2-20-12

[Mr. IWS]

Note:

ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers CBB

DePaul +210/+5½ over ST. JOHN'S Pinnacle
Prior to beating UCLA on Saturday by three, the Johnnies' last win was in DePaul by six points on Feb 1. The Blue Demons have lost six of seven and 10 of 11. Their last win was over Rutgers by five points. Why then, is St, John's just a 5½-point favorite over a seemingly reeling and weak club? The reason is that the Johnnies are a weak club too and laying points with teams of this calibre seldom works out well. Besides, the Blue Demons aren't as bad as perceived. They had Louisville on the ropes on Saturday in a game they eventaully lost in OT. They can score, they get solid guard play and they'll face a very erratic St. John's team that is basically down to a six-man rotation. The Blue Demons are a team to watch out for next season, as all those talented sophomores become juniors. In this ESPN featured game, the Blue Demons get a litle redemption and end their funk. Definite upset possibility. Play: DePaul +210 (Risking 1 unit) Play: DePaul +5½ (Risking 1.05 units to win 1)

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers NHL

Ottawa +100 over N.Y. ISLANDERS Pinnacle
1:00 PM EST. For teams in playoff contention, every game from here on out has added significance. The Islanders have a game in hand on the Maple Leafs and two games in hand on the Jets. Those are the two teams they're going to have to leapfrog over to reach the dance and it could happen, as they're just six points behind each. That said, the Islanders are the third lowest scoring team in the league with only the Kings and Jackets having scored less. Over their last seven games, the Islanders have scored two or less five times. There's also the possibility that Evgeni Nabokov may not go, as he recovers from the flu. By contrast, the Senators are one of the highest scoring teams. They've lit the lamp 10 times in their past two games, beating the defensive minded Panthers and Lightning by scores of 4-0 and 6-2 respectively. Ottawa is four points ahead of the Leafs and Jets and could add some much needed distance here. We catch a healthy Sens club at even money, with a spring in their step and well-rested after having five full days rest. Play: Ottawa +100 (Risking 2 units).

[Mr. IWS]

Jimmy Boyd

5* Washington Wizards +5.5 (5 dimes)

4* New Orleans Hornets +11.5 (bovada)
4* Utah Jazz +3.5 (sports interaction)

[Mr. IWS]

David Banks

Baylor Bears vs. Texas Longhorns
The Presidents Day college hoops slate closes out in the Lone Star State for a good ol southern tussle in the Big 12 between the Baylor Bears (22-5, 8-12 ATS) and Texas Longhorns (17-10, 8-13-1 ATS); tip-off from Austin is set to go live on ESPN starting at 9:00 ET.

The Baylor Bears were undefeated in Big 12 play if you took the four games they played against the Missouri Tigers and Kansas Jayhawks out of the equation (0-4, 0-4 ATS). That was until Head Coach Scott Drews kids dropped a heartbreaker at home on Saturday against the Kansas State Wildcats; a team they beat outright as 3.5-point underdogs in their trip to the Little Apple back in early January. The 57-56 outright defeat as 7.5-point chalk dropped the Bears to 9-5 SU within the conference with games still to go against the Horns, Sooners, Red Raiders, and Cyclones; they must come out on top tonight and topple Iowa State in their regular season finale to at the very least guarantee a third place showing in the conference. Baylors won eight of its 10 road games on the year (4-6 ATS) with the pair of losses coming against aforementioned Mizzou and KU.

Texas most recently had its four-game win streak snapped on Saturday in Stillwater where it fell by a 90-78 final count as four-point favorites against the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Like Baylor, the Longhorns possess no major wins over teams ranked higher than them in the Big 12 standings. In fact, UT checks in just 1-6 SU & 3-3-1 ATS versus Iowa State, Missouri, Kansas State, Kansas, and Baylor this season. A win here would be huge for them in the eyes of the selection committee, but even if it occurs, it still wont be enough to guarantee Head Coach Rick Barnes kids an invite to the Big Dance. That said; Texas possesses a player JCovan Brown - of the mold of Kemba Walker from the defending champion UCONN Huskies. If Texas does somehow manage to go to the NCAA Tourney, he could singlehandedly help lead the Horns to a couple upsets. For that possibility to even be remotely possible, the Horns must build upon their 14-2 SU & 4-6-1 ATS records as a host in tonights spot.

Baylor took these teams first meeting of the 2011-12 season in Waco by a 76-71 final tally, but Texas came out the pointspread victor by sticking within the closing seven-point spread. Though the Bears check in a woeful 8-22 ATS versus the L/30 Big 12 opponents theyve faced, theyre 5-2 ATS in these rivals L/7 overall meetings as well as 3-2 SU & ATS the L/5 times they went off the board dogged by four points or less. Texas checks in 4-9-1 ATS over the course of its L/14 home games, but also stands 4-1-1 ATS the L/6 times it battled a +.600 opponent. These in-state rivals have played to the over in eight of their L/11 overall confrontations.
PICK: OVER

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner

100* OVER 194.5 Nets/Knicks

50* Marist +8

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG
NBA 104-76 Season-to-Date +$4350
Game: Memphis at Houston (8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 187 -110

The Houston Rockets have a much different approach than we saw from this team at the end of last season. Houston not only scored 100+ points a lot, over their last 19 games from a year ago they scored 110 or more in 10 of the 19, a mark they achieved just one time the entire season and that was vs. Washington. Memphis has played three straight games where both teams reached the century mark, but those were vs. more up-tempo offenses, and their game prior to that was vs. Memphis where just 176 total points were scored. That performance was more indicative of what we will see here tonight, as the Grizzlies are 9-2 to the UNDER in their last 11 as a road dog. Houston is much different than a year ago, and is now 14-5 to the UNDER in their last 19 home games, and is also 5-0 to the UNDER off no rest. This series has an elongated history of falling shy of the total when playing in Houston, with a 17-5 mark to the UNDER in the last 22 here. Play the UNDER.

[Mr. IWS]

Alatex
15* Utah over 191

[Mr. IWS]

Jimmy the Gent Sports Plays
YTD ytd 67-31 +35.10 units (38-13 run in february)
the daily winning streak finally ended last night (1-2) at 13 days in a row, as bc failed to show any signs of interest in playing in front of a sold out crowd, I should of known better because i know they suck,but thought they would of at least scored in the 60's and they just made it to 50, anyway it was a great run and lets start it over again tonight.
plays for monday 2/20/12 : TEXAS -2 (i will have a total play on this game later, as i am favoring the under 139, but will wait till public jumps on the over to move the line) Baylor is 0-5 SU on "big monday" espn games during the Scott Drew era, and basically as with most peeps thinking this is a must win situation for the longhorns so call me a sucker, im biting on giving up the 2 points.
MARIST / FAIRFIELD UNDER 134 , UCONN-VILLANOVA OVER 138, VILLANOVA +3.5 ,

[Mr. IWS]

Info Plays

7* Golden State Warriors +3

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

NBA
Washington +6 over PHOENIX
The Lakers/Suns game was the last game on the board yesterday. The Lakers closed as a 3½-point choice and all those waiting to close out parlays were stunned to see the Suns score 63 in the first half and lead by 27. Game, set, match. After blowing away the heavily bet Lakers, the Suns now play a team that rarely gets bet and they're just a six-point favorite. One must consider “situational betting” at all times. Phoenix is coming off back-to-back games against the Lakers. They'll play their third game in four days and fifth game in seven days. The Wizards are never featured anywhere. We're not even sure if their games are televised anymore. This is the least talked about team in the Association. However, they're playing much better under new coach, Randy Wittman. JaVale McGee and John Wall are dynamic players that make hi-lite film plays on a regular basis. Nonetheless, it's hard to get too excited about this team until guys such as McGee, Nick Young and Jordan Crawford figure out that a 20-point, 0-assist performance in which they give up 115 points doesn't constitute a "good" night. Randy Wittman is changing that and in this favorable situation, expect a less-than-average Suns team to be semi-interested at best.
Play: Washington +6 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

NEW YORK -9½ over New Jersey
Rarely are we comfortable laying such a big number but this one calls for it. On the surface, the Nets look more appealing taking back these big points than the Knicks do spotting it. We know better. First off, the Knicks are very likely to get back Carmelo Anthony tonight. Tyson Chandler returned yesterday and played 36 minutes. Those are two impact players. Secondly, the Knicks are hot and the Gardens is once again electrifying. When you compile all the positives in New York right now and then match up against these Nets, the task at hand seems difficult at best. The Nets played on Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and now this one. That's three games in consecutive nights and their fifth game since last Wednesday. What makes this assignment even more trying is that all of those games were close with biggest margin of defeat being seven points. Now Melo joins Chandler in playing with the NBA's newest sensation against a team running purely on fumes. Make room on the bandwagon today because we’re purchasing a fare.
Play: New York -9½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

GOLDEN STATE +127 over L.A. Clippers
The NBA opened on Christmas Day with five featured games on television and a huge audience to go with it. One of those games was this matchup, the Clippers at Golden State. The Clip Joint came in as a highly hyped team and a six-point favorite. The entire betting world was on them and they didn't disappoint, blowing out the Warriors by 19. Fast forward to today and not much has changed. The Clippers hype was warranted, as they own one of the best records in the league. The Warriors have dropped three straight and they're just a game ahead of Sacramento for last place in the Pacific. All that being the case, can someone explain why the Clippers are 3-points less of a favourite than they were for the opener? That raises some red flags from our desks. What we know is that the Warriors last three losses were to Portland, Memphis and Oklahoma City. They lost by a point to Memphis and two points to Portland. The games against the Grzzlies and Thunder were on the road. Prior to that, Golden State had won three in a row. Since that opening day defeat, the Warriors are a different team. They have home wins over Chicago, Miami and Portland, not to mention a slew of close calls. The line says they can compete here and we're in total agreement
Play: Golden State +127 (Risking 2 units).

[Mr. IWS]

Hoopsgooroo

cbb
524 Villanova +3.5 @ 7p
530 Marist +8 @ 7p
526 Texas -2 @ 9p
527 DePaul +5.5 @ 9p

nba
504 Knicks -9.5 @ 7:35p
508 Bucks +2.5 @ 8:05p
512 Rockets -3 @ 8:05p
513 Spurs -2.5 @ 9:05p
516 Nuggets -3.5 @ 9:05p
518 Suns -6 @ 9:05p
519 Blazers +4 @ 10:35p
521 Clippers -3 @ 10:35p

[Mr. IWS]

KING CREOLE

2* Under 195.5 - NJ Nets/NY Knicks

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

St John's Depaul Under 152: The first meeting between these teams put up 168 points, but that was on Depaul's home floor and this one will be on the Red Storm's home court, where their games have averaged just 136.9 ppg. Depauls games overall have averaged 150.8 ppg, but their road games have averaged just 142.3 ppg, so you can see the influence they have at pushing the tempo on their home floor. Even though St John's won the game 87-81 in that first meeting, that is not their style of play. They prefer a game in the 60's like their last one (66-63) vs UCLA. The Redmen have scored 68.6 ppg on their home floor, but they are not a great shooting team as they have hit just 43.65% of their shots at home and 42.5 of their shots overall. Purdue has averaged 74.1 ppg overall, but just 68 ppg on the road, plus they don't shoot well on the road as they have hit just 41.6% of their shots away from home. Depaul's defense has been bad both overall and on the road, but I just don't see a St John's team that has averaged just 63 ppg in their last 5 games, putting up anything more than 72 or 73 points in this one. Thois is really too high a line, especially considering how low scoring St John's home games have been this year. I don't expect either team to hit 75 in this one.

3 UNIT PLAY

Texas Southern/ Miss Valley State Under 136: To good defensive teams square off if this SWAC meeting tonight. Ok overall Miss Vall has allowed 70.5 ppg, but this team is 14-0 in the SWAC and have played great defense in those games allowing just 60.9 ppg on 39.9% shooting. The have clamped down even more in their last 5 games allowing just 59.2 ppg on 40.1 % shooting, while also being stingy from long range, allowing just 23.2% during the last 5 games. Taking it a little further we see that they have allowed just 60.2 ppg on 39.5 % shooting at home. That last stat is pretty good to know as the TSU comes in averaging just 55.1 ppg on 38.8% shooting on the road this year. They did put up 84 points in their last road games vs Ark Pine Bluff, but in their previous 5 road conference games they averaged just 62.2 ppg and one of the games went to OT. TSU has had 2 OT games in their last 10 games and if we look at just regulation points we see that this team has allowed just 59.3 ppg in those games, including just 60.6 ppg in their last 6 on the road, so this is a team that can play solid defense as well. They will have a tough time tonight as the Delta Devils come in averaging 73.1 ppg in the SWAC and 73.6 ppg at home, but they do come in having scored just 59 ppg in their last 2 games overall and the first time these teams met they scored just 63 points (regulation) off of TSU. As you can see the defense is there for a low scoring game, plus only one team can really score in this one. The Last time these team met the game went to OT and just 126 points were scored in Regulation. I expect no more than that tonight.

2 UNIT PLAYS

Texas/ Baylor Over 138: Google News Play. The Bears have played solid defense for much of the year, but within the Big 12 they have allowed 67.7 ppg, while on the road that number goes up to 68.7 ppg. Texas is a team that can score on you as they come in averaging 73.9 ppg both overall and at home. Baylor has struggled to score of late as they have failed to score 60+ points in 3 of their last 4 games, but they still are a solid offensive club that has averaged 73.7 ppg overall and 71.6 ppg in the Big 12. Texas has played great defense at home this year (57.7 ppg), but they still allow 67.8 ppg in Big 12 play and they have allowed 77 ppg vs the 6 ranked teams they have faced this year. Both of these teams have the ability to hit 70 points in this, plus with this game being an expected close game we could have FT's at the end that will help as well. This is a huge game for both teams so I don't expect them to hold anything back as this one hits 140+ with ease.


UConn/ Villanova Over 137: The Cats have hit 70 points in 8 of their last 9 games, while UConn has allowed 80+ points in both of their last 2 road games. A weak Huskies offense should have a good showing vs a Villanova squad that has allowed 76.6 ppg in their last 10 games. I expect this one in the 140's.

4 UNIT PLAY

Washington/ Phoenix Under 202.5: The Wizards have had a couple of really high scoring games on this trip, but really how much will the Suns have in the tank to run and gun after back to back games vs the Lakers. Lost year you could expect Phoenix home games to hit 200+ points almost every night, but this year that has happened just 3 times and one of those game hit right at 200. I just see a couple tired teams playing a slower game tonight. Mid 190's at best.

3 UNIT PLAYS

LA Clippers -2.5 over GOLDEN STATE: The Clipps lost a tough OT game at home to the Spurs in their last game, but prior to that this team had won 4 of their last 5 and have really played well on e defense allowing just 82.8 ppg in those previous 5 games. The Warriors have averaged 99.9 ppg at home but they don't play great defense, allowing 99 pg at home. The Clippers need to get back on track after their tough loss and behind their tough defensive play they should get it vs a Warrior team that has lost 3 in a row.


New Orleans/ Oklahoma City Over 188: New Orleans has played great defense of late, but the thunder has averaged 105.2 ppg at home and they have hit 10o+ points in 7 of their last 8 games. New Orleans struggles to score, but the Thunder are not a great defensive team as they have allowed 96.5 ppg overall and 94.4 ppg at home. OKC should hit 100+, while the Hornets should be good for about 90.

2 UNIT PLAY

Atlanta/Chicago Over 181: Play Over - Home teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (CHICAGO) - after scoring 90 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 175 points or less. This play is 26-8 the last 5 seasons.

1 UNIT PLAY

New York/ New Jersey Over 195.5: NEW JERSEY is 15-7 OVER when playing 6 or more games in 10 days this season. With Linsanity running the show in New York and with the addition of Smith you can now expect Dantonio to get his wish for that run and gun style offense. Plenty o0f points in this one.

[Mr. IWS]

Benton 20 dime Baylor