1-6-12

[Mr. IWS]

DCI NHL

Season: 187-135 (.581)

NEW JERSEY 3, Florida 2
PITTSBURGH 3, N.Y. Rangers 2
Buffalo vs. CAROLINA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
CHICAGO 4, Colorado 2
N.Y. Islanders vs. ANAHEIM: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

[Mr. IWS]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Indiana (-8) Thursday.

Friday it’s Arkansas. The deficit is 115 sirignanos.

[Mr. IWS]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Friday

Colorado Avalanche +180

[Mr. IWS]

Football Crusher

Kansas State + Arkansas OVER 62

[Mr. IWS]

Hockey Crusher

Florida Panthers + New Jersey Devils OVER 5

[Mr. IWS]

Basketball Crusher

Denver Nuggets -4 over New Orleans

[Mr. IWS]

Sportbook Investing
Play of the Day:

Kansas State + Arkansas OVER 62

[Mr. IWS]

CAPPERS ACCESS

Kansas st (CFB)
Butler

[Mr. IWS]

JOE WIZ DAILY FREE PICK

Cleveland +8 over Minnesota

[Mr. IWS]

*** WINNING POINTS ***

•COTTON BOWL
ARKANSAS OVER KANSAS STATE BY 15
---------------------------------
Kansas State’s season was certainly unique. The Wildcats do not have a RB or WR that has the eye of NFL scouts, so the offense was just about all on the shoulders of QB Collin Klein, who will also not be playing on Sunday’s. But Klein was a fierce competitor, throwing for 1,745 and 12 TD’s, while also running for 1,099 and a remarkable 26 TD’s. There were only seven offensive TD’s all season that did not come from his arm or his legs. And ultimately not all that much offense - #96 despite playing in a Big 12 that brought high play counts and unimposing defenses. But by taking good care of the ball the Wildcats managed a +13 in TO’s, and that got them to 10-2 despite being out-gained by 664 yards, with eight of the wins coming by seven points or less (and the others being vs. weak Kent State and Kansas). But are they ready to face this class of opponent in a showdown affair? Not with those paper clips and rubber bands. Arkansas brings big-time talent on both sides of the ball, and while the overall offensive numbers are good, and not great, keep in mind what happens when you play the kind of defenses the Razorbacks saw in the S.E.C. this autumn. When they did face a Big 12 opponent, it was 42 points and 581 yards vs. Texas A&M on this very field. Tyler Wilson and the Arkansas skill corps can make plays to set a tempo here that Klein will have to play way over his head to match.

PROJECTED OUTCOME: ARKANSAS 38, KANSAS STATE 23
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•NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL

*Detroit over Valparaiso by 7
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Detroit has triple-revenge! For 10-, 8- and 8-point defeats last season. Are they happy that Valpo guard Brandon Wood transferred to Michigan State last season after he buried them repeatedly with 3-pointers in those games? Probably.

DETROIT, 69-62
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*Wright State over Butler by 1
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Wright State entered the week on a four-game winning streak, two of them in Horizon League road games against the dregs of the conference, Illinois-Chicago and Loyola- Chicago. But Butler is shooting bricks from 3-point range (28.9%) and the free-throw line (61.5%).

WRIGHT STATE, 49-48
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•NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION

*3-STAR BEST BET Charlotte over Atlanta by 9
---------------------------------------------
Brutal schedule spot for Atlanta. Not only are the Hawks playing for the sixth time in eight days, but they just hosted Miami and have a huge game on tap Saturday against Chicago. The Hawks have talent, but are still young with maturity issues. It’s easy to overlook the Bobcats, which the Hawks will do.

CHARLOTTE 100-91
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*Philadelphia over Detroit by 10
---------------------------------
Detroit has failed to cover in 9 of their last 11 road games.

PHILADELPHIA 98-88
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*3-STAR BEST BET Toronto over New Jersey by 15
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Already new coach Dwane Casey has the Raptors playing with more focus and defensive intensity. Jose Calderon is steady at point guard and. DeMar DeRozan is a rising star. The Nets are minus center Brook Lopez and playing on the road for the fifth time in their last six games.

TORONTO 107-92
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*Washington over New York by 1
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Not only do the Wizards have a big edge at point guard with John Wall, but New York began this month 1-5 ATS in their last six games.

WASHINGTON 101-100
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*Boston over Indiana by 6
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A slow start makes this a priority game for Boston in this shortened season. The Celtics have missed Paul Pierce during the early going. Indiana lacks Boston’s multiple scoring options.

BOSTON 98-92
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*Chicago over Orlando by 7
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Jason Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu aren’t consistent enough to give Orlando enough of an outside threat to keep the Bulls’ tight defense from packing it in against Dwight Howard. Orlando opened 2012 having gone under the total in its first four games.

CHICAGO 92-85
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*Oklahoma City over Houston by 11
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Samuel Dalembert is working his way into shape for Houston, which helps the Rockets in the pivot. But the Rockets are learning on the go under new coach Kevin McHale.

OKLAHOMA CITY 106-95
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*3-STAR BEST BET Minnesota over Cleveland by 15
------------------------------------------------
When it’s bad on bad like this our first option usually is the ‘dog. This is an exception. Minnesota finally has a good coach in Rick Adelman. The Timberwolves have far more talent upfront than Cleveland with Kevin Love and Michael Beasley. They also have a deeper point guard rotation with Luke Ridnour, J.J. Barea and Ricky Rubio. They can push tempo on the Cavaliers, who are playing for the third time in four nights. Rookie Kyrie Irving remains a work in progress.

MINNESOTA 111-96
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*New Orleans over Denver by 1
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The Hornets are 10-3 ATS during their past 13 Friday games. Much is being made of the Hornets losing Chris Paul, but they still have a rugged front line with Emeka Okafor and Chris Kaman. Eric Gordon is a rising star. Denver has a bigger game on deck Saturday against San Antonio.

NEW ORLEANS 99-98
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*Memphis over Utah by 5
------------------------
The Jazz have been a serious money-burner at Salt Lake City going 9-22 ATS in their past 31 home contests through December.

MEMPHIS 97-92
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*Phoenix over Portland by 1
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Phoenix’s offense is struggling, but Portland just played the Lakers last night. Back-tobacks aren’t good for ancient Marcus Camby.

PHOENIX 95-94
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*Los Angeles Lakers over Golden State by 9
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Can’t recommend laying many points with the Lakers in the 2nd of consecutive games. The Lakers have a thin bench and their offense lacks scoring options with new coach Mike Brown putting a strong emphasis on defense.

LA LAKERS 110-101

[Mr. IWS]

*** PLATINUM SHEETS STATFOX

•COTTON BOWL
KANSAS STATE VS. ARKANSAS
--------------------------
This might as well be considered a BCS game as No. 6 Arkansas takes on the surprise team in the nation, No. 8 Kansas State. Both of these offenses are extremely efficient, they just get the job done in different ways. The Razorbacks are 13th in passing offense as QB Tyler Wilson averages 285 pass YPG with 22 TD and 6 INT. The Wildcats use the legs of QB Collin Klein, who has 1,099 rushing yards and an insane 26 TD runs. He’s also thrown for 1,745 yards, 12 TD and 5 INT. Arkansas is 3-7-1 all-time in the Cotton Bowl and KSU has dropped three straight bowl games, with its last victory coming in 2002.

STATFOX FORECASTER: ARKANSAS 42, KANSAS STATE 26
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•NBA
PORTLAND @ PHOENIX
-------------------
This is an extremely tough back-end of consecutive games for a Blazers team that hosts the Lakers before flying south to Phoenix for another game the next night. The Suns have a day off before this matchup and will be plenty rested to try to continue their recent home dominance over the Blazers (16-4 SU, 12-6-2 ATS). The Suns started the season ice-cold, hitting just 41% FG and 26% three-pointers in their first four games this season. But Portland’s propensity to turn the ball over (15.7 TO per game), should lead to more easy baskets for the Suns.

PLAY ON: PHOENIX +2.5

[Mr. IWS]

*** POINTWISE ***

•COTTON BOWL
KANSAS STATE VS. ARKANSAS
--------------------------
The Razorbacks of Arkansas vs the Wildcats of Kansas State. Ring a bell? Didn't think so, as this is their first meeting since 1967, 2nd since 1930, 3rd since 1918, & 4th since 1915. And that's it. Well not quite, as that '67 Arkie squad posted the only losing record (4-5-1) in Frank Broyles' final 19 years at the helm. This year, both teams rank in the Top10, with the Hogs at #6, & the 'Cats at #10. For the Arkies, their main concern this season, was replacing their AA QB Mallett, who had thrown for 7,500 yds & 62 TDs in '09 & '10, while ranking 7th in passing efficiency both years. But they've certainly found their man in Wilson, who leads the SEC with 3,422 yds, 63%, & 22/6. Wright & Adams are game-breakers at receiver, with Adams the leading punt returner in the nation (16.2 yp return, 3 TDs).

Check averaging 37.8 ppg in 32 of their last 34 games, as only #1 LSU & #2 Alabama have kept that Hog "O" under control. Hence just 2 losses, with both by an identical 24 pts to those giants. Note that the host has covered the Arkies' last 7 games. And with this being the Hogs' 12th CottonBowl, have to give 'em the home edge. The Wildcats didn't figure to do much this year, despite '10's mild turnaround (7-6, with 2-pt bowl loss), & 15 returning starters. But they have been pure "money" covering 9-of-11, with 1 of their 2 misses by 4 pts, & upsetting Miami, Baylor, Missouri, TexTech, TexA&M, & Texas, losing only to OklaSt (7 pts) & Oklahoma. In QB Klein, they have a legitimate dual threat, who has thrown 251 passes (1,745 yds, 58%, 12/5), while rushing 293 times (1,099 yds, 26 TDs). Bucking lethal Arky overhead attack is frightening, but KSt just continues to find the answers.

PROPHECY: KANSAS STATE 41 - Arkansas 38 RATING: *6-STAR
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•NBA BASKETBALL
----------------
Atlanta Hawks 103 - CHARLOTEE BABCATS 99
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS 94 - Detroit Pistons 90
TORONTO RAPTORS 113 - New Jersey Nets 103
New York Knicks 98 - WASHINGTON WIZARDS 83
BOSTON CELTICS 103 - Indiana Pacers 102
Chicago Bulls 99 - ORLANDO MAGIC 98 (ESPN)
OKLA CITY THUNDER 110 - Houston Rockets 108
MINNESOTA T'WOLVES 96 - Cleveland Cavs 89
Denver Nuggets 113 - NEW ORLEANS 110
UTAH JAZZ 107 - Memphis Grizzlies 95
Portland Trailblazers 109 - PHOENIX 104
LA LAKERS 100 - Golden State Warriors 95

BEST BETS: INDIANA (3), DENVER, PORTLAND (4)

[Mr. IWS]

*** MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK ***

•ARKANSAS OVER KANSAS STATE by 10
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We’ll admit we’re mystified by the enigma known as Kansas State. Nearly every week this season, we watched the No. 8 Wildcats get chased up and down the field the entire game – only to emerge with the SU win AND pointspread cover. In fact, we don’t even think Bill Snyder himself could explain to us how his team went just 3-9 ‘In The Stats’ (0-7 ITS versus fellow bowlers this season) but finished 10-2 SU and 9-2 ATS! On paper, that would make K-State the phoniest 10-win team in the land, especially with the ‘Cats allowing 55 YPG more than they gained his campaign. Thus, it comes as no surprise to learn the only common opponent faced by Arkansas and KSU this season (Texas A&M) found the ‘Cats on the short end of a 193 net yardage deficit. And when we take a look at recent ATS history for both squads, we start to get sweaty palms and an increased heart rate just thinking about a wager on the Hogs. For starters, Big 12 bowlers off a win are just 3-17 ATS versus an opponent off a SU and ATS loss and Big 12 bowl dogs are a dead-on-the-slab 0-7 ATS when squaring off with the SEC. But as soon as we envision snapping the rubber band against these imposters, our database warns us that Arkansas owns a few embarrassing stats of its own. The Razorbacks have been led to the meat processing plant in recent bowl appearances, going 4-14 SU and ATS in the post-season since – including 0-9 ATS versus a foe off consecutive wins. And Boss Hog himself, Bobby Petrino, has brought home the ATS bacon just ONCE in six trips to the alleys. Even so, we’ll take note of Arky’s outstanding 8-2 ATS success against the Big 12 and offer up a lean to the No. 6 Pigs. Lay it if you play it.

[Mr. IWS]

*** POWER SWEEP ***

•COTTON BOWL
KANSAS STATE VS. ARKANSAS
--------------------------
The Cotton Bowl gets its 1st matchup of Top 10 tms S/‘94 featuring the 2 of the 3 highest rated tms who were left out of the BCS party. This is the 1st meeting between these programs S/’67 (KSU leads 3-1) and it will be played in front of a sellout crowd as both tms easily sold their allotments and the ticket demand for this gm is #2 of all the bowls trailing just the Nat’l Title gm. This is KSU’s 1st Cotton Bowl matchup S/‘00 and 3rd overall (1-1 SU/ATS) while it’s the Hogs 12th appearance (3-7-1/1-3 ATS) and 1st S/‘07. Snyder is 6-6 SU/5-7 ATS in bowls while Petrino is 3-3 SU but 1-5 ATS. They had a common opp in A&M and both rallied from DD deficits to beat the Aggies, KSU (+6) 53-50 in 4OT while Ark (+2’) won 42-38 in this stadium. The Cats went 6-2 SU/ATS vs bowl caliber opp despite being outscored 34-31 and outgained 449-335 as their 6 wins were by a comb 26 pts while the 2 losses were by 48. UA was 5-2 SU/4-3 ATS vs bowl foes outscoring 33-29 and outgaining them 409-399. KSU was 4-1 SU/5-0 ATS on the road TY while Ark was 3-2 SU/1-4 ATS outside of their home state. KSU was fav’d over just 2 BCS opp’s TY going 7-1 ATS as a dog while UA was 6-3 as a fav.

B12 Cch of the Year Bill Snyder proved that age (72) ain’t nothing but a number as he took a team which was voted #8 in the preseason conf media poll and led them to their 1st 10 win season S/’03. His offense (#60) is led by tough as nails Collin Klein. A case could be made that no B12 QB (yes, even RG3) was more important to his tm’s offense as Klein either ran or passed for 38 of the Cats 45 off TD’s (84%) and his 26 rush TD’s is 1 short of an FBS QB record for a ssn. He was the #1 rusher but could be joined in the 1,000 yd club in the bowl by 5’7” mighty mite Hubert. The receiving is led by Oreg trans Harper. The OL (6’5” 304 avg) all’d KSU to rush for 194 ypg (4.1) but allowed a league worst 36 sks (13.8%). The Cats D (#35) had the B12’s most improved rush D as they allowed 231 (5.9) in ‘10 vs ‘11’s 132 (4.0). Clogging the middle is DT Kibble which frees up top sacker Williams. The LB corps added speed and talent in #1 tkl’r Arthur Brown. KSU was #53 pass eff D (267, 63%, 24-18) with CB Malone leading the conference in int with 7. The Cats #9 ST are always among the NCAA’s best. K Cantele hit 17-22 FG (L/54) while P Doerr had a 37.7 net. Lockett was leading the country in KR (35.2, 2 TD) when he was KO’d for the year (ACL). PR Thompson averaged 13.2. The coverage units allowed 8.1 on PR and 19.8 on KR.

Ark has consecutive 10 win seasons for just the 3rd time in school hist (‘64-65, ‘88-89) despite losing All-SEC RB Davis (foot) for the yr in the preseason. First yr st’r QB Wilson did a great job replacing Mallett, earning 1st Tm SEC honors while throwing for a school record 510 yds in this venue earlier TY vs A&M. The Hogs use 3 ply’rs at RB and are led by Johnson who is a stocky speedster who came back from a serious inj that sidelined him all of LY. The WR’s are loaded with depth, exp and spd as Wright and Adams are both atop the Ark all-time record charts while Hamilton (6’3”) gives the unit some size. TE Gragg came on strong at the end of the ssn incl 119 (14.9) vs MSU. The OL avg 6’4” 309 with 2 Sr st’rs but did have protection issues all’g 25 sks (5.7%) with QB Wilson taking several big shots. Overall Ark has our #10 off and our #33 D. The DL avg 6’3” 286 with 1 Sr st’r but did allow 174 rush ypg (4.5). All-SEC DE Bequette missed 3 gms (hamstring) and with the other starting DE Wright out (5 gms, broken arm) the D all’d 336 rush ypg (6.3) vs A&M/Aub with just 1 sk. With Bequette/Wright back, the Hogs got 16 of their 22 sks in the final 6 gms. All-SEC LB Franklin led Ark in tkls for a 4th consec ssn while Highsmith lived up to the pressn hype with 10.5 tfl. The secondary all’d 197 ypg (57%) with an 11-11 ratio to finish #40 in our pass D rankings and are led by S Thomas who led the Hogs in int’s and pd’s for a 2nd straight ssn. Ark’s #3 ST’s has been consistent all yr led by All-SEC P Breeding. K Hocker has been avg but the return gm is dynamic with AA PR Adams leading the country in avg with 3 PR TD’s while KR’s Johnson/Wade each have a TD.

The Wildcats have given us numerous wins this ssn pulling upsets as a 13 pt dog at Miami, a 3’ pt dog vs Baylor, 4 pt dog vs Missouri, 3’ pt dog at TT, 6 pt dog vs A&M and as an 8 pt dog at Texas. There’s no question that we’ll continue to back this unit despite the stats not showing it.

FORECAST: KANSAS ST (+) OVER ARKANSAS RATING: *1-STAR

[Mr. IWS]

Turner System

NBA: Cleveland @ Minnesota -- Over 197

NBA: NY Knicks @ Washington -- Over 198

NHL Pittsburgh -- -1.5

NHL: New Jersey -- -1.5