1-8-12

[Mr. IWS]

Steven Budin CEO

Sunday's Pick

The Baltimore crew has its 50 Dime play on the New York Giants as the home favorcte against the Atlanta Falcons. As this seleciton is releatsed at 9:00 PM Eastern on Saturday night, the Giants are a solid -3 point chalk everywhere I've checked in Vegas and offshore. I would buy insurance, howevtr, on Big Blue, taking the Giants down 1/2 point if your price is anywhere between New York -3 and -4 1/2.

[Mr. IWS]

Rich Sports


Sport: NFL Football
Game: Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants - Sunday January 8, 2012 1:00 pm
Pick: 4 units (Normal) ATS: New York Giants -3 (+100)


Sport: NFL Football
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos - Sunday January 8, 2012 4:30 pm
Pick: 4 units (Normal) ATS: Denver Broncos +9 (-120)

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo

COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTIONS
2.5 UNIT* #270 LSU (+1) over Alabama (8:30 p.m., Monday, Jan. 9)
1.5 UNIT* LSU at Alabama over 40 (8:30 p.m., Monday, Jan. 9)
1 UNIT* 267 Arkansas State (-1.5) over Northern Illinois (9 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 8)

NFL PLAYOFF SELECTIONS
4 UNIT* Atlanta at N.Y. Giants under 47.5 (1 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 8)
1.5 UNIT* #102 Houston (-3) over Cincinnati (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 7)
1 UNIT* Cincinnati at Houston under 38.5 (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 7)
1 UNIT* FIRST QUARTER: Cincinnati at Houston under 7.5 (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 7)
1.5 UNIT* #105 Atlanta (+3) over N.Y. Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 8)
1 UNIT* #107 Pittsburgh (-8) over Denver (4:30 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 8)
0.5 UNIT* Detroit at New Orleans under 59 (8 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 7)
0.5 UNIT* Pittsburgh at Denver over 34 (4:30 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 8)
0.5 UNIT* FIRST QUARTER: Take 'Under' 7.0 Pittsburgh at Denver (4:30 p.m.)
2 UNIT* TEASER: #105 Atlanta (+10) AND #107 Pittsburgh (-1)

[Mr. IWS]

DAVID CHAN


giants -3

SUPER SIDE SPECIAL
broncos +10 (-130)

[Mr. IWS]

Cappers Access

(NFL) Falcons
(NFL) Steelers
(CFB) Arkansas st
(CBB) USC

[Mr. IWS]

ASA

5* steelers under
5* ark st over

[Mr. IWS]

MTI

4.5-STAR Atlanta and NY GIANTS UNDER 47.5 -Both these teams are teams which can put points. However that tends to come against both teams. When the games are tight and facing above average defenses, they tend to get conservative. With cold and potentially bad weather here, that should be the case again. Look for this one to stay under.
Both of the teams put up major points last week in meaningful wins. However, turnovers were a factor in each case as the Giants were +2 in turnovers last week and the Falcons were plus +2 as well. This activates a trend on both teams, as in the playoffs, teams are 0-14OU (-80 ppg.) since 2003 in non-divisional games with a total between 35 and 47 when neither team is favored by more than nine, if they benefited from a turnover margin of +2 or better last week in week 17 while throwing for at least 100 yards (47>=total>=35 and p:TOM<=-2 and p:week=17 and 9.5>line>-9.5 and 20040110<=date and NDIV and p:PY>=100).
Tampa Bay committed four turnovers in that game and they were a big difference in Atlanta's 45-24 win. The Falcons are 0-11 OU (-13.3 ppg) since 2001 following an NFC win by between 10 and 30 points where they had at least a +2 turnover margin and threw for at least 100 yards (team=Falcons and season>=2001 and p:conference=po:conference and p:TOM<=-2 and 30>=p:margin>=10 and p:PY>=100).
Atlanta got all over Tampa in that game, leading 21-0 at the end of the first quarter and 42-0 by midway through the second. The Falcons are 0-8 OU (-8.4 ppg) this season in Sunday games following a game where they led at halftime (0=2011 and day=Sunday). Going farther back, the Falcons are 0-10 OU (-7.0 ppg) since November 20, 1998 following a game where they led by double digits after one quarter and had fewer than three sacks for the game (10<=p:M1 and p:sacks<3 and team=Falcons and 19981220<=date).
Atlanta absolutely pounded Tampa Bay on the ground in that game and should try to keep their running game going this week. Michael Turner ran for 172 yards and the Falcons picked up 251 yards on the ground as a team. The Falcons are 0-9 OU (-9.9 ppg) since November 2002 following an NFC South game where they rushed for at least 180 yards (p:DIV and 180<=p:RY and team=Falcons and 20021103<=date).
New York beat Dallas in a must win game last Sunday, 31-14. They were the disciplined team in that game committing just three penalties while Dallas had seven. The Giants are 0-14-1 OU (-10.1 ppg) in database history after a win where they committed three or fewer penalties, while their opponent committed between 6 and 10, if they did not intercept 3+ passes (p:penalties<=3 and p:W and team=Giants and 10>=po:penalties>=6 and po:INT<3).

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: 37 points



4-STAR NY GIANTS -3 over Atlanta - New York is notorious for playing up (or down) to the level of their competition. While that almost caused them to miss the playoffs, now that they are here it spells success. The Falcons haven't been tested outdoors, playing outside just once since week 4 - in warm weather Carolina - and are just 1-3 ATS outdoors this year. This one is going to be cold with weather possible and that's a huge advantage for New York.
Atlanta is the wild card here although at 10-6, they actually finished a game ahead of Giants. The Falcons are 0-11 ATS (-11.4 ppg) as a dog when facing a team with fewer wins than them, if they are off a win where they did not score 23+ points more than expected (team=Falcons and D and wins>o:wins and p:W and p:DPS<23 and 20041024<=date).
Last week, Atlanta defeated Tampa Bay in a shootout, 45-24. With a total of 46 and a big line, they scored 15.8 points more than expected. The Falcons are 0-17-1 ATS (-8.8 ppg) in database history (since 1989) after a game where they total was at least 44.5 and they scored at least 6.5 points more than expected (team=Falcons and p:week>1 and 6.5<=p:DPS and 44.5<=p:total).
Tampa Bay didn't really start moving the ball until late in that game and finished with 294 total yards. The Falcons are 0-15 ATS (-10.0 ppg) since 1999 with a total of no more than 47, when they scored at least 28 points on turf last game while allowing between 207 and 360 yards (team=Falcons and season>=1999 and 28<=p:points and p:surface=artificial and 360>=po:TY>=207 and total<=47).
The Falcons controlled the ball for just over 30 minutes in that game. Ball control has been their thing all year, averaging 32:18 time of possession. The Giants are 15-0 ATS (11.0 ppg) since September 19, 2004 when not a 4+ point dog, when facing a team averaging at least 32:12 time of possession, if they did not win by 35+ last week (team=Giants and 20040919<=date and line<4 and oA(TOP)>=1932 and p:margin<35).
The bad weather is just one factor with Atlanta not playing well at times late in the season. The Falcons 0-16-1 ATS (-11.3 ppg) since December 21, 1992 as a dog or pick in December or January following a win where they scored at least 13 points (team=Falcons and month in [12,1] and p:W and line>=0 and p:points>13 and 19921221<=date).
New York faced a must win week 17 and did so in convincing fashion against Dallas, 31-14 as a three-point favorite. Teams are 12-0 ATS (9.5 ppg) since January 20, 2008 after a game against the Cowboys where they covered by at least nine points and allowed more than a TD (po:team=Cowboys and 20080120<=date and p:ats margin>=9 and po:points>7).
A big key to that game was New York playing a turnover free contest. The Giants are 11-0 ATS (12.1 ppg) since January 2007 when not 8+ point favorites after a win where they did not turn the ball over (team=Giants and p:turnovers=0 and p:W and date>=20070101 and line>-8). SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: NEW YORK by 11

[Mr. IWS]

R.A.W. FOOTBALL - Sunday

3* = N.Y. GIANTS
3* = "OVER" on Ark. St./ No. Ill.
2* = DENVER

[Mr. IWS]

Marc lawrence

3 atlanta

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas runner

3* NFL Wild-Card Total Of The Week* Pittsburgh Steelers-Denver Broncos under 34

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Benton
Sunday's Action
20 Dime winner going out on the New York Giants as the favarite this afternoon againnst the Atlanta Falcons. At the time I release this winner, the Giants are listid as the 3-point favorite both here in Vegas and offshore.





10 Dime bonus winner going out on the late game on the home underdog Denver Broncos as they host the Pittsburgh Steelers. At the time I release this winner, the Broncos are a 9-point underdog both here in Vegas and offshore.

[Mr. IWS]

Dom Chambers
Today's winners ...

My 100 Dime play is on the road favorite Pittsburgh Steelers to cover against the Denver Broncos in an AFC Wildcard game. Checkang the sports books in Las Vnegas, the Steelers are laying 8 ½ points. There were some 9s out there, so make sure you shop around for the best numbir.

[Mr. IWS]

Mike Hook 3*N.Illinois+1.5

[Mr. IWS]

Freddy Wills

NFL | January 8th, 2012 - 1:01*PM

5.5* NFL POD - Giants vs. Falcons - 1pm Guaranteed!

Falcons +3.5 -115 buy 1/2 - 5.5* NFL POD

Probably the best match up of the weekend or at least the most even with two QB's separated by 0.6 points in QB rating as Matt Ryan has 92.3 to Manning's 92.9. It should be a great match up and we have the winning play ATS and it's backed by a full in depth analysis guaranteed or one day is FREE!

Falcons +3.5 -115 buy 1/2 - 5.5* NFL POD

I'm not sold on the Giants back to back wins vs. the Cowboys and Jets does not really impress me because neither of those teams had much balance on offense and now they face the Falcons who ironically have a lot of balance with Matt Ryan and Michael Turner. The Giants pass rush and all the hype of them reminding the media of the 2007 Super Bowl team to me is so far off. For one the Giants actually had a running game in 2007. This year they are ranked dead last in rushing yards and the Falcons have a very capable run stop unit.

Yes the Giants came on strong at the end of the year but remember their game against the Redskins? Yuck, I just think this team is a .500 team and not a team that can string off a bunch of wins mainly because their secondary and rushing defense are suspect and the pass rush can not hide everything especially going up against the Falcons who will go into a no huddle offense at any time. I also expect to see Turner have designed runs at Osi Umenyiora who struggles in run defense. The Giants are 23rd in the league in run defense from a ypc aspect allowing 4.5 ypc. The Falcons have been just as hot at the end of the season in fact Matt Ryan has 10 TD passes 0 Interceptions over his last 4 games.

Atlanta is +7 turnover margin in their last 3 games while the Giants are +3 both teams rank in the top 10 for the season. In a game where both teams are pretty even you have to take the under dog and that would be the Falcons. I like the fact that they are 8th in RZ defense from TD's allowed and have allowed opponents to get their 15 times less this season to the Giants 46 att to 61. The Giants are 23rd allowing 55.74% TD's in the red zone this season and the Falcons have gotten inside the red zone 3 more times than the Giants and are ranked 13th when they get their in TD%. They are also better at staying on the field as the Giants are 15th, converting 37.38% while the Falcons with balance are 6th 44.39%. Take away the two Victor Cruz plays in the last two games and this Giants team is ordinary and probably sitting home for the playoffs. They're 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 as a home favorite .5 to 3 points while the Road team is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 match ups in this series.

[Mr. IWS]

4-STAR Orlando over SACRAMENTO - It takes a disciplined team to try to pick apart Orlando's elite defense. Sacramento is anything but that. Look for them to start chucking the ball and letting the Magic take advantage.

Orlando lost on Friday night as Chicago was able to set up open threes, going 8-of-14 from behind the arc. The Magic are 16-0 ATS (10.7 ppg) since February 26, 2007 with at most one day of rest after a game at home in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them.
Jameer Nelson has been struggling from the field, scoring just nine and seven points the past two games. The Magic are 6-0 ATS (11.5 ppg) since April 09, 2007 on the road after two home games in which Jameer Nelson scored fewer than 10 points in each.
Sacramento won Thursday, 103-100. Milwaukee was leading nearly the entire way including after each of the first three quarters. The Bucks were up 21 at half. The Kings are 0-11 ATS (-8.8 ppg) since March 05, 2003 off a home win in which they trailed at the end of each of the first three quarters. Also,the Kings are 0-8 ATS (-9.9 ppg) since January 12, 2008 at home off a home win in which they trailed by 10+ points.
Those 100 points for Milwaukee were five more than expected. The Kings are 0-8 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since January 16, 2008 as a dog after a home win in which their DPA was positive.
Marcus Thornton led Sacramento in that one with 27 points. The Kings are 0-4 ATS (-9.8 ppg) since March 30, 2011 after a win in which Marcus Thornton was the Kings' high scorer. SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Orlando 99, SACRAMENTO 87