1-2-12

[Mr. IWS]

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[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer's CFB BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR! *12-4 Lifetime! - Monday!
I'm taking the points with Wisconsin on Monday. The Badgers are two plays away from an undefeated record and possibly playing for a national championship. I was surprised at how quickly Wisconsin was removed from the mix after losing in the last second to Michigan State. They also suffered a late loss to Ohio State - and much of the national sports media forgot just how good this team is. First of all, QB Russell Wilson had a Heisman-contending season, but was rarely mentioned late in the season due to the two losses. But Wilson finished the regular season with a 31-to-3 TD-INT ratio. The NC State transfer connected on 72.5% of his pass attempts, averaging more than 10 yards per pass. The Badger receiving corps is also underrated. Nick Toon and Jared Abbrederis have 55 and 51 receptions, respectively. Both receivers have over 800 yards receiving - and combined with Jacob Peterson and Montae Ball, have 30 TD receptions. Speaking of Ball, he rushed for over 17-hundred yards and 32 TDs, while running for 6.4 yards per pop behind the solid and big offensive line. The powerful and talent-laden offense will face-off against a mediocre Oregon defense that's 60th in total yards allowed, and 85th against the pass. While the Badger offense puts up over 44 ppg (5th in the nation) the team also plays outstanding defense. Wiscy is 8th overall, 3rd against the pass, and they allow just 17 ppg. They've also had a month to prep for the "fast-break" Oregon offense. Wisconsin is a healthy 8-1 ATS against teams that average at least 31 ppg. The Ducks' offense has not fared too well in BCS bowl action, scoring just 17 and 19 points the last 2 years, losing both games to Ohio State and Auburn. And while I'm not the first to note this, it should be repeated that when you consider season openers against Boise & LSU, 2 more teams with plenty of time to prep for the Oregon offense, the Ducks have been completely shut down 4 times in all. I believe it's the Oregon defense that's going to struggle in the Rose Bowl, rather than Wisconsin's. And again, I'm highly impressed with the underrated talent of the Wisconsin offense. Wisconsin is on a 6-1 ATS run as a bowl dog of 3 1/2 to 10 points and they're on a 6-0 ATS run when playing with at least 2 weeks off between games. Meanwhile, Oregon, slightly overrated by the media and public, are 1-4 ATS as a bowl favorite and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against the Big-10. I believe Wisconsin will win outright, but my play is to take the points. Wisconsin plus the points on Monday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob CFB strong opinions:

Penn St +7.5
Under 48 or more in Georgia/Mich St
Neb +3 or more
Flor -2 (-3 or less)

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang


100 Dime Play

Stanford +4


50 Dime Play

Michigan State/Georgia Under 49.5


30 Dime 3-Team Parlay

Penn State +7.5 / Wisconsin-Oregon Over 72 / Stanford-OK State Under 74

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer

Wisconsin
South Carolina

Baylor

Mavs

[Mr. IWS]

Lang's Free Pick is on Oregon -5

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns

10* - Under 72 – Wisconsin/Oregon

10* - South Carolina -2.5

10* - Stanford +4

9* - Penn St +7

10* - Milwaukee +5

10* Philadelphia Flyers ML -145

10* - LA Kings ML -150

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

Strong Opinion
PENN ST. (+7.5) 26 Houston 27
TicketCity Bowl
02-Jan-2012 9:00AM Pacific
This game will come down to how well a great Penn State defense can defend a prolific Houston offense and every indication is that the Nittany Lions can win that battle. Houston’s offense put up crazy numbers this season, averaging 50.3 points on 589.6 yards at 7.7 yards per play in 12 games against Division 1A opponents that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team. That unit was actually a slightly better 2.1 yppl better than average when Case Keenum was in the game and Keenum averaged 8.9 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback. Penn State’s defense, meanwhile, is 1.2 yppl better than average for the season, yielding just 4.5 yppl and 16.5 points per game to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defense.

It appears that Houston’s offense has a pretty solid 0.9 yppl advantage based those ratings. However, the Cougars racked up huge yards against bad defensive teams while playing relatively much worse against good defensive teams. Keenum was 2.5 yppp better than average overall this season but he was just 1.2 yppp better than average against the 6 average or better pass defenses that he faced, averaging 7.1 yppp against UCLA, Louisiana Tech, East Carolina, SMU, Tulsa, and Southern Miss, who would combine to allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback. Penn State will easily be the best pass defense that Keenum has faced and he managed just 4.9 yppp against the best pass defense he faced in the regular season (Southern Miss in the CUSA Championship game). Keenum has 284 pass plays against average or better pass defenses, which is a big sample, so it’s pretty strong evidence that his relative numbers against a good Penn State defense will be considerably worse than his overall pass rating. Using Keenum’s stats against all teams against Penn State’s defense would project 6.35 yppp for Houston in this game. However, using Keenum’s stats against the 6 decent pass defenses that Houston faced would result in a prediction of 5.32 yppp for Keenum in this game.

It’s also a good idea to see how Penn State’s defense performed against good passing teams and the Nittany Lions were relatively better defending the pass against good quarterbacks than they were overall. Penn State faced 3 very good passing teams this season in Alabama, Northwestern (with Persa) and Wisconsin. The quarterbacks of those teams would combine to average 8.4 yppp against an average defense but Penn State allowed just 5.4 yppp to those good quarterbacks, giving up 5.3 yppp to Alabama, 5.4 yppp to Northwestern, and 5.6 yppp to Wisconsin’s Russell Wilson, who actually has a pass rating that is 0.5 yppp higher than Keenum’s pass rating. The Nittany Lions were 2.0 yppp better than average defending the pass this season (4.5 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 6.5 yppp), but they were 3.0 yppp better than average against those very good quarterbacks. A regression equation of the rating of the opposing quarterbacks of all their games (adjusted for site) and what Penn State allowed per pass play to each quarterback would yield a prediction of 5.36 yppp allowed to a quarterback with Keenum’s rating. That number is extremely close to the 5.32 yppp that was projected for Keenum using his games against average or better defensive teams. So, there is certainly some strong evidence to suggest that the prediction for Houston’s pass offense in this game should be 5.34 yppp instead of the 6.35 yppp that the math would predict using all games for Houston. I’ll get back to that point later, but let’s take a look at Penn State’s offense and Houston’s defense first.

Penn State’s offense struggled this season (5.1 yppl and just 17.8 points per game against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl and 22.4 points to an average attack) but that unit was certainly better when Matt McGloin was at quarterback rather than Rob Bolden. McGloin averaged a decent 6.4 yppp against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback and he threw just 5 interceptions on 239 pass plays. Bolden, meanwhile averaged a pathetic 4.4 yppp against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp and he threw 4 interceptions on just 115 pass plays. Penn State’s offense took a hit when McGloin suffered a concussion while fighting with a teammate and he was not cleared to play in this game, which means that Bolden will get the start. Penn State’s offense is 0.7 yards per play worse than average with Bolden at quarterback but there is hope that the extra practices in the last month have helped him regain his confidence (he was actually about average as a quarterback last season).

Houston’s defense didn’t get a lot of acclaim this season due to their prolific offensive numbers but the Cougars were solid defensively, allowing 5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team, and that unit got much better against the pass when Kent Brooks was inserted into the free safety spot in week 6. Brooks didn’t knock down many balls (just 2 passes defended) but he didn’t allow receivers to get behind him much and Houston allowed just 4.9 yppp in 8 games with Brooks in the starting lineup (to quarterbacks that would combine to average 5.7 yppp against an average team). My math model projects just 4.2 yppp for Bolden in this game (assuming he hasn’t improved during bowl practices) but Penn State is projected to run for 220 yards at 5.2 yards per rushing play.

Overall the math model favors Houston by 7 points with Bolden at quarterback for Penn State, with Brooks at free safety for Houston, and using all games for Keenum’s pass rating. However, as discussed above, there is pretty strong evidence to support the theory that Keenum won’t perform relatively as well against a good pass defense given that his rating was much lower against the 6 best pass defenses he faced while Penn State’s pass defense was relatively much better against better quarterbacks. By the way, I think it’s important to point out that the 45 points that Penn State allowed in their season ending loss at Wisconsin is very misleading given that the Lions allowed just 5.8 yards per play to a Badgers’ attack that would average 7.4 yppl at home against an average defensive team. That’s actually a better defensive rating for Penn State (1.6 yppl better than average) than their season rating of 1.2 yppl better than average and the Nittany Lions’ defense also held the only other great offense they faced (Alabama) to 5.0 yppl, which is 2.0 yppl better than the 7.0 yppl that Alabama would average on the road against an average team. If I plug in 5.34 yppp for Houston in this game (as discussed above) then I only get Houston by 2 points. That doesn’t even take into account that Houston’s run offense (5.8 yprp against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp) was only average against the 4 good run defenses that they faced (averaged 4.0 yprp against Louisiana Tech, SMU, Tulsa, and Southern Miss, who would allow 4.1 yprp to an average team). Those 4 teams were also the only overall better than average defensive teams that Houston faced and the Cougars were only 1.0 yppl better than average (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 4.9 yppl) against those better than average stop units (much lower than their +2.0 yppl average in all games) and Penn State is 0.6 yppl better defensively than those teams are collectively.

While my math model favors Houston by 7, which would indicate no line value, I actually think the Cougars should be favored by less than 7 points given their relative struggles against better defensive teams and Penn State’s relatively better play defensively against good offensive teams. My predicted total based on the math using all games for Houston is 56.5 points but I get 52.3 points after adjusting for their offensive performing worse than normal. In addition to the positive match up for Penn State, the Nittany Lions also apply to a decent 54-21-3 ATS bowl situation. I’ll consider Penn State a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more and I’ll lean with the under at 55 points or higher.

Strong Opinion
Nebraska (+3) 21 SOUTH CAROLINA 20
Capital One Bowl
02-Jan-2012 10:00AM Pacific
South Carolina has an elite defense but the Gamecocks are below average on offense and on special teams and I’ll side with a well-balanced Nebraska team in this game. South Carolina’s defense is one of the best units in the nation, allowing just 4.2 yards per play against Division 1A opponents that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team. If you take out the game against Navy (because how teams defend the option has very little to do with how good they are defensively against other teams) the Gamecocks are 1.7 yppl better than average, which ranks 4th best in the nation. Nebraska’s offense is only 0.4 yppl better than average (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) so they’re at a pretty big 1.3 yppl disadvantage in this game. The Cornhuskers average 4.3 yppl and 20.5 points against the two other elite defensive teams that they faced this season (Michigan State and Penn State) and my math model projects 293 yards at 4.3 yppl for Nebraska in this game.

Nebraska’s defense isn’t nearly as good as it’s been in recent years, but the Huskers are still 0.6 yppl better than average defensively (5.4 yppl against teams that would average 6.0 yppl against an average team) and they have a 0.9 yppl advantage over a sub-par South Carolina attack that is just average running the ball since losing star RB Marcus Lattimore and 0.4 yards per pass play worse than average since Connor Shaw became the starting quarterback after Stephen Garcia was dismissed. Shaw’s numbers are skewed by the fact that he racked up big numbers against a bad Kentucky pass defense and against a mediocre Clemson pass defense, combining for 7.7 yards per pass play in those two games while struggling greatly against the better than average pass defenses of Mississippi State, Arkansas, and Florida (just 4.3 yppp in those 3 games). Nebraska’s pass defense is only 0.1 yppp worse than the average rating of those 3 teams and I expect Shaw to struggle throwing the ball in this game while the rushing attack is slowed by a solid Nebraska run defense (4.7 yprp against teams that would combine to average 5.2 yprp). That run defense really tightened up over the second half of the season, as the Huskers allowed just 4.2 yprp (to teams that would average 5.0 yprp) in their 6 games after their week 7 bye, which coincided with the new lineup following a season ending injury to Jared Crick, whose level of play was way down before he got hurt (which may be why the defense got better without him). South Carolina only faced two teams with Shaw at quarterback that are better than average defending the run and the pass and the Gamecocks scored just 14 points each against Mississippi State and against Florida, who combine to rate the same as Nebraska’s defense. My math model projects 321 yards at 4.6 yppl for South Carolina in this game but the numbers would be worse if Shaw continues to play relatively worse against better defensive teams.

South Carolina has a bit of an edge from the line of scrimmage but Nebraska have very strong special teams while South Carolina is weak in that area. In a game in which both offenses should struggle I expect special teams to play a role and my math favors Nebraska by 3 points in this game based on the projected stats and special teams. My adjusted points model favors South Carolina by ½ a point in this game even and the difference is because Nebraska under-performed their stats by 2.3 points per game while South Carolina out-played their stats by 1.2 points per game thanks to their strong red zone defense. The fair line is somewhere in between and the value is certainly in favor of Nebraska in this game. My math also projects just 43.3 total points in this game and I think it may be lower than that. I’ll consider Nebraska a Strong Opinion +3 or more (a lean at less than +3) and I also lean Under 45 points or more.

Strong Opinion
FLORIDA (-2.0) 25 Ohio St. 17
Gator Bowl
02-Jan-2012 10:00AM Pacific
When you think of Florida and Ohio State playing in a January bowl game you don’t think of two 6-6 teams. But, that’s what we have here. Despite the identical records I think that Florida is clearly the better team.

Ohio State’s offense averaged just 5.2 yards per play this season (against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) and the attack only got slightly better when running quarterback Braxton Miller was inserted as the starter in week 7 after splitting time with Joe Bauserman the first half of the season. Miller is well below average in the passing game (4.9 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback) but he makes up for it with his great running ability (868 yards on 111 runs) and the Buckeyes are 0.8 yards per rushing play better than average with Miller in the game. Overall, Ohio State is just average offensively with Miller at quarterback and the Buckeyes are likely to struggle against a very good Florida defense that yielded just 4.5 yards per play this season and rates at 1.3 yppl better than average. The Gators are tough to run the ball against (3.9 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yprp against an average defense) and Miller isn’t likely to have success throwing against a good secondary that was 1.3 yards per pass play better than average (5.3 yards per pass play allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.6 yppp). Ohio State faced 3 very good defensive teams this season and the Buckeyes averaged just 12.7 points on 234 yards at 4.0 yards per play against Michigan State, Illinois, and Penn State, who would combine to allow 4.4 yppl to an average team – so the Buckeyes were 0.4 yppl worse than average against very good defensive teams (rather than average, as they are overall). Miller averaged a pathetic 2.0 yppp in those 3 games and his running, while still good (182 yards on 28 runs for 6.5 yprp) was much less than this overall average of 7.8 yprp). Miller is coming off his only good passing game of the season (he averaged 7.6 yppp against Michigan), but there is no evidence to suggest that good performance will carry over. In fact, Miller’s yppp average has been going up and down game by game since he became the full time quarterback (-1.0 yppp to 5.6 yppp to 0.8 yppp to 4.9 yppp to 3.3 yppp to 7.6 yppp). I’ll just assume that game was an aberration and he’ll play at his overall level in this game, which will not be good enough to do much damage against the Gators. My math model projects just 273 yards at 4.3 yppl for Ohio State in this game.

Florida’s offense was only 0.3 yppl better than average for the season (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team), but the Gators are much better than that with John Brantley at quarterback. Brantley missed part of the Alabama game and all of the Gators’ games against LSU and Auburn and the offense managed just 17 points total in 10 quarters. Backup quarterbacks Driskel and Brissett combined to average just 3.2 yards on 81 pass plays, which is horrible even after factoring in the good defenses they had to face (those teams would allow 5.6 yppp, weighted by how many passes were thrown against each team). Brantley, however, had very good passing numbers (7.1 yppp against teams that would allow 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback) and Florida also has a good rushing attack (5.1 yprp against teams that would allow 4.6 yprp). I rate Florida’s attack at 0.8 yppl better than average with Brantley at quarterback assuming that the absence of offensive coordinator Charlie Weis (he took the head coaching job at Kansas) won’t have a negative affect on the offense. Ohio State had a solid defense that yielded 5.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defense, but the Buckeyes’ stop unit is not as good as the Florida offense with Brantley and my math model projects 343 yards at 5.8 yppl for Florida in this game.

Overall the math favors the Gators by 8 points with a total of 43 ½ points and the reason Florida is underrated is because they don’t look as good when you use a points model without adjustments, which would result in a prediction of Florida by 1 point. However, Florida was -13 in turnover margin in 11 games against Division 1A opponents and most of that is just variance as my model gives Ohio State only a 0.34 edge in turnovers in this game. Not only do all the adjustments (Miller at quarterback for OSU and Brantley at QB for Florida) favor Florida by 1.6 points but the turnover variance is worth 3.7 points. My adjusted points model favors Florida by 6.2 points, which is not quite as much as the 8 points that the projected statistics favors the Gators by. I’ll consider Florida a Strong Opinion at -3 or less (a lean at more than -3) and I have no opinion on the total.

Strong Opinion
Michigan St. 19 at GEORGIA 22 UNDER 49.5
Outback Bowl
02-Jan-2012 10:00AM Pacific
The side on this game is not that easy to pick, as my math likes Michigan State and the situation favors Georgia. However, the under looks like a good play. Michigan State is is only 0.4 yards per play better than average offensively with starting quarterback Kirk Cousins in the game, as his very good passing numbers (7.5 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average team) are dragged down by a sub-par rushing attack that has averaged just 4.5 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.9 yprp to an average team. Georgia’s defense, meanwhile, allowed just 4.6 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team and the Bulldogs were even better in the final 6 games when starting LB Alec Ogletree returned from an injury he suffered in the opening game. Georgia’s defense was 1.4 yards per play better than average in the 6 games with their current lineup (4.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team) after excluding the garbage yardage that New Mexico State picked up late against the Bulldogs’ backups (154 yards on 16 plays, but just 248 yards on 51 plays against the starters). The 42 points they gave up to LSU in the SEC Championship game was very misleading considering that LSU only gained 238 yards at 5.1 yppl, which is 1.5 yppl less than LSU would average against an average defensive team. My math model projects just 276 yards at 4.5 yppl for Michigan State in this game.

Georgia will also have trouble moving the ball, a the Bulldogs’ offense is also just 0.4 yppl better than average (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) while Michigan State’s defense rates at 1.6 yppl better than average. The Spartans yielded just 4.4 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl and the defensive numbers are better if you take out the 7.1 yppl that Wisconsin gained in their regular season meeting when the Spartans were without star DT William Gholston, who was suspended for that game. Rather than take out all the stats from that game, I decided to just take out the rushing stats since stopping the run is where Gholston really shines and the 6.1 yards per rushing play that Wisconsin got in that game was certainly an outlier that probably had everything to do with Gholston not playing (they only allowed 4.7 yprp to Wisconsin in the second meeting with Gholston playing). My math model projects just 299 total yards at 4.3 yppl for Georgia in this game, which isn’t likely to generate a lot of points.

My math model gives Georgia an edge in total yards while Michigan State has an edge in yards per play (Georgia is expected to run more plays), projected turnovers and special teams. Overall the math favors Michigan State by 3 ½ points with a total of 40 points. My adjusted points model favors Michigan State by 2 points with a total of 45 ½ points and I just don’t see how these teams are going to combine for 50 points. The reason that the points model predicted total points is higher than the 40 points predicted based on the projected stats is because Georgia had 8 non-offensive touchdowns scored against them this season, which is unusually high. You’d get 43 points if you take out 4 of the 8 non-offensive touchdowns that Georgia had scored against them and the total is too high even you don’t adjust for the variance of so many non-offense touchdowns. I’ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 48 points or higher (a lean Under at less than 48 points).

As far as the side is concerned I’m going to pass. My math favors Michigan State by 3 ½ points (2 on the points model) but the Spartans apply to a very negative 29-74 ATS bowl situation that has worked well against this year so far. I have no opinion on the side at a line of 3 points but I’d lean with Michigan State at +3 ½ or more.

Opinion
Wisconsin (+5) 36 OREGON 39
Rose Bowl
02-Jan-2012 2:00PM Pacific
This should be a very entertaining game, as both teams should be able to have success moving the ball and scoring points. Wisconsin’s power rushing attack (248 yards at 6.0 yards per rushing play) combined with the efficient passing of Russell Wilson (8.7 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback) makes the mistake free Badgers (just 0.6 offensive turnovers per game) very tough to stop. Oregon’s defense is certainly very good, as the Ducks have yielded just 5.1 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average team and that unit did a good job of defending similarly well balanced and potent Stanford attack (allowed 5.3 yppl to a Stanford offense that would average 6.7 yppl at home against an average team). Oregon actually faced 5 very good offensive teams this season (LSU, Arizona, Washington, Stanford and USC) and the Ducks were 1.4 yppl better than average defensive against those teams (only USC had a good game against them), so they played relatively better against better offensive teams. My math model projects 462 yards at 6.2 yppl for the Badgers in this game.

Oregon has an even better offense than Wisconsin does, as the Ducks averaged over 500 total yards per game at 6.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. Wisconsin is not great defensively, as they allowed 5.0 yppl while the first team defense rates at 0.4 yppl better than average. Oregon can beat you by running the ball with their 3 explosive running backs (they averaged 6.7 yards per rushing play) and quarterback Darron Thomas is an efficient passer (he averaged 7.2 yppp against teams that would allow 5.6 yppp to an average QB). My math model 458 yards at 6.6 yppl for the Ducks in this game.

The total yards are about even with Oregon expected to average more yards per play and Wisconsin expected to run more plays, but the Ducks have far superior special teams and my math model favors Oregon by 4 ½ points. However, that model is based on the projected statistics and doesn’t take into account the fact that Wisconsin is more efficient with their yards than most teams because they don’t often get kept out of the endzone when they are in the red zone. Wisconsin scores a touchdown on an incredible 87% of their trips inside the opponents’ 20 yard line and they out-played their statistics because of it. Wisconsin also proved that they can score points against good defensive teams, as the Badgers averaged 35 points in 5 games against Michigan State, Ohio State, Illinois, and Penn State. Oregon also was able to score 34 points or more in every game except in their opening loss to LSU, whose defense is #2 in the nation and far better than Wisconsin’s defense. My adjusted points model only favors Oregon by 2 ½ points and I think that model is more accurate in this case. That projected statistics call for 69 ½ total points but the points model predicts 74 points, which I also think is more accurate since both teams average at least 5 more total points per game than the stats would predict. I’ll lean with Wisconsin at +4 or more and I’ll lean over 72 points or less.

[Mr. IWS]

Ness Legend

Analysis: My Triple-Dime LEGEND Play is on Wisconsin at 5:00 ET.
Wisconsin is back in the Rose Bowl for a second straight year (lost 19-17 to TCU last year but did cover) while Oregon returns to Pasadena for the fifth time. Oregon lost to Ohio St following the 2009 season and has not won here since the THIRD edition of this game, which was played on January 1, 1917 (1916 season, when the Ducks beat Penn, 14-0). Chip Kelly is in his third season at Oregon and his teams are known for their explosiveness and that so-called “blur attack!” However, there is a major 'hole' in his resume. He's 0-2 in bowl games (lost as mentioned to Ohio St in 2009 and then to Auburn in last year's BCS title game). I noted the following when taking LSU against this Oregon team way back in the 2011 season-opener for both schools (September 3 in Cowboys Stadium). Kelly's offense has been held in check when opponents have had "time to prepare," meaning in season-openers and bowl games. Let's look back at Oregon's 2009 season opener vs Boise St and its 2011 opener vs LSU (I’m sure we can all agree that Oregon’s 2010 opener vs New Mexico doesn't count) plus the team's previous two bowl games. The Ducks were held to eight points, six FDs and just 152 yards by Boise St in the 2009 opener and then vs Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, Oregon managed a modest 17 points, 12 FDs and 260 yards in losing to the Buckeyes. In last year’s BCS title game showdown against Auburn, Oregon gained 449 yards with 23 FDs but the Ducks scored just two TDs while totaling only 19 points. This from a team which entered the game averaging 49.3 PPG and 537.5 YPG! Now to this year's opener vs LSU. Oregon lost 40-27, getting held to 335 total yards, including 95 rushing yards on 28 carries (3.4 YPC). Oregon would go on from there to win 11 of their remaining 12 games TY, averaging 47.8 PPG on 530.3 YPG, including 312.4 YPG on the ground (6.7 YPC). Note that in the previous four games (when top-notch opponents have had "time to prepare," the Ducks have been manhandled at the line of scrimmage, getting out-rushed 746-to-380 yards, going 0-4 SU and ATS! I won't waste any more time talking about Oregon's "blur attack." However, I will talk some about Wisconsin. Of all the schools who could look back at the 2011 season and say "what if?," Wisconsin tops the list. The Badgers lost two games, on back-to-back Saturdays in East Lansing and then Columbus, both in absolutely heart-breaking fashion (you all know the gory details). I'll argue that this is the best Wisconsin team of my generation with easily the school's best QB in recent memory, in Russell Wilson. The NC State transfer has completed 72.5% for 2,879 yards with 31 TDs and just THREE interceptions. He's rushed for a modest 320 yards (5 TDs) but his 'escapeability' in the pocket is something I've never seen from a Wisconsin QB. Then there is RB Montee Ball, who lost 30 pounds over the summer, and proceeded to rush for 1,759 yards (6.4 YPC) with 32 TDs. For good measure, he caught 20 passes for six more TDs plus completed his only two passes of the year (for 57 yards) while adding a TD pass to his resume. Oregon head coach Chip Kelly has downplayed his previous two bowl failures. "We don't look to what transpired in the past to be motivation of where we go in the future," he said. "I think every year each team is different, and there are a lot of players that played on our '09 team against a good Ohio State team that aren't here any longer. We lost 23 or 24 seniors from last year's team that played in the national championship, so I think every year's different." As for Wisconsin's Bret Bielema, he likes the way his team has rebounded. "We pla„yed the Rose Bowl a year ago, but the 2011 season is its own journey within itself," said coach Bielema, echoing Kelly's sentiments. "For us to lose the two games that we did and to battle back over the last four weeks of the season and to win the way we did against Michigan State is a journey in itself." As for me, I can't ignore Oregon's two bowl games or its two season openers vs Boise St and LSU. I'm betting it's "deja vu all over again here" for the Ducks, plus I'm getting points! Take them.

Good luck...Larry

[Mr. IWS]

ROOT

Mil Nebraska
Bill Oregon
500 Georgia
Florida Fav of the year
Stanford GOTY

[Mr. IWS]

Big AL

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks plus the points over Oklahoma City. This is a revenge game for Dallas, which lost to the Thunder last week when OKC hit a 3-pointer at the buzzer to win by two points, 104-102. But one of the things I like to do is play on revenging teams early in the season, as they're a solid 104-61 ATS. Admittedly, the Thunder are the class of the weakest Western Conference in memory, but this is a bad situation for them tonight. Also, Dallas is a super 28-11 ATS as underdogs since February 2010 when Dirk Nowitzki has been in the lineup, including a perfect 5-0 ATS vs. .750 (or better) opponents. Take the Mavericks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Fresno State Bulldogs over Boise State. The Broncos are 10-4 this season, but unfortunately are 10-0 at home, and 0-4 on the road. This game will be played in Fresno, so that's one reason to fade Boise State. Another is that these two teams met earlier this season in Boise, and the Broncos came away with a 70-63 victory. However, I have a revenge system that's 164-110 ATS which plays on certain teams with revenge, provided their opponent is not off back to back losses. Finally, Boise has failed to cover five straight games, while Fresno is 6-1 ATS its last seven. Take the Bulldogs.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers + the points over Oregon. A lot has been made of the fact that Oregon hasn't fared well when it's played talented teams that have had time to prepare for its fast-paced, spread offense. I am not necessarily swayed by that line of thinking, as I am about the personnel on Wisconsin's stop unit. For me, this match-up is all about defense, as Wisky falls into a 93-46 ATS Bowl system of mine which plays on certain teams with strong defenses (Wisconsin gives up just 17 ppg). Also, dating back to 1997, College Football teams are a powerful 73.9% ATS in Bowl games as underdogs priced from +4 to +10 points, if they give up less than 20.5 ppg. Wisconsin was favored in every game this season, but was 3-0 ATS last year as an underdog, including a pointspread win in this Rose Bowl vs. TCU. And, since 1999, the Badgers are a super 21-9 ATS as away underdogs of +11 points or less, including 9-3 ATS with rest. Take the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.