2-4-12

[Mr. IWS]

Note:

ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

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Brandon Lang


50 Dime Play

Wisconsin-Green Bay -2 over Wisconsin-Milwaukee


Free Pick

Creighton -2 over Northern Iowa

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DR BOB

CMICH
WAKE FOREST
S.Florida
Evansville
Maryland
Auburn
Lsu

[Mr. IWS]

DR. BOB


COLLEGE
2 Star Selection
South Florida (+9 1/2) over GEORGETOWN
04-Feb-12 08:00 AM Pacific
Georgetown is just 10-31 ATS in conference home games the last 5 seasons, including 1-4 ATS this season and 2-17 ATS when favored by 9 points or more (0-12 ATS against teams with a win percentage of .550 or higher). South Florida is just ½ a game behind Georgetown in the Big East standings (6-3 to the Hoyas’ 7-3) and using conference games only would favor Georgetown by just 5 ½ points. I’ll take South Florida in a 2-Star Best Bet at +9 points or more.

Play Strength: 2-Stars at +9 or more.

3 Star Selection
Wake Forest (+14) over NC STATE
04-Feb-12 10:00 AM Pacific
NC State won at Wake Forest 76-40 a few weeks ago, but the Demon Deacons apply to a 49-13-3 ATS subset of a 165-94-7 ATS road underdog revenge situation that is 17-4 ATS if the earlier loss was by 25 points or more. NC State hasn’t played as well at home and they’re only 3-6 ATS as a favorite of 10 points or more. That record would be even worse if there had been lines on the 4 games there were no lines on, as their home wins over NC Asheville, NC Central, and Campbell were by margins of just 9, 5, and 6 points (they would have covered in a 34 point win over Delaware State). Wake Forest is 4-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog and my ratings favor NC State by only 12 points in this game. I’ll take Wake Forest in a 3-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more and for 2-Stars down to +13.

Play Strength: 3-Stars at +14 or more, 2-Stars down to +13.

2 Star Selection
LSU (-4) over Arkansas
04-Feb-12 10:30 AM Pacific
Arkansas is just 1-5 ATS away from home this season and the Razorbacks have a long history of playing poorly on the road – going 22-65-5 ATS in road games when not getting at least 11 points against a team with a winning record, including 3-24-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. New Razorbacks’ head coach Mike Anderson also has a history of his teams playing relatively worse on the road and his teams are Missouri and Arkansas ar now 10-33 ATS in road games against teams with a win percentage of .550 or better (1-4 ATS this season). Arkansas beat LSU 69-60 at home earlier this season thanks to favorable 3-point shooting variance (Ark was 9 for 18 while LSU was 3 for 18) but the Razorbacks struggle defensively away from home (53.2% FG allowed) and LSU head coach Trent Johnson is 62% ATS in his coaching career in same season revenge games (7-4 ATS with LSU), including 20-9-1 ATS in home revenge games (3-1 ATS with LSU). My ratings favor LSU by 4 points with a standard home court advantage and Anderson’s teams at Missouri and Arkansas have been 4.1 points per game worse in road games than their overall rating (after adjusting for the fact that they were on the road). I’ll take LSU in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less.

Play Strength: 2-Stars at -4 or less.

3 Star Selection
Central Michigan (+14 ½) over OHIO
04-Feb-12 11:00 AM Pacific
Ohio is an impressive 18-4 this season but the Bobcats aren’t winning games by big margins and they’re just 5-12 ATS as a favorite of 9 points or more under coach John Groce, including 1-5 ATS this season. Ohio probably won’t have much respect for a Central Michigan team that has lost 6 straight games and the Bobcats apply to a 26-92-1 ATS big favorite letdown situation if they’re favored by 14 points or more. Central Michigan, meanwhile, applies to a 41-7-1 ATS subset of a 94-38-5 ATS double-digit underdog bounce-back situation today, so the technical analysis strongly favors the Chippewas in this game. My ratings only favor Ohio by 11 points, so we have line value on our side too. I’ll take Central Michigan in a 3-Star Best Bet at +13 points or more and for 2-Stars down to +12 points.

Play Strength: 3-Stars at +13 or more, 2-Stars down to +12.

2 Star Selection
Evansville (-1 ½) over SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
04-Feb-12 12:05 PM Pacific
Evansville is on an 11-2 ATS run and the Aces still look under-valued. My ratings favor Evansville by 5 points and they should be able to beat a 7-16 Southern Illinois team that is too offensively challenged to take advantage of the Aces’ poor defense (they shot just 41% from the floor in an 18 point loss at Evansville). I’ll take Evansville in a 2-Star Best Bet at -2 or better.

Play Strength: 2-Stars at -2 or better.

2 Star Selection
MARYLAND (+12) over North Carolina
04-Feb-12 01:00 PM Pacific
Maryland applies to a 45-14-1 ATS subset of a 104-44-5 ATS home underdog bounce-back situation today and North Carolina looks a bit overrated without Dexter Strickland, whose 1.3 steals per game and overall good defense are tough to replace. My ratings favor North Carolina by only 11 points, so we have some line value to go along with a good situation. I’ll take Maryland in a 2-Star Best Bet at +12 points or more.

Play Strength: 2-Stars at +12 or more.

2 Star Selection
Auburn (+12 ½) over MISSISSIPPI STATE
04-Feb-12 01:00 PM Pacific
Mississippi State has a tendency to letdown as a big home favorite against mediocre and bad teams, as the Bulldogs are just 13-37-1 ATS as a home favorite of 9 points or more against teams with a win percentage of less than .666 under coach Stansbury. Auburn has covered in 6 of their last 7 games by slowing down the pace and playing good defense, which are good characteristics for a big underdog. The Tigers apply to a very good 89-24-3 ATS big road underdog situation and my ratings favor Miss State by 12 points – so the line is fair. I’ll take Auburn in a 2-Star Best Bet at +12 points or more and for 3-Stars at +13 or more.

Play Strength: 2-Stars at +12 or more, 3-Stars at +13.

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Scott Spreitzer

3* Connecticut -7

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Big AL

NHL
Philadelphia ML -165

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Wayne Root

Notre Dame
Iowa State
Wisconsin

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL

These are not internet plays

612 SOUTH CAROLINA +12

680 MISSOURI -2½

[Mr. IWS]

root

millionaire notre dame
Pinnacle wisconsin
no limit fresno state
fortune 500 iowa state