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Anthony Redd-
40 Dime Ravens
40 Dime Giants
40 Dime Ravens
40 Dime Giants
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401 K Sports-Matt Dennehy
NCAABB
2** Cleveland st/Valparaiso over 136.5 (2:30pm) - Rotation # 849/850 - Cleveland st has a very physical defense. That has led to a lot of fouls in their games. They have went over in their last 7 games despite holding their opponents to 34% shooting. Valpo is one team that shoots over the magic 70% free throws. Cleveland state is shooting very well right now so if Valpo is going to hang around in this one, they will need to take advantage of all the stoppages in play.
2** Ga Tech ML +115 over Maryland (4pm) - Rotation # 855 - This one screams out trap game. Ga Tech just broke a 4 game losing streak with a win over NC st to get to 6-8. Now they travel on the road to face a 11-4 Maryland team that is 10-1 at home. Tech got blown out by Duke and Bama so obviously they aren't that good. Despite all this they spread is just 1.5 pts. It opened at 2.5 so despite there being 70+% on Maryland, the line is going down. I smell something rotten here and will see if my instincts are right on this one. I smelled something on Iowa yesterday and this has the same stench.
BOL 2 allComment
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Sport Book Breakers
4.5-STAR New York +8 over GREEN BAY - The Giants are playing as well as any team in the league right now. They are the perfect matchup against Green Bay, not needing to rush to put pressure on Aaron Rodgers. This is an even matchup giving you a free five points which are huge.
New York won last week over Atlanta, 24-2. Their rushing game came alive with 31 rushes for 172 yards. The Giants are 23-0 ATS (11.1 ppg) since 1994 on the road on Sundays the game after a win in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing but scored less than 42 points (team=Giants and A and day=Sunday and p:W and p:RY>=150 and points<42 and season>=1994).
It could have been worse but New York was just 1-of-3 on red zone attempts, settling for a field goal after a first-and-goal situation in the third quarter. The Giants are 16-0 ATS (+10.7 ppg) since January 2003 on the road when they are off a win when they were not 9+ point dogs in which they failed on at least one goal-to-go attempt, as long as they were not up by 24+ points at the half in that game (team=Giants and A and p:W and p:line<9 and p:M2<24 and p:GTGF>0 and date>=20030101).
Ball control has been huge for the Giants. They did not turn the ball over in the game and have not thrown a pick in three games. The Giants are 13-0 ATS (10.9 ppg) since October 12, 1997 as a dog the week after a win in which they committed no turnovers (team=Giants and D and p:TO=0 and NB and p:W and date>=19971012). Also, the Giants are 8-0 ATS (10.2 ppg) since December 04, 1994 on the road after wins in each of the previous two weeks in which they threw no interceptions (team=Giants and A and p:INT=0 and pp:INT=0 and p:W and pp:W and date>=19941201 and NB and p:NB).
Eli Manning has been great over the stretch. He was 23-of-32 in that game for 277 yards. The Giants are 8-0 ATS (10.2 ppg) since December 04, 1994 as a 7+ dog when they had fewer than ten incompletions last week (team=Giants and line>=7 and p:INC<10 and date>=19941201).
However, it was their defense in that game which really stepped up. The Giants are 11-0 ATS (14.1 ppg) since December 22, 2002 on the road after they allowed at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average (team=Giants and A and pooints+10<=tA(pooints) and date>=20021222).
Atlanta had serious trouble converting when they needed to in that game. They were 4-of-14 on third downs and 0-of-3 on fourth downs. The Giants are 11-0 ATS (14.5 ppg) since December 22, 2002 as a dog after a win by less than 35 points where they held their opponent to under 33% (team=Giants and D and 35>p:margin>0 and po:3DP<33).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: New York 31, GREEN BAY 27
4-STAR BALTIMORE -7.5 over Houston - Baltimore did not go for the throat against anybody down the stretch so people are taking them lightly here. Still, TJ Yates in Baltimore! The Ravens are going to pull out all the stops in this one and pick up the easy win.
Houston won their opening round game at home 31-10 over Cincinnati where the line was -4 with a total of 38.5. They didn't win it as much as they let the Bengals lose it. The Bengals committed three turnovers while the Texans did not commit any. The Texans are 0-11 ATS (-8.4 ppg) since 2005 when they are off a game in which they committed no turnovers and scored between 17 and 35 points, and they were not 9+ dogs in that game (team=Texans and season>=2005 and p:TO=0 and 35>=points>=17 and p:line<9). Also, the Texans are 0-9-2 ATS (-11.7 ppg) since 2003 after a game that went over the total where they benefited from a +2 turnover margin (team=Texans and season>=2003 and p:O and p:TOM<=-2 and NB).
They did convert when they got the chance though, with four touchdowns. The Texans are 0-5 ATS (-10.9 ppg) since December 2004 as an away dog after a game where they scored at least four touchdowns (p:TD>=4 and team=Texans and AD and 20041205<=date).
They are getting a rested Baltimore team which is going to have an extra week to scheme against them. The Texans are 0-8-1 ATS (-4.9 ppg) since October 29, 2006 when their opponent is off their bye and didn't win by 14+ the week before it.
Baltimore is one of the best home teams in the league, particularly against non AFC North teams. The Ravens are 8-0ATS (8.0 ppg) since October 14, 2007 as a home favorite of no more than 7.5 points vs a non-divisional opponent (team=Ravens and date>=20071014 and HF and line>=-7.5 and NDIV).
Their last game in week 17 was also against the Bengals, a meaningful 24-16 win. They led 17-3 at half, but Cincinnati controlled the time of possession in the game with 30:34 of possession. The Ravens are 13-0 ATS (10.0 ppg) since October 31, 2004 after a game where they did not control the time of possession but led at half (team=Ravens and date>=20041031 and p:TOP<1800 and p:M2>0).
They had just 15 first downs in that game and three were via Cincinnati penalties. The Ravens are 11-0-1 ATS (10.1 ppg) since 2002 at home when not a 13+ favorite after a game where they picked up at least three first downs via penalties (team=Ravens and season>=2002 and H and line>-13 and p:PENFD>=3).
They were only in the red zone once in that game and scored a TD when there. The Ravens are 7-0 ATS (8.9 ppg) since November 30, 2008 with a total under 44.5 after a game where they did not fail to score a TD in any red zone attempts (team=Ravens and date>=20081130 and total<44.5 and p:RZF=0).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: BALTIMORE 27, Houston 10Comment
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