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(953) Arizona Diamondbacks at (954) Pittsburgh Pirates: Total
Play Sport/Type:
MLB / Total
Date/Time:
Jul 27 2026 6:40 PM EDT
Line Provider:
Draftkings
Play Rating:
5%
Odds:
-119
Play:
Total Over 9.0 (-119) Merrill Kelly (RHP), Mitch Keller (RHP) Must Start
Merrill Kelly’s recent results have improved, yet the underlying profile remains vulnerable. He owns a 7.30 xERA and 5.86 FIP with a 45% hard-hit rate, 13% barrel rate, and only 5.64 strikeouts per nine innings. Kelly has also allowed at least one home run in six consecutive starts, creating a favorable matchup for a Pittsburgh lineup with legitimate power.
Arizona supplies the other half of the scoring equation. The Diamondbacks have produced a .361 estimated wOBA and .849 OPS against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks. Mitch Keller enters with a 5.26 xERA, a low strikeout rate and a 5.68 ERA at home. Arizona’s current form gives it an excellent opportunity to generate traffic and extra-base damage against him.
The full-game total also brings two struggling bullpens into play. Arizona’s relief staff has recorded a 6.15 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over its last seven games, while Pittsburgh’s bullpen has posted a 6.38 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Both starting pitchers project to leave meaningful innings for relief units that have consistently allowed late scoring.
I'm looking for both offenses to have success against the starters and bullpen here and believe this game lands with a double-digit total and is worth a step-up wager.
Play: Over 9 (-119) Good to 9.5
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