Thursday 5/14/26 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Churchill Downs - Race #5

#9 Noble Confessor	I liked his last and think he might still have some upside in the third start back -- he meets a solid group here but should find a perfect trip while racing right near the top throughout.
#4 Presider	He's capable of better than he showed last time out, but that was in a tougher spot than he'll find here, and there's not a ton of speed signed on. Top two might have it to themselves at some point.
#2 Coiled	He's in the frame for at least a piece of this if he's able to get back to one of his better recent tries. Price might be OK enough.
Race Summary	Noble Confessor makes a lot of sense here after a solid score in the second start of his campaign. He should be in a perfect spot into the far turn and has always hinted at having a bit of quality.

Churchill Downs - Race #7

#2 Master Controller	Price might be fun enough to take a little swing, as he got past a few horses late in the comeback run and might be in a really nice spot right up on the splits in a spot with one historically committed pace horse. Upside today makes him a little interesting.
#7 Fourth Dimension	Wouldn't argue with you if you landed here after that sharp Keeneland score, and he's bringing the form of a horse who keeps improving and may not yet have found his ceiling. Dangerous.
#5 Render Judgment	He got back to his better stuff last time around, and he has been tactical enough in the past to think he might find an OK kind of spying/midpack trip today. Another step forward would probably be enough and might put his name into some more serious conversations -- let's see.
Race Summary	Render Judgment is the horse I'm most interested to watch today, curious about whether he still has some upside, but I think Master Controller has some of the same kind of appeal with potential upside -- just at a better price.

Churchill Downs - Race #8

#2 Twirling Claire	Not sure how much I'd want to be here if the price got too short, but I think her recent form makes her pretty compelling here in a race without a ton of form on paper. Obviously one of the debuters could be tough, but I will lean on her proven finishing ability.
#2 Redhawk Riddler	She's one of a few interesting fresh faces, so be sure to get a look at all of them on the tote and track. Turfway works were quick on paper.
#10 Sheer Jazz	Wonder if she might still have some upside at what should be another big price, as she seemed to move forward at least a little bit when getting turf last out.
Race Summary	Twirling Claire has been knocking on the door and should get a decent run while saving some ground behind the pace.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Evangeline Downs - Race #1

#2 CAJUN AMI (8-1)	Upset possibility if he takes to the turf in second start off freshening.
#3 PLAY MO (5-2)	Piling up the checks, but morning-line favorite is winless since 2024.
#10 FLAMINGPROPOSITION (7-2)	Recent form is suspect, but he can stalk and pounce from up close.
Race Summary	CAJUN AMI, third behind Louisiana-bred stakes winner Cajun Star (6-20, $129k) in back-to-back dirt routes, transitions to turf after yet another late rally for third at 7F. He gets in light-weighted and is worth a win and place bet at a good price. Also play 2-3 and 2-10 exactas and a 2-13 exacta box if PACIFICISLANDTIME draws into the race.

Evangeline Downs - Race #2

#5 JADE’S WICKED DOLL (9	Perfectly spotted for a front-end repeat, today’s Best Bet.
#2 LITTLE BIT O STORM (5-2)	Seven-time runner-up in 17 starts should complete the exacta.
#3 GOOD BY FAITH (4-1)	Earned top recent speed fig in field when third off three-month layoff.
Race Summary	JADE’S WICKED DOLL dueled 3-wide from the outset but couldn’t get past the even-money winner despite a late burst two starts ago. She validated that effort with a wire-to-wire, maiden-breaking victory and should be long gone up front in this field. Bet to win and place and play 5-2 and 5-3 exactas.

Evangeline Downs - Race #4

#5 KHOZY MY BOY (5-2)	Class should tell in this spot on the cutback to a sprint for new connections.
#2 BUTLER CABIN (6-1)	Six-figure earner with six wins on dirt, plunges to bottom level.
#10 UXMAL (3-1)	Mid-60 Beyer type lived up to odds-on favoritism at one mile last out.
Race Summary	KHOZY MY BOY backed off a fast pace after he was caught 4-wide into the first turn, then he rallied mildly from fourth until he was squeezed out of contention at the top of the stretch. That was in a one-mile, $10,000 claimer at Oaklawn Park. The $280k lifetime earner can overpower these bottom-level claimers. Bet to win and place and play 5-2 and 5-10 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero
PURCHASE

Camarero - Race 3	Pick 5 (3-7) / Exacta / Trifecta / Daily Double 3-4
Claiming $14,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 46 • Purse: $7,500 • Post: 3:35P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 14 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 14 ALLOWED 3 LBS. 4# A INFERIORES Y DEBTS ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $14,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Stalker. SORRY FOR YOU is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SORRY FOR YOU: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. KING AFY: Horse's win percentage a t today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. ROCK DIAMOND V.: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
2	SORRY FOR YOU	4/1	3/1
5	KING AFY	3/1	5/1
1	ROCK DIAMOND V.	5/2	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	ROCK DIAMOND V.	1	5/2	Front-runner	42	31	35.1	28.3	21.8
5	KING AFY	5	3/1	Front-runner	47	49	31.2	24.5	20.5
4	MAURO'S WISH	4	9/5	Front-runner	29	27	18.8	18.8	11.8
2	SORRY FOR YOU	2	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	44	41	32.2	37.9	34.9
3	CUPID'S CONCERT	3	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	23	14	28.8	14.4	5.4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Belterra Park
PURCHASE

Belterra Park - Race 2	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / 50 cent Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) 50 cent Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
Claiming $12,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 84 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 1:05P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE NOVEMBER 14, 2025 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 14, 2026 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $10,500 1 LB. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $8,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY AND ALLOWANCES) (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. CAPO LUIGI is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CAPO LUIGI: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the t op three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
1	CAPO LUIGI	9/2	2/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	CAPO LUIGI	1	9/2	Alternator/Front-runner	88	81	82.0	79.4	76.4
5	ATTA BOY ANTHONY	5	5/2	Stalker	85	84	57.2	67.3	60.8
2	MELODY WIN	2	7/2	Alternator/Trailer	80	79	49.0	74.6	67.1
4	HUNTERTOWN	4	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	87	87	45.0	72.8	66.3
6	PENROD	6	3/1	Alternator/Non-contender	91	71	53.2	66.0	58.0
3	FOR MAMA	3	4/1	Alternator/Non-contender	84	70	43.6	68.6	59.6

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Hawthorne - Race #7 - Post: 5:40pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 92

Rating:

#7 CAUGHT OFF GUARD (ML=9/2)
#9 ANOTHER MYSTERY (ML=3/1)
#3 CRAFTY KING (ML=10/1)


CAUGHT OFF GUARD - I sense a speed duel developing here. If that happens, this gelding will be in perfect position to run down the leaders. Horses out of the barn of Berndt have been solid on the grass. Should perform well. ANOTHER MYSTERY - Have to watch for this animal on the grass. Last race at Fair Grounds, scored a big turf figure. Have to think he can do it again in this event. I'm focusing on the class of this horse, and this one is the 'classiest' of the bunch. This one has recorded the best recent turf speed rating at the distance and surface. Mojica knows this animal pretty well. Strong win percentage of 50 when horse and rider unite. CRAFTY KING - Santos's agent must like anytime Rodriguez gives them a mount; win pct together is tremendous.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 RIVER REDEMPTION (ML=7/2), #8 ALL CHOKED UP (ML=5/1), #5 LAMPLIGHTER JACK (ML=6/1),

RIVER REDEMPTION - This horse garnered a speed rating in his last event which likely isn't good enough in today's race. ALL CHOKED UP - The speed figures continue to sink, 85/80/74. Not a healthy omen. Finished eighth in his most recent effort with a somewhat easily forgotten speed fig. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to prove victorious after that in this group. LAMPLIGHTER JACK - Substandard speed rating last time around the track at Oaklawn Park at 6 furlongs. Don't believe this entrant will improve too much in today's race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#7 CAUGHT OFF GUARD is the play if we get odds of 4/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,7,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,7,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Laurel

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $49000 Class Rating: 87

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, STARTER, MD SIRED RACES OR MD BRED RACES OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $62,500-50,000. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 14 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $62,500, IF FOR $50,000, ALLOWED 4 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $45,000 OR LESS

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 MIZNER 5/2
# 4 WONDER MIST 2/1
# 6 CASEOFTHEMONDAYS 5/1

I think MIZNER is a very good choice. He should be given a shot given the very good speed numbers. Should be carefully examined in this race if only for the very good Equibase Speed Figure posted in the last contest. Has run well when racing a dirt sprint race. WONDER MIST - He has been running admirably and the speed figures are among the top in this group. Should keep the impressive string of finish positions intact today. CASEOFTHEMONDAYS - I can't pass on this colt given one of the most respectable jockey and handler combos on the grounds. Well above average win clip at this distance/surface.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Cross Country Pick Four

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Optional Claiming - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $49680 Class Rating: 100

IND - R6 - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $22,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, RESTRICTED OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 14, 2025 OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 14 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 LINZER 7/2
# 7 MONSIEUR CANDY 9/2
# 4 RUN CARSON 3/1

LINZER looks very good to best this field. Will probably come out strong - I have liked the way this gelding has moved sharply to the front end recently. Could best this field based on the speed fig - 96 - of his last race. MONSIEUR CANDY - Is a definite contender - given the 99 speed fig from his most recent race. Reliable average Equibase Speed Figs in turf sprint races make this animal a key contender. RUN CARSON - Earnings per start in turf sprint races is strong for this equine. Has strong Equibase Class Figures relative to this field - worth a look.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Evangeline Downs - Race #8 - Post: 8:24pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,000 Class Rating: 59

Rating:

#14 SEVERUS SQUALL (ML=5/1)
#10 CLOSING WITH HONOR (ML=8/1)
#11 EVERLOVINGMO (ML=4/1)


SEVERUS SQUALL - Last workout was the second fastest of the day. Unquestionably on edge for a good one today. CLOSING WITH HONOR - It looks like Melancon had to come to know this gelding on Apr 23rd when riding him for the first time. Back aboard again today. Have to give this gelding a chance. Ran a sharp race in the last race within the last 30 days. I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a comeback. EVERLOVINGMO - The Feb 21st affair at Delta Downs was at a class level of (66). Dropping to a lower level considerably, so he should be in a good spot to take this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 SAMUEL (ML=5/2), #6 CLOSING AGENT (ML=5/1), #1 JAYJAYJAY (ML=6/1),

SAMUEL - Mediocre speed figure last time out at Evangeline Downs at 5 furlongs. Don't feel this runner will improve too much in today's event. CLOSING AGENT - The speed figures are going downward. I'm not betting this steed off of that trend. JAYJAYJAY - Hard to play at 6/1 odds after the two most recent efforts. No picnic to bet on any less than sharp equine in a short distance clash if he hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last couple of months.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #14 SEVERUS SQUALL to win if you can get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [10,11,14]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [10,11,14] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None