post-Rebel over the Oaklawn surface and has remained local after wintering at Fair Grounds.

#4-BRICKLIN: Cross-entered in Thursday’s local Hot Springs Stakes but will scratch from that race in favor of the Arkansas Derby. This Jan. 3 Oaklawn allowance winner returns to the scene following a third-place road effort in the Sunland Derby. That performance looks better after seeing Sunland Derby winner Pavlovian outrun expectations with a nose runner-up in the Louisiana Derby last Saturday. Jaime Torres rides this son of 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist for trainer Rodolphe Brisset.

#5-TAPTASTIC: The most lightly raced member of the Arkansas Derby cast debuted a winner March 8 at Oaklawn and wheels back 3 weeks later on the class hike. Trainer Steve Asmussen owns 4 Arkansas Derby crowns and has won Triple Crown events out of this path with the likes of Creator and Curlin. A fifth win would match the race’s all-time record. Half-brother to 2024 Preakness fourth-place finisher Tuscan Gold, who ran third in Louisiana Derby that spring while making just his third lifetime start. Home-bred Tapit colt for Stonestreet Stables and Winchell Thoroughbreds will be ridden by Erik Asmussen.

#6-RENEGADE: Five-time Arkansas Derby-winning trainer Todd Pletcher brings the morning line favorite from his Florida winter base. Renegade stormed home to win the Sam F. Davis at Tampa on February 7, a race flattered by third-place finisher The Puma upon a winning return in the Tampa Bay Derby. Renegade was runner-up last fall in the Remsen over the Arkansas Derby distance of 1-1/8 miles, a race won by eventual Risen Star victor Paladin, one of this year’s Kentucky Derby Future Wager favorites. Irad Ortiz Jr. opts to ride Renegade over Florida Derby contender Commandment, winner of the Fountain of Youth Stakes, which appears a significant vote of confidence for this Into Mischief colt.

#7-NAPLOLEON SOLO: Last-minute Arkansas Derby entrant reportedly will scratch in favor of running in next week’s Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.

#8-EXOSOME: Feb. 28 Oaklawn allowance winner with the addition of blinkers, the Lecomte Stakes sixth-place finisher gets another chance on the trail. Trainer Kelsey Danner returned this colt to his Kentucky homebase between starts and changes riders to Adam Beschizza, who piloted Exosome to his maiden win Oct. 19 at Keeneland. Francisco Arrieta rode last out but jumps to pilot Litmus Test on Saturday. Son of Candy Ride, who sired last week’s Louisiana Derby winner Emerging Market.

#9-LITMUS TEST: Set the pace and tired to third as the favorite in the Rebel Stakes for 5-time Arkansas Derby winner Bob Baffert. Blinkers come off for the first time on Saturday for the Los Al Futurity winner. Remained at Oaklawn between the Rebel and Arkansas Derby, working twice over the track. Local rider Francisco Arrieta takes the call as Flavien Prat – who will ride for Baffert Thursday and Friday in OP stakes – departs for a Florida Derby date at Gulfstream with Commandment for Brad Cox.

**ConleyPicks** · 03-28-2026, 05:50 AM

Frank Carulli: Oaklawn Park Fantasy Stakes Get Out Pick 3 | Friday, March 27, 2026

by Frank Carulli

Oaklawn Park offers the perfect remedy for afternoon horseplayers looking for a nice score to end the day. The “Get Out Pick 3” encompasses two 12-horse fields and the Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes, all in a 70-minute window this Friday, March 27. Our suggested ticket below wouldn’t pay $5,079 as the winners received two weeks ago, but it only costs $27 to play.

OP 10th race (6:19 p.m. EST) -- SPRINGTOWN earned his top speed figure on dirt when he stepped up and finished third at this level off the claim last out. He chased the winner in a 6F sprint that timed a full second faster than a same-day, $12,500/nw3 claimer and $16,000/nw2 in six months sprint. HE IS HEAVEN SENT finished 3-1/2 lengths behind SPRINGTOWN, but he was squeezed at the start and caught 5-wide on the backstretch before he finished evenly. He can turn the tables at an inflated price in his second start for trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez, who won with 5 of 14 first-off-the-claim runners at Oaklawn since that race three months ago. WAR MUNNY, 15-1 on the morning line, can’t seem to avoid slow starts, except in the mornings when he posted three consecutive bullet workouts, the last two from the gate in :34 and :35 seconds, respectively. He wears blinkers for the first time and drops in class, so use him on the ticket.

OP 11th race (6:54 p.m. EST) -- With the scratch of ML favorite EXPLORA, look for COUNTING STARS to be tough. She loomed boldly with a 3-wide sweep on the turn in the Honeybee and finished gamely in a photo-finish setback at the same distance as the Fantasy.

OP 12th race (7:25 p.m. EST) -- LADY BELLE impressed in her debut for half this claiming price against Arkansas-bred fillies and mares. She accelerated on the backstretch to maintain rail position, widened while in-hand on the turn and hit another gear to keep the pursuing favorites in the rearview mirror. J J’S TRUE BET can make good use of her speed today as well, and she should be used on the ticket despite a short price. In her three starts this year, she went wire-to-wire in a maiden win that came back weak (8/0-1-0 follow-up tries), dueled with a next-out winner to the stretch before fading at one mile, then battled with second favorite to the quarter pole before a repeat winner passed by both of them. HONDURAS PASSION looks to recapture her 2025 form, when she benefitted from short fields and finished third in four allowances at Thistledown. She had a rough trip last out and drew posts 9 and 10 in the two races before that.

Suggested $3 Get Out Pick 3 Ticket:
OP 10th Race: 1, 2, 5
OP 11th Race: 6
OP 12th Race: 2, 3, 8
Cost: $27

**ConleyPicks** · 03-28-2026, 05:51 AM

Race of the Week: Dubai World Cup from Meydan | Saturday, March 28, 2026

by Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
The 30th Dubai World Cup features FOREVER YOUNG as he further solidifies himself as an all-time great. The Japanese globetrotter headlines a field of 9 in the 1-1/4 miles showcase. Early bird wagering begins Friday with Saturday's first post 7:45 am ET from Meydan. The Dubai World Cup goes as Race 9 with a scheduled post of 12:40 pm ET.

Horseplayers be sure to take part $10 Money-Back Special on all Kentucky Derby preps this season with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. That includes Saturday's UAE Derby on the Dubai World Cup undercard (as well as the same-day Florida Derby at Gulfstream and Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn).

Field Depth:
FOREVER YOUNG is the most successful international dirt horse of all time and stands out on class. HIT SHOW won this race last year and obvious proven for the task with MAGNITUDE on a similar plane with him at slightly shorter trips. MEYDAAN proved his international quality in Australian classics. It would be surprising to see this race get beyond that quartet.

Pace:
WALK OF STARS likely sets the tempo with MAGNITUDE and FOREVER YOUNG in close proximity. The pace should be fair, but not overcook.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-FOREVER YOUNG: Only loss in his last 6 came in last year’s Dubai World Cup when third to completely inferior competition. Takes the same prep path via the Saudi Cup, but a year ago that race was a rugged throwdown with Hong Kong superstar Romantic Warrior and came after a Japanese winter tune-up. He’s fresher now and it’s hard to make strong case against the 4-5 morning line favorite. Japan won this race in 2024 and has finished second in back-to-back years.

#2-MAGNITUDE: Just 6 starts in the last 13 months, arguably America’s top DWC hope benefits now from missing 5 rugged months of the sophomore season and the Triple Crown grind. Steve Asmussen has had some success in the Middle East over the years and this one’s 2 losses in the past year have come to Sovereignty and Baeza, at the cream of his crop. Beat a very sharp one at Oaklawn last out in what looks like a strong prep. The 1-1/4 miles trip is still a question mark, but his brilliance is not. He couldn't outfinish Bracket Buster in the Travers for second but reasonably is a stronger horse now.

#3-HIT SHOW: Late-runner sprung improbable upset in this race last year and comes into the defense on a similar pattern to his half-length Clark Handicap conqueror Magnitude. Both got a productive prep, his at Fair Grounds, to improve his mark to a surprising 12-for-24 lifetime. He’s alternated wins and losses in 11 straight races, last doubling up in 2024. May be stronger over 1-1/4 miles than Magnitude and his local experience does not hurt the cause. The pace held extremely well last year, so his rallying victory actually looks better than many scoffed as a fluke.

#4-MEYDAAN: Tenth of 24 in the Melbourne Cup indicates his international credentials as a stayer, while the Frankel gelding has bedded down at Meydan this winter with 2 pair of wins from 3 starts. Last month’s win in the Grade 2 Al Maktoum Classic was a 10-furlong rehearsal for this in which the visuals were fantastic with him exploding late. But he’ll have to run 5-6 lengths faster to match last year’s DWC clocking. Big-money rider William Buick won this race in 2015, but it’s been a while, though his 25% win rate at the current meet tops all jockeys. Clearly best local chance.

#5-IMPERIAL EMPEROR: Eleventh in this race a year ago, top UAE conditioner Bhupat Seemar brings this 6-year-old back with just 2 official starts between bids. Dubawi gelding won both of those at Meydan, including Jan. 23 in the Grade 1 Al Maktoum Challenge when besting Tumbarumba and Heart of Honor, who re-match in the DWC. Stride was shortening that day and the 10 furlongs against tougher foes could be imposing. Still, may be best of the second tier with an outside shot at a placing. Dam Zhukova came to the US in 2017 to blow away the boys in the Grade 1 Man o’ War at Belmont.

#6-TUMBARUMBA: Quality American miler relocated to Dubai after the Breeders’ Cup and may have had his best chance in the 1-turn Saudi Cup last out. Finished a credible third in that one to Forever Young, but needs to make up 5 lengths over a distance and stretches this gelding beyond his best. Couldn’t handle Imperial Emperor in a pair of Meydan trips prior to the Saudi Cup, providing another big hill to climb Saturday.

#7-WALK OF STARS: Set the pace in last year’s Dubai World Cup and was second until the final 100 meters before settling for fourth. Raced ahead of Meydaan for much of the Al Maktoum Classic while conceding the front to a determined pacesetter. Reasonable expectation he’ll make the lead Saturday but had no response for Meydaan in their tuneup. Was a Godolphin Mile runner-up on this card in 2024 at age 5, but now at age 7 may have lost an elite step to go against milers. Mickael Barzalona stunned the 2012 DWC aboard Monterosso with one of the craziest pre-wire celebrations of all-time.

#8-HEART OF HONOR: Last year’s UAE Derby runner-up mustered fifth and sixth-place finishes in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes for the father-daughter team of Jamie and Saffie Osborne. Honor A.P. colt got well-earned time off before returning in the Fall at Meydan and eased into the local stakes scene. Hasn’t been up to the test in the last pair once the competition increased and would be a major surprise based on recent efforts.

#9-TAP LEADER: Al Maktoum Classic third-place finisher outran expectations in that one while making just his second lifetime start. Must make up 6 lengths on Meydaan alone and then worry about tackling some of better dirt horses in the world with little foundation. Kentucky-bred by Tapiture lacks any sort of classic-distance pedigree, making his pair of 10-furlong efforts to date a surprising level of success. Trainer Doug Watson has been one of the most successful conditioners in the UAE, but has yet to land a Dubai World Cup. This would be a stunner.

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
FOREVER YOUNG is 14-for-14 in the trifecta lifetime with 11 wins and is a pure, 10-furlong dirt horse.

Best Longshot Contender:
Defending champ HIT SHOW at 12-1 morning line odds rates my second-best win chance and has landed in the superfecta in 11 of his last 13 starts.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$80 exacta FOREVER YOUNG-HIT SHOW. $20 trifecta FOREVER YOUNG-HIT SHOW-MEYDAAN.

**ConleyPicks** · 03-28-2026, 05:52 AM

Scott Shapiro: Florida Derby, Arkansas Derby, UAE Derby Picks for $10 Money-Back Special

by Scott Shapiro

Just three more weeks left in our ongoing “Triple Crown Prep Races Money-Back Special” promotion that began back in early February. For those just checking in for the spring, remember to register on the promotional landing page for this offer, which rewards you up to $10 back on your first Win bet if your horse finishes second or third. We have the first of two huge Saturdays on Road to the Kentucky Derby with another massive one next weekend. Here are the horses I plan to use my Money Back insurance on in the Florida Derby, Arkansas Derby, and UAE Derby.

Florida Derby (G1), Gulfstream Park - Race 14

The Florida Derby came up strong this year with the top two from the Fountain of Youth (G2), the winner of the Holy Bull (G3), and the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) victor all set to break from the gate at 6:42 PM eastern. #6 Nearly and #9 The Puma both bring strong resumes into their first 9-furlong test, but the top two finishers from the Fountain of Youth are in a tier above them at the moment. #4 Commandment beat #2 Chief Wallabee by a neck in a big run from both colts in late February and give me no reason to expect regression in their third starts of the form cycle. The question is which one to back. Chief Wallabee appears to have the higher ceiling, while Commandment is probably more likely to fire given his foundation. This one feels like the classy Chief Wallabee’s race to lose given the inside draw and obvious talent, but if he is bet significantly harder than Commandment, I will be pivoting in terms of a Money Back Win wager. Either way, it should be a good one to close an outstanding card in Hallandale Beach on Saturday afternoon.

Play: #2 Chief Wallabee (2-1 ML)

Arkansas Derby (G1), Oaklawn Park - Race 13

Sam F. Davis winner #6 Renegade is the likeliest winner of Saturday’s $1.5M Arkansas Derby, but his resume is not strong enough for me to endorse as a wager at his 3-2-ML price. Not only does he try the unique Oaklawn surface for the initial time, but also may not get an ideal setup for his off-the-pace run. I will certainly back this Win bet up with a 6-3 exacta, but I give #3 Blackout Time a big shot to rebound from his underwhelming fourth-place effort off the bench in the Rebel (G2). On the surface, the son of Not This Time sort of just ran around the racetrack, but it felt like a clear prep with jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. more than willing to give up valuable ground throughout the race. I do not expect that to be the case on Saturday. Instead, expect the veteran rider to find a perfect pocket spot off the early leaders and hopefully have far more left to give when they turn for home. It is now or never for the runner-up in last year’s Breeders’ Futurity (G1) to Ted Noffey. At his price, I will wager he delivers.

Play: Blackout Time (6-1 ML)

UAE Derby (G2), Meydan - Race 4

The lone international race to reward 100-points to the winner on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard goes to post at 9:30 AM eastern where I will back #5 Salloom. The son of Authentic was made the heavy public choice in the Road to the Derby Conditions Stakes on February 25, but broke through the gate prior to the start and forced to scratch. It is good to see his connections opt to bring him back for this $1M event at 1 3/16-miles, which is enough for me to back him at this price. His dominant win back in late January shows that when his head is in the game, he is capable of firing a big shot. Hopefully, he fires one good enough to get him to Louisville for a big race in early May.

Play: #5 Salloom (4-1 ML)

**ConleyPicks** · 03-28-2026, 05:54 AM

Jeremy Plonk: Arkansas Derby Day Pick 4 Hit & Split for Oaklawn

by Jeremy Plonk

Saturday's Arkansas Derby Day at Oaklawn Park features a 2 Million 1/ST Rewards Point Hit & Split when you play through 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. Races 11-14 make up the sequence, which includes the $500,000 Oaklawn Mile and the $1.5 million Arkansas Derby. A couple of 11-runner maiden races add depth to the late pick 4, which gets underway at 6:22 pm ET.

I’m extremely focused on this ticket with 3 singles, 2 of which are not the morning line chalks, and will be punching multiple units on the streamlined number of combinations. Let’s get to work.

Oaklawn: Race 11 | $500,000 Oaklawn Mile
I have a ton of respect for the resumes in this race, including a Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile score by 2-1 morning line favorite Full Serrano, another Grade 1 by East Avenue at Keeneland and the rags to riches run last year by Coal Battle through the Kentucky Derby. But the now horse is Nu What’s New, and this Jimmy DiVito trainee proved that his maiden and allowance romps were no fluke when running a dynamite second in the Razorback behind the high-class Magnitude. He’ll get Luis Saez back, and while there’s other early speed in the race, none of them have kicked late with strong BRIS late pace figures like his. I’m singling Nu What’s Nu as the 3-1 morning line second choice, but if you’re gambling intra-race, Neoquous and Gun Party may have some interest underneath at 12-1 ML prices.

Oaklawn: Race 12 | maiden
In a race over 9 furlongs in which nearly every horse in the race has running lines where they’re losing margin on the winners over the final call, Banksy’s should absolutely roll by late. He’s run second in both career outings, earning a 91 and then a 101 BRIS late pace figure, the latter coming when stretched out around 2 turns. There’s plenty of distance pedigree and he served noticed March 20 with a bullet workout. He’s the 2-1 morning line second choice as Kelz comes in from Fair Grounds with 9-5 ML favoritism. Two-deep will be the approach for many in this race, but I’d rather make the single and be in for double the payout on the same-priced ticket.

Oaklawn: Race 13 | $1.5 million Arkansas Derby
Renegade, the 3-2 morning line favorite, was the most visually impressive stakes winner so far on the Kentucky Derby trail in 2026 when striding home convincingly in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. If he’s maintained that form or improved, he’ll be a handful in the 1-1/8 miles Arkansas Derby following a flashy 111 BRIS late pace figure. Todd Pletcher opted not to return his Rebel Stakes winner Class President in order to fill this slot with Renegade; that one goes next week in the Blue Grass or Wood Memorial. The Arkansas Derby pace looks honest and Irad Ortiz Jr. – who drops the mount on Fountain of Youth winner Commandment in the Florida Derby to ride here – should have him rolling late. The other main player, Silent Tactic, employs the same style. I won’t go 2-deep for that reason. If the race sets up for a closer, Renegade is the superior animal. I don’t like any of the early pace players to surprise.

Oaklawn: Race 14 | maiden
Arkansas-breds round out Derby Day and note this race for 3-year-olds and up has only 2 elders, the 4-year-olds Whitley and Own My Destiny. Whitley is the 7-5 morning line favorite and has been solid in all 3 starts while the beaten favorite each time. Irad Ortiz Jr. is going to draw a lot of money and helps the cause, but the cold nature of the Ron Moquett barn this season and the colt’s 3 losses as a favorite give reason to add coverage. Own My Destiny raced in open company at Delta Downs and was traveling easy, wasn’t urged on the turn, and then came back on a bit in the lane but the winner was already clear on the short stretch. He’s 20-1 morning line, sire Hamazing Destiny was a top-class sprinter over this track and this will be my sneaky, upset choice. I’m also including the fast-working debut runner Our Vekoma Ride (10-1 morning line). The Matt Shirer trainee had 6 perfectly spaced works for the debut and lures Luis Saez (jockey-trainer combo a very strong 6-16 together since the start of 2025).

The Ticket:
7 with 2 with 6 with 3,2,5 = $1.50 for each 50-cent play

**ConleyPicks** · 03-28-2026, 05:56 AM

Brian Nadeau: Gulfstream Florida Derby Day Full-Card Picks

by Brian Nadeau

Gulfstream Park handicapper Brian Nadeau provides his analysis for all 14 races on Saturday's Florida Derby Day card.

Race 1: Curlin Florida Derby Day kicks off with 3 SARATOGA FLASH getting the call off a tons-the-best win against lesser, and with Drexler hitting at 23% off-the-claim, he can handle the rise. They’re all looking up at 5 FAVORABLE SCENARIO, who will like getting back to the turf for Brown, is proven at the level, and has more upside than anyone here. The pair of AM works (viewed on XBTB) from 4 ASHLEY’S ARCHER have impressed, so he looks live off a September layoff, and his one win came on turf too. SELECTIONS: 3-5-4-2

Race 2: For a second it looked like 6 MONSTROCITY was going to keep going in his dirt debut before settling for 3rd, but that was a big run, he may not have to work as hard up front, and this is a bit of a mixed bag as well. If 4 BRIDGESONG improves on that solid 4th in his debut the rest are in trouble, as he middle moved before tiring late, in what was a fast race, and a key race also. Expecting better from the well-bred 9 SOVEREIGN LAW after a no-show debut where he was inside for much of the way. SELECTIONS: 6-4-9-2

Race 3: The Cutler Bay—the first of 10 stakes on the card—looks like a good spot for 5 LEARNTODISCOVER to make his U.S. debut after a solid 2yo campaign in Europe, and the way he outworked stablemate 2 IMMORTALISED (viewed on XBTV) on the 20th says he’s primed off the seven-month layoff. No doubt ‘Immortal has a recency edge, and a homecourt one too, as he’s 2 for-2 here, but the thinking is his ‘mate is just too much racehorse. The price will be right on 1 KNOTY KNICKS, who held his own against two of the best 3yos turfers on the ground all winter long, and always fires. SELECTIONS: 5-2-1-4

Race 4: The Appleton is all about the recent form of 6 QUATROCENTO, who exits a G3 win at Tampa, should trip out beautifully just off the speed, and will get first run on the favorite too. A six-month layoff after a trio of poor runs makes you wonder what we’ll get from 7 SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS, who doesn’t appear to be the same horse who won the G1 Pegasus World Cup Turf here 14 months ago and is worth trying to beat at short offs. Not sure a cutback to 1m will helps stretch running 9 BEACH GOLD pick up a win, but he’ll run on for a share. SELECTIONS: 6-7-9-4

Race 5: Florida breds 9 ROAR READY and 7 ADIOS NOW both enters off dominant state-bred wins, and while each could bounce facing open foes, this seems like the right kind of group to see if they can handle the rise, with the former preferred based on his off-the-pace. A spotty worktab makes 2 JIMMY’S DAILYS a bit iffy off a 11/1 layoff and trainer switch, so let’s watch one today. SELECTIONS: 9-7-2-10

Race 6: The word was out on 7 TALBINGO in his turf debut, and he made 6-5 look like a steal the way he streaked off to a win, in an effort that says he’s just getting started. Don’t sleep on 3 PRIVATE THOUGHTS, who has strong turf form but has been doing the Tapeta thing of late, while 4 PASS THE HAT got an epic pace meltdown last time and may not be as fortunate facing better here. SELECTIONS: 7-3-4-2

Race 7: Was looking to beat 2 GRANDE at a short price in the G3 GHOSTZAPPER, as his fast comeback win was also done in a very taxing manner, but he could regress and still handle this modest group easily. A return to two turns will agree with 4 CAPITAL IDEA, who has solid route form and legged up for this in a Tampa sprint. Not sold on 8 STEAL SUNSHINE as a two turn horse, and his lack of speed hurts too. SELECTIONS: 2-4-8-5

Race 8: Class and expected firm ground mean 7 BELLEZZA will be tough in the G3 Orchid, as her form has been impeccable when she gets her footing, and this is a great group to start her year off against. The tactical speed of 5 SPEED SHOPPER will get her first run, which is what she did when reeling in front-running 1 AYRA STARK to win the G3 Clement here 1/24. SELECTIONS: 7-5-1-2

Race 9: The rematch between 6 SHE BE SMOOTH and 5 PROM QUEEN in the G2 GP Oaks should be a thriller, and while the former was 2 1/2 lengths to the good when they met in their debut in 1/23, and was stunning winning the G2 Davona Dale by 6 in her last, the way the latter broke her maiden at this trip by 8, with trouble too, says she’s maturing by the day and can reverse the decision, in a race that can catapult both to Churchill Downs as legitimate Kentucky Oaks contenders. You get two-turn experience with 4 JUST SINGING, who was a decent 3rd to a good filly in the G2 Rachel Alexandra at FG. SELECTIONS: 6-5-4-2

Race 10: It’s Best Bet time with 9 SECRET HIDEAWAY in the Sanibel Island, as the Euro import looked great outworking stablemate 10 SMEXY on the 13th (viewed on XBTV), showed quality last year at 2, and gets to stretch out as well. Smexy seems to have a bit of quality too, and should also like the distance, so she’s a nice insurance policy to have. The best of the locals may be 3 VEKOMA VIEW, who was pressed then streaked home to win her turf debut. SELECTIONS: 9-10-3-2

Race 11: Graded stakes winning 3yos who return at 4yo hold the aces in the Army Mule, with the stalking style of 10 OWEN ALMIGHTY getting the call over the brilliant speed of 9 MACHO MUSIC, who meets plenty of pace rivals. A freshening and some class relief may help get the classy 3 SCOTLAND back on the beam. SELECTIONS: 10-9-3-2

Race 12: It’s Longshot time with 4 HANG THE MOON in the Sand Springs, as she closed like a wild horse to win her local debut for Saffie, and was a proven graded stakes horse in California, which means this rise won’t be too much for her. That was some comeback win by 3 SWEET REBECCA, who was much better than the 1-length margin at the wire, and considering that was her first start off a June layoff and first for Walsh, she’s scary with that behind her. She’s tough to trust, but 10 CANDY QUEST is mighty good when she fires, and will like the cutback after running 1 3/8 in her last. SELECTIONS: 4-3-10-6

Race 13: It’s all systems go for 6 DASHMAN in the G3 Pan American, as he was a short horse running a short distance in his comeback, but now stretches out to 1 1/2 miles, a trip he won the G3 McKnight over here last year. Multiple G1 winner, $2.4 million earner, and defending champion 7 FAR BRIDGE returns at 6 off a 9/27 layoff, while prepping for bigger, so now is the right time to try and beat him. Not sure 1 CORRUPTION is as good as the horse who was beaten just a neck by ‘Bridge in this last year, but his speed must be respected. SELECTIONS: 6-7-1-8

Race 14: An absolutely tantalizing renewal of the G1 Curlin Florida Derby is again the best Kentucky Derby prep, and at the end of the day it looks like 4 COMMANDMENT is simply the best horse and the most likely to relish the added distance he gets here, as he had plenty in reserve when defeating 2 CHIEF WALLABEE in the G2 Coolmore Fountain of Youth at the short stretch finish line, while once again galloping out huge, so at a true 1 1/8 miles today, he looks primed to do it again. The somewhat forgotten horse is 6 NEARLY, as he skipped the FOY after wowing with a devastating win in the 1/31 G3 Holy Bull over the short stretch, but the waters are a lot deeper today, and if he’s chasing another hot pace like he did last time, he may not have as much in the tank for this much more demanding trip. There’s two schools of thought on ‘Chief; one which says he’s just tipping the iceberg after a huge 2nd in the FOY while sticking a head in front of Commandment on the far turn, while the other says he wasn’t traveling as good as the winner late and may not like the added ground, while also potentially regressing after such a huge effort just one start removed from his debut win, and in this corner, it’s the latter, so let’s make him prove it right back. You had to be impressed with 8 THE PUMA when he broke his maiden in the G3 Tampa Bay Derby while wide the entire way, but that field pales in comparison to this one, and his win was won in slow time too, so he’ll need to run the race of his life to even make an impact, let alone win this. SELECTIONS: 4-6-2-8

Best Bet: R10: #9 Secret Hideaway (2-1)
* Visually impressive outworking ‘mate
* Aggressively spotted in Europe at 2
* Should like the added ground today

Best Bet: R12: #4 Hang the Moon (6-1)
* Visually impressed in her first for Saffie
* Shows solid graded stakes form in Ca.
* Not far off the ML favorites on figures

**ConleyPicks** · 03-28-2026, 05:57 AM

Scott Shapiro: Florida Derby Day Exacta-Thon Plays

by Scott Shapiro

In addition to the ongoing Triple Crown Money Back Special I wrote about yesterday and the Hit & Split at Oaklawn Park covered by my colleague Jeremy Plonk, 1/ST BET and Xpressbet are returning with our popular Exacta-Thon promo for Florida Derby Day. A total of $5,000 is up for grabs in Hallandale Beach with the goal of connecting on as many $2 exactas as possible over the course of the 14-race card. Those who hit at least 5 will split $3,000, while the player(s) that hit the most will split an additional $2,000. Here are a few exacta plays I plan to make on Saturday at Gulfstream Park.

Race 2
The lone MSW race on the massive stakes-laden card is at one-mile over the main track and I will build around #9 Sovereign Jam. The well-bred Juddmonte Farm runner failed to fire on debut going 6-furlongs, but was against the flow and racetrack in late February. Trainer Brad Cox stretches him out to the one-turn mile and improvement should be expected. Cox is an eye-popping 6 for 10 with 3YO second-time starters over the dirt at Gulfstream Park dating back to last February. I love the fact this colt moves from the rail to the outside. If he has talent, he is likely to show it on Saturday. I will play him over Phil Bauer trained #4 Bridgesong and #5 Lost Money, but press up on the exacta with Sovereign Jam over #6 Moonstrocity. The son of Tiz the Law ran well to finish third in his first start over the main track on February 28. He still has some upside and already proved he can handle the tricky one-mile configuration in Hallandale Beach.

Play: Exactas 9-6 and 9 with 4+5

Race 7: Ghostzapper (G3)
#2 Grande came back off a ten-and-a-half-month layoff last month in an allowance event at one-turn and proved he lost little during his time away from racing. Trainer Todd Pletcher had the Repole Stable colt ready to win off the layoff with the addition of blinkers for the first time. Pletcher stretches the Curlin colt out to two-turns and finds a graded stakes field he should handle in his second try off the bench. I will chalk it up on top with a horse that is a perfect 3 for 3 over this surface and play him in a cold exacta over #4 Capital Idea. The Bill Mott runner makes his second start of the year after a runner-up effort to Pentathlon going 7-furlongs in mid-February. He should be set for his best second off the bench.

Play: Exacta 2-4

Race 14: Florida Derby (G1)
This year’s Florida Derby drew all the 3YOs you hoped would show up in south Florida for one of Gulfstream Park’s premier races. It led to a top-heavy field that includes the Holy Bull (G3) winner, the top two from the Fountain of Youth (G2), and the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner. Of those races, I thought the Fountain of Youth was better than the others. The more seasoned #4 Commandment gutted out a win against lightly-raced #2 Chief Wallabee, but one could easily argue the Chief was best. With an inside draw and the invaluable two-turn experience under his belt, Chief Wallabee looks like the real deal making him my top pick in this year’s Florida Derby. I will play him over the aforementioned Commandment. I trust the Wathnan Racing runner most of the top tier of Triple Crown prospects and there is a chance he is sitting on a career best third off the bench. I think Chief Wallabee is better, but that does not take away from Commandment’s chances in this $1M spot.

Play: Exacta 2-4

**ConleyPicks** · 03-28-2026, 05:58 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Special Wager
PURCHASE

Special Wager - Race 4	Leg D of the Sunset Six
Optional Claiming $50,000 • 6 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 4 and up • CR: 110 • Purse: $70,000 • Post:7:11P
SA - R7 - FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $21,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000 (NON-STARTERS FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $25,000 OR LESS IN THEIR LAST 3 STARTS PREFERRED)(HORSES ENTERED FOR THE ALLOWANCE ARE PREFERRED).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. BALLYVAUGHAN GIG is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BALLYVAUGHAN GIG: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the las t 30 days. YACOWLEF (IRE): Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. RE ARMED JON: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/s urface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
8	BALLYVAUGHAN GIG	3/1	5/2
4	YACOWLEF (IRE)	9/5	6/1
6	RE ARMED JON	5/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	BALLYVAUGHAN GIG	8	3/1	Front-runner	91	88	122.6	105.0	97.5
1	SUPERSONIC BLUE	1	10/1	Front-runner	93	91	97.2	82.8	72.3
2	FOMO JOE	2	15/1	Front-runner	97	83	92.8	80.8	67.8
6	RE ARMED JON	6	5/1	Front-runner	101	94	85.4	92.6	85.1
7	HELICITY	7	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	92	92	96.4	92.8	84.3
4	YACOWLEF (IRE)	4	9/5	Trailer	109	111	91.8	105.0	101.0
5	IRISH ROYALTY	5	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	101	100	86.4	91.4	83.4
3	ENTERDADRAGON	3	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	96	96	69.7	87.0	76.5

**ConleyPicks** · 03-28-2026, 05:58 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Cross Country Pick Four
PURCHASE

Cross Country Pick Four - Race5	Leg E of the Cross Country Pick 5
Stakes • 1 1/8 Miles • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 101 • Purse: $1,500,000 • Post: 7:48P
ARKANSAS DERBY OP - R13 - GRADE 1 THREE YEAR OLDS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * LITMUS TEST: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has ru n a Good Race within the last 30 days. NAPOLEON SOLO: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. SILENT TACTIC: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). BLACKOUT TIME: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance /surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
9	LITMUS TEST	5/1	4/1
7	NAPOLEON SOLO	6/1	6/1
2	SILENT TACTIC	5/2	8/1
3	BLACKOUT TIME	6/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	NAPOLEON SOLO	7	6/1	Front-runner	87	95	92.3	86.5	83.0
9	LITMUS TEST	9	5/1	Front-runner	100	96	84.7	95.7	91.7
1	REDLAND REBELS	1	15/1	Stalker	92	89	93.9	85.3	73.3
3	BLACKOUT TIME	3	6/1	Stalker	90	92	71.4	87.7	80.7
6	RENEGADE	6	3/2	Trailer	92	97	70.8	89.6	79.1
2	SILENT TACTIC	2	5/2	Trailer	100	101	67.4	89.6	82.1
5	TAPTASTIC	5	20/1	Trailer	86	80	39.8	75.8	61.8
4	BRICKLIN	4	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	86	82	79.2	76.3	59.8
8	EXOSOME	8	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	89	75	62.0	68.6	55.1

**ConleyPicks** · 03-28-2026, 05:59 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Optional Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $86000 Class Rating: 92

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $20,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR RESTRICTED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 MAIDEN RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 11 EASTBOSTONBENNY 15/1
# 10 THOUGHT CONTROL 7/2
# 5 TERRAPIN STATION 6/1

EASTBOSTONBENNY is my selection and is a solid value bet given the line. With Rosario on top him, this gelding will almost certainly be able to break out quickly here. Have to sense that this racer will make a good impression again this time around. Has recorded reliable speed figures in dirt sprint races in the past. THOUGHT CONTROL - With Gaffalione uptop him, this colt will almost certainly be able to break out quickly in this contest. Joseph has one of the strongest winning percentages in this field with entries running at this distance and surface. TERRAPIN STATION - The average Equibase class rating of 80 makes this horse tough to beat. Romans has one of the strongest winning percentages in this group of animals with entries running at this distance and surface.

**ConleyPicks** · 03-28-2026, 06:00 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase Special

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.5f on the Turf. Purse: $70000 Class Rating: 93

SA - R9 - FOR CALIFORNIA BRED OR CALIFORNIA SIRED MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. WINNING OWNER TO RECEIVE $12,500 FROM CTBA).

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 BIG BILL 5/2
# 6 CURLIN COMMAND 3/1
# 10 ALMOST THERE 8/1

BIG BILL has a quite good shot to take this race. He must be carefully examined given the formidable speed figures. Must be carefully examined for this event if only for the quite good Equibase Speed Figure recorded in the last affair. Has put up reliable speed figures in turf sprint races in the past. CURLIN COMMAND - Hernandez has a win percent of 18 over the last 30 days. Galvin has him trained admirably to break rapidly out of the starting gate. ALMOST THERE - Make a note that this entrant runs with second time Lasix today. He looks very good in this spot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the halfway point.

**ConleyPicks** · 03-28-2026, 06:00 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Turfway Park - Race #1 - Post: 5:55pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 81

Rating:

#14 OGILVY (IRE) (ML=3/1)
#9 GO COLLECTOR (ML=6/1)

OGILVY (IRE) - I usually like playing sprint horses who are 3-4 races into a come back. Took a drop in class last time out, running against the same type today. GO COLLECTOR - Colt has shown some pace. This shorter distance should be better for him. I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run his best in the 3rd or 4th start back.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 LION GUARD (ML=4/1), #12 JOCK FROST (ML=5/1), #10 POINT BARROW (ML=5/1),

LION GUARD - Pace is so important, and this speedball is going to have a ding-dong battle on his hands. JOCK FROST - Hard to wager on a entrant that lays up for a long time then doesn't hit the board off the long turnout. Awfully tough to bet on this horse when he hasn't been showing any signs of life recently. POINT BARROW - 5/1 odds isn't enough for this participant when checking the most recent efforts. Going to have a hard go of it with all the other front-runners in this race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #14 OGILVY (IRE) on top if we're getting at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [9,14]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**ConleyPicks** · 03-28-2026, 06:01 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Oaklawn Park - Race #14 - Post: 7:24pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $110,000 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#2 WHITLEY (ML=7/5)

WHITLEY - Stay with this steed. Coming off the pace, I think he'll be in a fabulous spot to bury them in the stretch. Ran a winning race March 1st, but just couldn't topple the victor. 'Blinkers On' is a time-honored positive angle in handicapping the races.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 INSTAMANIA (ML=5/2), #6 SEVENTIES MUSIC (ML=6/1),

INSTAMANIA - This mount ran a mediocre speed rating last race out. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably lose in today's race running that number. SEVENTIES MUSIC - Unlikely that the speed fig he recorded on March 7th will hold up in this event.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - WHITLEY - This colt has the top speed figure last race with a very good 73. He is the top bet here.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 WHITLEY is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	2 with [5,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

Saturday 3/28/26 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Saturday 3/28/26 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment