12-28-11

[Mr. IWS]

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[Mr. IWS]

TheBustedBookie
"Where the product sells itself"

Wednesdays Card:
10 unit - New Mexico -1.5 / NCAAB
5 unit - Fairfield +4.5 / NCAAB
5 unit - Seton Hall +15.5 / NCAAB
5 unit - Missouri State +10.5 / NCAAB
5 unit - Indiana +5.5 / NCAAB

[Mr. IWS]

What Bettors Need to Know: Air Force vs. Toledo
By Covers

Air Force vs. Toledo (-3, 71)


MILITARY BOWL STORYLINES

1. Toledo and Air Force meet for the first time, but only one team will have the same coach it had when the season started. Tim Beckman, who was 21-16 in three seasons at Toledo, left Dec. 9 to take the same position at Illinois. Beckman turned around a program in disarray with three straight losing seasons into a team playing in its second straight bowl. Offensive coordinator Matt Campbell will serve as interim coach. Air Force is coached by Troy Calhoun, who has the Falcons in a school-record fifth straight bowl game.

2. A statistical mismatch can be found in rushing defense. Toledo is 23rd in the nation among the 120 FBS teams at 123.1 yards per game while Air Force is 113th (227.7). The Rockets will face the No. 2 rushing offense (320.3); the Falcons go against the No. 14 running attack (221.1), led by Adonis Thomas and his 107 yards per game (17th in the country). Toledo’s pass defense is 109th at 277.9.

3. Air Force is 10-10-1 in bowl games and has won two straight, including a 14-7 victory over Georgia Tech in the 2010 Independence Bowl. Toledo is 7-4, including a 34-32 loss to Florida International in last season’s Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl.

4. Air Force is 17-8 against non-conference foes in five seasons under Calhoun and has won 10 of its last 12 such games, with the losses at Oklahoma in 2010 and at Notre Dame this season.

LINE: Toledo -3, 71. Not a lot of movement on this spread but a few places in Vegas have moved it up to 3.5. The total, one of the highest of the bowl season, is holding at 71.

ABOUT AIR FORCE (7-5, 3-4 Mountain West): Tim Jefferson holds the school record for most wins by a quarterback with 28, but doesn’t throw much in the Falcons’ run-happy offense. He attempted only 161 passes this season, completing 60.9 percent of them with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions. Air Force played MWC foe Boise State tough on the road before falling 37-26.

ABOUT TOLEDO (8-4, 7-1 Mid-American): The Rockets also played Boise State – a 40-15 loss at home on Sept. 16. Toledo has won three straight and seven of its last eight. Terrance Owens took over at quarterback for Austin Dantin (concussion) and threw nine touchdowns in the last three games. Toledo averaged 42.2 points, eighth in the nation.

TRENDS:

Toledo is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite but 1-4-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games.

Air Force is 5-2 in its last seven games

PREDICTION: Air Force 35, Toledo 31 – Calhoun and the Falcons will figure out a way to keep the Rockets somewhat grounded and exploit Toledo’s suspect pass defense.

[Mr. IWS]

What Bettors Need to Know: California vs. Texas
By Covers

California vs. Texas (-3, 47)


HOLIDAY BOWL STORYLINES

1. After its 12-year postseason run was snapped in 2010, Texas improved enough this season to return to a bowl game. But after a 4-0 start propelled them all the way to No. 11 in the rankings, the Longhorns stumbled down the stretch, losing three of their final four games.

2. As bad as Texas was in the season’s final month, California was the opposite, winning three of its final four games and losing only at Stanford by a field goal. Running back Isi Sofele ran for at least 96 yards in all four of those games, including a season-high 190 on 23 carries in a 23-6win against Oregon State.

3. These two teams couldn’t be more different at the quarterback position. Zach Maynard, California’s dual-threat junior, started every game of the season and averaged 246 yards of total offense per game. Texas flip-flopped at quarterback all season, starting with incumbent Garrett Gilbert, who ended up getting injured and transferring. The Longhorns wound up with a two-quarterback system utilizing youngsters David Ash and Case McCoy.

Line: Texas-3, 47. This line dropped from Texas -4 to -3 with the juice about 10 cents higher before Texas bettors moved the number back up to -4 at most books. The total opened at 48 but most shops have it either at 47 or 47.5.

ABOUT TEXAS (7-5, 4-5 Big 12): The Longhorns’ struggles offensively – particularly at quarterback – opened the door for the defense to shine brightly in 2011. Texas was tops in the Big 12 and 14th nationally at 315.3 yards allowed per game, but the team is coming off an awful performance in a 48-24 loss at Baylor to close the regular season. As table of running backs, led by true freshman Malcolm Brown, averaged 210 yards on the ground and helped carry the Longhorns’ offense.

ABOUT CALIFORNIA (7-5, 4-5 Pac-12): This is the Golden Bears’ third appearance in the Holiday Bowl. Sofele averaged 141.3 rushing yards over the season’s final four games to finish with 1,266 yards and nine touchdowns in the regular season. He’ll be asked to carry the load against a Texas defense that was stout against the run, surrendering only103 yards per game. Cal ranks in the top 50 but no higher than No. 25 nationally in virtually every major offensive and defensive category.

TRENDS:

Cal is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall but 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games in December.

Texas is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 games against teams with winning records and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 bowl games.

PREDICTION: California 28, Texas 17. The Golden Bears will ride the legs of Sofele to move to 6-2 in bowl games under coach Jeff Tedford.

[Mr. IWS]

Pick 'n' roll: Wednesday's best NBA bets

Los Angeles Clippers at San Antonio Spurs (4, 194.5)

It hasn’t taken the Los Angeles Clippers long to get comfortable with the new faces in the locker room.

The Clippers have five new players on the roster, with Chris Paul obviously being the biggest offseason acquisition. He chipped in 20 points and nine assists in the club’s 105-86 rout of Golden State as 6-point favorites. Caron Butler added 11 points and 10 boards in the victory.

"We just have a great vibe here," Caron Butler told reporters. "It reminds me of Dallas last year. We were always together. If somebody was down, we'd pick 'em up. After games, we'd go out. The camaraderie was always really tight, and I feel the same thing here.”

Everybody’s expecting a drop off from the aging Spurs this season, but they got off to a good start with a revenge win over Memphis to open the year. They’d better be ready to run in this one.

Pick: Clippers

Oklahoma City at Memphis Grizzlies (1, 104.5)

A lot of Oklahoma City’s success last season stemmed from excellent free throw shooting. The Thunder owned the league’s best percentage at the charity stripe and they look like they’re ready to pick up where they left off last year.

Oklahoma City hit 29 of its 31 attempts from the line in Monday’s 104-100 win over Minnesota.

"We've always been a good shooting team at the line and we like to get there," Oklahoma City coach Scott Brooks told reporters. "We have to attack and our jump shooting is much improved but we still have to get to the basket. We still have to attack and create opportunities around the rim. Our guys stepped up."

Oklahoma will bring it to the paint against the rival Grizzlies. The Thunder were shocked by the Grizzlies in the playoffs last season, but they’ll be out for payback Wednesday.

Pick: Thunder

[Mr. IWS]

College funds: Wednesday's best NCAAB bets

Seton Hall Pirates at Syracuse Orange (-15.5, N/A)

There are plenty of spots on the Big East schedule to stumble, and No. 1 Syracuse knows that list includes Seton Hall, especially after last season. The Pirates shot 59 percent from 3-point range and routed the Orange in a 90-68 at the Carrier Dome. They'll try to repeat the performance Wednesday in the teams' Big East opener at Syracuse.

Even though Seton Hall’s leading scorer from that game has moved on, the defeat sticks with this Syracuse team, including sophomore Dion Waiters, who said he had this game circled on his calendar. The Pirates are off to their best start since 1992-93, when they won the conference.

Senior Herb Pope is skilled enough to carry Seton Hall back to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2006. Pope was a member of the supporting cast in last year’s upset at Syracuse, but this season he is averaging a double-double (20.3 points, 11.4 rebounds) and put together a string of four straight 20-plus point games this month.

Pope’s board work inside could keep Seton Hall within striking distance, as the Orange rank 11th in the Big East in rebounding margin.

Pick: Pirates

Villanova Wildcats at West Virginia Mountaineers (-8, N/A)

Teams projected to finish smack in the middle of the Big East scrum square off in Morgantown, W. Va., as Villanova and West Virginia begin their conference schedule Wednesday.

The Mountaineers were picked seventh and the Wildcats eighth in the Big East preseason poll, and between them West Virginia senior Kevin Jones was the lone selection among three preseason all-league teams.

Jones was named Big East Player of the Week after averaging 23 points and 14.7 rebounds and hitting 31-of-55 shots against Tennessee Tech, Missouri State and Baylor. The senior forward averages a double-double (21 points, 11.9 rebounds), and contributed his eighth this season with 28 points and 17 boards in Friday's 83-81 loss to Baylor in the Las Vegas Classic.

Villanova is 5-0 at home but just 1-5 in road and neutral-site games, including losses at rivals Temple and Saint Joseph's in which the hosts broke things open in the second half to win by double digits.

Pick: West Virginia

[Mr. IWS]

Statics Picks Air Force ML


GhoustBusters Capping Service
California ML

The dogs been dying lately they gonna bark from heaven to morrow like Komi Hendrix kissing the skie

[Mr. IWS]

LuckyDaySports

Wedneday’s Comp Play

NCAAF
Toledo vs Air Force OVER 71

[Mr. IWS]

DOUBLE DRAGON NCAA "RED PHONE" GAME OF THE YEAR
IOWA +14 vs oklahoma (30th)

HYDRA
FLORIDA STATE -3 vs notre dame (29th)
BAYLOR -9.5 vs washington (29th)

TOP
AIR FORCE +3 vs toledo (28th)
CALIFORNIA +4 vs texas (28th)
NORTHWESTERN +10 vs tecas a&m (31st)
VANDERBILT -PK (-120) vs cincinnati (31st)

REGULAR
TULSA -PK vs byu (30th)
IOWA STATE +3 (-125) vs rutgers (30th)
WAKE FOREST +7 vs mississippi state (30th)
UTAH +3 (-120) vs georgia tech (31st)
UCLA +3 (-120) vs illinois (31st)
VIRGINIA +3 vs auburn (31st)

[Mr. IWS]

Ice picks: Wednesday's best NHL bets

Boston Bruins at Phoenix Coyotes (+150, 5.5)

After a sluggish start to the season, Boston Bruins coach Claude Julien hasn’t had much to complain about since. They lost seven of their first 10 games, but are now battling for top spot in the Eastern Conference.

"The one thing I said to them was we've gone from 15th to first in less than two months; they deserve a lot of credit for that and they worked hard to accomplish that and I think it's important that they enjoy the three days of the Christmas holiday they have," Julien told reporters.

Boston pounded Florida 8-0 before the break as Brad Marchand led the way with three goals and five points.

But betting the first game off the break can be tricky. Phoenix dropped a 4-3 decision to the Los Angeles Kings on Monday and will have a tough time with the Bruins, who have won nine of their last 10 road games.

At this price, we’re looking at the over.

Pick: Over

Los Angeles Kings at Chicago Blackhawks (-195, N/A)

The Los Angeles Kings are 2-0-1 since Darryl Sutter took over head coaching duties and the urgency to turn the club’s season around isn’t lost on the new coach.

The Kings have a chance to turn things around this month.

"The schedule is what the schedule is. For everybody, especially out West here, practice time is limited and a lot of it is more (about) recovery,” Sutter told reporters. “You look at our schedule in January, and it's pretty fortunate. I think we have three sets where we have two days between games. Then you go to February and it's crazy.”

This is a big one for the Kings, who will use this game as a measuring stick. Sutter is the kind of tough coach this team needs and he's getting the best out of this club right now. We’ll take a shot on the road dog.

Pick: Kings

[Mr. IWS]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Western Michigan (+2) Tuesday.

Wednesday it’s Air Force. The deficit is 2949 sirignanos.

[Mr. IWS]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

779- 558 57 % Free Play Run over 3 YEARS

Free play 21-11 run WED West Vig -8

[Mr. IWS]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Wednesday

New Jersey NHL -135

[Mr. IWS]

Dunkel

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 28 Time Posted: 1:00 p.m. EST (12/11)

Game 221-222: Toledo vs. Air Force (4:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toledo 90.673; Air Force 89.560 Dunkel Line: Toledo by 1; 63 Vegas Line: Toledo by 3; 69 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Air Force (+3); Under

Game 223-224: California vs. Texas (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: California 92.524; Texas 99.560 Dunkel Line: Texas by 7; 51 Vegas Line: Texas by 3; 47 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Texas (-3); Over

[Mr. IWS]

DCI NBA

Season
Straight Up: 11-9 (.550)
ATS: 7-15 (.318)
ATS Vary Units: 26-52 (.333)
Over/Under: 6-15 (.286)
Over/Under Vary Units: 13-39 (.250)

Indiana 104, TORONTO 102
Miami 97, CHARLOTTE 88
DETROIT 104, Cleveland 96
ATLANTA 101, Washington 89
MEMPHIS 102, Oklahoma City 101
NEW ORLEANS 91, Boston 90
SAN ANTONIO 106, L.A. Clippers 96
DENVER 112, Utah 98
PHOENIX 105, Philadelphia 102
GOLDEN STATE 112, New York 109