1-8-12

[Mr. IWS]

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[Mr. IWS]

PPP/JOE GAVAZZI

4% Arkansas St

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang


75 Dime Play

GIANTS -3


30 Dime Play

2-Team 7 Point Teaser: Steelers -1.5 / Under 40.5


Free Pick


Steelers/Broncos Under the posted total

[Mr. IWS]

LARRY NESS TOTAL GOY WILDCARD
triple-dime bet 107 PIT / 108 DEN Over 33.5 Bookmaker.com
Analysis: My Triple-Dime 10* Wild Card Total of the Year is on Pit/Den Over at 4:30 ET.
Sure Tebow is a joke. No one realizes that more than me and I've stated it from the beginning, grinning and bearing it while the "all he does is win crowd" had it's time in the sun. However, his last two games have been so pathetic (19-of-51 or 37.3% for 245 yards with one TD pass, four INTs and two fumbles), that the only thing keeping him in the starting lineup is (as I read in a recent column), "that he's a magical unicorn fairy who can turn entire oceans into mulled wine!" The Broncos will face the famed Pittsburgh defense which again comes in at the NFL's best, allowing an NFL-low 271.8 YPG and 14.2 PPG. The rushing D had some early problems (allowed 119.5 YPG and three rushing TDs through four games (team opened 2-2) but over the last 12 games, the Steelers "got back to business" vs the run, allowing 91.7 YPG and only four rushing TDs. The pass D has been superb all 16 games, allowing an NFL-low 171.9 YPG, only 54.5% completions (against 'real' QBs), just 15 TD passes (only Baltimore allowed fewer) and Pittsburgh's opposing QB rating of 71.7 ranks 4th-best. Just how will Tebow function against that? As for Pittsburgh's offense, Big Ben is hobbling with that high ankle sprain and the Pittsburgh running game has been sub-par all season, ranking a modest 14th in the league (118.9 YPG). Making matters worse, Rashard Mendenhall was lost for the rest of the year in the first quarter of last Sunday's game at Cleveland with a knee injury. That leaves third-year RB Isaac Redman and rookie John Clay as the only healthy ball carriers on the roster. This game HAS to be a 'dead under,' right? As Lee Corso loves to say, "not so fast, my friend" (for which he's paid millions). You gotta love the good old US of A! However, I'm on Lee's 'bandwagon' here. Regulars should surely remember me talking about Pittsburgh's propensity (despite its image as a tough-nosed defensive team) of playing higher than expected games in the postseason (especially in Heinz Field). Pittsburgh won't likely get a home playoff game this postseason (this game is in Denver) but let me go the record book and note the scores of all Pittsburgh's playoff games since Big Ben's rookie year of 2004. There have been 13 in all. What's most remarkable about Pittsburgh's 13-game playoff run from 2004 through 2011 (Sundaƒy's game pending), is not only that the team is an impressive 10-3 SU (including winning TWO of its three Super Bowl appearances) but that the average game score for this defensive 'giant' was 48.0 PPG. This total opened 35 1/2 and as I'm posting this game on Thursday night, it's dropped to 33 1/2 almost everywhere. Will it continue to fall? I hope so for all my late-betting clients but I will note that the Sunday weather forecast for Denver is calling for partly to mostly sunny skies and a temperature around 40 (that's great football weather for these two cold-weather teams!). Let me also note that the Denver defense, which made a great resurgence around the same time Tebow was inserted as the team's starting QB, has fallen on hard times as of late. The team allowed 32 points at Minnesota, held the QB-less Bears to 10 points, allowed 41 points to Brady and the Pats, 40 points at Buffalo and then in last Sunday's 'yawner,' seven points to former QB Orton and the Chiefs. The rush D has struggled in those five games, allowing 139.0 YPG and the pass D has been suspect all season (more so lately with Dawkins out / he's questionable here). The Broncos are allowing 62.4% completions with 24 TD passes against only nine INTs (534 attempts). Getting back to Tebow. I just don't think he can afford to play it safe in this one. I also don't think that the Denver 'brass' is thinking that way, either. The Broncos have "NOTHING to lose." The team was headed to another 4-12 season when Tebow took over at 1-4 and turned the season around by 'parting the Red Sea.' He's 'crashed and burned' the last two weeks but I believe we'll see whatever 'bag of tricks' he and the Broncos have, in this one. Playoff history is on my side in betting Pittsburgh over this low number, as not only has the team averaged 48.0 PPG the last 13 playoff games (since Big Ben's' rookie year of 2004) but only ONE of those 13 previous games (Pittsburgh's 21-10 Super Bowl win over Seattle at the end of the 2005 season) has gone under the opening total in this game (35 1/2 and dropping as fast as Tebow's 'Q-rating'). Go O-V-E-R!

Good luck...Larry

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer

Falcons
OVER Pitt/Broncos

Denver U

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns

10* Atlanta +3 “Wildcard Roast!

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al for Sunday

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos to go 'over' the total, as it falls into 36-22, 75-51 and 47-20 ATS Playoff Totals systems of mine. Additionally, it falls into a team trend that's cashed 16 straight times. Pittsburgh (deservedly) has a reputation of being a great defensive team. This year, the Steelers ranked #1 in defense, and allowed 272 ypg and 14.2 ppg. And it generally has had top-ranked defenses over the years. But since its "Steel Curtain" days of the mid-to-late 1970s, the Steelers have been a HUGE 'over' team in the Playoffs. Dating back to 1980, Pittsburgh has gone 'over' the total in 26 of 34 playoff games, including 16 STRAIGHT since January 11, 1998 when the line has been less than 47 points. Here, the line opened at 34.5 or 35 and has come all the way down to 33.5 at most books (as of this writing). Since 1980, 64% of Playoff games with totals less than 35 have gone 'over' the total, and we'll look for this one to go 'over' as well. Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Pittsburgh. One certainly has to hold one's nose to play on the Broncos, but one would go broke by playing NFL road favorites of -7.5 points or more. Since 1980, NFL Road Favorites are a miserable 154-197 ATS (-62.7 net games). Of course, there's nothing wrong with winning 56.1 percent of one's wagers, but we can improve our win percentage to just shy of 60% (176-120 ATS) by merely eliminating teams which have been non-competitive in their previous two games (those which failed to cover by more than 7 points in their previous two games). And this system has been red-hot of late, cashing 19 of 20 since December 2009, including the Seahawks +10 over the Saints in last year's Wild Card Round of the Playoffs. Also, more ammunition to back Denver: teams off back to back losses are 18-10 ATS in the Playoffs since 1980, and home dogs (or PK) in their first Playoff game are 16-5 ATS since 1980. Admittedly, it's an "ugly" play, but let's step in and back the Broncos on Sunday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the NC State Wolfpack minus the points over Maryland. This will be the Terrapins first true road game (after 13 home or neutral court games). And Maryland falls into negative 48-79 and 89-158 ATS systems of mine based on its schedule. Even worse for Maryland: NC State will be out for revenge from an ACC Tournament loss (75-67) to the Terrapins last March. Also, ACC Double Digit home favorites are 57-38 ATS off a double digit win when matched up against a conference foe off a win. Finally, with Maryland sporting a 6-17 ATS record off a straight up win, and with the Wolfpack 12-5 their last 17 as double-digit favorites, we'll lay the points with NC State on Sunday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over San Antonio. The Spurs are 6-2 on the season, and come into this game off impressive wins over Dallas and Denver -- two games in which the Spurs led wire-to-wire -- but this will be a tough game for San Antone. First, it's a road game, and even though the Spurs are 6-2 this season, they're 0-2 on the road, and have lost by an average of 12.5 ppg (to mediocre Minnesota and Houston teams). Second, Manu Ginobili is out with a broken left hand. And, even though the Spurs have yet to lose with him sidelined, they've had the benefit of three home games. Now, they have to face OKC, a team which is at least their equal (if not slightly better), and they have to do it without any rest. The Spurs have been dreadful as road underdogs of +6 or less points (or PK), as they've covered just 23 of 67 games. Take the Thunder. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Columbus Blue Jackets and Anaheim Ducks 'over' the total. Looking at the NHL standings, it doesn't take too long to figure out that the Jackets and Ducks are the two worst teams in the league. But it may not be quite so obvious that they are arguably the two worst defenses as well. Carolina has allowed more goals than either Columbus or Anaheim, but the Hurricanes have also played more games and have been in more close games with overtime finishes. The other stat which may not be apparent is how goal-friendly Anaheim's home ice at the Honda Center is this season. Opponents are scoring at a rate of 3.24 goals per game when visiting the Ducks this season, which is the third-highest in the NHL and you could certainly attribute that to Anaheim's poor defense. But when you look at how the Ducks have scored at home, you will see that they have also benefited. The Ducks are the worst team in the league scoring goals on the road at 1.89 per game (the only team under two goals per game in that regard), but when playing at home, that number surges to 2.71 goals per game, a difference of almost a full goal per game. The over is 12-4-1 in Anaheim's last 17 games at Honda Center. Take the Ducks and Blue Jackets 'over' the total. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

[Mr. IWS]

- THE ROOT TRUST -

Football NCAAF
Game Date/Time: January 8, 2012, 6:00 pm(PST) Matchup: Arkansas State Red Wolves @ Northern Illinois Huskies

Take: Arkansas State Red Wolves



Football NFL
Game Date/Time: January 8, 2012, 1:30 pm(PST) Matchup: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos

Take: Denver Broncos

Pinnacle PLAY---DENVER.....THE WILD CARD GAME OF THE YEAR

Football NFL
Game Date/Time: January 8, 2012, 10:00 am(PST) Matchup: Atlanta Falcons @ NY Giants Giants

Take: Atlanta Falcons