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Ottawa +110 over ANAHEIM Pinnacle
4:00 PM EST. The Senators are two points behind the Rangers for first overall in the conference. They're four points behind Chicago for first place in the entire league. The Sens keep on winning, yet the books and/or public is not willling to give them elite status. That's fine by us because we keep cashing in on them and we're not about to stop now. Chicago, Boston, Philly, Detroit, Vancouver, San Jose, St. Louis and Pittsburgh would all be favored in Anaheim and Ottawa deserves the same billing. The Sens are coming off a 4-1 win in San Jose. They've picked up points in 11 of their past 12 games. Without trying to sound redundant, Ottawa is still not getting the credit they deserve. The Ducks have awoken with six wins in seven games but they beat the Islanders, Stars, Blue Jackets, Oilers and Coyotes. All five of those teams will be golfing in April. Anaheim has a good win in Vancouver mixed in there but the Canucks were returning home from that East Coast trip and were in a difficult spot. We'll give the Ducks some credit for their recent wins but their stock is way too high after beating a bunch of nobodies. The Ducks are still a weak team defensively while the Sens are having way too much fun to ignore as a pup against inferior clubs. Play: Ottawa +110 (Risking 2 units).
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TORONTO -½ +104 over Montreal (REG) Pinnacle
Montreal’s 5-4 OT loss last night in Pittsburgh is a lot less credible than it appears to be. Pittsburgh was coming off a 4-1 win at Madison Square the previous night and were playing its third game in four days. The Habs blew a 3-1 lead in that game against a tired Pens club in a letdown spot. Now Montreal will play its third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs. That’s a tough assignment for strong clubs but for weak one’s like the Canadiens it’s a daunting assignment. The Habs have dropped five of six and 12 of their past 16 games. They beat teams that are in unfavorable spots. Rarely do they outplay anyone and that’s because they’re hugely flawed on defense, offense and special teams. The Maple Leafs are coming off that 4-1 win over Minnesota. That’s not saying much but previous games are. Toronto clearly dominated Ottawa in that 3-2 loss but a soft goal allowed by James Reimer early in the third took all the steam out of the Leafs. They recently had a four-game winning streak in which they outscored the opposition 17-6. The Leafs are in a much more favorable spot, they’re the superior team by a wide margin, they’re at home and they’re rested. Play: Toronto -½ +104 (Risking 2 units).
Georgia State/ Delaware Over 128.5: I have lost a few when taking the over in a Georgia State game, but I will go right back to them here. Georgia State has had some problems scoring of late as they have averaged just 60.4 ppg in their last 5 games, but that should change today vs a Delaware squad that has allowed 72.5 ppg in their last 6 games, while at home this year they have allowed 67 ppg at home on the year. Now despite the recent scoring woes for Georgia State they have still averaged 65 ppg on the road this year. Defense is where GSU has made their money this year as they come in having allowed just 57 ppg overall, but on the road they have allowed slightly more (62 ppg). Delaware has been an average team at the offensive end of the floor this year, as they have put up 67.6 ppg overall and 68.1 ppg at home, so this team is capable of putting up spome points. GSU should awaken on offense vs a Delaware team that has struggled at the defensive end, while the Blue Hens, will do their part by hitting 65 + points in front of the home crowd, in a game that should be played in the 130's. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Over in a game where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points if the home team is a poor shooting team (40-42.5%) against an excellent defensive team (<=40%), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) after 15+ games. This play is 32-12 since 1997.
Kansas -3 over TEXAS: (Added) No offense to Baylor and Missouri below, but I feel the Jayhawks may be the best team in the Big 12 and they really proved how good they were with an 18 point walloping of Baylor in their last game. Kansas is 3-0 in true road games and 5-0 in the Big 12, while outscoring conference foes by an average of 18.2 ppg.The Jayhawks have allowed just 60.6 ppg in the Big 12, while Texas has given up 69 ppg in conference play, and that really isn't good, considering the fact that Kansas has put up 78.8 ppg in their conference games. Texas has averaged 75.8 ppg overall, but in conference play that number dips to 68.6 ppg on 41% shooting. Overall the offenses are even, but in big 12 play the Jayhawks get a big advantage, while they also have a sizeable advantage on defense. Kansas is off a big win vs Baylor, and if they were a lesser team then I would expect a letdown, but not from a top 10 team. Texas just doesn't have the horses on offense of the stopping power on defense to keep Kansas from winning this one by at least 7 points . KEY TRENDS--- KANSAS is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) after 2 straight games where they were called for 15 or less fouls since 1997, while TEXAS is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons.
3 UNIT PLAYS
KENTUCKY-10 over Alabama: Bama just got shelled at home vs Vanderbilt (final was closer than actual game) and now they take to the road vs a Kentucky team that is 13-0 at home and has won those games by an average of 24.2 ppg, while winning both their conference home games by 15 and 23 points. Kentucky has averaged 83.5 ppg on an impressive 49.1% shooting at home this year and while Bama has allowed just 59.2 ppg on the road they have also allowed teams to hit 45% of their shots away from home. Alabama has shot well away from home (51%), but have only put up 65.2 ppg, and they will be taking on a Kentucky team that has allowed just 59.3 ppg on a mere 35.8% shooting at home. The Cats are deep, very athletic and are playing very well right now and should have no problems winning this one by 15+points.
BAYLOR -4.5 over Missouri: (Added) Google News Play. The Bears were just embarrassed on National TV at Kansas in their last game and will look to get back on track with a solid win here.They also have some added incentive after getting blown out by Missouri last February. Despite their loss to the the Jayhawks, the Bears are still outscoring opponents by 16.2 PPG this season, and that margin rises to 24.7 PPG at home. They have shot 49% FG or better 10 times already, while holding 12 opponents below 40% FG. The Tigers’ potent offense has been limited on the road (70.0 PPG) compared to at home this season (86.2 ppg) and that is not good for them as Baylor has permitted teams just 56.8 ppg on a mere 34.1% shooting on their home floor this year. They Tiger's also rebound poorly (34.4 rpg, 203rd in nation), while Baylor’s massive frontcourt is a big reason the team pulls down 38.0 rpg. That size advantage for the Bears (3 starters at 6' 6" or taller) should really come into play vs a Missouri team that uses a guard heavy set and has just one regular starter listed at taller than 6-6 (Ricardo Ratliffe 6'8"). Missouri is a different team away from home and the home team has won the last 5 SU (4-1 ATS), an I look for the trend continue here. Missouri's guards are quick, but Baylor just has too much size on the inside for them to handle here. Baylor will pull away late.
2 UNIT PLAY
AUBURN +1.5 over South Carolina: AUBURN is 13-3 ATS in home games versus poor passing teams, averaging <=12 assists/game after 15+ games since 1997, while S CAROLINA is 1-8 ATS after scoring 65 points or less 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons.
Northeastern +10 over DREXEL: (Added) Play against home favorites of 10 or more points after scoring 60 points or less against opponent that has played 2 straight games where both teams score 65 points or less. This play is 36-12 the last 5 seasons.
1 UNIT PLAY
ARKANSAS PK over Michigan: ARKANSAS is 24-9 ATS in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games since 1997, while MICHIGAN is 3-12 ATS in road games after a game where they were called for 10 or less fouls since 1997.
WUNDERDOG CBB 174-139 Season-to-Date +$4840 Game: Kansas State at Oklahoma State (1:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Kansas State -3.5 (-110)
The Oklahoma State Cowboys are 9-9 on the season, and to their credit they played an aggressive early season schedule. The problem isn't with the schedule it is the fact they lost to every good team they played. Kansas State, at 11-4, also played a lot of tough games. The difference here is that they won a lot of them with wins vs. Texas, Virginia Tech, Alabama and Long Beach State - a few of the teams that beat Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have shown no resolve as a dog of +6.5 or less where they are a money burning 14-30-1 ATS in their last 45. Play this one on Kansas State.
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