2-5-12

[poopoo333]

Note:

ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[poopoo333]

Brandon Lang's 200 Dime Super Bowl Selection


NEW YORK GIANTS +3







Mr. Brandon Lang's Analysis of the 2012 Super Bowl:

Note:

17-2-2 speaks for itself.

I have only lost this game twice in over 20 years in this business. Nobody can touch that. Nobody can match that. Nobody even comes close to that.

And there isn't a single ounce of doubt when this game ends Sunday night it will go to 18-2-2. That is how much I love this game.

It's the 2nd largest of my career off the 1,000 Dime Move on the Steelers moneyline over the Seahawks.

I have had nothing but 100 dimers which includes the 100 dime super bowl winner their last super bowl meeting and this play is twice as strong as that release.

Twice as strong as a predicted 11 1/2 point underdog I said would shock the world and win the whole game outright? You bet your ass it is.

Quick question for you.

What has changed since 2007 that leads anybody to believe the outcome of this game will be any different?

First and foremost, the Patriots defense has gotten worse and Eli Manning has gotten better.

That in itself makes the Giants the right side again.

New England isn't going to ride the 2nd worst defense in the NFL to a Super bowl title. Just not going to happen.

If Joe Flacco can roll into cold New England with that limited offense and shred the Pats defense to the tune of 22 for 36 for close to 300 yards, what do you think Eli is going to do indoors on a fast track?

Don't get me wrong, the Patriots will have some success on offense but it will be their defense's ability to get a few key stops in the 2nd half that will be the difference in the ball game.

Now here are some more reasons why I love the dog in what will push my #1 super bowl record in the world to 18-2-2 for my career.

I am the greatest super bowl handicapper that ever lived and I prove it again Sunday.

Analysis

It's all about little brother putting on a show in big brothers house.

This game Sunday isn't about Bill Belichick. It's not about Tom Brady. It's not about the New England Patriots.

It's about Eli Manning.

If you think for one second the 2nd worst defense in the NFL is going to stop him, then you are highly mistaken my friend.

They couldn't rattle him in 2007 when they were the better team and undefeated with a defense featuring Junior Seau, Teddy Bruschi, Vrabel and Rodney Harrison.

You think this 31st defense is going to rattle him? Come on now.

The Eli the Patriots saw in 2007 and the Eli they are seeing on Sunday is about as different as Rex Grossman and Joe Montana.

There is no way the Patriots defense is going to play well enough to shut down Eli and win this game. Not going to happen.

A team with a defense ranked this bad overall is not going to win the Super bowl. It can't happen and it won't happen and are you ready for the reason why?

The Patriots ended the season ranked 31st defensively against a schedule which saw them face just 3 playoff teams all year long....Denver, Pittsburgh and Giants.

So against a bunch of losing teams you still ranked almost dead last defensively in the NFL. Juggle that around in your head for a minute, you have time.

Big deal the Patriots have won 10 games in a row since losing that regular season matchup back in early November to the Giants.

Allow me to take a moment in listing for you the 10 QB's the 31st ranked New England defense has faced leading up to this game Sunday:

Mark Sanchez, Tyler Palko, Vince Young, Dan Orlovsky, Rex Grossman, Tim Tebow, Matt Moore, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tim Tebow and Joe Flacco.

Just digest those guys for a moment. There isn't one guy above there that can carry Eli's jock right now. Not one.

Now, I take it one step further for you. Throw Tebow out of the mix and feast your eyes on the numbers these guys put up on this Patriots defense:

Sanchez 20 of 39 for 306 yards, Palko 24 of 37 for 230 yards, Young 26 of 48 for 400 yards, Orlovsky 30 of 37 for 353 yards, Grossman 19 of 32 for 252 yards, Moore 16 of 32 for 281 yards and Fitzpatrick 29 of 46 for 307 yards.

And as I said above, Flacco in the playoff game 2 weeks ago went 22 of 36 for 306 yards.

Come on now. Vince Young goes for 400 yards! Orlovsky 353! Sanchez 306! You want to trust your money with that defense be my guest. NOT ME!

It wouldn't surprise me in the least if Eli goes for over 400 yards on Sunday. Wouldn't surprise me in the least.

So I say to you again, against teams and QB's that aren't even close to Eli Manning, your defense, ranking almost dead last made some of these guys look like all-pro's.

Can you imagine if the Patriots had seen Aaron Rogers or Drew Brees?

Folks, both teams are going to score in this game, hence the reason I have come with a free play on the Over.

The difference in this game will be the Giants defense and their ability to get the stops necessary to deliver the win.

Tom Brady is a good NFL quarterback and if given time to throw, he becomes great., just like Elway, Montana, Aikman, all the greats.

You get pressure on him, as the Giants did in 2007 and the Ravens did 2 weeks ago, Brady gets rattled just like any other QB in the NFL.

How does 22 of 36 with 2 INT's at home against the Ravens suit you?

The key to the game in 07 was the fact the Giants were able to get pressure on Brady with their front four thus allowing them to drop 7 into coverage. They will be able to do that again.

They beat them in New England earlier this year because they were the better team and they will beat them indoors in Indy because they are the better team.

They beat the Patriots the first time without Hicks and Bradshaw, two huge key components in this G'men offense and they are back playing well.

I've always said the Patriots and Belichick are an overhyped machine and I also said Brady and Belichick will never win another super bowl together.

You look at their Super bowl wins and they pulled off the upset of the Rams while getting taken to OT by Jake Delhomme and the Panthers and allowed a backdoor to the Eagles on a poor performance by McNabb.

They have not been dominant in any Super bowl and they won't be dominate here. They will be dominated.

Lastly, Tom Coughlin and his staff coached circles around Belichick the last Super bowl meeting between these two and he will do it again as he cements his place in Canton, Ohio.

Congratulations to Mr. Couglin, to Eli Manning the MVP and the New York Giants as they bring the hammer down on the Pats legacy in a fantastic Super bowl win.

GIANTS 34 Patriots 24

[poopoo333]

Lang Super Bowl Prop Bets

Coin Toss - Heads

National Anthem Under

Eli Manning (MVP)

First TD Scored - Victor Cruz

[poopoo333]

BEN BURNS
-= TOP PLAY =-
Sport Date Matchup Book Starts
NFL Feb 05 '12
6:30p NY Giants vs New England Patriots

10* Take: New England Patriots -3-110 in 5d
Reason: I'm playing on NEW ENGLAND.

[poopoo333]

DR BOB

BEST BETS
NFL Strong Opinions
NY Giants 23 at NEW ENGLAND 26 UNDER 55.0
05-Feb-2012 3:30PM Pacific

NEW YORK OFFENSE vERSUS NEW ENGLAND DEFENSE
New York’s offense has been good all season and the Giants enter this game averaging 386 yards per game at 6.1 yards per play (not including kneel downs and spiked balls to stop the clock, or the Hail Mary completion against the Packers) against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average attack. Quarterback Eli Manning has had his best season, averaging 7.5 yards per pass play while limiting his interceptions, but the normally effective Giants’ rushing attack was horrible most of the season and averaged just 3.9 ypr. The rushing attack has certainly been better recently and that improvement can be traced back to the season ending injury to left tackle William Beatty, who was injured in week 11 and has missed the last 9 games. David Diehl moved over the left tackle and Kevin Boothe stepped into the lineup starting week 12 (6 games at left guard and 3 at center) and has done a good job in run blocking. The Giants averaged only 3.4 ypr through week 11, but they’ve averaged 4.4 ypr since week 12 (against teams that would allow 4.3 ypr to an average team). I rate the Giants at 0.7 yards per play better than average heading into this game. Most people would assume that Eli Manning would post big numbers against a Patriots’ defense that allowed 282 passing yards per game at 7.0 yards per pass play (to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.3 yppp against an average defensive team), but the secondary playing in this game for the Patriots performed much better than that and was actually quite good. The Patriots started the season allowing a horrendous 8.5 yards per pass play the first 4 weeks of the season, but the secondary improved drastically when James Ihedigbo was inserted into the starting lineup at strong safety in week 5 and Patrick Chung was much more effective at free safety after starting the season at strong safety. The other change was inserting Kyle Arrington at the starting cornerback slot opposite Devin McCourty. The foursome of Ihedigbo, Chung, Arrington and McCourty began starting together in week 5 and that group allowed just 6.3 yards per pass play in the next 4 games to the Jets, Cowboys, Steelers, and Giants – who would combine to average 6.9 yppp against an average pass defense. The Patriots went from epically bad defensively to better than average in those 4 games (5.4 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average stop unit), but Patrick Chung had to sit out the next 7 games due to an injured foot and McCourty also missed two games. The Patriots surrendered 6.9 yppp during that stretch without Chung (to quarterbacks that would combine to average 5.9 yppp). Chung returned in week 17 and the Patriots have allowed just 5.8 yppp and 5.1 yppl in 3 games with their starting secondary back together. In 7 games in which their current starting has played together the Patriots have allowed just 6.1 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.4 yppp against an average defense - and the Patriots would still be 0.1 yppp even after taking out the bad stats of Broncos’ quarterback Tim Tebow, who is not really representative of an NFL starting quarterback. The run defense is also better now than it was over the course of the season (4.6 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.5 ypr), as the better secondary allows play calling that can concentrate more on stopping the run. The Patriots allowed just 3.7 ypr in both playoffs games to two very good running teams (Denver and Baltimore) and they’ve allowed just 4.0 ypr in 7 games with their starting secondary all playing (to teams that would average 4.4 ypr against an average defense). I actually give some of the credit for that difference in run defense to having their linebacking corps back healthy after Brandon Spikes missed weeks 10 through 16, which were also the weeks that Patrick Chung was out (New England gave up 5.0 ypr in those 7 games). Whether it’s having Chung back or Spikes back that has made the difference in the run defense is uncertain but it’s pretty clear that the Patriots run defense is better now than it was over the course of the season. Overall, the Patriots’ defense has been 0.3 yards per play better than average in 7 games with their starting defensive secondary and Spikes all playing – so they are much better than their horrible season stats suggest (6.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl). After adjusting for the Giants’ improved rushing attack with their current offensive line and for the Patriots’ improved defense with their current personnel I get a projection of 414 yards at 6.1 yppl for the Giants in this game.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE VERSUS NEW YORK DEFENSE
The Patriots’ offense has averaged 32.3 points on 428 yards at 6.5 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) with a slightly worse than average rushing attack (4.2 ypr against teams that would allow 4.4 ypr) and a very good pass attack that has averaged 8.0 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp). The pass attack was a little different this season, aside from Wes Welker catching 122 balls, as tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez combined for 169 receptions for 2237 yards and 24 touchdowns in the regular season. Gronkowski was particularly impressive with his 10.7 yards per pass thrown to him average, which is outrageous for a tight end (Welker averaged 9.1 ypa and Hernandez averaged 8.1 ypa). Gronkowski hasn’t been able to practice due to a high ankle sprain he suffered last week but he is expected to play. The question is how effective he will be, as Gronkowski averaged 7.3 yards after the catch per reception – a number that would probably go down given his injury. If I assume that Gronkowski loses a good portion of those yards after catch due to his ankle injury (let’s say he averages 11.5 yards per catch like Hernandez does rather than his 14.7 ypc) then the pass attack would suffer a 0.4 yards per pass play drop, which would equate to about 1.3 points. If Gronkowski didn’t play at all then I would expect Tom Brady to average 0.5 yards per pass play less than expected, which is worth 1.7 points. It’s possible that Gronkowski won’t be affected and will play at his normal high level but I’ve decided to take off 0.2 yards per pass play due to his injury. Like the Patriots, the Giants’ defense is also better now than their season stats suggest, as they’ve only had their defensive line together for 9 games and they played much better in those games. Justin Tuck missed weeks 4 through 6 and week 14 while Osi Umenyiora missed weeks 1 through 3 and 13 through 16. In 9 games with both Tuck and Umenyiora joining Jason Pierre-Paul and tackles Linval Joseph and Chris Canty the Giants have been able to put pressure on the opposing passer with just their defensive line, which allows them to put an extra man or two in pass coverage. That has certainly helped, as the Giants have allowed just 6.1 yards per pass play in those 9 games despite facing quarterbacks that would combine to allow 7.1 yppp against an average defense. The run defense hasn’t been as good since the Giants have played a lot with 3 or 4 defensive ends on the line with one or zero tackles, but overall the Giants’ defense is been 0.45 yppl better than average defensively with their current personnel, which is considerably better than their season rating of 0.13 yppp better than average. The Giants’ defense is also particularly troubling for the style of offense that the Patriots like to play. With the ability to rush the passer effectively with their 4 down linemen the Giants can play more man-to-man coverage with safety help over the top and Tom Brady tends to have more trouble throwing against man coverage than he does against a zone defense, which he routinely picks apart since his receivers (Wes Welker in particular) are very good at finding holes in the zone. The Patriots have given teams problems this season with their two tight ends, who are often split out wide to create mismatches in open space for big plays down the field, but the Patriots were forced to bring their tight ends in tighter to help in pass protection when they faced the Giants in week 9, which kept them from getting down the field for big plays. In that game the Patriots’ tight ends caught 12 balls, which is about normal, but they averaged only 11.3 yards per catch rather than the 13.2 ypc they averaged for the season. New England averaged just 6.5 yards per pass play and 5.8 yppl in that 20-24 home loss to the Giants, which were below expectations based on statistical projections. The Giants’ pass rushers also match up well against a non-running quarterback like Brady, as it allows them to use both inside and outside pass rush moves against opposing linemen since they aren’t as worried about containing Brady in the pocket. Playing man to man coverage can make it easier for quarterbacks to take off and run for big yardage, as Aaron Rodgers did a few weeks ago (he ran for 66 yards on 7 runs while escaping the pass rush in the Divisional round of the playoffs), but Brady rarely runs and isn’t likely to run as effectively if he does run when the opportunity arises. If the Patriots’ tight ends are forced to help out in pass protection then that is certainly to the benefit of the Giants since the tight ends are a huge part of the passing game for New England.
After adjusting a bit for Gronkowski’s injury and for the improvement in the Giants’ defense with their defensive linemen all healthy, I project 401 total yards at 5.7 yppl for New England in this game.

SIDE PREDICTION
Overall the Giants are expected to out-gain the Patriots and have an edge of 6.1 yppl to 5.7 yppl but New England has a 1.1 points edge in special teams and should have an edge in penalties (the Pats are +2.1 in penalty margin per game while the Giants are +0.5). My math model would favor New England by just 0.4 points (with a total of 54.6 points) based purely on the projected statistics and special teams, but the Patriots have a history of out-playing their statistics (especially on defense) while the Giants tend to under-perform their statistical projections (mostly on offense). In fact, this season the Patriots’ statistics would project a scoring margin of +8.1 points but the Pats are +11.6 in average scoring margin. The Giants, meanwhile, would be projected to out-score their opponents by 4.4 points per game based on their statistics, but they have a scoring margin of just +1.9 points. Some of that difference is simply due to variance, but New England has out-scored their statistical projections by 1.3 points per game with Tom Brady at quarterback over many years while the Giants have under-performed their statistical projections by 1.2 points per game with Tom Coughlin as coach and Eli Manning at quarterback. If I apply those numbers to that statistical math projection, which is certainly reasonable, then I get New England by 2.9 points in this game. I also took a look at the compensated scoring model and I got similar results. New England’s offense has averaged 32.3 points against teams that combine to allow 22.7 points per game, which is +9.6 points. The Giants’ defense in 9 games with all their defensive linemen healthy allowed 20.3 points against mostly high scoring teams that would combine to average 26.8 points per game, so the Giants’ current defense has been 6.5 points better than average. New York’s offense has averaged 25.0 points against teams that combine to allow 21.4 points, so the Giants’ offense has been 3.6 points better than average. The Patriots’ defense has allowed just 19.6 points per game in 7 games with their starting secondary and LB Spikes playing, to teams that combine to average 22.6 points – so the Patriots’ current defense has been 3.0 points better than average. If you add it all up then you have the Patriots at 12.6 points better than average (+9.6 on offense and +3.0 on defense) and the Giants at +10.1 points (+3.6 on offense and +6.5 points on defense). That’s a difference of 2.5 points in favor of the Patriots, but the Giants are a bit better offensively with their improved rushing attack and the Pats are probably going to be a bit worse with the Gronkowski at less than 100%, which would lead to an adjusted prediction of Patriots by 1 ½ points using the compensated scoring model. My other math model, which takes scoring efficiency into account, favors the Patriots 3 ½ points in this game after making all the adjustments. It appears the fair line on this game is anywhere between 1 ½ and 3 ½ points, so a line of 2 ½ points seems to be fair and doesn’t supply us with any value. As you can see, picking the side in this game is a bit tough to do given that the math is so close to the actual spread and the severity of Gronkowski’s injury is in question. The Super Bowl trends are also going both ways, as Super Bowl teams with revenge (the Patriots) are 20-9-2 ATS over the years (same season or not same season revenge) while teams on a 3 game spread win streak or more (the Giants) are 11-3-2 ATS against teams that are not on a 3 game spread win streak. Also, the team with the better straight up win-loss percentage (the Pats) are 0-8 ATS the last 8 years in the Super Bowl (although about 50% going back to 1970). I have no opinion on the side in this game.

OVER/UNDER
While the side doesn’t offer any value the Under looks like a pretty good bet. My math model based purely on the projected statistics would project 54 ½ total points, but New England’s defense has always allowed considerably fewer points than their statistics would project and that was certainly the case this season. New England has allowed just 20.7 points per game (22.3 is the league average) despite giving up an average of 400 yards at 6.0 yards per play and the Patriots average of 53.0 total points per game is 4.6 points lower than what their statistics would project. The Giants also tend to play lower scoring games than their stats project, as they’ve averaged 48.1 total points, which is 3.0 points per game lower than their statistical projection. Using a compensated scoring model would also lead to an under projection in this game. The Patriots averaged 53.0 total points per game against a schedule of teams that combine to average 44.0 points, so their games were 9.0 points higher than average. New York has averaged 48.1 total points per game against a schedule of teams that combine to average 45.4 total points, so the Giants’ games are 2.7 points higher scoring than average. The league average is 44.6 points but the median total points scored is 1 point lower than the average points, which gives us 43.6 total points if two average scoring teams were to play each other. New England’s games were 9.0 points higher scoring than average and the Giants’ games were +2.7 points, so that would give us a non-adjusted prediction of 55.3 points (43.6 + 9.0 + 2.7), which is what the Super Bowl total is based on. However, The Giants’ defense is better than their season numbers and the Patriots’ defense is much better than their season numbers. I also have to adjust for the Giants’ rushing attack being better than their season numbers and for the small reduction in the Patriots’ offensive pass rating due to Gronkowski’s injured ankle that will have him less than 100% if he does play. The adjustments are worth -6.2 points, which would result in the compensated adjusted scoring model projecting just 49 total points. Going back to the compensated scoring model using only the defensive numbers for each team with their current defensive personnel would result in an average lower prediction. As discussed above, the Patriots’ offense was 9.6 points better than average and their defense with their current personnel has been 3.0 points better than average while the Giants’ offense has been 3.6 points better than average while their current defense has been 6.5 points better than average. A projected total based on that, with 43.6 points as the norm, would be 43.6 + 9.6 (NE offense) – 3.0 (NE defense) + 3.6 (NYG off) -6.5 (NYG def), which equals 47.3 points. It appears as if the Giants and Patriots’ defensive improvements are not fully factored into the posted total on this game and my projections don’t take into account what I think is a negative match-up for the Patriots’ offense against the Giants’ style of defense, or the possibility that Gronkowski’s injury could affect him more than expected. The last 5 Super Bowls with a total of 48 points or higher have all gone Under the total and I’ll consider the UNDER (55) a Strong Opinion in this game.

PROPOSITIONS
Here are some propositions that I think offer some value.

QUARTERBACK PASSING YARDS
Brady is favored by 10 ½ yards over Manning and my math model projects the Giants with 40 more passing yards. Manning +10 ½ yards over Brady is a Strong Opinion. If you don’t have that prop then you can play Brady under 320 ½ passing yards.

HIGHEST SCORING HALF AND TOTAL
A fellow handicapping friend tipped me off that Super Bowl scoring trends are drastically different from regular season scoring patterns, when the 1st half generally has more scoring and the 2nd quarter is the highest scoring quarter. That has not been the case in the Super Bowl, as the second half has been higher scoring and the 4th quarter is the highest scoring quarter. Perhaps the reason for that difference is that the team leading the game is more likely to continue to play to score in a Super Bowl than in a regular season game when less is at stake. The trailing team also tends to take more chances and become more aggressive late in a Super Bowl, which can lead to big plays by the offense and the defense. Whatever the reason, the second half has been higher scoring in 28 of 45 Super Bowls (25 of the last 37), including 11 of the last 13. Many books offer a proposition on which half will be higher scoring and the current line is 2nd half to be higher scoring at -125 odds (equal scoring is a push) or 2nd half -1/2 a point at -115 odds. The second half to be higher scoring is a Strong Opinion.

THE ODDS FOR THE HIGHEST SCORING TOTAL ARE:
1st quarter +450
2nd quarter -125
3rd quarter +450
4th quarter +175
2 or more quarters tied +450

The 2nd quarter is favored to be the highest scoring quarter because that’s the way it is in the regular season, but the 2nd quarter has not been the highest scoring quarter since 1991, a span of 20 straight Superbowls without being the highest scoring quarter. The 4th quarter has been the highest scoring quarter in 9 of the last 13 Super Bowls and 18 of the last 37 (with a 19th year tying for highest scoring). At +175 odds, playing the 4th quarter as the highest scoring quarter appears to be a pretty good play. the 4th quarter to be the highest scoring quarter is a Strong Opinion

[poopoo333]

Big Al

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the NY Giants + the points over New England.* The New York Giants have had a most impressive run to the Super Bowl.* They started off at home in the Meadowlands, and completely shut down Atlanta, winning the game 24-2.* That was impressive enough.* But then New York went on the road and won two games at venues in which the home team rarely loses.* New York defeated a Green Bay team in Lambeau which had won 19 of its previous 20 home games (going 15-4-1 ATS).* And then it went into Candlestick, and upset the 49ers, who had won 10 of their last 11 home games (10-0-1 ATS).* In comparison, New England's path the to Super Bowl was a cakewalk.* It beat a Denver team that had no business being in the post-season.* And then it won (but failed to cover) against a good, but flawed, Baltimore team.* The Patriots didn't just have an easy road in the playoffs; they also had an easy regular season schedule to set them up for the #1 seed in the AFC.* But when they played a good team in the regular season, they lost every time.* As I mentioned in my analysis of the Ravens/Patriots match, New England played 3 regular season games, from Game 3 forward, against .700 (or better) competition.* And all resulted in SU/ATS losses.* Throw in their last game against Baltimore, and that's 0-4 vs. .700 (or better) foes this year after the 2nd week of the season.* Admittedly, the New York Giants' win percentage isn't .700 (it's .631), but New York is certainly PLAYING LIKE a .700 team right now, and the fact remains that New England hasn't been able to cover the spread this season vs. the league's best teams.* Indeed, one of New England's losses came earlier this year to this very same New York Giant squad, and that game was at Foxborough where the Patriots were a 9.5 point favorite.* Yet they still lost outright, 24-20.* New York's been a tremendous team away from home over the years, and has covered 34 of 49 since December 10, 2006, including 24-6 off a SU win, and then 10-0 ATS off a win, if it was at Game 12 of the season forward.* And since 1994, Super Bowl teams off back to back road games to reach the Championship game are a "perfect" 6-0-1 ATS.* Take New York.* Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.


At 6:30 pm, on Sunday, Feb. 5, our selection is on the Patriots + Giants to go 'over' the total, as it falls into two technical Totals systems of mine that have won 73 and 63 percent in the playoffs.* It's no secret that the NFL rules were changed before the start of the 2010 season and it's made it tougher for the stop units to defend the field.* Defensive players can't touch the QB, and they can't be physical with wide receivers.* As a result, we've seen an explosion in scoring, capped off this season by not 1, not 2, but 3 quarterbacks eclipsing Dan Marino's season mark of 5084 passing yards.* One of those three QBs to break the record was New England's Tom Brady (the others were Matt Stafford and Drew Brees).* The upshot is that a significant number of games are going 'over' the total -- and especially if a team has a premier quarterback who can take advantage of the relaxed rules.* Indeed, since the rule changes, New England has gone 'over' the total 26 of 35 games (and 28 of 37 if you go back to Jan 3, 2010)!* They went 'over' 12 of 18 games this season, and 14 of 17 games last year.* It's tough to fade those numbers.* Now, New York doesn't have a QB in Brady's class, but Manning is still a quality signal caller.* And New York's gone 'over' the total in 19 of its 35 games the past two years, including 4 of 5 when the line has been 49 or higher.* Super Bowls are generally higher-scoring, and 18 of the past 31 have gone 'over' the total, including 6 of 9 competitively-priced games with pointspreads less than 4 points.* Take the Patriots + Giants 'over' the total.* Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.


At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Rangers over the Philadelphia Flyers.* It's Super Bowl Sunday and so all four games on the NHL ledger today are afternoon affairs with both Super Bowl cities (Boston and New York) represented on the ice as well as on the gridiron later.* The Bruins must travel to Washington to face the Capitals, but the Rangers get to play at home against their rivals to the south and in fact this is a rematch of the very good Bridgestone Winter Classic game a little more than a month ago at Citizens Bank Ballpark in Philadelphia.* The Rangers won that game by a 3-2 margin, making it five in a row over the Flyers, and New York has outscored Philly by a total of 19-6 in those five meetings.* Adding to Philly's problems today is the fact that the Flyers were somewhat embarrassed at home on Saturday when the Devils scored three goals in each of the first two periods to take a 6-0 lead over Philadelphia before the Flyers got four goals back in the third but they still suffered one of their worst losses of the season, 6-4.* All six goals were scored with Sergei Bobrovsky in net before the Flyers pulled Bobrovsky at the halfway point of the game and replaced him with Ilya Bryzgalov who held the Devils scoreless the rest of the way.* But the Devils went into a defensive shell at that point and only put eight shots on Bryzgalov while Bobrovsky was peppered with 23 in just over 28 minutes.* Madison Square Garden has proven to be one of the toughest places for opposing teams this season as the Rangers' seven total home losses (five in regulation) is the best such number in the Eastern Conference and tied for the second lowest number of home losses in the NHL.* Take the Rangers.* As always, good luck...Al McMordie.


At 1 pm, our selection is on the Michigan State Spartans minus the points over Michigan.* Last month, the Wolverines bested Tom Izzo's men in Ann Arbor, 60-59, and that victory extended U-M's win streak over MSU to 3 games.* But I look for the Spartans to avenge that defeat, and blow out Michigan here in East Lansing, as MSU has been a terrific home favorite, priced from -4 to -10.5 points.* Since 1997, Sparty is 65-3 SU and 53-14-1 ATS in this situation.* Also, Michigan St. is a perfect 11-0 ATS as a home favorite of more than 3 points, when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, if it is well-rested (with at least 3 days' of rest).* Lay the points with MSU.* Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

[iavila]

Wayne Allyn Root

NO LIMIT GIANTS
BILLIONAIRES OVER 55

MILLIONAIRES
TOP 10 SUPER BOWL PROPS

1) Team to score 1st will win the game.....NO +145
2) Will there be a successful 2 pt conversion?..YES +400
3) Will there be any quarter scoreless?..YES +270
4) Will Mario Manningham score a touchdown?.YES +190
5) Total receiving yards by Wes Welker at 75.5..UNDER -110
6) Exact final score will be between 61-65..7/1
7) Will New England convert a 4th down attempt?.YES +130
8) Margin of victory: NY Giants will win between 5-8 pts .7/1
9) Eli Manning passing yards: 301--320...8/1
10) double result: 1st half tied BUT NY Giants win game.10-1

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer

Road Warrior Michigan