1-29-12

[Mr. IWS]

Note:

ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

David Malinsky

NFC at AFC Jan 29 2012 7:00PM PICK: NFC
REASON FOR PICK: 5* #496 NFC

Yes, All Star games can absolutely be beaten, which we have proven time and time again through the years. It happens because of settings like this one, where the oddsmakers put a generic small line into play, despite one team having significant edges over the other. So there is no hesitation to step in.

The balance of power has been shifting to the NFC in recent years, with the AFC having a couple of very strong teams at the top, but lacking depth. As such, the NFC has won three of the last four Pro Bowls, with each of the wins by nine points or more, and that includes a 55-40 rout LY in which the true reality was much worse than the scoreboard – it was 42-7 at halftime, and still 55-35 until that imaginative give-away fumble TD on the final play. But this time around we see the biggest gap of all, keyed at the most important position of all.

The NFC is simply dominant at QB. Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers had spectacular seasons, and both also bring the right kind of competitive drive to the table, which means wanting to erase the bitter memory of their playoff defeats. And we do not mind Cam Newton at all at #3, the proto-type of the kind of athletic QB that can be outstanding in these games. With no blitzing allowed, Newton’s mobility to get out of the pocket and make plays is a major advantage.

In many years the AFC could hold its own at QB, with Tom Brady and Peyton Manning as good as they come, and Matt Schaub being the MVP the last time the conference won this game. But they won’t be here. Instead it will be Philip Rivers, off of the worst season of his career, Ben Roethlisberger, who is not 100 percent physically, and Andy Dalton. A legitimate case could be made that three NFC QB’s that did not make the cut – Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan and Tony Romo – may have all been better than that AFC trio.

And of course there is the Super Bowl factor. That takes eight New England players away from the AFC roster, a significant dent. For the NFC it is only Eli Manning and Jason Pierre-Paul, and because of the depth at their position, there is no major impact. It leaves us with the superior team, with a coaching staff much more familiar with this kind of setting (not bad having Green Bay’s Mike McCarthy coaching his own QB), in a short price range, a range made even smaller by the high number of points that will be scored.

PICK: 5* #496 NFC

[Mr. IWS]

Turner

Chicago at Miami
Pick: Under 191.5

Atlanta at New Orleans
Pick: Under 174.5

Free Picks-
Georgia Tech/North Carolina Under 143.5
Los Angeles Clippers +6

[Mr. IWS]

Dom Chambers
Today's winners ...

My 80 Dime winner is on the Chicago Bulls as a road underdog against the Miami Heat. Checkang the sports books in Las Vegas at 1 a.m. and the Bulls are gethting 5 points. Always shop around to get the best postible number.

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

Oregon St +109 over OREGON

After California won at Washington last Thursday, the Golden Bears looked like they may have become the favorite to win the Pac-12. Then Cal lost at Washington State on Saturday. Enter Oregon. The Ducks followed up an impressive road win over Arizona last week with a pair of wins over USC and UCLA. With four wins in a row they now sit tied with Cal, just a half game back of Washington atop the conference standings. The Ducks are 6-2 in Pac-12 play and 15-5 overall but we're not buying in and neither are the books, who have made Oregon a very enticing -1½-point favorite at home. To emphasize a little more how the books aren't buying Oregon's success, consider that the Beavers are 3-5 in the conference and have lost 13 straight conference road games. However, this time of year, overvalued and overrated teams get exposed very quickly and the Ducks are far less talented, individually and combined, than their in-state rivals. The Beavers are so much more dangerous with the 5th most points scored per game in the country compared to the Ducks 157th ranking. In assists per game, the Beavers rank 6th while the Ducks rank 151st. In rebounds per games, the Ducks rank 240th. This is an Oregon team that has somehow managed to win a lot of games with ugly numbers and many flaws and it's simply unsustainable. The Ducks are perceived to be the better team by the betting public when in fact, they're not and what we get here is a road hungry and superior visitor taking back a small tag. Play: Oregon State +109 (Risking 2 units).

NIAGARA +3 over Manhattan

We'll stick with our philosophy here of selling high and we endorse that philosphy even more against teams on the road. The Manhattan Jaspers have won six in a row to shoot up the MAAC standings into a tie with Iona and Loyola. The Jaspers are now 8-2 in the conference and 15-7 overall. Meanwhile, the Purple Eagles are just 4-6 in the conference and 13-9 overall. Niagara went into Manhattan last Sunday and lost by just seven in a game with some interesting notes. First, the Jaspers outscored Niagara by 17 from the stripe and that's not going to happen again in a road game. Secondly, Niagara had less turnovers, more steals and outscored the Jaspers by 10 on the floor. The Purple Eagles are a nice home and cover team. They're now 17-7 against the spread (ATS) in last 24 conference games and they're 10-1 ATS in last 11 against Manhattan. The Jaspers will play their third road contest in past four games and tail end of back-to-back road contests after playing in Canisius on Friday. With two home games on deck this coming week including a showdown against Iona, the Jaspers are ripe for the taking. Play: Niagara +3 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).

[Mr. IWS]

Arlon Hoops

Connecticut

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Rivers
500,000* Iona

[Mr. IWS]

Jimmy Boyd 1/29

4* Niagara +3

3* Denver Nuggets -6

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner

100* Over 174.5 Hawks/Hornets

50* Notre Dame +8.5

[Mr. IWS]

Master Release Confidential
Plays for Sunday, January 29
CBB
Oregon State +1.5
Evansville -5

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

NEW ORLEANS +120 over Atlanta

The Atlanta Hawks are 14-6 and remain one of the most overvalued teams in the Association. It's only a matter of time before they start losing more games than they win and this is the perfect spot for that to begin. The Hawks pulled a rabbit out of their hats on Friday night in Detroit with a win in OT after trailing by 11 at the half and hitting a miracle 3-point buzzer beater to send the game into extra time. The Hawks trailed by six with 34 seconds remaining. Atlanta will now play its fifth road game in nine days and sixth game overall over that same span. Atlanta's bench still looms as a major weakness and with this relentless schedule, that weak bench will start factoring into results. The Hornets are 4-15 and that looks really ugly on paper. However, they play as hard as any team in the league and they've also had the NBA's fourth toughest schedule. New Orleans is coming off a solid 93-67 win over Orlando to snap a nine game losing streak. The Hornets are definitely deeper, they're a better rebounding team than Atlanta and their defensive numbers against much tougher competition is also better. The Hawks winning with smoke and mirrors ends here. Play: New Orleans +120 (Risking 2 units).

NEW JERSEY -5 over Toronto

We often talk about overlays but let's switch gears and talk about an underlay that exists here. New Jersey has played 20 games this year and have been favored twice. They won and covered both times they were favored and chances are this will be its easiest of them all. The Nets have won three of four and that includes a win in Philadelphia followed by a win in Cleveland. Deron Williams is playing the best basketball of his career. Williams had 34 points in Philly and followed that up with 27 points and 10 assists against the Cavs'. Anthony Morrow is also coming on with one of the sweetest shots in the game. The Nets catch the Raptors in an almost impossible spot. Toronto will play the final game of a five-game trip. It started in Los Angeles last Sunday and carried on into Phoenix, Utah and Denver. After playing in the high altitide of Utah and Denver, the Raps come back east now to play their fifth road game in seven days without the services of Andrea Bargnani. It's no coincidence that the Raps two wins on this trip came with Bargnani in and the two losses occurred with him out. We can't stress enough what a different team Toronto is without Bargnani. Not only is he a great shooter and rebounder, the whole offense goes through him. He demands double teams and that opens up everything else. Without him, the Raps are simply lost out there. With Toronto wrapping up a tough trip and without Bargnani, they're in big trouble against a team that is hot and playing with confidence. Under the outstanding tutelage of coach Avery Johnson, who demands careful attention to details and does not tolerate anyone not playing 100% all of the time, the Nets strong play continues here with an easy win. Play: New Jersey -5 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).

MINNESOTA -1½ over L.A. Lakers

The Lakers have one win in eight road games. On three days rest they embarked on a two-game trip beginning yesterday in Milwaukee against the Bogut-less Bucks. They lost by 11 as a five-point choice. On the road on zero days rest the Lakers are 1-4. On one day rest, the Timberwolves are 7-3. Minnesota has won two in a row over Dallas and San Antonio. Rick Adelman has taken a young and very talented team and has them believing. Kevin Love, Michael Beasley and Ricky Rubio could instantly crack any lineup in the league. Rubio is one of the most unique players this league has ever seen. He's scary good and he's getting better with each passing game. The T-Wolves are a team that has had so many high draft picks over the past few years and we're starting to see the payoff now. The Target Center will be absolutely rocking for this one and once again, as they have been all year, the Lakers are getting far too much respect for a team that can't win on the road. Play: Minnesota -1½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

[Mr. IWS]

power play wins

denver nuggets -6.5

[Mr. IWS]

insidersedgeclub

NCAAB

Georgia Tech +21 3 units,
Niagara +3 3 units

[Mr. IWS]

David Banks

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
The Los Angeles Lakers (11-8, 8-11 ATS) 15-game winning streak against the Minnesota Timberwolves (9-10, 12-7 ATS) will be on the line Sunday night when the teams clash at the Target Center in their first meeting of the season; take this one in live on NBA League Pass at 7:00 ET.

The Lakers will be forced to play this one on no rest after battling the Bucks in Milwaukee last night; LA checks in 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS on no rest to date. The changing of the guard in Tinseltown hasn’t gone as smoothly as Jack Nicholson and the rest of the celebrity faces that pack the Staples Center every home game would have liked. While Coach Mike Brown’s squad has only gone down twice as a host in 12 tries, the squad has been wretched on the road where it’s compiled 1-6 SU & ATS marks heading into Saturday night. Los Angeles still plays a solid brand of defense giving up an average of just 90.5 PPG (#5) and a 41.5 opponent shooting percentage (#5), but only Kobe Bryant, Paul Gasol, and Andrew Bynum check in as the double-digit scorers with the team scoring 92.5 PPG (#20) while shooting a wretched 27.0 percent from downtown (#30).

While the probability of the Timberwolves competing in the highly competitive Northwest Division is highly unlikely, the franchise finally finds itself back on the NBA map after Coach Rick Adelman’s squad won nine of its first 19 games. Through 19 games last season, the Timberwolves had earned just four wins and stood 8-11 against the closing pointspread. However, with the addition of Spanish sensation Ricky Rubio to the Wolves starting line-up, the squad has flourished and sits just a game under the breakeven point heading into tonight’s clash. On top of it, Minny has lined its betting backers’ pockets with some green having covered in 12 of their lined contests. Offensively, this squad attacks the glass and gives itself numerous second chance opportunities, while at the other end of the court, the squad ranks amongst the top 15 in all pertinent defensive categories. Minnesota’s gone 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS as a home chalk this season.

As already stated, LA has flat out owned the Timberwolves winning each of the L/15 overall meetings while covering the closing number in eight of those games. The teams split ATS in their four meetings last season with both meetings in Minnesota combining to go ‘under’ the total; the ‘under’ is 7-1-1 in the L/9 overall confrontations. LA has covered six of its L/7 trips to the Twin Cities, but has only gone 2-7 ATS its L/9 versus Northwest Division opposition. The Timberwolves have covered seven of their L/10 against +.500 opponents, but check in just 6-14 ATS the L/20 times they took on a sub .500 road team.

PICK: UNDER

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Benton
Sunday's Action
20 Dime winner going out on the Michigan Wolverines as the road unardog againest the Ohio State Buckeyes. At the time I release this winning selecthon to you, the Wolverines are a 14-point dog boh here in Vegas and offshore.





10 Dime winner on the Atlanta Hawks as the small road favorite at the New Orleans Hornets. At the time I am releasing this selection to you, the Hawks are a 2 1/2-point road favorite.