Wednesday 4/8/26 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-08-2026, 10:01 AM

Scott Shapiro: Prep School Volume 9

April 8, 2026 | By Scott Shapiro

The Road to Kentucky Derby 152 is essentially complete with just the Lexington (G3) left to complete this weekend. There are always some changes to the field as we approach the first Saturday of May, but for the most part horseplayers know who to expect in the starting gate for the first leg of this year’s Triple Crown. With that said, let’s dive into the final edition of 2026 Prep School.

Most Impressive Horse Last Weekend: Further Ado

Regardless of the field he encountered, Further Ado clearly stood out as the most impressive horse that ran in three Triple Crown preps last Saturday. The Spendthrift Farm colt found a comfortable early position under jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. and pranced home to a dominant eleven-length romp. Assessing how strong the victory was in comparison to his main competition come Derby Day is a bit tricky since he clearly thrives over the Keeneland main track and did not beat much in the Blue Grass (G1). On the other hand, he has a win at Churchill Downs, has tactical speed, and probably lost less in defeat in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) to the Puma then we thought at the time. You can poke holes in Further Ado, but he certainly cemented himself as a major player in this year’s Kentucky Derby with his victory by a pole last weekend.

My Derby Tiers as of April 7:

Last weekend, I began the discussion of my top tier horses for the Kentucky Derby in this series. Many like Top Ten lists or other ways of comparing the best in the crop, but I prefer putting them in tiers, especially before the all-important draw. Since there is not enough data yet to make full on selections or construct bets, it seems difficult to pin point an exact number ranking for each horse. On the other hand, grouping them with others I rank similarly allows me to take the next step towards constructing bets mentally without making stances to the public that lack a bit of meaning. Being right about a top pick is great for the ego and for your readers, but has less meaning as bettor if you are betting three horses equally in the race. Here are my top three tiers for Derby 152. The first one being horses I am considering as key horses. The second being those with the ceiling to win, but are unlikely to be keys while the third tier are horses that have upside and talent, but may not be set for their best for the Derby.

Tier 1: Renegade, Commandment, Chief Wallabee, The Puma
There are four horses I am considering building my wagering around in this year’s Kentucky Derby. Renegade and Commandment are likely to be two of the three favorites when they head to the gate on May 2 and their running style could put them in a tough spot if the pace is not as quick as it has been in years’ past. I will almost certainly use the off-the-pace colts on almost all of my tickets, but Chief Wallabee and The Puma should provide better value. Both have done little wrong thus far. Chief Wallabee did not finish as well as many expected in the Florida Derby (G1), but that was only his third career race. He has a chance to get the jump on many of his main rivals in Louisville and almost definitely will be double-digit odds when all is said and done. Gun to head, he would be my selection today based on value, but thankfully there is plenty of time to make the call. I am content with my top tier though a little more than three weeks out.

Tier 2: Further Ado, So Happy
You cannot use them all in a 20-horse race and Further Ado is likely to be one of the odd ones out for me in the 2026 Kentucky Derby. The Brad Cox trainee has done little wrong since stretching out to two turns for the first time at Keeneland last fall, but he really does seem to have an affinity for that surface. Sure, he won in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and ran second to The Puma in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), but there is something about the dirt at Keeneland that brings out the best in Further Ado. There is certainly a chance, he is set for his best third off the bench and like Chief Wallabee projects to get the jump on many of his main rivals, but I side with others when it comes to the most logical options for this year’s Derby.
So Happy is a bit more intriguing because he will be a way bigger price. I have questions still about the Mark Glatt trainee and his ability to get the ten furlongs at Churchill Downs, but he definitely relaxed kindly and finished well in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). I doubt he will move into my top tier over the next few weeks, but he is a solid “B” at the moment for me after his career best run last weekend.

Tier 3: Emerging Market, Fulleffort, Incredibolt, Potente
The horses outside of Tier 3 are highly unlikely to be on any of my tickets come May 2, but the jury for me is still out on the four runners in this tier. Emerging Market has obvious upside for Chad Brown after his win in the Louisiana Derby (G2), but I am not yet convinced he is ready to perform at his best quite at Churchill Downs. Fulleffort has a strong turn of foot, but has to prove himself over the dirt. I will probably end up using him underneath in the exotics. Incredibolt has shown a high ceiling, but will head into the biggest race of his career not having run since besting a soft bunch in the Virginia Derby. The upside again is there, but it will be difficult for trainer Riley Mott to have him peaking in Louisville. Finally, Potente is probably not good enough, but could have be one of those with a tactical advantage given the lack of serious speed types signed on. The fact he is the lone Bob Baffert trainee might hurt his price a touch, but hanging around for a slice seems within the range of potential outcomes.

That will do it for the first year of “Prep School.” Thank you to all those that followed along with the new series this year. I am always open to ideas on how to make things better next year, so please share any with me via social media. There will be plenty of Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown content to come!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-08-2026, 10:01 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Keeneland - Race #6

#1 Dad's Two Sense	Only a mild chase-and-fade effort in the debut going short, but she'll stretch out here while getting blinkers with a pedigree that suggests some added ground may not hurt.
#4 Blue Hen Chick	She has shown a bit of finishing form through two starts and handled the main track just fine at Tampa last time out, and another reasonable step forward here might be enough to get her home.
#5 East Bay	Not totally sold that the Colonial try is going to stack up, but she at least showed some pace that day and should be in an OK spot heading into the far turn at a trip that can advantage the forward players.
Race Summary	Dad's Two Sense might get a decent run of things while stretching out with blinkers in a race without a ton of pace. Wouldn't be a shock to see her stay in the mix early from the fence in a tough race to figure.

Keeneland - Race #7

#2 Icona	Looking for a Walsh double here, as this one steps up off a nice graduation run and has looked pretty solid in both American starts. Think she's a late threat to repeat.
#1 Love You Anyway	Disappointing effort last out in the Endeavor, but her two-back run was solid enough to make her tough here if she's able to get back to something close to it. Wouldn't want to get caught here if the price gets short, but she seems like one of the obvious players.
#6 Miss Kitty Boom	Stretchout player has shown some decent pace sprinting, but she's probably going to have to prove she can rate just a touch even while going long, as there are a couple of potential pace players drawn further outside of her that could make things tough if she wants to go.
Race Summary	Icona and Love You Anyway look like the right pair in here, but the former should offer a better price on the board with some proving to do on class.

Keeneland - Race #8

#1 General Graham	He drilled what felt like a fairly modest crew at Fair Grounds in the debut, but that run probably leaves him with some upside in the second lifetime start, and I could see him getting a really dreamy trip in the pocket if a couple of the other forward players want to hustle early.
#8 Sharons Beach	He has been heading in the right direction and did what he was supposed to do in the graduation score at 30 cents on the dollar last time out, and it's easy to see him getting a perfect first-over run today. Wouldn't argue with you if you leaned here.
#11 Perfect Audible	Considered him on top with a couple of decent Oaklawn starter tries under his belt, and he could trip out from a good spying spot while turning back with the outside draw. Enough to like.
Race Summary	General Graham has the most appeal here while going second time out off a really sharp debut score, but if he starts to take too much cash, I could pretty easily be convinced to jump ship to Perfect Audible if the price stays appealing there.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-08-2026, 10:02 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Turf Paradise - Race #4

#1 COUSIN RICHIE (5-1)	Steps up, seeks third win in last four starts, holds tactical advantage.
#2 I’M NOBLE (7-2)	Steady numbers at proven distance despite recurring trouble lines.
#6 MONEYSHOT (5-2)	Has speed too, string of runner-up finishes ended in allowance.
Race Summary	COUSIN RICHIE stalked a pair of fleet-footed longshots from close-up and drew away from the troubled, late-running favorite to win off the claim. He could be the speed in this field from the rail and can handle the class hike. Bet to win and place and play 1-2 and 1-6 exactas.

Turf Paradise - Race #8

#4 TIZ A FLYER (8-1)	Like the works, like the pedigree, like the price with Americano aboard.
#7 RENO (5-2)	High turn of early foot, finished second as the favorite in last three starts.
#1 ESCAPE THE FARM (4-1)	‘Flyer’ stablemate, dam won 4 of her first 5 starts.
Race Summary	Stablemates ESCAPE THE FARM and TIZ A FLYER presumably worked in company when posting a :34-4/5 bullet workout from the gate. We’ll go with TIZ A FLYER, whose dam, Tiz Elemental (5-12, $483k), was a first-out MSW winner at Santa Anita and eventual Grade 3-victor. Bet to win and place and play 4-1 and 4-7 exactas.

Turf Paradise - Race #9

#3 STRADIVARIAN (8-1)	Can get the jump on main contenders at tempting morning-line price.
#6 THIRD WHEEL (5-2)	Top one’s stablemate looks best on paper, encouraging works off 16-month layoff.
#7 DOS VICIOS (6-1)	Got good view of grandstand when rallying for third in the same spot.
Race Summary	In an evenly-matched field of mostly late runners, STRADIVARIAN is worth a price shot. He just missed in this spot two starts ago and figures up-close throughout in his first start trainer Jose Silva Jr, who entered the week with 50 wins from 171 starters at the meet. Bet to win and place and play a 3-6-7 exacta box.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-08-2026, 10:02 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horseshoe Indianapolis
PURCHASE

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race 5	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) ITOBA $1 Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)
Maiden Special • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 76 • Purse: $38,500 • Post: 4:14P
FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS SIRED BY REGISTERED INDIANA STALLIONS MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. SOCORRO'S PRAYER is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SOCORRO'S PRAYER: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surf ace. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. EL PAYASITO: A first time starter with a trainer that has a return on investment with first time starters of at least +50 (minimum 10 starts). Today is a sprint and the horse is ca rrying at least 120 lbs.
10	SOCORRO'S PRAYER	5/2	2/1
2	EL PAYASITO	5/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
10	SOCORRO'S PRAYER	10	5/2	Front-runner	67	61	78.2	45.8	42.3
8	POWERFUL JUSTICE	8	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	53	42	67.3	33.6	23.6
9	HARD LUCK PRAYER	9	6/1	Trailer	62	50	38.0	39.0	34.5
11	MIKESTRUMPCARD	11	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	21.4	39.3	35.8
1	GOD AND LUCK	1	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	9.5	32.2	22.7
7	UNBRIDLED VALOR	7	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	55.0	21.8	13.3
3	LIL CHANCE	3	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	52.6	29.6	23.1

Unknown Running Style: EL PAYASITO (5/1) [Jockey: Pedroza Jr Marcelino - Trainer: Garcia Genaro], KRAMER (8/1) [Jockey: Calleja Andres - Trainer: Michael Brian D], GETTINWEIRD AUSTIN (15/1) [Jockey: Sanjur Santo - Trainer: Garcia Genaro], LOVERS TRAP

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-08-2026, 10:03 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise
PURCHASE

Turf Paradise - Race 4	$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 4-5) / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) $.50 Pick 4 (Races 4-5-6-7) $.20 Grand Canyon Pick 6 Jackpot (Races 4-5-6-7-8-9)
Optional Claiming $12,500 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 102 • Purse: $18,000 • Post: 2:39P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OPTIONAL, RATING, RESTRICTED, OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $12,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MARCH 8 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. ATHENS MOON is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MONEYSHOT: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. ATHENS MOON: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. CHIEF WILD E AGLE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. COUSIN RICHIE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. I'M NOBLE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
6	MONEYSHOT	5/2	5/1
5	ATHENS MOON	6/1	6/1
4	CHIEF WILD EAGLE	4/1	8/1
1	COUSIN RICHIE	5/1	8/1
2	I'M NOBLE	7/2	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	ATHENS MOON	5	6/1	Front-runner	98	92	77.7	74.9	69.9
1	COUSIN RICHIE	1	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	98	91	83.7	80.9	75.9
4	CHIEF WILD EAGLE	4	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	103	92	81.4	84.7	75.7
6	MONEYSHOT	6	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	102	102	72.4	87.8	84.3
2	I'M NOBLE	2	7/2	Trailer	100	87	56.8	89.8	83.8
3	SEVENTEEN BLACK	3	3/1	Alternator/Non-contender	89	82	74.4	62.0	51.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-08-2026, 10:03 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 68

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE OCTOBER 8. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 8 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 COMBAT HOOFS 2/1
# 4 SOFSTER 3/1
# 1 WARRIOR'S MISS 7/5

COMBAT HOOFS looks quite good to best this field. Recent numbers for the rider - 17 win percent - make this mare stand out in this field. Should go to the front end and should never look back. The average class figure alone makes this one a definite contender. SOFSTER - Looks formidable to be close to the front end at the first call. Has run admirably when racing a dirt sprint race. WARRIOR'S MISS - Looks like a strong player for the exotics. Overall, has one of the top earnings per start in dirt sprint contests in this field of horses.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-08-2026, 10:03 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #1 - Post: 12:40pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $21,000 Class Rating: 47

Rating:

#5 PATIENT FI (ML=7/2)

PATIENT FI - Stand by this horse. No other viable early speed gives this animal a strong chance at the winner's circle. Was in a $16,000 Claiming race at Tampa Bay Downs last out. That race had a class figure of 80 and she is moving down in this race. A certain solid contender.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 SPANISH GIRL (ML=5/2), #1 SISTER MARJORIE (ML=3/1), #3 ELEANOR RIGBY (ML=6/1),

SPANISH GIRL - Hard to put your cash on the win end of any racer that finishes second and third as regularly as this entrant does. SISTER MARJORIE - Finished third last time. Would have to move up to finish in the money in today's event. ELEANOR RIGBY - This horse hasn't won at this oval. When checking today's Equibase class figure, she will have to register a much better speed rating than last out to be competitive in this dirt route.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #5 PATIENT FI to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	5 with 4
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-08-2026, 10:03 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #6 - Post: 2:35pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,900 Class Rating: 76

Rating:

#6 MORGAN'S BLUFF (ML=8/1)
#2 LEAD THE WAY (ML=2/1)

MORGAN'S BLUFF - Each one of this mare's recent finish positions has been progressively better. After the race aboard this horse on March 19th, the jockey is going to be in touch with the mare much better. I really like that most recent effort on Mar 19th at Mahoning Valley Race Cour where she ran third. LEAD THE WAY - Barbaran was aboard this filly in the last race and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. Shipped in on March 27th to finish first here. Take right back again. This filly is in nice condition. Ran first on Mar 27th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 DIABLO SHIRAZ (ML=6/5), #4 SUPERSONIC AGENDA (ML=4/1),

DIABLO SHIRAZ - This favorite ran on Mar 6th and hasn't had a drill since. SUPERSONIC AGENDA - Would have to perk up off that fifth place finish last time out to make an impact here. The speed figure last race out doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's race. Mark this animal as a likely underlay.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #6 MORGAN'S BLUFF to win if you can get odds of 5/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-08-2026, 10:04 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Keeneland

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Optional Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $130000 Class Rating: 92

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $20,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $80,000. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE FEBRUARY 8 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $80,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $62,500 OR LESS NOT

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 KAPOOR 4/5
# 3 JUST AN OPINION 20/1
# 5 AMARTH 9/2

KAPOOR looks like the bet in here. Her 87 average has this filly with among the strongest Equibase speed figs in here. Should compete very well in the pace contest which bodes well with this group. Like the finishes in the last couple of contests. JUST AN OPINION - With Rodriguez getting the mount, watch out for this equine. AMARTH - She has a very good distance/surface win record - 1 / 3. I like Ortiz on this filly to give her a solid chance to hit the wire first.

Wednesday 4/8/26 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Wednesday 4/8/26 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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