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Miami Heat -8.5 (POD). Really, can the Heat be really this good? The youngest coach in the league who also happens to be of Flipino decent has the young Heat playing well. What's nice about this game is the fact they come off a 11 point loss (push) at New Orleans and will be fired up to return home. The Heat have played well after losses as they return home including losing 115-120 at New York only to return home and win 103-77 over Sacramento. Or, losing 87-100 to Charlotte on the road only to come back home and beat the Sixers 106-83. Then, in the most recent loss at New Orleans losing 89-100, they are returning home to the Nets who also come off a spanking. I just don't know if the Nets are ready for this game as with no Harris this team has no true point guard and I think they will find it tough today to compete. The Heat have covered every game they come off a straight up loss this year as the new coach gets them fired up and consistently ready for a bounce-back. Let's ride the Heat as they return home after a double-digit loss. I usually don't lay this many points on a game, but I think it calls for it here.
Memphis Grizzlies +11. People are losing faith in the Grizzlies quick despite the fact they went toe to toe with the Nuggets for half of the ballgame. Heck, they only lost that game by 10 points and now see an 11.5 spread here coming off a loss. Remember, Memphis can play some ball as they beat the Warriors twice, they beat the Magic at home and have been competitive for the most part on the road. This is a game that I can see Memphis playing very well and likely covering as they come off a loss and the Suns come off a big win at the Bucks. In fact, if I'm not mistaken, the Grizzlies have yet to lose back to back ballgames ATS and I think they bounce-back well here. This is a spread that I think Memphis can cover and hang tough in frankly. Remember, Vegas keeps a close eye on the Suns and they have been covering well of late especially on the road so the chances of them covering at home are slimmer. Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS following a straight up loss.
Comp Play: Niners/Cardinals Under 47.5
San Fran now has Singletary calling the shots. Hill is expected to start at quarterback. The Cardinals are favored by about -9.5 and why not? This team is 5-3 and could be hosting a playoff game if they continue winning. The last time this team hosted a playoff game was more than 50 years ago. The Birds are alo 6-2 ATS and Warner has thrown for 16 touchdowns and 6 interceptions this year as he has thrown for more than 2400 yards. Arizona beat this team 23-13 on the road earlier in the year as the 49ers do have revenge from that game. The Niners got spanked in their first game with their new coach losing 13-34 to the Seahawks. This team has lost 5 straight covers while the Cardinals have won 4 straight covers. But, I have a standard rule that on a weekday football game, in particular the NFL, to shy away from such a favorite that is backed by the public at 63%. I lean on the Niners here with the points, but how do you against the Cardinals with their offense that just beat the Rams 34-13, and beat Buffalo at home 41-17 and beat the Dolphins by 3 touchdowns. No thanks, although a small lean on the under. In fact, that will likely be my free pick for today. This is just a big fade on the public today as they favor the over by 67% and I can see this game going either way, but I can see a defensive battle here for the most part as the Cards pull away. Thus, this is just m comp pick today on the under 47.5.
49ers +10 over Cardinals
The last five games have all come down to the wire between these two teams. Arizona is playing great football, but I do not think they are ready to be double digit favorites. San Francisco has a big coaching change and things can only get better considering they have played so bad. Expect to see a lot of Frank Gore as the 49ers will try to control the clock. The 49ers have a decent secondary that will show up tonight. Look for a great game. Take the 49ers.
ARIZONA over San Francisco by 6
Who would have ever thunk it? The Cardinals sitting atop the NFC West
division standings with a THREE GAME lead at the halfway point of the
season! Now instead of the hunter they become the hunted. Welcome to
the world of Richard Kimble, my friend. From this point forward they will
be tested, that you can believe. The first exam comes in this game when
they put their 0-11 ATS mark on the line as a .500 or greater team at home
against a division opponent. There’s also this 0-8 ATS mark as favorites of 7 or more points over the last 15 years to ponder. Toss in Frisco’s 7-0 ATS log with division revenge when playing off back-to-back losses and suddenly we’ve got a test paper that looks like aces in all the right places.
The Hammer Guaranteed Selections
Date: Monday, November 10, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: TEASE ME BABY!!!! This is what you WANT and this is what you NEED! The HAMMER will be at the window tonight with the CASH as he is featuring his MONDAY NIGHT TEASER PLAY OF THE YEAR! You will get both the SIDE and the TOTAL of tonight's game in a SIX POINT TEASER! Get this GUARANTEED WINNER tonight for just $25 and you will pay ONLY AFTER BOTH PLAYS WIN!
11/10/2008
MONDAY NIGHT TEASER PLAY OF THE YEAR
Arizona -3.5 and OVER 41.5 8:35 EST
10* Take Arizona (-9.5) over San Francisco (NFL Power Play)
8:30 PM EST
San Francisco
• 6-15 ATS as an underdog over the last 2 seasons
• 0-6 ATS coming off a home loss by 21 points or more
• 0-5 SU & ATS over the last 5 games
vegas-runner | NFL Money Line Triple-Dime Bet
233 SFX (-130) Sportsbetting.com vs 234 ARI
Analysis:
*** MNF 3* TEASER PLAY of the DAY ***
SF 49ERS +17 & OVER 40 (3*)...Teaser...
The reason that I am Uploading this Wager so early...is simply because I am almost 100% sure that the books will be forced to raise the Total as the action continues to come in on the OVER, which is typical for ALL MNF Games more or less...
And although the SIDE may also go up, which I would love to get 17.5 on...I prefer to grab the 17 now, so that we can bypass some KEY NFL TOTALS, like 41, 42, & 43...And I know that many shops may be already moving it to 47.5, which I would still go ahead and grab immediately, so that those 3 KEY NUMBERS can still be bypassed...VR
Mon, 11/10/08 - 8:35 PMvegas-runner | NFL Side Triple-Dime Bet
233 SFX 10.0 (-105) SportBet vs 234 ARI
Analysis:
*** MNF 3* BEST BET of the DAY ***
(SportBet +10 -105)
Mon, 11/10/08 - 8:35 PMvegas-runner | NFL Total Double-Dime Bet
234 ARI / 233 SFX Over 47.0 Sportsbetting.com
Analysis:
** MNF 2* TOTAL WAGER **
Since the time I Uploaded Tonight's 3* Teaser...the books have gone ahead and adjusted their Total, just like expected...and in this case...I went ahead and Posted the Wager at 47 (-120), because we are definately looking to buy the hook in this spot, with 47 being another KEY TOTAL...I also suggest getting down as quickly as possible, because this line should only move in one direction from here on out...VR
TORONTO +8.5 @ Boston...............7:35 EDT
BOS ....is playing their 5th game in 7 days
............every game involving travel....
............played in Detroit yesterday (6:00 EDT game)
............may have a small letdown VS a hungry, capable team.
TOR .....is 3-1 SU on the road.
............won @ Char yesterday
............played @ 1:00 EDT yesterday compared to Boston playing @ 6:00 EDT
Should be a tight game
.................................................. ......................................
OVER 196.5...Memph@ Phoenix.....9:05 EDT
6 of 7 PHO opponents have scored 96+points
...and PHO has scored 104+ in 5 of 7
This will be the last of a 4 game road trip for MEM....and the 1st game home for PHO after a 4 game road trip.
Both scenerios usually don't promote intense defense.
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