2/11/12

[poopoo333]

Note:

ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[poopoo333]

Brandon Lang


75 Dime Play

Michigan State +8.5 over Ohio State


Free Pick: North Texas

[Mr. IWS]

DR BOB

2 Star Selection
Dayton (-7) over FORDHAM
11-Feb-12 10:05 AM Pacific
Dayton has lost 4 consecutive games and that losing skid will keep the Flyers from taking a bad Fordham team lightly. Dayton applies to a 39-6 ATS subset of a 90-43-1 ATS road favorite bounce-back situation and the Flyers also apply to a 191-90-6 ATS big road favorite situation. Fordham is just 4-18-1 ATS in conference games when not getting at least 20 points in two seasons under coach Tom Pecora, so I certainly don’t mind fading the Rams against a team that should come to play. My ratings favor Dayton by 7 ½ points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take Dayton in a 2-Star Best Bet at -8 or less.

Play Strength: 2-Stars at -8 or less.

3 Star Selection
Virginia (+10) over NORTH CAROLINA
11-Feb-12 10:05 AM Pacific
North Carolina’s defense hasn’t been as good without injured defensive ace Dexter Strickland, who averaged 1.3 steals per game, and the Tarheels have now failed to cover the spread in 4 consecutive games while their defensive efficiency without Strickland is 0.03 points per possession higher than their season rating (that equates to about 2 points). Virginia is also without a top defender, as C Assane Sene is still out, but the Cavaliers’ slow pace suits them well against a team like North Carolina and it’s tough to beat the Cavs by a lot of points. I had Virginia as a Best Bet in their 3 point loss as an 11 point dog at Duke earlier this season and the Cavs also lost by just 3 points at Florida State. Virginia has covered the spread 11 consecutive times as a road underdog and the Cavaliers apply to a very good 95-25-3 ATS big road underdog situation that plays on slow paced teams. North Carolina, meanwhile, applies to a negative 40-112-4 ATS situation that is based on their loss to Duke, which may still be on their minds. Those two angles are both very strong and independent of each other (2-0 ATS for the road dog when both apply with the covering margins by 13 and 11 ½ points), so this is a very good spot for Virginia. My ratings favor North Carolina by only 8 points and I’ll take Virginia in a 3-Star Best Bet at +9 points or more and for 2-Stars down to +8 points.

Play Strength: 3-Stars at +9 or more, 2-Stars down to +8.

2 Star Selection
PENN STATE (-2 ½) over Nebraska
11-Feb-12 10:05 AM Pacific
Penn State is offensively challenged, but the Nebraska has really struggled defensively this season in 7 games without defensive presence Jorge Brian Diaz, who averaged 1.9 blocks per game but is now out for the season. Nebraska allowed just 41.4% shooting with Diaz playing, but the Cornhuskers have allowed opponents to make 51.3% of their shots in 7 games that Diaz has missed and they’re 0-6 ATS in those games (would be 0-7 ATS if there were a line on their 14 point home win against lowly Alcorn State). Penn State is a better team right now than Nebraska is without Diaz and my ratings conservatively favor the Nittany Lions by 6 ½ points. I’ll take Penn State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less.

Play Strength: 2-Stars at -3 or less.

3 Star Selection
Illinois Chicago (+2) over LOYOLA CHICAGO
11-Feb-12 11:00 AM Pacific
Loyola Chicago is 0-13 straight up in Horizon League play and I see the Ramblers getting their first win today given that they apply to a very negative 4-42 ATS situation that has worked for me all 3 times so for this season. My ratings make this game a pick and I’d favor Illinois Chicago if Loyola’s top player Ben Avenkamp has to sit out a 3rd straight game with a concussion. The only issue I have is that Illinois-Chicago hasn’t won a road game. But, the Flames also haven’t visited any team nearly as bad as Loyola. I’ll take Illinois-Chicago in a 3-Star Best Bet at +2 or more and for 2-Stars down to -1.

Play Strength: 3-Stars at +2 or more, 2-Stars down to -1.

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Millionaire ohio st

Pinnacle Vanderbilt

[Mr. IWS]

ben burns
10* west virginia
10* gonzaga
10* twolves
10* bobcats
10* nets

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al
Vanderbuilt
St Joseph
Fla Int
Austin Peay