Saturday 4/11/26 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-09-2026, 07:16 AM

Race of the Week: Keeneland's Jenny Wiley on Saturday

April 8, 2026 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
The Week 2 feature of the Keeneland Spring Meeting is this 1-1/16 miles turf tilt for the fillies and mares. The Jenny Wiley will be Race 9 of 11 on the Saturday program that co-features the Lexington Stakes. Horseplayers be sure to take part $10 Money-Back Special on all Kentucky Derby preps this season with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. That includes Saturday's Lexington Stakes at Keeneland.

Field Depth:
Grade 1 winners include DYNAMIC PRICING, SEGESTA and LUSH LIPS. DESTINO D'ORO is a multiple Grade 2 winner. MEDORO is Grade 1-placed. DYNAMIC PRICING and SEGESTA hold the strongest company lines having faced elder filly and mare turf division stars more often than their rivals Saturday.

Pace:
Quite modest. AUSSIE GIRL may be on the lead with LUSH LIPS in close accordance. There's not a lot of heat projected unless SEGESTA comes out humming from the outside.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-EXPENSIVE QUEEN: 3-for-4 in the US since exporting from England and coming to Brendan Walsh, including a local allowance win. Bar far her toughest test, and while she’s willing late, her BRIS late pace figures haven’t been strong enough this year to blow by all of these.

#2-FAST MARKET: John Terranova trainee comes off a November layoff and faces elder stakes fillies and mares for the first time. Vastly tougher bunch here than she’s faced with no hint she’s this level while losing Flavien Prat to Segesta. More worried about the competition than the layoff, but she does punch late.

#3-MEDORO: Disappointed twice at Fair Grounds when failing to deliver big efforts while racing on Lasix, edging a win at 6-5 and posting a runner-up at 3-5. Peter Eurton trainee may be more skilled on top-of-ground racing in California. Stable had some Week 2 Spring Meet success at Keeneland last year, but mare still seems a cut below the top runners here despite being another solid finisher.

#4-PIN UP BETTY: Veteran is 10-for-20 in the exacta but has done most of her damage at Churchill Downs and has just been okay over this course. Luis Saez jumps to ride Exclusive Queen as Mike Maker turns to Joel Rosario. Strong effort in a very difficult race last year off the winter break and that’s encouraging for this November returnee. But she’s just okay late on BRIS late pace figures.

#5-DYNAMIC PRICING: First of 2 for 7-time Jenny Wiley winner Chad Brown, whose charges have won this race 5 times in the last 7 years. She won her first start and won her 2025 return off an 8-month hiatus, so she’s got a history of firing fresh and has trained right on cue for her first try since October. In-betweener wasn’t good enough to take on the boys in the Breeders’ Cup Mile and not enough stamina for the Filly & Mare Turf at 1-3/8 miles. This kind of Grade 1 and those at Churchill and Saratoga to come are in her wheelhouse.

#6-DEEP SATIN: Winless in 3 graded-stakes attempts to date, American Pharoah mare is just 1 for her last 6 and returns from a November layoff. She was a good second here in Spring 2025 off the bench in an allowance spot and has never run a bad race. Late kick has been lacking and it’s likely a no-lead, no-pass situation for her when they real running begins.

#7-LUSH LIPS: Elite last year against the sophomore turf filly class, she stepped into the elder ranks nicely Feb. 28 in Gulfstream’s Honey Fox, a move many don’t handle easily. Tactical running style keeps her in every race and she’s 10-for-10 in the exacta since coming to trainer Brendan Walsh. Win over the course a feather in her cap. She’s got wire-to-wire wins on her ledger and may be tasked with the pace in a race that lacks standout speed.

#8-DESTINO D’ORO: Like Lush Lips, she transitioned smoothly into the elder turf mare ranks in Florida this winter, winning the Pegasus World Cup Turf and the Hillsborough among a 3-stakes winning streak. Trainer Brad Cox won 3 graded stakes at Keeneland last Saturday and looks to keep that rolling. Late runner has put up highly competitive BRIS late pace figures in her last pair and has a penchant for winning the close ones (nose, half-length, head in her last 3 scores).

#9-AUSSIE GIRL: Most likely pacesetter Saturday exits a wire-to-wire score in the Grade 3 Endeavor at Tampa Bay Downs for Will Walden. It was her first time making the lead, but typically races forward and this pace could be to her liking. Ben Curtis was one of the most valuable stakes jockeys to follow in America last year. 6-year-old won her only Keeneland try during the 2024 Fall Meet and is 11-21 in the exacta.

#10-SEGESTA: Second of 2 Chad Brown trainees as he aims for a record-padding eighth Jenny Wiley win. She’s been a pure miler, so 1-1/16 miles from an outside draw may require she tuck in and not give away any additional ground from this draw -- or be hard-used to clear several runners early and then pay a price late for that. Flavien Prat has the task. The Grade 1 Matriarch winner and local Grade 1 First Lady runner-up hasn’t had strong BRIS late pace figures overall except her last start at a mile and certainly those numbers have been more flat the farther she goes.

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
LUSH LIPS hasn't missed an exacta in 10 straight races, has won over the course and should get a dynamite trip near the front, removing a lot of in-race variables.

Best Longshot Contender:
AUSSIE GIRL (8-1 ML) isn't a bomb, but this price could rise and she's going to be a factor in the early going in a race without much heat.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$45 exactas LUSH LIPS over DYNAMIC PRICING, DESTINO D'ORO ($90). $10 exacta LUSH LIPS over AUSSIE GIRL.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-10-2026, 08:43 AM

Scott Shapiro: Keeneland Saturday Spot Plays

April 10, 2026 | By Scott Shapiro

The Keeneland Spring Meet is in full gear now as we approach the second Saturday of the meeting. The card is not quite as strong as last weekend’s stakes-laden Blue Grass card, but it has a pair of graded stakes events and still offers plenty of great wagering opportunities throughout. Here are a few horses I plan to build my day around tomorrow in Kentucky.

Race 5:
I am not in love with the chances of 5-2-ML favorite #3 Comprehensive in this MSW for 3YOs at two-turns over the turf. The Hard Spun colt had four chances this winter for trainer Brian Lynch at Gulfstream Park and was unable to get home in any of them. My biggest issue with that is Lynch was white-hot most of the Championship Meet in Hallandale Beach and now this colt ships north to take on one of the stronger fields he has encountered. He is almost certain to be an underlay. I will try to beat him with #6 Minotaur. The Raging Bull gelding has lacked early speed in both starts, including last out on March 1 when he went off the 5-2-public choice. He failed to make a serious impression late that afternoon in Florida, but that is because he lost all momentum when attempting to put his run in before they reached the far turn. He now makes his second start off the bench and should have a big shot to run this group down with a cleaner voyage under jockey Joel Rosario.

Play: #6 Minotaur (4-1 ML)

Race 8:
My top play of the day comes in this 7-furlong MSW event for 3YO fillies over the main track where I have been waiting for the return of #12 Al Ghadeer. The Gun Runner filly took noticeable public support for a barn that is not known for winning with first-time starters in her debut at Churchill Downs in late November ’25. The Andrew McKeever trainee broke from the inside that afternoon in Louisville in an 11-horse field and held her own finishing third beaten less than a length. McKeever opted to give her the winter off and point her to the spring where she gets a rider upgrade to Tyler Gaffalione and moves to a more favorable outside draw. Al Ghadeer has talent and upside. Hopefully she illustrates that in her 3YO debut.

Play: #12 Al Ghadeer (8-1 ML)

Race 10: Lexington (G3)
The last chance at our ongoing “Triple Crown Prep Races Money Back Special” offer is tomorrow when they go to post for the Lexington (G3). The final crack at earning points on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard is not a factor this year in a race where trainer Brad Cox holds a strong hand. Cox sends out 2-1-ML favorite #9 Exum and 7-2-second choice #10 Confessional with a chance to continue his hot start to the meet. Exum failed to fire on debut in Florida, but dominated a field of maidens on the Virginia Derby undercard at Colonial Downs. He has the upside to crush this field, but did not beat much. Confessional is more battle tested, but has yet to get back to the winner’s circle since his debut win over this racetrack in August. I prefer him as a wager because he should offer more value and is likely to get a favorable setup, but this is a race where I am willing to take a far bigger swing.

#3 Decisive Win ships east from Southern California off of one start where he finished fourth for trainer Doug O’Neill. On the surface, he is up against it in this spot, but his speed and fade in the strongest MSW race of the winter at Santa Anita for 3YOs is better than it looks. Not only did he battle early before yielding late, but he took a ton of action in a live group going off at 3-1. The winner of that maiden race Crude Velocity came back and won impressively for Bob Baffert in March and this colt clearly has upside. At his likely off-odds, he is worth a gamble, especially with the Money Back Offer insurance. Antonio Fresu will make the trip to Keeneland and be aboard.

Play: #3 Decisive Win (15-1 ML)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-10-2026, 08:44 AM

Jeremy Plonk: Oaklawn Apple Blossom Day Pick 5 | Saturday

April 9, 2026 | By Jeremy Plonk

Saturday’s Oaklawn card is one of the biggest of the long Hot Springs season, featuring the Grade 3 Count Fleet Sprint and the Grade 1 Apple Blossom. Those co-features make up two spots in the late pick 5 sequence that spans Races 8-12.

Let’s get to work.

Race 8: Count Fleet Sprint Handicap
A fantastic pace should give closers #8 Dreaminblue and #7 Tejano Twist every chance, but it’s behind quality speed that doesn’t have to wilt. I’ll trust #5 Roll On Big Joe and #4 Mad House most amongst the early pace players. Intra-race I’ll lean to value with Dreaminblue on the class rise.

Race 9: maiden special weight
#9 Munnings Challenge ran a strong debut second for Brad Cox and should graduate in her second start as a single. The Munnings filly is out of the outstanding local sprint mare Amy’s Challenge. She catches 8 rivals that include 6 first-time starters, mostly for barns with rather unthreatening debut stats. #1 No More Kings would be the alternative but has already had 5 attempts, several for claiming tags.

Race 10: Apple Blossom Handicap
The long series of Oaklawn preps emptying into the Apple Blossom Handicap have shown a consistent and strong local cast. The new faces showing up in the $1.25 million main event are primarily adding more speed to the fold. That won’t hurt #3 Regaled (3-1 ML) and #2 Majestic Oops (9-2 ML), who actually may move up with the additional pace. They ran 1-2 in the same-trip Azeri Stakes, but Regaled gets the nod Saturday with this being her second start off a layoff and a sharper-than-usual work at Churchill Sunday before hitting the road. I don’t like to go 2-deep and double the cost of a ticket when those horses both have the same running style. If it sets up for a closer like I project it will, then I am riding with Regaled.

Race 11: allowance
Deep group of 11 allowance milers requires some coverage. #1 Favorite Day (5-2) stacks up with these nicely but may be overbet after coming out of a very fast race against loose-leading Reagan’s Honor, a 3-year-old who bombed next out in the Blue Grass Stakes. Ron Moquett’s barn has been struggle city this season at Oaklawn, so you have to upgrade a horse with 2 wins and a third in 3 starts for the ice-cold operation like #6 Expect the Best (7-2). #9 Bourbon Society has led nearly every step in 2 starts (wins) at the current meet. There’s other pace competition, but the price is right at 12-1 ML.

Race 12: maiden claiming
The process of handicapping elimination in the finale left me with three morning line choices simply by default of not disliking them as much as the others. Beyond #6 El Chavo (7-2) for Steve Asmussen, #7 Conway (3-1) for Ron Moquett and #10 Ripples Rocket (4-1) for Allen Milligan, there’s very little embraceable form in this capacity field of 12. But that trio has had 16 tries between them and 3 exacta finishes while trying to graduate at the bottom level. Instead of creating false confidence, let’s spread our wings, wheel the field and shoot for a longshot. The budget play is to reduce to the short-priced trio and concede that your new best-case scenario is a smaller return.

The Ticket:

8,4,5,7 with 9 with 3 with 1,6,9 with ALL = $72 for 50 cents.

**HandyAndy** · 04-11-2026, 09:09 AM

LAUREL PARK TIPS - SATURDAY, APRIL 11, 2026
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 67% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 LAUREL PARK $24,000 Claiming 6 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 12:00 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	1-1	2	No Mo Muffins	S Russell
PLACE	12-1	3	Stylish Gem	X Perez
SHOW	5-1	6	Shenadoah Sunrise	F Boyce
WILD CARD	15-1	4	Shes a Good Girl	J G Briceno

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	1	Knickoletta	J E Vargas

* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX
LATE SCRATCH: Horse #5 - Yes Picnic
* REPLACE WITH: Horse #4 - Shes a Good Girl

RACE #2 LAUREL PARK $22,000 Claiming 6 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 12:28 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	6-5	6	Estocada	I Villalobos
PLACE	7-2	4	Buckin Right	R E Mena
SHOW	6-1	5	Bonds Belle	C E Lopez
WILD CARD	9-5	2	Perugia	Y Hazlewood

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	1	Instagrand Girl	C Maldonado
ALTERNATE 2	30-1	3	Dream Leader	Yomar Orlando Ortiz*

* EXACTA: 6-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX
JOCKEY CHANGE: Horse # 3


RACE #3 LAUREL PARK $22,000 Maiden Claiming 6 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 12:56 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	6	Railroad Inn	A Chavez
PLACE	7-2	2	Quahog Republic	J F Hernandez
SHOW	7-2	7	Kittys Son	Y Hazlewood
WILD CARD	8-1	4	Knucker Punk	G Whitacre

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	3	My Friend Lou	J G Briceno
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	1	Furious George	H Karamanos

* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/7 BOX, 2/4/7 BOX

RACE #4 LAUREL PARK $24,000 Starter Allowance 6 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 1:28 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-5	3	Could Be a Cougar	K Rivera
PLACE	7-2	6	R Averie Lynn	R E Mena
SHOW	3-1	7	Watch Your Tone	J E Vargas
WILD CARD	9-2	2	Book of Wisdom	A Cruz

ALTERNATE 1	4-1	4	Skip Thru Da Fire	Y Hazlewood
ALTERNATE 2	30-1	5	Sapphire Beauty	Yomar Orlando Ortiz*

* EXACTA: 3-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/7 BOX, 2/6/7 BOX
JOCKEY CHANGE: Horse # 5


RACE #5 LAUREL PARK $22,000 Claiming 1 Mile ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 2:00 PM ET
#9 MINISTER

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	9	Minister	M Chuan
PLACE	7-2	6	Bjorn	Y Hazlewood
SHOW	10-1	11	Lucked In	J E Vargas
WILD CARD	8-1	8	Enough Already	P A Luna

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	10	Dats My Pharaoh	J G Briceno

* EXACTA: 9-6 BOX, 6-11 BOX, 11-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/9/11 BOX, 6/8/11 BOX
LATE SCRATCH: Horse #2 - Freedom Maker
* REPLACE WITH: Horse #8 - Enough Already
JOCKEY CHANGE: Horse # 9


RACE #6 LAUREL PARK $53,000 Allowance Optional Claiming 6 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 2:31 PM ET
#1 PRADO ROAD

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	1	Prado Road	S Russell
PLACE	7-2	3	Suremeanttoobe	M J Sanchez
SHOW	4-1	7	Sacred Thunder	Y Hazlewood
WILD CARD	9-2	9	Radical Right	R E Mena

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	2	Goodbye Note	F Boyce
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	4	Tenebris	J G Briceno

* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/7 BOX, 3/7/9 BOX

RACE #7 LAUREL PARK $37,000 Claiming 6 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 3:03 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	6-5	4	Dont Wait Up	Y Hazlewood
PLACE	5-2	3	Paco the Taco Man	J E Vargas
SHOW	5-1	6	Cut Glass	I Villalobos
WILD CARD	7-2	1	All the Hardways	X Perez

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	2	Super Accelerate	J F Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	5	War Master	R E Mena

* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/6 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX

RACE #8 LAUREL PARK $56,000 Allowance Optional Claiming 1 Mile ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 3:36 PM ET
#5 INDY CHARGES ON

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	5	Indy Charges On	J Toledo
PLACE	8-5	2	Lure Him In	M J Sanchez
SHOW	6-1	4	Adero	A Adorno
WILD CARD	2-1	6	J D Factor	Y Hazlewood

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	7	Freedom Road	A Wolfsont
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	1	Crossland	I Villalobos

* EXACTA: 5-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/5 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX

RACE #9 LAUREL PARK $24,000 Claiming 1 1/16 Miles ON THE Turf - POST TIME: 4:08 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	1-1	4	Dairago	Y Hazlewood
PLACE	5-1	2	Summer Vibes	J Toledo
SHOW	3-1	3	Latin Rebel	M J Sanchez
WILD CARD	6-1	6	Owhatanite	J Barbosa

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	1	Your Mission	A Cruz
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	5	Hyteck Prince	Xavier Perez*

* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX
JOCKEY CHANGE: Horse # 5

Saturday 4/11/26 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Saturday 4/11/26 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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