Tuesday 4/28/26 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-28-2026, 08:31 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Churchill Downs - Race #5

#1 Highway Patrol	Think there is a little bit of midrange price appeal here, as his form woke up a bit when he got back on the dirt, and he might find himself in an OK enough spot while just in behind a couple quicker players. Interesting enough.
#6 Standard Deduction	He has been finishing up with a little enthusiasm in those recent starts in New Orleans, and he might benefit from getting another sixteenth of a mile to work with here.
#9 Harbe	He's got good chasing pace from the outside that should keep him in a perfect kind of first-over spot into the turn, but I do have a mild worry about the fact that he tends to be fairly one-paced late.
Race Summary	#3 Joe's Candy drops in with a chance here, but he's got at least a little bit of proving to do on the main track and probably gets bet. Highway Patrol may be a bit overlooked in here with a couple of recent tries that don't leave him overmatched.

Churchill Downs - Race #8

#2 Hold My Bourbon	He's back with some forward works after a few months away, and he has been in with some deeper groups in the more recent starts on his page. Think he needs a few things to go his way from a race flow perspective, but he might get overlooked with some pretty tough customers in his recent company lines.
#9 Flood Zone	His tactical pace should leave him in a perfect spying spot while just off the quicker players early, but the winner of his last was back to steamroll a statebred group last weekend, and I think he has a few excuses on class for some of the dull runs on his page.
#7 U Devil You	Don't really trust him to win right back, but I think he's in line for one of the better trips in here based on the race shape. First-jump runner tries to hold from there.
Race Summary	Hold My Bourbon will likely have some pace company, but I think he might be a touch better than the recent baseline looks, and he has not been completely terrible when racing from pressing spots while in with some names who would dust this group.

Churchill Downs - Race #9

#10 Camp Hale	Think the chalk is going to hit hard in here, but this guy ran well in his turf debut last time out and might be a touch closer in the early going today with a bit cleaner break. Appealing alternative.
#4 Bacio	Won't hear a peep from me if you want to lean hard on this guy -- the price isn't going to be much, but his form has a couple of pretty hefty efforts on it already from just three lifetime starts, and it's possible he has moved forward into his 3-year-old season. Suppose if you're poking holes here, the main knock/concern is that he's coming back fresh while immediately rising to face older horses. Still, think he's tough.
#1 Heart Headed	Dropper catches a couple of tough ones in here on paper, but nothing like My Boy Prince or Yellow Card, reliable stakes types who were 1-2 in that Grade II try last time out. Rebound effort well within reach.
Race Summary	For or against Bacio? The form says he's the one to beat for a top team, and I wouldn't argue with anyone leaning on that. My very mild concerns may not amount to much, but I wonder if today is a day to try to beat him while jumping up to face older horses in his 3-year-old debut. Camp Hale should be in the right spot to capitalize if the chalk needs a race or finds these waters a bit deep off the bench.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-28-2026, 08:31 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Parx - Race #5

#2 CAPTAIN FANCY (5-2)	Duplicate of latest should make him first winner in the field to win at 6-1/2F.
#5 GAVONE (6-1)	Made a 3-wide run at ‘Captain’ on the turn but couldn’t sustain it, gets Paco.
#4 HALFTIME SHOW (3-1)	Romped in first try on conventional dirt for 27-percent ‘repeat’ barn.
Race Summary	CAPTAIN FANCY earned his top speed figure in a photo-finish setback at 6F. He outdueled next-out, wire-to-wire runaway Stinger Bee but was caught late by the favorite. He has to carry his speed an extra half-furlong but should be able to do so in his third start of a cycle. Bet to win and place and play 2-4 and 2-5 exactas.

Parx - Race #7

#7 TOWER TWENTY TWO (3-1)	Likes Parx, held her own in high-priced allowances at Aqueduct.
#4 PAM PAM (9-5)	Versatile, consistent, won four of her last seven starts for Ness.
#2 STRIKE A ROSE (5-1)	Angled out for stretch drive, edged away in debut win at Big A, takes on elders.
Race Summary	TOWER TWENTY TWO returns to Parx after a three-race diversion to Aqueduct to take on NY-bred allowance rivals. She finished behind six-figure earner Lady Angelina and next-out winner Howling Wind at 6-1/2F, then raced 3-wide to the far turn and couldn’t reach pace-controlling, repeat winner Otherpeoplesmoney (3-11, $118k) at 1-1/8 miles. She ran away from morning-line favorite PAM PAM the last time she raced at Parx. Bet to win and place and play 7-2 and 7-4 exactas.

Parx - Race #9

#5 UP N RUNNIN (3-1)	Steady numbers, projects ideal trip, can upgrade runner-up finishes.
#7 WILD GIRL (8-1)	Best might not be good enough, but she gets in light for hot barn that re-claimed her.
#1 XMAS IN CAIRO (6-1)	Late runner broke maiden in second start this year, added ground a plus.
Race Summary	UP N RUNNIN, second in 6 of 12 starts at Parx at various distances, can make amends as the beaten favorite in her last pair. She made a run at the pace-setting runner-up and finished a willing fifth last out at this distance and gets upgraded after that same rival rallied to win an allowance race since then. Bet to win and place and play a 1-5-7 exacta box.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-28-2026, 08:32 AM

Scott Shapiro: Churchill Downs Tuesday Spot Plays

April 27, 2026 | By Scott Shapiro

Kentucky Derby week starts in earnest on Tuesday afternoon after kicking off the spring in Louisville last weekend. The “502sday” card at Churchill Downs, as it has been recently dubbed, kicks off at 12:45 eastern and is headlined by a pair of high-level allowance races at the back end of the afternoon. Here are the horses I like most on April 28.

Race 2:
I have a pair of more creative picks later in the card, but I will start the week with a short price that should be very tough to beat to kick off the early Pick 4. #1 Booked debuts for North America’s all-time leading trainer Steve Asmussen. The son of Yaupon could easily opt to run versus fellow Indiana-breds at some point soon, but instead Asmussen enters him for the more juicy $120,000 purse offered up in at Churchill Downs in MSW events for 2YOs. The rail may present a challenge if he breaks poorly, but otherwise it will provide this colt with the shortest distance between two points, instead of potentially getting caught wide with that quick run into the turn. The presence of Jose Ortiz helps illustrate that Asmussen means business with this $325k Keeneland September 2025 purchase. I expect a big run at first asking.

Play: #1 Booked (7-5 ML)

Race 3:
The pace should be honest in this starter allowance at one mile over the grass, which should lead to a favorable ground saving voyage from #2 Queen Wilhelmina. The Arkansas-bred has had a lot of chances already, but only three going long over the grass. Trainer Lindsay Schultz got the daughter of The Factor back at the beginning of the year and moved her to the lawn at Fair Grounds for the first time on January 23. The result was a win going away at a massive 49-1 offering. Since then the 5YO mare has taken on better in two first-level allowance events and held her at own both times as a long shot. Schultz has given Queen Wilhelmina a 6-week freshening and finds a perfect spot for her to earn her second career win. The move to Jose Ortiz for the first time strengths her case.

Play: #2 Queen Wilhelmina (9-2 ML)

Race 8:
This third-level allowance at 7.5-furlongs over the main track appears wide-open, so I will take a swing with #2 Hold My Bourbon. The son of Anchor Down makes his first start of the year and competes for the first time for trainer Jose D’Angelo. It was a slow winter after a strong fall for D’Angelo, but he has started to heat up again. The Florida-based conditioner won three races in Florida over the weekend, has a $2.48 ROI over a recent 30-day, 49-race sample, and gets this guy back to a racetrack he has run well over throughout his career. The pace should be contentious, which should allow the Gray V Train Racing ridgling to work out a perfect trip just off the pace under Luis Saez. Hold My Bourbon has races to go back to and comes in fresh. Hopefully, he fires a big shot at a big price.

Play: #2 Hold My Bourbon (10-1 ML)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-28-2026, 09:22 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes
PURCHASE

Finger Lakes - Race 1	EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum) * DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 1-2) * EARLY PICK 5 WITH MANDATORY DAILY PAY OUT (50 Cent Minimum: Races 1-2-3-4-5)
Allowance • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 64 • Purse: $26,500 • Post: 12:55
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. BALD KITTEN is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BALD KITTEN: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has th e highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. MIA NIPOTINA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lb s.
3	BALD KITTEN	5/2	2/1
2	MIA NIPOTINA	5/1	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	BALD KITTEN	3	5/2	Front-runner	72	64	75.2	56.2	51.2
1	SYL'S PLEASURE	1	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	58	59	55.4	54.2	47.7
2	MIA NIPOTINA	2	5/1	Trailer	70	61	23.8	55.2	52.2
5	SIGNIFYING NOTHING	5	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	74	64	75.6	42.8	35.3
4	TREE HOUSE	4	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	47	51	49.4	36.3	28.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-28-2026, 09:22 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Thistledown
PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race 7	$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.20 Superfecta
Maiden Special • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 41 • Purse: $33,900 • Post: 3:50P
FOR ACCREDITED OHIO FOALS MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Class. LOWELLS LEGACY is the Dominant Class of the race. * KEY ANGLES * LOWELLS LEGACY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. DRAGON HUNTER: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
3	LOWELLS LEGACY	2/1	5/2
2	DRAGON HUNTER	3/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	DRAGON HUNTER	2	3/1	Front-runner	41	33	66.6	31.6	24.6
1	JACE	1	30/1	Front-runner	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
3	LOWELLS LEGACY	3	2/1	Stalker	60	48	71.6	42.4	39.9
6	BIG DADDY HANK	6	4/1	Stalker	45	38	46.8	27.6	22.1
7	CINDY'S LAST SONG	7	20/1	Alternator/Stalker	38	24	34.3	24.5	17.5
10	RIVERS OF WEALTH	10	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	43	36	31.2	21.0	11.5
4	H F S MEMORIES	4	12/1	Trailer	0	0	23.7	25.6	14.1
5	MY FOR O ONE KAY	5	5/1	Alternator/Trailer	38	33	29.2	32.6	20.1

Unknown Running Style: HARPERS HOT WIRE (30/1) [Jockey: Diaz Angel I - Trainer: Lopez Jacinto], CLEATUS (10/1) [Jockey: Terraza German - Trainer: Sweeting Craig].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-28-2026, 09:22 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Turf Paradise - Race #5 - Post: 3:09pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 87

Rating:

#6 CHELSIESDANZIGLITE (ML=8/1)
#5 SLEW SKIES (ML=5/1)
#2 NABERS (ML=5/2)

CHELSIESDANZIGLITE - The rest of the bunch may trail this horse all the way around the track. SLEW SKIES - This gelding should be at the fitness peak, this far into his form cycle. With a big class drop in class figure points from his April 6th race at Turf Paradise. Based on that data point, I will give this horse the advantage. Just look at his recent speed fig, 86. That one looks good in this bunch. NABERS - A horse coming back this quickly after a nice race is a good omen. Gelding took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 SHACKLEFORD STRONG (ML=7/2), #3 CODE BREAKER (ML=4/1), #1 BLACKJACK AND BEER (ML=9/2),

SHACKLEFORD STRONG - This gelding hasn't been showing me anything in the last two efforts. CODE BREAKER - When looking at today's Equibase class figure, he will have to notch a much better speed fig than last time around the track to compete in this dirt sprint. BLACKJACK AND BEER - I can't play this frequent non-winner. Gets the task fulfilled infrequently.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #6 CHELSIESDANZIGLITE on the win end if we get at least 9/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-28-2026, 09:22 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Churchill Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $120000 Class Rating: 85

FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 119 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 FANSHELL BEACH 9/5
# 3 JASPER VALLEY 6/1
# 1 BOOKED 7/5

FANSHELL BEACH is my choice. This conditioner is formidable with starters in baby races. Has strong sire profits and may be worth the dangerous nature of a two-year old race. Has to be carefully examined given the sire figs TrackMaster shows on this juvenile. JASPER VALLEY - This trainer is formidable with starters in juvenile races. He has a good opportunity in this race as trainer, Hamm, has solid win rate with horses going this distance. BOOKED - Don't overlook this colt in your bets - very dangerous with Ortiz aboard. Should definitely be given a shot versus this group based solely on pedigree numbers. Hard to pass on this colt with Ortiz in the saddle.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-28-2026, 09:23 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fairmount Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10600 Class Rating: 64

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 BELLA FRANCESCA 3/1
# 5 STAGFLATION 2/1
# 1 TAKETHESILVER 5/1

BELLA FRANCESCA has a competitive shot to take this race. Should best this group here, showing solid numbers of late. Trainer has strong win rate (16 percent) at this distance and surface. This mare has to be given a shot just off the earnings per start in dirt sprint events alone. STAGFLATION - She has been running admirably and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the most competitive in this group. As of late Martinez has provided wagerers with a respectable winning percentage with horses racing in dirt sprint races. TAKETHESILVER - With Orm uptop her, this mare will probably be able to break out sharply in here. As of late Martinez has provided risk takers with a very good winning percentage with horses running in dirt sprint races.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-28-2026, 09:23 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race #5 - Post: 8:40pm - Optional Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 81

Rating:

#9 HERO'S MAN (ML=5/1)
#3 A OK (ML=10/1)
#7 TEAM LEYENDECKER (ML=8/1)

HERO'S MAN - This gelding's last race was back on November 4th but I do believe he can run a good one coming off a vacation. When Treharne gives Barrios a leg up on any noble animal, you got to know that with their win percent you have at least a fighting chance. This entrant picks up a lot of money per race. I believe he can increase the lifetime total right here. A OK - This campaigner coming off a strong contest in the last thirty days is a solid contender in my humble opinion. Comes out of a last race against 'open' company on Apr 10th and faces what I believe are easier 'state breds' today. This gelding is rounding his way back into shape. Should race well today. TEAM LEYENDECKER - Has run good races in the first or second starts back off of a layoff.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 MEXICALI MIKE (ML=3/1), #6 ZEALOUS STORM (ML=9/2), #2 DEMBE ZUMA (ML=6/1),

MEXICALI MIKE - This racer didn't do much for me last time finishing fourth. Can't expect any betterment in today's race. Finished fourth on April 10th after the very long layoff. Doubtful if there will be improvement in this race. ZEALOUS STORM - Tough to wager on any pony in a sprint event if he hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last couple of months. This gelding recorded a speed rating in his last affair which likely isn't good enough in today's event. DEMBE ZUMA - The third place result in the last race was not that great. Can't wager on this mount in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a sprint race lately. This gelding garnered a speed figure in his last affair which probably isn't good enough in today's race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #9 HERO'S MAN to win if you can get odds of 4/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,7,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,7,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

Tuesday 4/28/26 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Tuesday 4/28/26 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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