Tuesday 5/12/26 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Thistledown - Race #5

#6 Take Five Charlie	He has been knocking on the door with similar and has some room to come forward in the second start back off the bench. Good draw to spy and finish.
#2 Poncho Jac	Wouldn't argue with you if you landed here -- he hasn't done much wrong through three starts and comes back fresh after rolling an allowance group in November. In the mix from the start.
#3 Machico Madeira	He's another who should be in the picture early, and the recent form is compelling enough as he looks for a hat trick while on the rise again.
Race Summary	Take Five Charlie has been landing shares with similar company, and I think he gets the best of the draw while meeting a couple other horses who are also in good form. Fun race for the level.

Thistledown - Race #6

#5 Smokin Joe	He was solid in the comeback run and doesn't seem overmatched with these if he can bring one of his better efforts, and I like that he can tap on the brakes and look for a first-over trip.
#9 Petesoldfashioned	He should be in line for a good trip from the outside and has carried some decent form around the country in the last six months, and he's probably a bit more tactical than he showed last time out. In the mix.
#3 Dream On Baby	He's pretty honest, but he has been settling for underneath shares after being in good spots turning for home in recent starts. Not impossible, just not that exciting for me today.
Race Summary	Smokin Joe has a bit of appeal here at a midrange price -- the layoff run was pretty gritty, and he might find the right kind of run while up close throughout.

Thistledown - Race #7

#2 Forum	Dirt seems to be the big question here, but his established form should make him tough if he's able to transfer it to this local main track. He'll get bet, but he might drill these.
#6 Moroder	He beat just three in the graduation run, but it at least suggested he's a good fit with the local crew, and I always like this kind of outside first-over trip.
#3 Rhodes	Think he's going to be a bit empty late, but something like his last keeps him in the picture if he's able to mix things up early and dig for a share late.
Race Summary	Nothing clever here with Forum -- he's proven sprinting and has faced some better groups than most of these have, so he might hit hard if he handles the new footing.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #1

#4 LONG TAIL SALLY (6-1)	Dirt form is good enough to warrant a value play in this spot.
#6 DAPHNE BREWNETTE (2-1)	Seeks duplicate of 1M race on synthetic track with Lasix two back.
#3 NOT TODAY BOSS (15-1)	Rallied from far back for third in $5,000 sprint, stretches out, gets in light.
Race Summary	In a field of unproven milers, LONG TAIL SALLY offers appealing value. In her three starts on conventional dirt, she factored to the stretch in a ‘key’ 1-1/16-mile route, took on Maiden Special Weight sprinters to no avail and, most recently, stalked the pace 4-wide from post 9 after a bad start in a race won by favored Pickle Shoes, who came back to finish second in a $25,000 starter allowance. Bet to win and place and play 4-3, 4-6 and 6-3 exactas.

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #2

#1 CHISEL (4-1)	Will be chiseling away at the lead for good route-to-sprint and layoff barn.
#6 GOOD STUFF (6-1)	Could be rounding to a repeat victory in his third start this year.
#3 EINSTEIN’S GHOST (9-2	Troubled third in return at this level for sixth Top-3 finish in seven starts.
Race Summary	CHISEL gets a needed break from allowance company and, perhaps, the needed pace flow to mount a contending rally in his seasonal debut for leading trainer Randy Klopp. His uncoupled stablemate, Ryan’s Wish, set the pace and held second as the favorite in his last three starts and should have company on the front end today. Bet to win and place and play a 1-ALL exacta.

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #6

#8 NEHALEM (9-2)	Up for third against track bias, sheds 10 pounds, steps up for new connections.
#5 STAR SAVER (9-5)	Forced in at break by winner, hard-ridden for third, added ground should help.
#3 RUN DAVID RUN (6-1)	Faded in longer route race at Fair Grounds as the favorites ran 1-2 throughout.
Race Summary	NEHALEM appears stuck in third gear since adding blinkers, but he ‘improved late’ in his first start on conventional dirt to finish third on a day when up-close types won by large margins. He sheds 10 pounds and is confidently spotted off the claim, so give him the nod for a win and place bet. Also play a 3-5-8 exacta box.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes
PURCHASE

Finger Lakes - Race 2	EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum) * DAILY DOUBLE (Races 2-3) * PICK 3 (50 Cent Minimum: Races 2-3-4)
Maiden Claiming $5,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 45 • Purse: $13,500 • Post: 1:24P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. CRYSTAL is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SPICEY TICEY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has th e highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. CRYSTAL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Jockey/Trainer combination r eturn on investment is at least +20.
5	SPICEY TICEY	2/1	3/1
1	CRYSTAL	3/1	7/2

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	CRYSTAL	1	3/1	Alternator/Front-runner	55	29	50.8	28.8	21.3
2	BERBICE HONEY	2	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	57.0	27.4	22.9
5	SPICEY TICEY	5	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	63	52	46.7	33.6	30.6
3	BROCKCASSO	3	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	62.5	4.8	0.0
4	LADY OF MERCIA	4	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	57	31	49.4	14.4	5.9
6	MARIGOLD MARIGOLD	6	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Assiniboia Downs
PURCHASE

Assiniboia Downs - Race 5	ROLLING DOUBLE / $1 CLASSIC HI 5 / .20 SUPERFECTA / .20 TRIACTOR / EXACTOR
Optional Claiming $12,500 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 73 • Purse: $17,000 • Post: 9:15P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR RESTRICTED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2026 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * DAMN THE TORPEDOES: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. CUMBERLAND FALLS: H orse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. GIRL FROM DE BAYOU: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MY ANTICIPATION: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MINERAL RIGHTS: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race.
4	DAMN THE TORPEDOES	3/1	9/2
2	CUMBERLAND FALLS	8/1	5/1
1	GIRL FROM DE BAYOU	7/5	9/1
3	MY ANTICIPATION	5/2	10/1
6	MINERAL RIGHTS	10/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	GIRL FROM DE BAYOU	1	7/5	Stalker	69	69	65.4	62.8	56.8
2	CUMBERLAND FALLS	2	8/1	Stalker	83	83	58.8	71.2	65.2
4	DAMN THE TORPEDOES	4	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	82	78	71.8	69.4	66.4
6	MINERAL RIGHTS	6	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	79	78	64.6	63.4	54.4
3	MY ANTICIPATION	3	5/2	Alternator/Trailer	78	74	38.0	62.3	57.8
5	CASUALLY CLASSY	5	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	76	65	66.8	55.6	46.1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Mountaineer Park - Race #8 - Post: 9:55pm - SO - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,500 Class Rating: 82

Rating:

#7 BROWN LIQUOR MAN (ML=9/1)


BROWN LIQUOR MAN - Nice return on investment for this rider and trainer tandem. Have to give this gelding a good shot. Ran a solid effort last race out within the last thirty days. Three consecutive improved speed figures (56-74-81) make this horse a solid contender.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 KHOZANDO (ML=2/1), #1 CAVENDISH (ML=7/2), #8 EMBER (ML=9/2),

KHOZANDO - This probable favorite may be out of condition without any recent workouts. CAVENDISH - Notched a quite unimpressive speed rating last time around the track in a Starter Allowance race on Apr 28th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that fig. EMBER - Hasn't been close to winning at all recently.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #7 BROWN LIQUOR MAN on the nose if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Allowance - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $41000 Class Rating: 80

FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS SIRED BY REGISTERED INDIANA STALLIONS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE APRIL 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $20,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 GOTANOTIONTODRINK 6/5
# 6 U R NOT THE FATHER 4/1
# 5 POLAR DRIFT 9/2

I think GOTANOTIONTODRINK is a quite good choice. I think having Moncada ride this gelding is a smart selection. Must be considered here if only for the solid Equibase Speed Figure earned in the last outing. Has to be considered against this field displaying respectable figs lately and an average speed rating of 66 under similar conditions. U R NOT THE FATHER - Displays the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 67 speed figure which is one of the top in this group of animals. When Richardville uses Burgos there's a good chance for winnings. POLAR DRIFT - He has posted decent numbers under today's conditions and should fare well versus this group. Will probably be one of the front-runners of the pack going into the midpoint of the race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $23000 Class Rating: 50

FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 12 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 UPTOWN ART 8/1
# 4 FLOYNESS 6/5
# 2 MARIAH'S BIG GIRL 9/2

I think UPTOWN ART is a very strong pick and the potential return justifies the unsafe nature of the long odds. She should have a strong outing versus this less demanding bunch. The speed figure of 50 from her latest race looks competitive in here. FLOYNESS - Has very good Equibase Speed Figs and has to be considered for a bet in this event. As of late Sanchez has been hot which may give the edge to this filly. MARIAH'S BIG GIRL - The average Equibase class figure of 30 makes this one difficult to beat. She looks competitive in this slot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the midpoint.

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Louisiana Downs - Race #7 - Post: 6:53pm - Maiden Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,500 Class Rating: 60

Rating:

#4 CLEARLY COLOSSAL (ML=3/1)
#7 MIDNIGHT COAL (ML=12/1)


CLEARLY COLOSSAL - Likes to go to the front and the fact that today is a shorter trip should help. I like to bet on this handicapping theory, a campaigner coming back off a nice contest within the last month. MIDNIGHT COAL - This horse could be tough this time around, especially since Pena rode last time around the track and now should be familiar with this one. When a sprinter is back in a race less than 10 days after his last outing, it generally means he's fit. This colt should be in top form, this far into his form cycle. You always have to be on the prowl for profit making rider/conditioner tandems; we have one right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 OLE MISTER (ML=1/1), #3 DIXIE STRONG (ML=5/1),

OLE MISTER - No picnic to bet on any questionable contender in a short distance race if he hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last couple months. DIXIE STRONG - Awfully hard to bet on this runner when he hasn't been showing any indications of eagerness lately. Don't feel this vulnerable equine will make a winning move in today's event. That last speed figure was substandard when compared with today's Equibase class figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#4 CLEARLY COLOSSAL to win at post-time odds of 3/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass