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NHL Hockey Play of the Day January 17, 2012 3:01 AM by GT Staff
NHL Hockey
Nashville Predators at New York Rangers -165 at 4:35 p.m. PT
Just a great spot for the Rangers as they had the day off yesterday while Nashville was on the Island beating the Islanders, look for the first place Rangers to put an abrupt halt to the Nashville five game winning streak.
4-STAR MILWAUKEE over Denver - Denver starts a long five-game road trip tonight but the thing is, with the level of opponents they play it does not create much sense of urgency. Milwaukee meanwhile absolutely needs this win after losing two straight and have likely six games in a row coming up where they will be underdogs as well, four as heavy road dogs. This is a big game for them to pull off.
Milwaukee lost each of its last two games, at Dallas and Philadelphia by double digits. The Bucks are 9-0-1 ATS (8.6 ppg) since November 21, 2008 at home when they lost and failed to covered as an underdog in each of their last two games.
They did not shoot the ball well in either, going a combined 8-of-38 on threes. The Bucks are 6-0 ATS (7.9 ppg) since January 08, 2008 as a dog when they shot less than 25% from the three-point-line in each of their last two games.
The game yesterday was a 94-82 loss to Philly. They had just 16 assists on 35 baskets in that loss. The Bucks are 9-0 ATS (9.1 ppg) since January 27, 2008 as a home dog after a game on the road in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points lower than their season-to-date average.
They had 16 turnovers as well, 12 of which came by steals. The Bucks are 6-0 ATS (10.1 ppg) since October 31, 2009 with at most one day of rest after a game in which their opponent stole the ball at least twelve times.
Brandon Jennings went 3-of-11 for seven points in that game. The Bucks are 5-0 ATS (5.5 ppg) since April 03, 2010 with no rest after a loss in which Brandon Jennings scored fewer than 10 points.
Denver was upset last game, 106-96 to Utah. They made 26 free throws in that game. The Nuggets are 0-9 ATS (-8.3 ppg) since March 01, 2009 as a road favorite with at least one day of rest after a game in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line.
This is a rare second non-conference meetings for teams early in this season. Denver pulled off a late 91-86 win at home in the first matchup. They had trailed by six entering the fourth quarter. The Bucks are 6-0 ATS (5.3 ppg) since February 26, 2008 as a dog when seeking revenge for a loss as a dog in which they led at the end of the third quarter.
Arron Afflalo went just 2-of-8 for four points in that game. The Nuggets are 0-9 ATS (-13.4 ppg) since December 20, 2009 as a favorite after winning the previous matchup at home in which Arron Afflalo scored fewer than 10 points.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: MILWAUKEE 90, Denver 86
4-STAR Chicago and Phoenix Under - We certainly saw the way Derrick Rose's injury changes the complexion of Chicago's offense yesterday. However, there is no reason their defense can't still play well and we expect that to occur tonight.
Phoenix had a day off after a 102-91 loss to San Antonio on Sunday. They made just 10 free throws in that loss. The Suns are 0-10 OU (-11.5 ppg) since December 08, 2009 on the road after a loss in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line.
Jared Dudley went just 4-of-9 from the field with 12 points in that game. The Suns are 0-9 OU (-11.6 ppg) since January 24, 2011 on the road after a loss in which Jared Dudley took fewer than 10 shots.
Chicago played in Memphis yesterday afternoon and without Derrick Rose, fell 102-86. They managed just 12 assists in his absence. The Bulls are 0-8 OU (-12.2 ppg) since March 20, 2000 at home with at most one day of rest after a loss in which less than 40% of their baskets were assisted.
However, they also allowed Memphis to score 15 points more than expected. The Bulls are 0-8 OU (-13.9 ppg) since December 29, 2008 with at most one day of rest after a road loss in which their DPA was at least plus 15 points.
That was even with Memphis going just 5-of-9 at the free throw line at the game. The Bulls are 0-8-1 OU (-7.5 ppg) since March 08, 2007 with at most one day of rest after a road loss in which their opponent shot less than 60% from the free-throw line.
Chicago was bad at the free throw line in that one, going just 1-of-12 on threes. The Bulls are 0-6 OU (-12.4 ppg) since March 19, 2010 at home with at most one day of rest after a game in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line.
Joakim Noah did not pick up any of the offensive slack, going just 1-of-4 for two points. The Bulls are 0-7 OU (-15.6 ppg) since November 01, 2008 at home after a loss on the road in which Joakim Noah shot worse than 33% from the field. Also, the Bulls are 0-7-1 OU (-15.6 ppg) since March 25, 2010 at home after Joakim Noah scored fewer than 10 points the last two.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: CHICAGO 90, Phoenix 84
4-STAR Charlotte and Orlando Over - Orlando is generally known for their defense, but it's been their offense which has been surging lately, scoring at least 102 points in each of their last four game. Charlotte meanwhile has allowed at least 98 points in each of their last four games so we expect Orlando to score enough to help carry this game over.
Charlotte lost yesterday afternoon to Cleveland, 102-94. They had 20 assists and 10 turnovers in that one. The Bobcats are 8-0 OU (16.8 ppg) since March 24, 2005 as a dog with no rest after a loss in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two.
One thing that kept them, and scoring, down in that game was Charlotte going just 14-of-26 at the line. The League is 7-0 OU (15.0 ppg) since April 04, 2010 as a dog with no rest after a home loss in which they shot less than 60% from the free-throw line.
Orlando struggled from the line yesterday too, going 13-of-22 in a 102-93 win at New York. The Magic are 8-0 OU (15.4 ppg) since December 23, 1999 with no rest after a road win in which they shot less than 60% from the free-throw line.
They also committed 17 turnovers in the game, 12 came on steals. The Magic are 7-0 OU (9.1 ppg) since March 26, 2006 as a home favorite after a game on the road in which their opponent stole the ball at least twelve times.
These teams played already in late December with Orlando cruising to a 100-79 win. Charlotte shot just 36% in that game. The Bobcats are 6-0 OU (9.3 ppg) since January 14, 2011 when seeking revenge for a loss in which they shot less than 40% from the field.
DJ Augusin was part of the problem, going just 3-of-11 from the field. The Bobcats are 6-0 OU (12.5 ppg) since April 12, 2010 after losing the previous matchup at home in which Dj Augustin shot worse than 33% from the field. SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: ORLANDO 107, Charlotte 97
Miami Heat (-9) vs. San Antonio Spurs
This game is the only nationally televised game of the night. This is an easy pick in my opinion. The Spurs are 9-4, but only because of their dominance at home. San Antonio has lost every road game this year, and the loss at Milwaukee was their only road loss of less than ten points. The Heat has lost one home game, and the rest have been victories by decent margins. I’m expecting the old Spurs to get run out of the building by a Heat team that is hell bent on bouncing back after three straight losses.
Phoenix Suns at Chicago Bulls UNDER 184.5 points
Here is the stat that should seal the deal for this pick: the Chicago Bulls have not given up more than 75 points at home this season. The Atlanta Hawks scored 74 points on January 3rd, and are a significantly better team than the Phoenix Suns. The Suns have been able to score over 100 points at home, but have struggled on the road. Their highest road total was 97 points against the Oklahoma City Thunder at the end of December. I’m expecting the Bulls, who will have Derrick Rose back, to lock down the Suns, which will keep the total safely less than 184.5 points.
20 Dime Play on the MILWAUKEE BUCKS as the underdog agaanst Denver. Milwaukee is curreently listed as a 3 point underdog in the books offshore and in Vegas.
10 Dime Play on the MICHIGAN WOLVERINES as the underdog against Michigan State. Michigan is currently listed as a 1 point underdeg in the books offshore and in Vegas.
Jeff Benton
Tuesday's Action 20 Dimewinner going out on the Cleveland Cavaliers as the home favarite this Tuesday night agaienst the Golden State Warriors. At the time I release this winner, the Cavs are listed as the 2 1/2-point favorite both here in Vegas and offshore.
10 Dime bonus winner in college basketball on the Maryland Terrapins as the road underdog versus the Florida State Seminoles. At the time I release this winner, the Terps are the 11-point underdog both here in Vegas and offshore.
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