Wednesday 7/1/26 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-01-2026, 08:11 AM

Scott Shapiro: Opening Day Saratoga Picks/Analysis

July 1, 2026 | By Scott Shapiro

The summer must be upon us because it is time to head back up north to historic Saratoga Race Course. The summer in upstate New York gets an earlier start this year with the Fourth of July festivities kicking things off at the country’s most popular meeting. The Opening Day card commences on Friday afternoon at 1:10 PM eastern and is headlined by a trio of stakes events. Here are the horses I like most to get things rolling for a meet I will be locked in on this summer at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET.

Race 1:
The opener is a first-level allowance event that will start run in front of the crowd given the 1 1/8-distance over the main track. Will Walden conditioned #4 Fact was made the understandable 5-2-ML favorite by oddsmaker David Aragona after his neck gate-to-wire victory at Horseshoe Indianapolis last month. He attracts Flavien Prat and is the one to beat, but I prefer #6 Founders. The son of Constitution was moved from turf-to-dirt by trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. this winter at Gulfstream Park and put forth a strong runner-up finish to co-favorite Steeze. The 4YO colt backed that up with another strong second against similar competition at Aqueduct in April when he was caught four-wide into the first turn despite a compact field of six. Joseph has given Founders time and brings him back in a spot where his stamina and newly realized dirt route form can be utilized best. I like his chances to run this group down in the final furlong under jockey Manny Franco.

Play: #6 Founders (3-1 ML)
Picks: 6-4-3

Race 8: Wild Applause
The first of a trio of non-graded stakes races begins with this $150k event for 3YO fillies, which have never won a stake where I like the chances of #6 Smexy. The Irish-import makes her third start in the States for trainer Brendan Walsh after being caught wide throughout in each of her first two tries. Two-back in her North American debut, the daughter of Mehmas was beaten out of the gate before being caught five-wide into the first turn and three-wide on the backstretch before being caught four-wide early in the Penn Oaks in late May. She draws a more favorable post on Friday, which should allow Tyler Gaffalione to avoid a wide voyage like the two riders before him. If Gaff is able to do so, I like Smexy’s chances of finding the Saratoga winner’s circle for the first time.

Play: #6 Smexy (7-2 ML)
Picks: 6-7-1

Race 10: Saranac
I will try a price in the male counterpart to the Wild Applause. This 1 1/16-mile event over the lawn for the boys sees Chad Brown conditioned #11 Arizona Territory listed as the 5-2-ML favorite off of back-to-back wins this spring. He merits major respect, but draws outside at a short price. I will take a swing with the bargain basement $12k purchase #3 Go Grey. The son of Knicks Go has rattled off consecutive wins against lesser since moving to the sod in April. He was able to run down a lone speed horse last out without a major setup taking on first-level allowance foes at Delaware Park. The competition gets a lot tougher in this spot, but he draws favorably and gets Paco Lopez in the saddle this time around. Paco is sure to give us a run for our money and at a pretty good price. Hopefully, it is good enough to spring the Opening Day upset.

Play: #3 Go Grey (12-1 ML)
Picks: 3-9-11

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-01-2026, 08:12 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #1

#4 Gun Policy	There isn't always a ton of room between some of the $15,000 and $7,500 races here, but this guy has certainly been in with better in the last two and probably handles this group if he can just maintain that form. Nothing to be afraid of -- price may reflect that, though.
#2 Tinseltown	He has settled for second at 8/5 and 4/5 in the last couple starts, but he's obviously a good fit at the local level and should be in the picture again. The main danger.
#6 Noble Hero	He has had a ton of chances and has never fired a competitive shot, but there isn't a ton of depth in this race, and something like the two-back run might honestly be enough to share here.
Race Summary	Gun Policy and Tinseltown look like the two to get past here on paper and likely on the board, but the former tries the level for the first time and probably finds this group soft enough to handle.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #3

#2 T'Ray	He's probably going to be tough if he can bring something like the last one, and I think he's got committed enough pace to own the front in this small field.
#6 Faaz	He flashed some pace in the two-back route try, and he might be in an OK spot tracking the top choice while stretching back out in the second start off the layoff. Could see it.
#4 Talkin Tough	He won't need to be a star to get in the picture with this group at first asking, so check him out on the tote and track.
Race Summary	T'Ray and Faaz look like a couple of dangerous forward players here, but T'Ray doesn't really need any better than his last to score today, so I'll give him the solid lean here.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#10 Bindi	Dropper has never seen a group this soft, and she has some positional pace to track the speed from the high draw. Lots to like, probably at something a lot shorter than the 5/1 ML offering.
#9 Knicks Factor	She was competitive with similar when trying winners for the first time last out, and is another who can find a decent spying spot from out here. Wouldn't argue much with you.
#8 Blast of Mischief	Speed just couldn't last at this level last out, but she's obviously a player right back with that sharp pace in a race where there isn't a lot of serious finishing form.
Race Summary	Bindi might get a great run of things from out here while dropping to try the level for the first time, and she probably still has some upside at this point in her 2026 campaign.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-01-2026, 08:12 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Delaware Park - Race #1

#3 SECRET TREASURE (3-1)	Well-beaten against better since claim, can’t be discounted off prior form.
#2 WINTER’S GHOST (2-1)	Once classy 7yo looks good on paper, running for half of May 31 claim price.
#7 MORNING THOUGHTS (8-1)	Good record at distance, runs for Toledo, flattened out in lane last out.
Race Summary	SECRET TREASURE, no factor in a fast 7F sprint and ‘sloppy’ 1-1/16-mile route race, tries to recapture the form leading to his claim at Tampa Bay Downs. He drew clear to win a $6,250 long sprint and ran a late scare into the 1-to-2 winner at 7F. Bet to win and place.

Delaware Park - Race #3

#4 RITABOOK (3-1)	Takes some catching, as always, in bid to surpass $100,000 in earnings at Delaware.
#6 COCO’S VIVIAN (6-1)	Scratched from a $25k starter allowance Saturday for this softer spot.
#1 BELLA PRIMA (8-1)	Won twice here in last two months to improve to 4-for-8 at 5-1/2F.
Race Summary	RITABOOK carried her speed to two wins and three seconds in starter allowance company at Delaware last summer and should take some catching again today after a solid return in which she got beat in a photo finish at 6F. Bet to win and place and play a 4-6 exacta box.

Delaware Park - Race #4

#4 BLUE FASHION (8-5)	Tries to bounce back off sub-par effort in latest, jockey stays on board off claim.
#3 BRAQUET (10-1)	Ran 1-2 in 17 of 30 starts on dirt, many times in six-horse fields or less.
#1 GOLDEN EIB MICRPHN (4-1)	Won last three $8k ‘starters’ by total of 10-1/2 lengths, enters new barn.
Race Summary	BLUE FASHION back-pedaled as the favorite in her first start locally, but she led at the stretch call in her four previous route races, winning from on and off the pace and finishing second twice. Hoping for a return to form upon entering a good claim barn. Bet to win and place and play a 1-3-4 exacta box.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-01-2026, 08:13 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing
PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race 6	Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 50 cent Pick 4 (Races 6-9) / 10 cent Superfecta
Allowance • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 91 • Purse: $50,000 • Post: 2:55P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 1 ALLOWED 3 LBS. (CLAIMING RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. MORE THAN GRACE is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MORE THAN GRACE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse h as the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. DON'T LISTEN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
2	MORE THAN GRACE	6/5	5/2
4	DON'T LISTEN	6/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	MORE THAN GRACE	2	6/5	Front-runner	83	94	86.6	84.2	79.7
6	ROCK ME GENTLY	6	4/1	Front-runner	81	67	79.2	66.2	59.7
4	DON'T LISTEN	4	6/1	Front-runner	76	79	71.4	72.0	65.0
5	JUMP A FOX	5	15/1	Trailer	81	78	30.2	66.4	58.4
3	WHATTA WORLD	3	7/2	Alternator/Trailer	83	82	51.2	74.4	68.9
1	SHUBAGAIL	1	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	75	70	30.2	67.0	57.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-01-2026, 08:13 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delaware Park
PURCHASE

Delaware Park - Race 6	$1 Double / $1 Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / .50 Pick 3 (Races 6-8) .50 LATE Pick 4 (Races 6-9)
Allowance • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 95 • Purse: $46,000 • Post: 1:30P
(PLUS UP TO 50% OTHER SOURCES) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON 20,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR RESTRICTED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JUNE 1, 2026 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE MAY 1, 2026 ALLOWED 4 LBS. (MAIDEN, CLAIMING, AND STARTER RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Trailer. EMBRACE MY UNCLE is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * EMBRACE MY UNCLE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MR. RIPPLE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. JASPER'S PRIDE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
2	EMBRACE MY UNCLE	8/1	9/2
7	MR. RIPPLE	2/1	5/1
5	JASPER'S PRIDE	6/1	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	RISK FACTOR	1	4/1	Front-runner	82	83	82.9	65.6	56.6
6	L GOLDEN BOY	6	8/1	Front-runner	87	87	77.6	76.8	65.3
3	FOREVER CHOCOLATE	3	10/1	Stalker	89	83	78.8	82.9	73.9
7	MR. RIPPLE	7	2/1	Stalker	96	91	76.6	80.2	75.2
5	JASPER'S PRIDE	5	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	95	90	83.4	80.6	74.6
2	EMBRACE MY UNCLE	2	8/1	Trailer	95	79	73.2	85.8	81.3
4	SUNDAESWITHSANDY	4	3/1	Alternator/Non-contender	96	86	86.0	74.0	64.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-01-2026, 08:13 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Belterra Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $20500 Class Rating: 42

FOR REGISTERED OHIO BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 EXPONENTIALLY 1/1
# 4 STORM SEARCH 7/2
# 2 MO DON'T STOP 12/1

My selection in this competition is EXPONENTIALLY. She should have a strong performance versus this softer group. Hard to pass on this mare with McKee in the irons. McKee has strong numbers that point to this mare to be a strong contender. STORM SEARCH - Appears to have a very good class edge based on the recent company kept. When a handler brings any pony back this soon it is a positive sign. MO DON'T STOP - This group is much softer than the last one she was up against. Sosa has strong numbers that point to this filly to be a strong contender.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-01-2026, 08:14 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Century Mile - Race #7 - Post: 4:58pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 53

Rating:

#10 HABADABADOO (ML=7/2)

HABADABADOO - This jockey and handler's horses have been producing a favorable ROI. A thoroughbred coming back this quickly after a solid race is a good sign.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 REDNECK REBEL (ML=1/1), #5 MAX BOOSTER (ML=9/2),

REDNECK REBEL - Doesn't look to have enough positive angles to justify the value. MAX BOOSTER - This horse hasn't been near the winner at the wire lately.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #10 HABADABADOO to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	10 with 2
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-01-2026, 08:14 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Penn National - Race #7 - Post: 8:39pm - RH - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 82

Rating:

#3 PRINCE OF RAIN (ML=6/1)
#1 UNCAPTURED STAR (ML=9/2)
#2 ELLIE'S BOYFRIEND (ML=7/2)

PRINCE OF RAIN - Expect this gelding to be back early and come flying down the lane. Another way to assign class is earnings per start. This horse has the top in the field. I think he'll be close at the end. UNCAPTURED STAR - Last ran at Penn National and finished fifth. Reviewing his PP lines, I see he was close at the end, within 5 of the winner. Gelding is a few starts into a come back here. Should give a top effort today. Sub-par outing last out at Penn National was due to the off-going (he ran fifth). Will most certainly do better in this race without the off-track conditions. ELLIE'S BOYFRIEND - This entrant could be tough in this race, especially since Cora rode in the last race and now should be plenty familiar with this one. I like that last contest on Jun 10th at Penn National where he ran second.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 STRAWBERRY TREAT (ML=2/1), #6 AMAZING BERNIE (ML=9/2), #5 MISCHIEF WARRIOR (ML=6/1),

STRAWBERRY TREAT - Didn't look so great last time. Probably won't make an impact in today's event. Disappointing speed rating in the last race at Penn National at 1 mile. Don't feel this mount will improve too much today. AMAZING BERNIE - Difficult to bet on any horse in a sprint affair at 9/2 when he hasn't shown any successful endeavors in sprints in the last couple months. MISCHIEF WARRIOR - Difficult to take this runner at these odds after the result (third) in the last affair. This pony ran a disappointing rating in the last race. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will likely get beat today running that number.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #3 PRINCE OF RAIN to win if you can get odds of 3/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,3] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-01-2026, 08:14 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Millarville

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Allowance - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 72

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR ALBERTA BRED WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. HORSES STARTING ON THE B CIRCUIT IN ALBERTA IN 2026 PREFERRED.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 ABSOLUT JOHN 5/2
# 4 STONE HOUSE 2/1
# 1 SHE'S ON FIRE 3/1

ABSOLUT JOHN looks solid to best this field. Should best this group here, showing very good figures of late. Should be given a shot in this contest if only for the quite good speed figure recorded in the last contest. Has solid Equibase Class Figures relative to this field - worth a look. STONE HOUSE - He has very good class ratings, averaging 70, and has to be considered here. Could provide positive profits based on respectable recent Speed Figures with an average of 50. SHE'S ON FIRE - Will almost certainly go to the front end and should never look back. Should be given consideration in this race if only for the respectable Equibase Speed Figure garnered in the last competition.

**HandyAndy** · 07-01-2026, 09:40 AM

THISTLEDOWN TIPS - WEDNESDAY, JULY 01, 2026
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 75% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 THISTLEDOWN $35,800 Allowance 6 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 12:50 PM ET
#4 COMMISSIONER D

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	4	Commissioner D	J A Bracho
PLACE	3-1	3	Lizzys Dream	B Tapara
SHOW	10-1	6	Bionic Saint	E Barbaran
WILD CARD	6-1	8	Drill Blitz	J Skerrett

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Greek Boutique	M L Martinez
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	5	Hello Evelyn	C Keiser

* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/6 BOX, 3/6/8 BOX

RACE #2 THISTLEDOWN $12,200 Claiming 6 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 1:20 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	5	Thanks Frank	L R Rivera
PLACE	9-2	6	Bourbon On Fire	L A Gonzalez
SHOW	6-1	4	Little Vaquero	N Vigil
WILD CARD	5-1	2	Bucket List	E Paucar

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	3	Aye Aye Sir	B Tapara

* EXACTA: 5-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX
LATE SCRATCH: Horse #9 - Frosty Paws
* REPLACE WITH: Horse #2 - Bucket List

RACE #3 THISTLEDOWN $26,400 Maiden Special Weight 6 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 1:50 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	6-1	1	Captain Carney	E Barbaran
PLACE	6-5	5	Whiskey Point	L A Gonzalez
SHOW	7-2	4	Usain Th	F Salazar Becerra
WILD CARD	9-5	3	Kukuk	A Chavez

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	2	Codec	M Cedillo

* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX

RACE #4 THISTLEDOWN $12,600 Claiming 6 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 2:20 PM ET
#8 ROCK THE RED

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	8	Rock the Red	V R Fernandez
PLACE	6-1	7	Express Cruiser	D L Parker
SHOW	9-2	3	Star Weaver	A Chavez
WILD CARD	12-1	6	So Dialed In	J Skerrett

ALTERNATE 1	7-2	2	Sunset Town	R Feliciano
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	5	Stay Thirsty Amigo	L R Rivera

* EXACTA: 8-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/7/8 BOX, 3/6/7 BOX

RACE #5 THISTLEDOWN $17,400 Claiming 6 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 2:50 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	2	Feeling Easy	F Salazar Becerra
PLACE	4-1	3	Angel Im Not	V R Fernandez
SHOW	7-2	1	Shes a Storm	E Barbaran
WILD CARD	10-1	7	Lady Loves Money	R Feliciano

ALTERNATE 1	3-1	6	The Kids Prayer	B Tapara
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	4	State of Grace	A Rodriguez

* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX

RACE #6 THISTLEDOWN $12,600 Claiming 1 Mile ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 3:20 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-5	4	Tiz Mia	A Chavez
PLACE	6-5	2	Miss Classified	R Feliciano
SHOW	8-1	3	Divine Fashion	T D Houghton
WILD CARD	8-1	1	Sacred Connection	J Simpson

ALTERNATE 1	4-1	5	Beautiful Mandate	C Keiser

* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX

RACE #7 THISTLEDOWN $34,000 Claiming 5 1/2 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 3:50 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	1	Midnight Goddess	B Tapara
PLACE	2-1	2	Its Browns Time	C Keiser
SHOW	5-1	5	Queen Kitty	A Rodriguez
WILD CARD	6-1	4	Hot Princess	M Cedillo

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	3	Vertisalute	T D Houghton

* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX
LATE SCRATCH: Horse #6 - Laketown Elly
* REPLACE WITH: Horse #4 - Hot Princess

RACE #8 THISTLEDOWN $18,300 Claiming 1 Mile ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 4:20 PM ET
#2 KINDERHOOK

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	7	Oaks Honey	R Feliciano
PLACE	9-2	4	Into Gold	T D Houghton
SHOW	7-2	6	Oklahoma Joe	A I Diaz
WILD CARD	10-1	5	Watchoutforweaver	L R Rivera

* EXACTA: 7-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/7 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX
LATE SCRATCH: Horse #2 - Kinderhook LATE SCRATCH: Horse #3 - General Winston
* REPLACE WITH: Horse #6 - Oklahoma Joe * REPLACE WITH: Horse #5 - Watchoutforweaver

Wednesday 7/1/26 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Wednesday 7/1/26 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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