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Paul Leiner
100* UNLV +5
50* Florida State +1
100* UNLV +5
50* Florida State +1
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David Banks
Long Beach State 49ers vs. Creighton Blue Jays
Saturday nights BracketBuster marathon closes shop in Omaha, NE where the Creighton Bluejays (22-5, 14-9 ATS) will look to tally a huge scalp against the Long Beach State 49ers (19-6, 12-11 ATS); ESPN2 will be on hand to broadcast the action live starting at 10:00 ET.
The current Big West Conference leading 49ers have been here before on the road and in a hostile venue. At the outset of the season, LBST took its show on the road to face the likes of Pittsburgh, San Diego State, Louisville, Kansas, and North Carolina. They even matched wits with Xavier and Kansas State on neutral courts. So to say this team is ready for what awaits them in Omaha comes as quite the understatement. One thing the 49ers do well is score the basketball (#50 at 74.1 PPG), so look to see them put some points on the board against a Creighton defense thats given up its fair share of points of late. As Casper Ware, Larry Anderson, and T.J. Robinson goes, so do the 49ers with that trio combining to score nearly 60 percent of the 49ers points. As it is, Long Beach State has gone 8-5 SU & 7-6 ATS away from the Walter Pyramid this season.
At one point in time, Creighton was everyones surefire Cinderella to make some noise in the upcoming NCAA Tournament. And why not? Doug McDermott was single-handedly destroying the opposition leading his team to win after win after win. This squad really opened pundits eyes when it toyed with each of its three Big Ten opponents (Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern) on the non-conference slate, and then after losing a shocker to Missouri State to kick off its Missouri Valley schedule, rattled off 11 straight wins (7-4 ATS) which included avenging that loss to the Bears (66-65) in their own house. However since, the Bluejays seemed to have run out of steam falling to the likes of Northern Iowa, Evansville, and Wichita State (home) before taking their aggression out on Southern Illinois by shooting a record breaking 77.5 percent from the field. With only three games left on the regular season slate, a win over the Big West leaders would no doubt improve their March Madness resume.
LBST enters with a 12-game win streak in tow, and will also be looking to post back-to-back 20 win seasons for the first time in almost 40 years. The squad went 4-3 ATS in the seven non-conference games mentioned up above, and covered the closing number three of the five times when dogged. Theyre 4-1 ATS their L/5 out of conference as well as 6-1 ATS their L/7 on the road versus +.600 opposition. Creighton sports a moneymaking 7-1 ATS tally in its L/8 non-conference tussles, but has also gone 4-9-1 ATS the L/14 times it hosted a +.500 visitor. The under is 6-1 in Long Beach States L/7 versus +.600 teams, and also stands 7-3 in the Bluejays L/10 home games versus +.600 opposition.
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Sharky Sports
Drexel/Cleveland State under 120 (-110) for 3 units @ 11 AM
This is an interesting match-up between a very defensive-minded ball club in Drexel on the road against a struggling yet immensely talented Cleveland State team. I think this will be a low-scoring affair for many reasons. First off let’s look at both offenses. Drexel is a lot more comfortable offensively at home and they tend to struggle to score efficiently on the road, only averaging 63 ppg’s away from home for the season. Cleveland State was an offense that was surging at the beginning of the year, but they have been really struggling recently after losing their star player D’Aundre Brown to a groin injury against Valparaiso. In the immediate 2 games after losing Brown, Cleveland State looked extremely stagnant and disorganized on offense, scoring season lows of 41 and 49 back to back against sub-par defenses. Surprisingly, they went on an absolute tear last game offensively scoring a season high 84 shooting 60% from the field and 47% from downtown. I think this makes a let-down very likely, especially if Brown doesn’t play again which is also likely. Therefore, I think both offenses will struggle more than usual. Now, let’s look at defenses as both of these teams are stellar defensively. Drexel really prides itself on hard-nosed man to man defense where they get out on shooters and contest (they are holding opponents to a ridiculously low 27% three point percentage). Cleveland State, especially as of late without the slashing potential of Brown, has really been relying on the three as they shoot over 1/3 of all of their field goals from downtown, and Drexel should make it tough for them to get clean looks. Cleveland State also prides itself on high-pressure defense, as they force an incredible 17.3 turnovers per game. For a team in Drexel that isn’t particularly strong with the ball, Cleveland State can rely on their active hands to get a lot of stops. Overall, I think everything points to a very low-scoring affair in this match-up
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Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
Tulana/ UAB Over 112.5: Neither team is a run and gun team, but with the way the teams have been playing lately this OU line looks rather low. Tulane enters this game with their last 5 games averaging 130 ppg, while their road games on the year have averaged 118.2 ppg. We also note that their Conference games have averaged 126.6 ppg, while their last 4 conference road games have averaged 122.8 ppg. Now UAB's games haven't been high scoring this year, but their numbers across the board are all higher than this total. UAB's Conference games have averaged 117.5 ppg, while their last 5 overall have averaged 120.2 ppg, plus we note that their home games have averaged 126.7 ppg, while their conference home games have averaged 125 ppg, with just 1 of the 6 games putting up less than 120 points. UAB has scored just 64.9 ppg at home, but that number has increased of late as they have averaged a healthy 72.3 ppg. For much of the year Tulane has been solid at the defensive end, allowing just 59.1 ppg overall, but on the road this year they have allowed 62.6 ppg, while in their last 5 games overall they have allowed 68.2 ppg. UAB allowed just 28 points to SMU the other night, but in their previous 5 games they allowed 68.4 ppg, while in their last 3 at home they allowed 67.3 ppg. The Green Wave has had some ugly scoring games on the road and they have averaged just 55.6 ppg away, but even if they hit just that mark we should be golden. With the Way UAB has been playing defense as a hole of late, I expect the Green Wave to hit at least 59 or 60 in this one, while the Blazers should hit the 60 point mark as well. Looking at the numbers above, this game should have an OU line of at least 118 and I will take that value here with a game that should be played in the 120's.
4 UNIT PLAYS
NEW MEXICO -5.5 over UNLV: Google News Play. New Mexico is 21-4 on the year, which is a very impressive record, plus they hold a 1 game lead on UNLV in the Mountain West, yet they are unranked, while the Rebels come in ranked 11th in the country. Plus we can go the revenge rout as well as the Rebels beat new Mexico by 17 points earlier in the year. New Mexico is rolling right now as they have won 6 in a row and have scored 71.2 ppg, while holding opponents to just 50.3 ppg. Now that's domination. The Rebels have been excellent at home on they year where they have gone 11-2 and have outscored opponents by 18.7 ppg. UNLV has struggled on the road of late as they are just 2-3 on the road, since Jan. 14 with its two wins coming in overtime against Boise State and Air Force, both of which are tied for last in the conference standings. We know that both teams can score, but New mexico get a HUGE edge at the defensive end where they are ranked 9th in points allowed (57.7 ppg) and 6th in defensive FG% (37.4 %), while the Rebels are ranked 178th in points allowed (67 ppg) and 74th in defensive FG% (40.9%). UNLV has also allowed 73.9 ppg on the road, while the Lobos have allowed just 55.7 ppg at home. The Lobos are playing much better than the Rebels right now and they have the much better defense, they are at home in front of the National audience, they have revenge on their minds and they wanna show everyone that the wrong team is ranked. Just too many edges for the Rebels to overcome here. New Mexico by 10.
MAINE PK over Marist: Living in Maine I have been waiting all year to make a play involving the Black Bears and this is it. This is a great spot for Maine to pick up a win over a regular lined team. Maine has 3 wins over lined teams this year vs Brown and Rhode island on the road and eastern Illinois at home, plus they have a 9 point loss to Notre Dame on the resume, so they can play with some of these out of conference lined teams. Today they get to face a bad non-conference team as Marist comes in at 10-16 overall and a pathetic 1-12 on the road. the Red Foxes have been outscored by 15.4 ppg on the road and they have been bad at both ends of the floor in this process as they have averaged just 63.4 ppg on 38.1% shooting, while allowing 78.8 ppg on 49% shooting when they take to the road. at home this year Maine has averaged 66.9 ppg on a solid 45.7% shooting, while they have allowed 65.6 ppg on just 42% shooting. This is a Bracketbuster game and while Marist is playing better at te moment their road woes will jump up an bit them in the ass vs a Maine squad that has played pretty well out of conference this year. KEY TREND--- MARIST is 2-10 ATS when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) over the last 3 seasons.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Iona/ Nevada Over 151: Iona loves to push the tempo, especially on their home floor. The Gaels are 6th in shots per game (62.3), while at home they have thrown up 66.4 shots per game. They have scored 87.8 ppg on 50.1% shooting on their home floor this year, with those games averaging 164.4 ppg. Now one could say that alot of that was due to the weak competition they play in the MAAC, and while that is true, we also note that during an early season tourney vs teams that don't usually push the pace (Purdue, W. Mich and Maryland) they had a 3 game set that averaged 171.7 ppg, plus in a home game vs St Joes right after the two teams combined for 203 points (165 in regulation). So you see this team will run with anyone and make them run as well. Nevada is not a running team by any stretch as they have shot the ball just 53 times per game (247th), but they can run if need be. In their last 2 road games vs San Jose State and Hawaii (two teams that are 109th or better in spg) they hoisted up 60 shots in both games and scored an average of 82 ppg in the process. for the year Nevada has scored 70.3 ppg on 45.2% shooting overall, while on the road they have scored 72.7 ppg on 46.4% shooting. What should hel the Wolfpack score even more is a Gaels defense that has allowed 76.4 ppg in their last 5 games overall and 76.6 ppg at home. The Wolfpack has played some good defense this year, as they have allowed 63.5 ppg overall and 66 ppg on the road, but in those two faced paced games they did allow 74.5 ppg and we have seen this year that the Gaels can score on anyone, especially at home. I expect this game in the 160's.
Kansas State/ Baylor Over 135.5: When this game came out last night i played it right away thinking that the line would move and it did as it's now up to 137 in some spots.This has been somewhat of a high scoring series the past few year, as 5 of the last 6 meetings have all seen games where 140+ points were scored, with an average of 151.8 ppg being scored over the 6 games, while in the first game this year we saw 148 points scored. Baylor has scored very well at home this year where they have averaged 78 ppg on 48.5% shooting and will be taking on a KSU team that has allowed 66 ppg on the road and 71.5 ppg in their last 2 away from home. KSU has struggled some to score of late and they do average just 65.7 ppg on the road, but they have averaged 68.4 ppg in their last 5 Big 12 road games and Baylor has allowed 68.6 ppg in their last 8 big 12 games overall. I don't see any reason why the Wildcats can't hit the Upper 60's in this one, while Baylor should be good for a game in the low to mid 70's. This game should hit 140+ with ease. KEY TRENDS--- BAYLOR is 19-5 OVER in home games after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better since 1997, while KANSAS ST is 22-9 OVER in road games in February games since 1997.
2 UNIT PLAY
Memphis/ UTEP Over 131.5: Memphis home games have averaged 134.3 ppg, while their last 5 overall have put up 137.2 ppg. For UTEP their road games have averaged 135 ppg, while their last 5 overall have put up 134 ppg. UTEP is 25-12 OVER in a road game where the total is 130 to 139.5 since 1997, while MEMPHIS is 10-1 OVER after 2 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.
1 UNIT PLAY
Marquette +2.5 over CONNECTICUT: MARQUETTE is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons and 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival since 1997. The Huskies are a different team without Calhoun. Golden Eagle win outright.Comment
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