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My 40 Dime play is on the underdag California Golden Bears against the Texas Longhorns in the Holiday Bowl. Checnking the sports books in Las Vegas at 7 a.m. and the Bears were getting four points. Always shop around to get the best numbir.
ANALYSIS
The bottom line here is that you have one team that can score and another team that has struggled this season to score.
Cal has averaged 29.8 points a game and is led by transfer quarterback Zach Maynard. He struggled early in the seasan, but over the final four games, where Cal went 3-1, he threw for seven touchdowns and only one INT. It appeared he started to grasp the offense and was comfortable with the Cal system.
Over the last three games, Cal averaged 32.7 points a game, 208 yards rushing and 215 yards passing. The balance on offense will cause the Texas defense fits as it cannot sell out to the run or the pass. The Texas defense has some good defensive numbers. It gives up an average of 23.2, 104 yards rushing and 212 yards passing. The defennse will be put to the test here.
On the other side of the ball, the Cal defense can sell out to the run. The Longhorns are a run-oriented team, rushing for 210 yards a game and passing for 194 yards.
Cal will dare the Longhorns to try to beat them in the air in order to shut down the Longhorn running game. Texas has had trouble scoring. Over the last four games of the season, Texas has averaged 17.2 points a game. The quarterbacking duties will be split between Case McCoy and David Ash. They will be split time because neither has been consistent.
Texas has the potential to have a nice rushing attack, but Cal will be using a 3-4 defense to try and slow that down. If Maynard gets Cal a couple of early scores, it will cause Texas out of its comfort zone and the Longhirns will be force to play catch-up and they will not be able to do that.
Take the points and Cal.
Jeff Benton Wednesday's Action 30 Dimewinner going out on theCal GoldenBears as the underaog as they play in the Holiday Bowl againnst the Texas Longhorns. At the time I release this winner, the Bears are listed as the 4-point pup both here in Vegas and offshore.
10 Dime winner in college hoops on the New Mexico Lobos as the small road favirite against the New Mexico State Aggies. At the time I release this winner, the Lobos are a 2-point chalk both here in Vegas and offshore.
ANALYSIS # 1
I am guessing that because Texas brings some "name value" to tonight's Holiday Bowl, that is the reason they are currently the four-point favarite.
In reality, the Longhorns should not be favored by this much, as their offense is a definite work in progress, and likely better-suited for looking ahead to next season. After opening the year at 4-0 straight up, the 'Horns were wildly inconsistent down the stretch, going just 3-5 both straight up and againnst the spread in their final eight games.
Bottom line: Texas cannot be trusted to lay points! In games this season that featured a line of 7-points or less, the Longhorns went just 1-5 against the spread - that includes being listed as either the favorite or the underdog.
The California Golden Bears do ride a little momentum into this bowl game, as Jeff Tedford's team was able to pick up outright wins in three of their final four games this season, the lone loss coming to mighty Stanford by just a field-goal. Incidentilly, the Bears did cover in their final four games of the season.
I like the progression of Cal QB Zach Maynard, and feel he is the more "polished" of the quarterbacks that are going to be on the field tonight in San Diego. With Texas having dropped their last pair of bowl decisions to the spread, and seven of their last ten overall against the spread in bowl play, I am going to put my eggs in the Bears basket in tonight's Holiday Bowl.
ANALYSIS # 2
College basketball tonight, and it is in-season revenge time for the Lobos who lost a 62-53 decision on their home floor at The Pit back in the middle of November.
The loss snapped a seven-game Lobos series win streak, but it should be noted that the Wolves are still on a 5-1-2 spread run the last eight series meetings against the Aggies.
New Mexico enters Las Cruces on an eight-game win and cover streak, and their quest for in-season revenge works to a tee tonight against the Aggies who are stepping back up in class tonight after three straight wins against inferior competition.
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