Sunday 4/19/26 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Sunday, April 19, 2026
What to Watch for Today: Sophomore turf sprinters have the stage in the $300,000 Palisades Stakes as leading rider Irad Ortiz Jr. is expected back in action after an Oaklawn Handicap sojourn on Saturday (along with brother Jose). No Keeneland Turf Pick 3 today with only a pair of grass races carded.
Note the new minimum wager amounts for the pick 3 ($1) and superfecta ($0.50) as you tackle Keeneland this Spring. Beginning this meet, the day’s final pick 3 will carry a $3 minimum. The higher minimums may decrease the number of combos you play, but absolutely will increase the returns when you win. Get paid when you’re right has long been my gambling motto in racing.
Also note that local workout videos are now available free on the Keeneland website with a searchable database. It’s a great new resource and something I am employing in my work. Keeneland also will begin posting projected final odds during the course of betting as well as a faster cycling in updating odds as horseplayers try to evaluate the impact computer-assisted wagering teams may have on the closing prices each race.
Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter/X @Keenelandracing and @Horseplayernow.
Weather: Cooler temps in the upper 50s are forecasted for a mostly sunny day.

1st Race
Upper-level $50,000 claimers route 1-1/8 miles on dirt to open the early pick 5. We’ve had 11 Spring Meet dirt route claiming races at the $40,000 or higher level. Favorites are 1-11, but the average winner is just 7-2 odds. All 11 winners were 7-1 or less. Fair Grounds preppers have 4 wins, Gulfstream the only other with multiples (2). FG reps here are Tarantino and Goldeneye. Only 1 winner was making a first start of the year like Hurry Hurry attempts, but I like this to potentially buck that trend over a track he likes and a group of rivals with little or no local experience. Turfway preppers have won 4 of the first 8 claiming races at the current meet and Hurry Hurry is the lone TP rep. Never dismiss a Curlin going long, particularly 9F, which is good news for Carolo Rapido and Bestfriend Rocket.


2nd Race
Non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claimers route 1-1/8 miles on the dirt as the early pick 4 begins. We’ve had 6 such races at the N2L CLM 9F situation in Spring Meets with winners coming off dirt, turf and synthetic and from 5 different locales (Turfway 2) – no trends to embrace. Bartender will try to keep a massive Week 3 rolling for trainer Brad Cox. Her open maiden special weight win at Horseshoe Indy arguably is the best win on paper in this N2L. Dakota Cam’s MSW at Delaware last summer could be in the discussion and both horses should fit fine here. Turfway preppers have won 4 of the first 8 claiming races at the current meet and are mix of shorter prices and longshots here in Nan O’Hara, Tiz Sally, Country Club and Tutta Bella.


3rd Race
Elder maiden claimers sprint 6 furlongs in this one. It’s a common race type with 47 of them in the Spring Meet database. Favorites slightly underperform at 15-47 with an average winner slightly above average at 5-1. The average winner is just over a half-length off the lead after the first half-mile. Experienced runners have a 40-7 edge over first-time starters. Fair Grounds preppers have 13 wins, just ahead of Turway with 11. Trainer Joe Sharp has a pair of entries in Gus’s Gal, by sharp Kee dirt sire Midnight Lute, and Shining Silver, who lures Jose Ortiz off his stablemate to ride for the first time. Class dropper Red Raze was overmatched vs. tougher here last Fall, but the Practical Joke offspring typically give a good effort on this track when paired up properly and she can factor.


4th Race
The pick 6 begins with this 1-1/16 miles dirt maiden special weight for elders. We’ve had 18 such route races for the class/age in Spring Meets and the public has them dialed in with 10 winning favorites. The average winner was just 3-1 odds. Up Country is 6-5 on the morning line and could continue the short-price express. Gulfstream preppers have owned the scene with 9 victories, good news for Saugeen, the lone GP rep. Horses coming out of a 2-turn prep have a 11-6 edge on those exiting 1-turn races (1 first-timer has won as Commerce bids). The only 2-turn preppers here are Up Country and Money Man.


5th Race
Maiden special weight 3-year-olds sprint the about 7-furlong distance in the late pick 5 opener. We’ve had 42 of these races at 7F in Spring Meets with favorites right around the national 38% average, but an average winner at a juicy 6-1. The average winner is just under three-quarters of a length off the lead after the first half-mile and only 1 winner has closed more than 3 lengths at that point. Experienced horses have a 34-8 edge on first-time starters. It’s been an amazing week for Brad Cox and Irad Ortiz Jr and the well-bred Final Story will be a strong favorite and tough to beat. He comes via Gulfstream and GP has produced 12 winners in these spots (no other circuit more than 4). The regally bred Into Mischief-Vexatious colt Cierto debuts and is the first-time of repute.


6th Race
The late pick 4 offers our first turf race of the day as non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) allowance foes match up over 1-3/16 miles. We have 19 such races at the class and distance in Spring Meets after a similar heat in Saturday’s Race 6, typically 2-3 per meet in recent seasons. Gulfstream preppers have 10 of 19 wins after Kentucky Belle for Brad Cox yesterday. Repos here include Kravitz, Gairlick, Patrol Squad Six and Beautiful War – while Knoty Knicks was Gulfstream all winter before a Tampa stakes outing most recently. 13 of the 19 winners at this trip and class exited preps at 1-1/16 miles or longer, which 7 of 12 here can boast. The strength of schedule for Knoty Knicks puts me in his camp though he’s struggled to seal the deal and the trends don’t scream for him out of a Tampa mile. Bill Mott wheels Noble Dynasty back on 2 week’s rest from a late-running sixth in the Transylvania and adds Lasix.


7th Race
First-level (N1X) allowance sprinters kick off the $3 late pick 3 at the about 7-furlong distance. We’ve had 20 of these N1X 7F races in Spring Meets with just 5 winning favorites and an average winner 6-1 odds. That’s going to be tested by 8-5 ML favorite Elnajd as Irad Ortiz Jr. and Brad Cox can do no wrong this week. Only 4 of 20 winners led after the first half-mile (average winner 1-3/4 lengths back at that point). 6 winners prepped at Gulfstream, 5 at Fair Grounds, and 3 from Turfway. Elnajd is the lone GP rep. Only 5 of 20 winners exited 2-turn preps


8th Race
Sophomore turf sprinters take center stage in the $300,000 Palisades Stakes, a newer stakes with only 5 Spring editions on record. Favorites have lost the last 4, but no winner has been more than 7-1 (average just under 9-2). Only inaugural winner Bulletin was even within 3 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile, the last 4 winners deep closers. 4 of 5 winners were making their first start of the calendar year like 3-1 morning line favorite Schwarzenegger bids. Other layoff runners here include Sandal’s Song and Azizam – and I like all 3 of those in my top-3. Wesley Ward won this race in 2021 and 2024 and sends out Schwarzenegger, winner of the Indian Summer here during the Fall Meet. If the closers have success that will be to the detriment of the front-running favorite. The George Weaver duo of Sandal’s Song and Azizam wants to be motoring late. Power posts 3-4-5 in full-field turf sprints are always worth an extra look, those being Swung, Schwarzenegger and Archimedes if there are no scratches.


9th Race
We wrap the Week 3 action with this maiden special weight for 3-year-olds sprinting 7 furlongs (sales price-restricted). We’ve had 42 of MSW at 7F in Spring Meets with favorites right around the national 38% average, but an average winner at a juicy 6-1. The average winner is just under three-quarters of a length off the lead after the first half-mile and only 1 winner has closed more than 3 lengths at that point. Experienced horses have a 34-8 edge on first-time starters. It’s been an amazing week for Brad Cox and Irad Ortiz Jr and they will try to buck that trend with rookie Asheville. The other firster to consider is Rusty Arnold’s Tilt a Twirl, training well for a barn having a big meet. Nonconforming and also-eligible Cerebus come via Gulfstream and GP has produced 12 winners in these spots (no other circuit more than 4). Quarry adds Lasix after nibbling around several diplomas last year and gets my tepid nod.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Hazelton	Tom Leach	Jeremy Plonk	Kim Nelson
1	3 Tarantino 4 Hurry Hurry 1 Badge of War	6 Goldeneye 3 Tarantino 7 Carolo Rapido	4 Hurry Hurry 1 Badge of War 3 Tarantino	3 Tarantino 1 Badge of War 6 Goldeneye
2	8 American Select 5 Country Club 7 Tutta Bella	9 Don't Be Salty 1 Bartender 8 American Select	1 Bartender 6 Dakota Cam 7 Tutta Bella	1 Bartender 9 Don't Be Salty 5 Country Club
3	4 Chasing Sunsets 5 Gus's Gal 7 Red Raze	3 Solaia 6 Shining Silver 5 Gus's Gal	6 Shining Silver 5 Gus's Gal 7 Red Raze	7 Red Raze 6 Shining Silver 5 Gus's Gal
4	9 Up Country 1 Noble Anthem 4 Commerce	2 Saugeen 1 Noble Anthem 9 Up Country	2 Saugeen 9 Up Country 1 Noble Anthem	1 Noble Anthem 4 Commerce 9 Up Country
5	2 Cierto 7 Final Story 1 Our Forefathers	7 Final Story 2 Cierto 10 Radar Lock	7 Final Story 10 Radar Lock 2 Cierto	4 Mouqeer 7 Final Story 5 Owie
6	5 Kravitz 10 Noble Dynasty 2 Survivin'onaprayer	10 Noble Dynasty 7 Patrol Squad Six 6 Gairloch	3 Knoty Knicks 7 Patrol Squad Six 10 Noble Dynasty	10 Noble Dynasty 3 Knoty Knicks 6 Gairloch
7	4 Tre Italiani 6 Elnajd 2 Nation	6 Elnajd 11 Big Gain 1 Dr. Park	6 Elnajd 9 Tamino 4 Tre Italiani	2 Nation 6 Elnajd 4 Tre Italiani
8	6 Sandal's Song 4 Schwarzenegger 1 Track Tiger	4 Schwarzenegger 6 Sandal's Song 12 Shipmate	4 Schwarzenegger 6 Sandal's Song 9 Azizam (GB)	11 Intricate Spirit 4 Schwarzenegger 10 Throckmorton
9	1 The Hund 3 Quarry 2 Non Conforming	11 Asheville 8 Bod Beach 3 Quarry	3 Quarry 6 Tilt a Twirl 8 Bod Beach	11 Asheville 3 Quarry 6 Tilt a Twirl

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)
PURCHASE

Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 2	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $1 Superfecta (.10 cent minimum wager) $1 Pick Three
Trial • 300 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 83 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 6:09P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLD'S, (NO SEX ALLOWANCE) (WEIGHT 126) HORSES WHICH NOMINATED TO THIS RACE MUST PASS THE ENTRY BOX IN THE USUAL MANNER. ENTRY FEE $1,000. NO SUPPLEMENTAL PAYMENT. ALL TRIAL ENTRY FEES MUST BE ON DEPOSIT WITH THE PAYMASTER OF PURSES PRIOR TO THE CLOSING OF ENTRIES. HORSES WHICH QUALIFY FOR THE FINALS MUST REMAIN ON THE GROUNDS UNTIL 48 HOURS AFTER THE FINALS HAVE RUN.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * SECRET EXPRESS: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" de signation. QUEENSHIP: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. MR LIO: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Styl e designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
4	QUEENSHIP	4/1	4/1
1	SECRET EXPRESS	6/1	4/1
7	MR LIO	5/2	9/2

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	SECRET EXPRESS	1	6/1	Fast	76	71	0.0	0.0	0.0
2	BONUS BET	2	20/1	Average	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
3	LUNA SOFIA	3	20/1	Average	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
4	QUEENSHIP	4	4/1	Fast	73	73	0.0	0.0	0.0
5	VAL EMPIRE	5	8/1	Slow	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
6	QUITE PERFECT	6	3/1	Average	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
7	MR LIO	7	5/2	Fast	76	72	0.0	0.0	0.0
8	MY FAVORITE PARIS	8	4/1	Slow	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Laurel Park
PURCHASE

Laurel Park - Race 2	EXACTA &TRIFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 2-3) / 10 cent SUPERFECTA 50 cent PICK 3 (RACES 2-3-4) / 50 cent PICK 4 (RACES 2-3-4-5)
Maiden Claiming $35,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3-6 • CR: 70 • Purse: $37,000 • Post: 12:28
(PLUS UP TO 15% MBF) FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $35,000, IF FOR $28,000, ALLOWED 4 LBS. MD-BRED AND/OR MD-SIRED HORSES MAY WAIVE CLAIMING PRICE IN THIS RACE.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * UPSHOT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. REGENCY TALE: Horse has run a Good Race within the las t 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SUMMERINTHECOUNTRY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Maiden finished second in its last race and finished three lengths or more ahead of the third place horse.
6	UPSHOT	3/1	4/1
3	REGENCY TALE	9/2	4/1
1	SUMMERINTHECOUNTRY	1/1	9/2

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	SUMMERINTHECOUNTRY	1	1/1	Stalker	72	66	85.2	56.0	51.0
3	REGENCY TALE	3	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	73	67	56.1	64.0	60.5
6	UPSHOT	6	3/1	Trailer	78	70	16.8	68.2	65.2
2	BALD CYPRESS	2	12/1	Alternator/Trailer	70	59	44.7	57.7	49.2
4	SWEET SPY	4	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	65.6	44.1	33.1
7	PAID VACATION	7	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	67	52	18.0	19.0	8.5

Unknown Running Style: GUERRILLA MAGIC (6/1) [Jockey: Lopez Carlos Eduardo - Trainer: Graham Robin L].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase Special

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Optional Claiming - 6.5f on the Turf. Purse: $67000 Class Rating: 86

SA - R5 - FOR CALIFORNIA BRED OR CALIFORNIA SIRED THREE YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $21,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000 (NON-STARTERS FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 ROLLINWITHPOLAN 5/1
# 6 HE'S A KNOCKOUT 7/5
# 8 ALLEQUIN SUMMER 10/1

ROLLINWITHPOLAN has a quite good shot to take this race. This gelding could improve with second time Lasix. Recent figs for the jockey - 35 win percent - make this gelding stand out in this field. Fresu will almost certainly be able to get this gelding to break out quickly for this event. HE'S A KNOCKOUT - His 88 average has this colt with among the top Speed Figures for this event. The Lasix change (on Lasix) may spark a turnaround for this colt. ALLEQUIN SUMMER - Put up a sound Equibase Speed Figure in the latest race. Can run another good one in this race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Hawthorne - Race #6 - Post: 5:00pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,000 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#3 SIR LIAM (ML=9/2)
#1 OLIVERIO (ML=4/1)
#6 WAYLLEN RICHARD (ML=7/2)


SIR LIAM - Trainer Rodriguez gave this gelding a good stiff blow out. Last one was 2nd fastest of the day. Adding blinkers often leads to improvement on the racetrack. OLIVERIO - Racing at a similar level as last race on Mar 9th at Fair Grounds. I think Lopez has found a good spot for him, and I like his chances in this event. WAYLLEN RICHARD - You always have to be on the lookout for profit making rider/handler tandems; we have an instance right here. Catalano drops him down to this class. You don't need too much more knowledge to figure that this animal has a shot at this level. Gelding won on December 11th at this class and distance. This gelding garnered a strong speed fig of 73 in his last event. That speed rating should be good enough to triumph today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 NOT FALLING BACK (ML=5/2), #5 VINO COURAGIO (ML=6/1),

VINO COURAGIO - I'd like to see more conducive recent outings with morning line of 6/1. Unlikely that the rating he registered on March 20th will hold up in this event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #3 SIR LIAM on top if we're getting at least 4/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Maiden - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $22500 Class Rating: 69

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 A FLYINGDYNAMITE 123 3/1
# 6 SWEET LORALI 15/1
# 4 DID I WIN 4/1

A FLYINGDYNAMITE 123 should be supported as the bet in here. Has to be considered as sire's progeny has among the top win rate as two-year olds. There is a very good chance that this entry's late pace will improve on Lasix. Runners trained by Joiner in short races are frequently sound. SWEET LORALI - Don't let this filly slip past you. Could prove victorious at a juicy mutuel. DID I WIN - Has to be worth a bet based on the sire's (Dulce Sin Tacha) offspring competitive win rate - 18 percent. Always difficult to beat Gonzales and Cardenas working together, winning 15 percent of their races.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Gulfstream Park - Race #8 - Post: 4:34pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $42,000 Class Rating: 90

Rating:

#1 EPICO (ML=8/1)


EPICO - A winning percentage like 50 is outstanding for any rider/conditioner tandem. I like that most recent outing on March 27th at Gulfstream Park where he finished first.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 IRISH GENT (IRE) (ML=7/5), #5 SHOTGUN (ML=5/2), #7 YANKEE DRUMMER (ML=7/2),

IRISH GENT (IRE) - Has been defeated as the chalk back to back. A repeat is probably in store. Can't really play this kind of oft beaten public's top choice. SHOTGUN - I can't play this confirmed non-winner. Gets the assignment executed now and then. This colt registered a speed figure in his last event which probably isn't good enough in today's event. YANKEE DRUMMER - Hard to take this questionable contender at the odds after the result (fourth) in the last affair. This gelding notched a fig in his last event which likely isn't good enough in today's race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #1 EPICO to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass