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MMA Professor UFC on Fox Pick
Rashad Evans (-170) over Phil Davis
Rashad Evans (-170) over Phil Davis
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Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Purdue/ Northwestern Under 139: Purdue has had some problems shooting and scoring of late as they have put up just 61 ppg in their last 2 games. Purdue has had problems scoring a bit in the Big 10 as they have put up 64 points or less in 4 of their last 6 conference games and they have averaged just 60 ppg in their last 3 conference games away from home. The teams they have struggled in putting up points against (Mich, Mich State, Wisc and PSU) all have played good defense this year and they Cats are no different, especially at home. Overall teh Cats have allowed a respectable 67.3 ppg on 43.2 % shooting, but at home they have allowed just 60.4 ppg on 40.9% shooting. They have played solid defense at home, and they have allowed just 62.3 ppg in their Big 10 home games as well. Purdue at the defensive end has struggled some, especially on the road where they have allowed 71.2 ppg on 48.65 shooting, but I don't feel that the Cats can take advantage too much here. northwestern has put up 69.9 ppg at home, but most of that was due to early season success. once the Big 10 slate has started for the Cats they have had problems scoring, putting up just 61.7 ppg on 42% shooting. another factor is FT shooting, wher the Cats have hit just 69% of their FT's, while Purdue has hit just 63.2% of theirs. Really, with a couple of struggling offenses and some average defensive play, this has the feel of a game where neither team will reach 70 points and we would need at least one of them to do so in order for this one to lose. I'll call for a game in the lower 130's.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Oklahoma State/ Texas A&M Over 119: Last night I came up with a simple little formula for totals and it went 3-1 in my CBB totals plays. Not sure if it has been thought of before, but it was some thing I was looking at. I took each teams combined points scored and allowed in 3 different categories. Home/Away conference games and Last 5 and then averaged them out and came up with a project total points scored. It helps to see where the value may lie. In this game using the formula I come up with a projected outcome of 130.3 points scored, which is 11.3 points higher than this line and I would say that's value. Neither team will look to push the ball in a game, but these two teams have been involved in some higher scoring games than normal of late. OSU had been playing solid defense this year, but in their last 5 games they have allowed 76 ppg, while in the same time they have average 68.4 ppg, for a combined total of 144.4 ppg in their last 5 games. Their road games this year have 135.4 ppg, thanks mainly to the fact that they have allowed 74.2 ppg on the road and that's good for an offensively challenged A&M squad, although they have averaged 65.6 ppg at home on the year. A&M has been tough at the defensive end this year, but it has been breaking down a bit of late as they have allowed 64.8 ppg in their last 5. Two struggling defenses should make for easier scoring for two teams that have not been known for putting a bunch of points on the board this year.
Louisville/ Seton Hall Over 128.5 : Google News Play (the Google writeup will be up at 4pm Update. Louisville is usually a very good defensive squad, but recently that has not been true. The Cardinals come in allowing 71.8 ppg in their last 5 games overall and they have allowed 67.7 ppg on the road this year. Now they get to face a Seton Hall team that has put up 72.4 ppg at home. The Hall did score just 42 points vs Notre Dame in their last game, but I don't expect 15 of 57 shooting from them here. The should bounce back with a solid offensive showing in this one. The Cardinals have had some inconsistencies on offense this year, but now that they are back to pushing the tempo a bit more they have averaged 74 ppg in their last 4 games and i do expect them to continue to push tempo here. Seton Hall has played good defense at home (60.4 ppg), but overall this unit has broken down some as they have allowed 67 ppg in their last 4 games and I don't see a reason why Louisville cant grab at least that much. I already stated that I expect Louisville to push the ball and that seems to be fine for a Seton Hall team that is 61st in the nation in shots per game (58 spg), while in the Big East that number jumps a bit to 60.3 spg. I really expect a fast paced game that should put around 140 points on the board.
2 UNIT PLAY
Mississippi State +9.5 over FLORIDA: Google News Play. Ok so Florida is 12-0 at home and they have really pasted their opponents on their home floor, but I do not believe any of their home opponents had the talent that the Bulldogs do. This Mississippi State team is very good at 17-4 and when they have lost it has not been by that much. two of the Bulldogs losses have been by 10 points, while their other 2 have been by 7 (Ole Miss) and 2 (Baylor) points. the Bulldogs also have some good wins on the year, which includes a home win over Alabama and a road win over a very hot Vanderbilt team. This is a legit top 20 team. Florida comes in on a 4 game win streak, but 3 of those games were vs Georgia, S. Carolina and LSU, while they needed a huge comeback in their last game vs Ole Miss, so it's really not all that an impressive win streak. I just feel that a ranked Bulldog team that has taken 4 of the last 5 in this series should be able to cover this inflated line. This one will come down to the wire. KEY TRENDS--- MISSISSIPPI ST is 11-3 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons, while FLORIDA is 1-10 ATS in a home game where the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 3 seasons.Comment
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Robert Ferringo
5-Unit Play. Take #697 CS-Fullerton (+13) over Long Beach State (11 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 28)
Note: This is my College Hoops Game of the Month
1-Unit Play. Take #543 Marquette (-3) over Villanova (Noon, Saturday, Jan. 28)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #547 Wake Forest (+11.5) over Clemson (Noon, Saturday, Jan. 28)
3-Unit Play. Take #589 San Diego State (-1.5) over Colorado State (4 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 28)there is a huge mismatch here.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #627 Cleveland State (-4) over Youngstown State (7 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 28)
2-Unit Play. Take #561 Mississippi State (+9) over Florida (1:45 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 28)
2-Unit Play. Take #709 Tennessee Tech (Pk) over Morehead State (3 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 28)
2-Unit Play. Take #592 LSU (+10.5) over Kentucky (4 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 28)
2-Unit Play. Take #632 Central Florida (-2) over Southern Miss (7 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 28)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #557 Arkansas State (+5.5) over North Texas (1 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 28)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #640 Arizona (-5.5) over Washington (7 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 28)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #681 Marshall (+9) over Memphis (9 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 28)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 128.5 Middle Tennessee at Vanderbilt (2 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 28)
1-Unit Play. Take #600 Pittsburgh (-1) over Georgetown (4 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 28)
1-Unit Play. Take #652 St. Bonaventure (-4.5) over Richmond (7 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 28)
1-Unit Play. Take #647 Xavier (-4) over Charlotte (7 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 28)
1-Unit Play. Take #615 Bowling Green (-4.5) over Eastern Michigan (6 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 28)
1-Unit Play. Take #619 Cincinnati (-1.5) over Rutgers (6 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 28)
1-Unit Play. Take #660 Seton Hal (-1) over Louisville (8 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 28)
1-Unit Play. Take #666 Minnesota (-4) over Illinois (8 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 28)
1-Unit Play. Take #669 UC-Santa Barbara (-4.5) over Pacific (8 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 28)
1-Unit Play. Take #655 Denver (-4) over Arkansas-Little Rock (8 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 28)
1-Unit Play. Take #699 Utah (+12) over USC (11 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 28)
0.5-Unit Play. Unit Play. Take #581 St. Louis (-5) over Massachusetts (2 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 28)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #585 Tulsa (-2.5) over SMU (3 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 28)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #605 Purdue (+1) over Northwestern (4 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 28)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #684 BYU (-2.5) over St. Mary's (9 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 28)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #609 Washington State (-2.5) over Arizona State (5 p.m.)
1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #554 Baylor (-7) over Texas (1 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 28) AND Take #727 Weber State (-3) over Idaho State (9 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 28)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #613 Lafayette (-3) over UL-Monroe (5 p.m.) AND Take #673 Nevada (-1) over Louisiana Tech (8 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #560 Alabama (-6.5) over Arkansas (1:30 p.m.) AND Take #697 CS-Fullerton (+17.5) over Long Beach State (11 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 28)
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #720 Tennessee State (-2.5) over Eastern Kentucky (8 p.m.) AND Take #727 Weber State (-3) over Idaho State (9 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 28)Comment
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