Saturday 5/2/26 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2026, 10:02 AM

Jeremy Plonk: Race of the Week | Saturday's Turf Classic at CD

April 29, 2026 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
It doesn't get any better than Kentucky Derby Day: great horses, giant pools, expanded wagering options. We have you covered for the Run for the Roses in the 1/ST Kentucky Derby Wager Guide. But the annual lead-in is the Turf Classic, and an international cast of 10 will precede the Kentucky Derby in Race 11. It's a part of several multi-race and multi-day bets including a 2-day pick 3, 2-day pick 6 and Saturday all-turf pick 4 ... among the traditional, multi-race sequences. Be sure to play in the $20,000 Exacta-Thon this Friday and Saturday at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet for your share of extra cash.

Field Depth:
Grade 1 winners PROGRAM TRADING, RHETORICAL, GOLD PHOENIX and TEST SCORE have signature scores on their ledgers, while MERCANTE is Grade 1-placed. Grade 2 winners include ASBURY PARK and foreign raider MAKE ME KING.

Pace:
CORRUPTION and MERCANTE could set a modest pace here with RHETORICAL and ASTRONOMER most likely to apply pressure if it's to come. A deep closer could be compromosed by this race shape.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-CORRPUTION: Rail pace player has been turned into a turf marathoner while facing lesser competition. Worst races on his form have come at Churchill and at the Grade 1 level, so bad combination for Saturday’s assignment. Impacts the tempo if Johnny V is aggressive holding position.

#2-DASHMAN: Another who hasn’t shown the propensity to compete with sharp, middle-distance turfers. Likely to expend more in keeping up than he’d prefer and be left empty late despite a good post draw. Jockey Joel Rosario comes off a disappointing Keeneland performance.

#3-ASBURY PARK: October returnee takes on elders for the first time in stakes company, but 4-year-olds have been very strong in this race over the years. Well-bred Frankel colt broke his maiden off a10-month layoff last summer and can fire fresh under Flavien Prat – who jumps off Grade 1 winner Program Trading to pilot. There cause for pause and optimism, so demand that 8-1 morning line price. Chad Brown aims for a 3-peat in the Turf Classic.

#4-PROGRAM TRADING: The 2024 Turf Classic winner missed the spring of 2025 on the sidelines and returns at age 6. Chad Brown adds blinkers to this $1.6 million earner for the first time in 13 starts, but Flavien Prat jumps seats to ride stablemate Asbury Park. Okay efforts in the Pegasus World Cup Turf and Mervin Muniz Memorial in his 2 starts this year, but he’s 0-for-5 since being sidelined over 14 months beginning in summer 2024.

#5-MERCANTE: 13-1 runner-up here a season ago in the Turf Classic has gone 1-for-7 since, but very consistent in races beyond a mile. Reliable Brian Knippenberg trainee hasn’t missed the super in 4 tries over this course and takes the same prep path as a year ago when he just missed defending his title in Turfway’s Kentucky Cup Classic on synthetic. Probably a double-digit price again and not without a case.

#6-RHETORICAL: True miler will be tested at his farthest distance to date, but it’s difficult to argue this one’s consistent brilliance. Trainer Will Walden is having a banner 2026 on the stats ledger and regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr. is worth a couple lengths alone the way he’s been riding. Clearly the horse to beat as the 5-2 morning line favorite and very well could be shorter than that. Perhaps the distance questions help hold that price.

#7-GOLD PHOENIX: Eight-year-old Duke of Del Mar finished a late-running fourth in this race last year and returns from his California base. Phil D’Amato has San Luis Rey Stakes-winning pilot Hector Berrios back for the ride as that jockey is in town to ride Intrepido in the Derby. The 1-1/8 miles distance is perhaps a too-sharp trip for this gelding who excels at 10-12 furlongs, but his effort last year puts him in the exotics hunt.

#8-ASTRONOMER: After starting his career 3-for-6, he stepped into the stakes ranks and hasn’t found the winner’s circle in 19 tries. But it’s without some close calls, 3 times a Grade 2 runner-up. Appears a cut below these for trainer Simon Callaghan. Expect Javier Castellano to have him closer to the pace than many of his previous starts.

#9-TEST SCORE: Ever-consistent Graham Motion trainee was runner-up in the American Turf last year during Derby Weekend when facing fellow 3-year-olds. He’s proven himself against elders, winning January’s Pegasus World Cup Turf at Gulfstream under Manny Franco, his regular rider who returns Saturday. The caution is the 3-month layoff as he lost his debut and exiting a similar break to open his 2025 season as the favorite – showing some vulnerability on being able to win off of works alone.

#10-MAKE ME KING: World traveler makes his US debut, having raced in Dubai, Qatar, England and France. Wathnan Racing and trainer Hamad Al-Jehani won Woodbine’s Grade 1 Canadian International last Fall with Silawi. This Dark Angel colt has been a pure miler overseas until stretching out last time when fourth in the Grade 1 Dubai Turf. That fourth-place finish behind internationally acclaimed Ombudsman would stack up well with these. I like international horses pairing with American jockeys, and Jose Ortiz has been off to a blazing start at Churchill Downs.

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
RHETORICAL is 8-8 in the superfecta, and while the trip might be a bit farther than his best, expect him to be thoroughly involved in the stretch.

Best Longshot Contender:
MERCANTE may fit the winning trends of this race best of all. Over the past 13 years, horses coming off top-2 finishes between a mile and 1-1/18 miles while racing within the last 42 days have had overwhelming success in the Turf Classic. He’ll match up with a slew of horses shortening trips, returning from layoffs and trying to bounce back from worse defeats.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$25 win MERCANTE. $25 exacta part-wheel ASBURY PARK, RHETORICAL, TEST SCORE over MERCANTE ($75).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 2026-05-01T07:22:55-05:00

Scott Shapiro: Kentucky Derby Day Full Card Selections/Analysis

April 30, 2026 | By Scott Shapiro

We made it! Kentucky Derby Day is upon us and I am sure everyone is excited as I am. I will get right to the card, but just a reminder about the $20,000 Exacta-Thon promotion we are running on Friday and Saturday. 10k is up for grabs both days with the goal of connecting on the most $2-exactas as possible. Each day, those who hit 6 will equally split $8,000 with the customer(s) who hit the most taking down the other $2,000. Register and have yourself a day!

Grade Descriptions: A= Highest Degree of Confidence, B= Solid Play, C= Least Preferred or Pass, X= Likely Winner but at odds probably too short to wager on.

Race 1:
Grade: C+
Use: 11 Powershift; 8 Bourbon Dream/3 Silent Way

Forecast: The Derby Day card gets started with a two-turn MSW event over the main track where I am logical other than being against #9 Winston Ave. Bob Baffert runners are likely to get bet on the big day and this colt has underwhelmed through 4 starts out west. #11 Powershift is the likeliest winner, but a tough read after the poor effort in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3).

Race 2:
Grade: B+
Use: 8 Taptastic

Forecast: The second is another 1 1/16-miles affair, but for first-level allowance foes where it appears #8 Taptastic should be tough to beat. The Tapit colt showed professionalism winning at two-turns with an inside trip to kick off his career. Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen thought enough of the effort to give him a shot 20 days later in the Arkansas Derby and was rewarded with a solid third-place run. He gets a rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz, drops in class, and is one of my top plays on the day.

Race 3:
Grade: B-
Use: 5 John Hancock; 6 Who Dey; 10 Vibe

Forecast: I will try to beat 3-1-ML favorite #12 Praetor in this second-level allowance at one-mile over the main track. The Chad Brown runner has posted solid efforts in all six career starts, but comes in off of 3 consecutive losses at 2-1 or lower. There are three runners I like equally that have the upside to beat the chalk. #5 John Hancock has not been seen since last year’s Louisiana Derby (G2), but showed strong talent as a 3YO. He is a tough read, but has serious upside still. #6 Who Dey is probably the most trustworthy of the bunch, but is just 1 for 5 over this oval. #10 Vibe should get a great trip and is more than capable if his Florida form transfers to Louisville.

Race 4: Derby City Distaff (G1)
Grade: C+
Use: 6 R Disaster/4 Ways and Means; 5 Splendora; 1 Usha

Forecast: This year’s Derby City Distaff (G1) is a bit tough for me to get excited about wagering on because the two favorites #4 Ways and Means and #5 Splendora beat this field with their best. That said, I am not sold we see that from either of them, so I will take a small swing here with #6 R Disaster. If the two chalks get beat, it is likely because the speed forgets to stop. This Florida-bred mare tired in the lane last out in the Madison (G1), but the top two ran huge in there. The price should be worth it to take a little shot.

Race 5: Turf Sprint (G2)
Grade: B
Use: 10 Joe Shiesty; 9 Litigation

Forecast: #3 My Boy Prince was made the 5-2-ML favorite off his win in the Shakertown (G2), but the son of Cairo Prince had a dream run in early April. He may get the trip again, but I prefer two runners drawn to the outside. #9 Litigation finished fourth to Cairo Prince last out, but did not have the trip the winner did. Trainer Brian Lynch turns to Irad Ortiz. It is hard to overstate the upgrade. I did land on #10 Joe Shiesty in the end though, in large part because of price. The Air Force Blue gelding tried harder than looks on paper last out when he finished fifth in the aforementioned Shakertown. He easily disposed of the other speed and lost by less than two lengths in the end. I expect him to have things his way on the front end in his third start of the form cycle.

Race 6: Knicks Go
Grade: B-
Use: 4 Be You

Forecast: I like #4 Be You in this one-mile race over the main track for restricted company. The son of Curlin won nicely two-back and then put forth a solid third when racing against the flow in early April in the Carter (G2). The class relief and likely race shape should benefit the Repole Stable runner.

Race 7: Distaff Turf Mile (G2)
Grade: B-
Use: 4 Temptable; 3 Portfolio Duration

Forecast: I will take on 5-2-ML favorite in this Grade 2 at over the grass. The American Pharoah mare won both of her first two starts for trainer Brendan Walsh this winter in Florida. Her tactical speed is a weapon that allows her to work out favorable trips, but they were ideal at Gulfstream Park. I prefer the upside of both #3 Portfolio Duration and #4 Temptable. Temptable was outrun in her lone start in the States last fall, but fits well with these. At 8-1, I made her my top choice.

Race 8: Pat Day Mile (G2)
Grade: C+
Use: 7 Crown the Buckeye; 1 Englishman; 6 Crude Velocity

Forecast: #1 Englishman and #6 Crude Velocity appear to be serious 3YO sprinters. Both come into this $750k event 2 for 2. One of them is likely to win this, but they may not get ideal trips in a race that should see an honest pace. #1 Englishman will win if he breaks well from his rail draw and makes an easy lead, but that is a big if. #6 Crude Velocity has a huge chance if the pace is honest and Florent Geroux is able to avoid traffic and get in the clear when they turn for home. The problem is their price may not account for those legitimate concerns, so I semi-reluctantly will side against both with #7 Crown the Buckeye. The Ohio-bred battled to the wire with Iron Honor in the Gotham, attracts Flavien Prat for the first time, and could get a perfect stalking trip. We will see if he is up to the challenge.

Race 9: American Turf (G1)
Grade: B+
Use: 4 Stark Contrast/12 Remember Mamba; 2 Let’s Be Frank; 10 Vasy

Forecast: #4 Stark Contrast looks like a potential single in horizontals in this year’s American Turf (G1). The Amerman Racing Stables colt finished a strong second to Fulleffort in the Jeff Ruby (G3) and showed a very strong turn of foot over the grass two-back in the Eddie Logan. He gets one of the best in the game onboard and looks tough. Take a peek at #2 Let’s Be Frank if you are playing trifectas or supers. His effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) is a complete toss due to his traffic issues and his loss last time was to a colt loose on the lead at Santa Anita. He is likely to be a massive price.

Race 10: Churchill Downs (G1)
Grade: B-
Use: 2 Cornucopian/5 Disruptor; 1 Disco Time; 7 Imagination

Forecast: #6 Knightsbridge comes in with the fastest races, but he has had things easy in his last three wins at Gulfstream Park compared to what he encounters today. I am willing to tip my cap to him if he handles this task at his likely price. #2 Cornucopian has unlimited talent. The question is what kind of trip will he work out along the inside. With a clean one, I like his chances. If not, there are a few others I will include in hopes of besting favorite.

Race 11: Turf Classic (G1)
Grade: C+
Use: 6 Rhetorical; 3 Asbury Park

Forecast: 5-2-ML favorite #6 Rhetorical has never travelled the 9-furlong distance he encounters in the Turf Classic, so he has questions to answer at a relatively short price. That said, there is not a lot of speed in here, which should have him on the lead or in a perfect stalking spot off a moderate early pace. I like his chances, but not enough to rush to the windows to wager on the Will Walden trainee. #3 Asbury Park takes on older runners for the first and does so off the bench, but trainer Chad Brown must love the way he is training to send him right to the wolves. He can finish at the distance, draws favorably, and gets Prat. He has to overcome a lot, but has a high ceiling.

Race 12: Kentucky Derby (G1)
Grade: B+
Use: 12 Chief Wallabee; 18 Further Ado/6 Commandment/15 Emerging Market; 8 So Happy/10 Wonder Dean; 7 Danon Bourbon; 22 Ocelli

Forecast: I did a lot of Derby focused content, so I am hopeful you have checked out the “1/ST Call Podcast” with Jeremy Plonk, “Horse Cents” with Bailey Armour, and my spaces recorded on Wednesday with Pete Denk. For those looking to get my last thoughts for the entire day, check out my 7:30 AM spaces on X (twitter) with Doug Nachman. I can’t wait!

Race 13:
Grade: B-
Use: 8 Gilded Bandit; 11 Noble Affair/1 Small Town

Forecast: I will go two-deep in late horizontals against 5-2-ML favorite #10 Buetane in this first-level allowance over the main track. Bob Baffert cuts the colt back in distance after a trio of underwhelming runs on the Derby Trail. #8 Gilded Bandit beats these if he works out a trip from off-the-pace. He had to work to get by a Brad Cox runner that ran fast and hard to the wire in his maiden score. He can finish. If not, #11 Noble Affair has the edge. He lost a tough one last out by a neck, but should be set for his best second off the bench.

Race 14:
Grade: B-
Use: 3 Interrogator/7 Act of Parliament; 10 Chianti Town

Forecast: I will hope to close the Derby card down with first-time starter #3 Interrogator. The Omaha Beach colt commanded $500k at the Keeneland Sept ’24 sale and has shown ability in the morning. Plus, it is probably a positive if Steve Asmussen had him spar with Hall of Fame in his final breeze before his debut. I expect a big run.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 2026-05-01T07:25:05-05:00

Scott Shapiro: Churchill Downs Spot Plays

April 29, 2026 | By Scott Shapiro

We are just two days away from the 152nd Kentucky Derby and I could not be more excited! Things pick up quite a bit in terms of quality on Thursday, which also marks the final chance at our month long “Blooming Bankrolls” promotion. For those just checking in, it is simple. Register on the promotional landing page, bet $100 on the Thurby card at Churchill Downs, and earn a $10 bonus. Here are the horses I plan to use to earn my $10.

Race 7:
My first play on the Thurby card comes in this MSW event for fillies and mares at two-turns over the grass where #1 Honfleur is likely to be a significant favorite. The Chad Brown trainee comes in off a pair of runner-up efforts since moving to the lawn in January. The presence of Flavien Prat and the inside draw should ensure a good trip, but I do not trust her to seal the deal. I prefer #4 Cape Sounion. The daughter of No Nay Never made her first start in the States and off a near 7-month break at Gulfstream Park in late March. The race was conducted over the all-weather not the lawn and things did not go well for this Brendan Walsh conditioned filly. She broke slow as the 6-5-favorite and struggled to relax from there. Cape Sounion should run a lot better in her second start in North America after shaking off the rust and getting accustomed to her new surroundings. Walsh legs up his main man Tyler Gaffalione for the first time.

Play: #4 Cape Sounion (3-1 ML)

Race 9: Opening Verse
There is no doubt this one-mile event over the lawn goes through #8 Lagynos. The son of Kantharos was excellent in New Orleans this winter winning a pair of graded stakes convincingly. That said, he is just 1 for 8 at Churchill Downs and is going to be a short price, so I will try to turn the tables on him with #5 Chasing the Crown. Unlike the favorite, this 7YO has thrived in Louisville throughout his career. In fact, he is 4 for 7 with 2 seconds over this turf course. The pace should be honest given the presence of #4 Quatrocento and #7 Mi Bago, which gives the son of Skipshot his best chance to spring the upset. He should be set for his best after a fourth-place effort to Lagynos to start the form cycle. Juan Hernandez will be aboard for the first time.

Play: #5 Chasing the Crown (15-1 ML)

Race 10: St. Matthews
This 6-furlong dash over the main track is almost always a competitive one and this year is no exception. #2 Built was made the 3-1-ML favorite by oddsmaker Nick Tammaro, but there are likely to be a few horses that take significant public support. One of those is #3 Be You. The Repole Stable gelding makes his second start off the bench after racing against the flow and moving wide into the lane in the Carter (G2) in early April. John Velazquez was aboard him when he won in Kentucky last fall and will be back onboard for the first time since. He should get an honest pace to run at. If he does, I expect him to out finish this field.

Play: #3 Be You (4-1 ML)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 2026-05-02T09:45:44-05:00

Marc Lawrence on Eskin

Kentucky Derby
18, 1, 12 trifecta
14 long shot
18, 1, 12 exacta box
18, 6, 12, 14 trifecta box
18 to win bet

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 2026-05-02T09:46:43-05:00

MARCO D Angelo

Kentucky Derby

#12 CHIEF WALLABEE (top choice to win)
#18 FURTHER ADO (2nd choice to win)
#9 THE PUMA (3rd choice to win)
#15 EMERGING MARKET (long shot to win)

Saturday 5/2/26 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Saturday 5/2/26 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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