2-16-12

[Mr. IWS]

Note:

ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

Buffalo +148 over PHILADELPHIA

The Flyers have one win in their past six games. They allowed five goals or more in three of those losses and four goals in one other. Philadelphia's road record (18-9-2) is much better than its home record (13-9-5) and when you throw in the long list of injuries to key players, you just can't lay this much weight with them right now. Then we have Ryan Miller against either Ilya Bryzgalov or Sergei Bobrovsky. Whomever the Flyers decide to go with, it's not going to favor them, as both their goaltenders are a soft goal waiting to happen. The Sabres and Flyers have played twice in Buffalo this season. Philly won them both by a single goal with one occuring in OT. Buffalo came out of the all-star break blazing. They've cooled off with back-to-back losses but there's no reason they can't get back on track here. When you consider Philly's injury woes, goaltending issues, current form and that they have the Penguins on deck on Saturday, the Sabres offer up the true value in this contest. Play: Buffalo +148 (Risking 2 units).

Winnipeg +105 over MINNESOTA

Make a list of the 30 teams in the NHL. Now grade them 1 through 30 on which you would trust as a favorite all the way to the team you would least trust. Number 30 on just about everyone's list shouyld be the Minnesota Wild. The Wild has dropped six straight. They scored one goal in five of those six games and two goals in the other. That's seven goals in their past six games. Minnesota has five wins in its last 26 games. In 15 of those they scored one goal or less. In terms of futility, the NHL has not seen a team this offensively challenged in a long, long time. The Jets come in here healthy and with four wins in their last eight. They've won three of their past five on the road with victories in Philly, Washington and Tampa. The Jets are coming off back-to-back losses in Pittsburgh and Long Island but deserved a better fate against the Islanders. The Jets are in jeopardy of falling out of this thing, as they now sit six points out of the final playoff spot and seven points behind Florida for the division lead. This is a game they need in the worst way. Win or lose, expect a strong effort from this guest against the most beatable team in the NHL right now. Play: Winnipeg +105 (Risking 2 units).

Calgary +114 over DALLAS

Dallas has two wins over its last six games. Those two wins came against Columbus and Minnesota. The Stars have four wins in their past 14 games and the other two wins over that span both came against the Ducks. Frankly, there's absolutely nothing appealing about laying juice with Dallas. Its goaltending is shaky just about every game, they're offensively challenged and it sure doesn't help that the arena is half empty. Meanwhile, the Flames have found a winning formula. They've picked up points in six straight with four wins and two OT losses. So, while the Stars have have beaten the Jackets and Wild, Calgary's last four wins have come against Chicago, San Jose, Vancouver and Toronto. Getting Alex Tanguay back has been a huge boost for the Flames offense and they're now just a point behind the Coyotes for the final playoff spot. That playoff push continues here. Play: Calgary +114 (Risking 2 units).

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers CBB

West Virginia +135 over PITTSBURGH Pinnacle
When the Panthers recently beat the Mountaineers in Morgantown, it came on the heels of that heart-breaking loss WVU suffered against Syracuse. In other words, it was a tough loss to swallow and the Mountaineers have not recovered since. They've now lost two in a row and three of four with only win since that day coming in OT against Providence. It's time to put that all behind them now and get back to the business at hand. West Virginia has to be considered a bubble team right now. They need big wins on the road and this is one that can help to make a case for them if it should come down to that. Bog Huggins is a master at getting the most out of his players in situations just like this one. They'll play a Panther squad that has dropped two straight and that is not better than they are. Expect the Mountaineers to shake off this bad run and completely focus in this crucial game. Of course they can win. Play: West Virginia +135 (Risking 2 units).

[Mr. IWS]

FantasySportsGametime

Thursday Hockey Plays

Play St. Louis -220 over NY Islanders TOP PLAY
Play Philadelphia -170 over Buffalo

[Mr. IWS]

VIKING SPORTS
NHL: Buffalo-Philadelphia OVER 5.5

[Mr. IWS]

Arlon Sports

Troy

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott Sports

TOP PLAYS

4 UNIT PLAY

Arizona -2.5 over WASHINGTON STATE: The Cats are rolling right now as they come winners of in 5 of their last 6 games, which includes a 24 point home win over Wazzu back in January and BB road wins over Cal and Stanford. Arizona has been playing some really good defense of late as they have allowed just 60.8 ppg on 39.9% shooting in their last 5 games. Arizona has had a really good time within the Pac 12 as they are 9-4 and have held those opponents to just 59.5 ppg on 39.1 % shooting, while scoring 68.3 ppg, which creates an +8.8 scoring margin. Washington State has not been that great in the conference as they are just 5-8 and have been outscored by 3.4 ppg in those games. They have played well at home this year, where they are 9-2 and have scored 75 ppg, but in their last 2 at home they are just 1-1 and have scored just 60 ppg in the two games. The Cougars are allowing 13 ppg more in conference play than the Cats and i feel that is where the game will be won, with defense. Arizona is playing much better than the Cougars right now and they should walk away with a solid win here. KEY TRENDS--- ARIZONA is 16-5 ATS in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons, while WASHINGTON ST is 6-17 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.

3 UNIT PLAYS

MICHIGAN STATE -5.5 over Wisconsin: When this line came out last night i jumped on it as I felt the Spartans should have been favored by 8+ in this one. Sure the Badgers can play excellent defense, but this team just can't score enough to think they have a chance at keeping it close vs a very good Spartans team. Wisconsin is one of the better defensive teams in the nation as they have allowed just 50.3 ppg overall and 55.6 ppg on the road, but their defensive play isn't in question here. We know they can defense, but this team just can't score. The Badgers come in averaging just 59.2 ppg on 39.1 % shooting overall and 29.% shooting from beyond the arc in their last 5 games, while in their Big 10 road games (Regulation Only) they have averaged just 55.6 ppg. Now here is where it gets really bad for the Badgers. The Spartans have been playing better defense than them of late. Sparty comes in allowing just 50.6 ppg on a mere 35% shooting in their last 5 games and that includes allowing just 48 points on 26% shooting to a very good Ohio State offense in their last game. The Buckeyes average 70+ ppg on the year so what will this Spartans defense do to the pathetic Badgers attack tonight? MSU is 6-0 in Big 10 home games and have outscored those opponents by 20 ppg. Sparty averages 79.8 ppg at home, including 77.8 ppg in their Big 10 home games. ok so we know that both teams play great defense, but the Spartans can score on the Badgers, but they Badgers sorry ass offensive play will not come up with nearly enough points to keep this one close.

California/ Oregon Under 140: This has been a bit of a high scoring series over the years, but thanks to some solid defense by both teams, this year will be different. The Cal Bears have allowed just 60 ppg overall on the year and 61.8 within the Pac-12, but at home on the year they have allowed a mere 54.2 ppg, including just 57.6 ppg in the Pac-12 home games. Cal's Pac 12 home games have averaged just 126.3 ppg on the year, while their conference games overall 134.2 ppg. Oregon has been playing average defense this year as they have allowed 66.5 ppg overall and 65.2 ppg in their last 9 conference games, so they too have the ability to keep the scoring down in this one. Both teams have averaged 70+ ppg on the year, but this is in the Bears home court and with the way they play defense at home I just don't see this one getting out of hand. They will control the pace and not look to run with this team. while Oregon will come up with enough stops to keep the Cal offense from piling up too many points. I don't expect either team to hit 70 points in this one.

Florida International/ Ark Little Rock Over 125: Writeup to come. (Added)

OTHER PLAYS

2 UNIT PLAY

DENVER -10 over UL Lafayette:This Denver team is tough at hoe, where they have gone 11-2 and have outscored their opponents by 10.2 ppg, including going 4-1 in the Sun Belt at home, with the 4 wins all coming by at least 13 points. UL Laff is a game ahead of Denver in the Sun Belt standings so this is a huge game for the home team and I expect them to take this game by 13+ points as well.

1 UNIT PLAYS

Vanderbilt -3.5 over OLE MISS: Vanderbilt's scoring tandem has led it to a 7-2 record in January. After a slow 1-2 start to February, the Commodores are poised for another run. Ole Miss could slide into a four-way tie for third place in the league if it picks up the victory. Stopping Holloway is going to be difficult for Vandy, but the Rebels will have even more trouble stopping ******* and Taylor.

NC State/ Duke Over 151.5: Play Over - All teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (DUKE) having won 15 or more of their last 20 games against opponent that has won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. This play is 71-34 the last 5 seasons.

[Mr. IWS]

Alatex
Washington state +3

[Mr. IWS]

Jimmy Boyd

5* 29-0 ATS NCAAB *BEST BET*

San Francisco +5.5


FREE PLAY
1 Unit on New Jersey Nets +8.5
Indiana is really struggling. It has lost 5 in a row, and it's best player, Danny Granger, is dealing with an ankle injury that could keep him out again tonight. It is worth noting that these 5 losses have come by an average of 9.2 points.
The Nets have lost 7 in a row but 4 of those losses have come by 7 points or less. They will be very motivated tonight as well considering they dropped the season's first 2 meetings with Indiana. Keep in mind that they only lost by 7 points in Indiana when these these met last Jan. 31.
The Pacers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 overall, 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games. Also, the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. With these things in mind, I just can't justify laying this many points with Indiana right now.
In addition, plays against home favorites playing 9 or more games in 14 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team, are 31-12 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by an average of 8.3 points but have only won by an average of 3.3. We'll take the points

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas Runner
3* Portland Trailblazers
2* Wisconsin
2* Oregon

[Mr. IWS]

Northcoast freebies

Button 3 Billy Coleman 3* Oregon +11

Button 9 Bily Coleman 3* Phoenix under 5

[Mr. IWS]

David Malinsky

4* NC State / Duke Under 151.5

[Mr. IWS]

Chip Chirimbes

Mississippi +4

[Mr. IWS]

Billy Coleman
4* Vandy
3* Oregon
3* Duke

3* Under Phoenix--NHL

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Rivers
100,000* NC State