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Islam and Over 2.5 -185
2 to win 1.08
There is no doubt that I feel Garry has a legitimate shot to win this fight. This is why I am not going to touch the Money Line. Even tho his implied Odds to win are 78% which I kind of agree with, it is still flirting with the line where Garry has really surprised me in the past. This is one fight that Islam is coming into where I actually hold a tad of doubt. I am expecting Garry to give resistance here and he isnt going to just give up takedowns and shell up and die. Even if he is put in bad spots, he is smart enough to find ways to survive for awhile at least. So I like over 2.5 and as far as the side combined with that? I cant bet against Islam until I see him lose.
Magny +3.5 -120
1 to win .83
This is more than a feeling here. Magny is one of those fighters that is solely predicated on extending fights. The longer the fight goes, the better his chances get. Brahimaj has 1st round submission upside, but are you really sold on him? Do you really think that if this gets out of round 1 that Magny cant win 1 round or even the fight? You can hold back and live bet this after round 1 if it makes it there and maybe get better odds if Magny is down, but I like this spot for him. I actually like him to outright win this fight.
Jalen Turner -135
1.35 to win 1
I feel like people are banking on the calf kicking here as a big issue for Turner with his tall and skinny legs. Sooooo many people are picking against him here but they arent diving into details. He is a switch fighter and has the ability to switch on and off. He never stays south paw or Orthodox. He switches on and off all fight. The issue for me here is what Turner will we see. However, I think Turner has more edges almost everywhere here if he actually shows up. People are also saying he is on the cusp of retiring because of what transpired in the past. He just signed a 5 Fight Deal. So that is not relevant at this point.
Charles Johnson -125
1.25 to win 1
I think this line is a bit too small here. Sure CJ cant be trusted in many spots, but this is a matchup where I think if he stays on his bike, he can start to run away with this fight late. His cardio always checks out and his range fighting is clearly better here, but he just needs to really limit the bone headed decisions and keep the fight in his wheelhouse. If he does that, I think CJ can coast to a pretty comfortable win here. The line makes me nervous tho and ultimately I am hoping this is not a trap.
Dern -186 (PolyMarket)
2 Units 1.08
I just dont see where she loses this fight. The Grappling, The Striking, The 5 Round Experience, The Durability, and the ability to get dirty if she needs to. The one place where she lacks in this fight is the wrestling. But do you really fear her on the ground if she gets grounded? I think this fight is a bit low. I made a ton of money with Gillian, but not here.
Submission Parlay +719
.20 to win 1.43
Dern Sub
Alverez Sub
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