2-23-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.


Note:

ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

Freddy Wills

Duke -1.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD)

They are just a better team and this line shows it.* They want revenge for FSU upsetting them at the buzzer and ending Duke’s 45 game home winning streak.* It won’t be easy as Florida State plays great defense but I believe Duke can match that defensive intensity which was something they did not do at home in the first match up and ultimately cost them that game.* They allowed FSU to shoot 54% and 50% from three.* They even got to the Ft line more times while Duke only shot 39.7%.* They did shoot 43.5% from 3 which is where they can score points yet again considering the front court dominance on FSU side defensively.
*
The difference was Austin Rivers/ Seth Curry combined for 11-32 shooting and I do not see that happening again.* Florida State shot 50% from three and that just won’t happen again they 194th in 3 point offense on the year 33.8%.* Duke is 22nd so expect those balances to shift in what will be the difference in the game.* The Duke defense has really come alive of late they held BC without a FG for 14+ minutes in their last game and the rebounding too as they held a +24 rebound margin.* Granted BC is not very good but it’s good to see Duke play a full game and I think that translates across the board as they have better numbers over their last 3 games compared to season averages on 3 point defense, fg% defense and rebound%.* The offense is the offense as always and this team can grind out road games in challenging environments.* Duke has been a really good road team this year winning all 6 of their ACC road contests and this one is just as big as they want to beat FSU who they are tied with.*
*
Eastern Washington -120 (3* Late Night Fix)

Eastern Washington forced 23 turnovers in their last game but failed to score to take advantage, but now they go on the road against Idaho State where their uptempo offense (66th in possessions/game) could have a major impact on Idaho State which is very thin off their bench.* In their last game 3 players played 44+ minutes in 1 OT game, two of which who played the entire game.* I don’t think Eastern Washington’s uptempo and pressure defense will have a good result here.* Eastern Washington has a lot to play for as well trying to clinch a Big Sky tournament spot.* Idaho St just isn’t a very good team – 41.1% field on the season and they are 297th in rebound margin.*
*
Murray State -4 (3.3* bonus play)

Murray sure showed everyone they are the real deal as they blasted St. Mary’s and now they get to pound their chests more as they seek revenge for their only loss of the season at TN state, who beat them at home by 4.* So much happened in that game and so many things went right for TN state yet they win by just 4?** TN State shot 48% and 5 from 11 from three and got to the FT line 31 times.* On the season TN State is 164th in FG% offense 43.4 and Murray State only allows an average 41.9%.* On the flip side Murray who shot 46% was good enough to win the game but on the season they average 47.4% and TN State is 255th in FG% defense so expect Murray to shoot better tonight.
*
The biggest difference in this game that I see is the FT line.* Murray was -14 FTA and on the season they are ranked 20th getting to the line 24.3 times.* They got their over 7 times less and allowed TN state to get there 9 times over their average.* Murray State is also a very good FT shooting team ranked 59th 72.9% and shot under that in the last game.* Expect Murray to get back into the way they play which is aggressive and get to the FT line in this game which could make a huge difference from the first game.

[Mr. IWS]

Alatex
Cincy -2

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers

IOWA +5/+183 over Wisconsin Pinnacle
Wisconsin has split its last four games, losing to Ohio St and Michigan State while beating Penn State and Minnesota, the latter in OT. The Badgers have lost to every good team they've played this season. They come in as the 15th ranked team in the country but they're ranked 264th in points per game, 170th in rebounding, 268th in assists per game and 230th in FG percentage. Those are Nebraska-like numbers, not the numbers of a top ranked outfit. The Badgers are strong defensively but that's the only reason they're ranked. Truth be told, there are prtobably 50-60 teams that are better than they are and the Hawkeyes could certainly be one of them. Iowa is 12-5 at Carver-Hawkeye Arena with recent wins over Michigan State by 16 and Indiana by 12 among others. On Dec 31, the Hawkeyes went into Wisconsin and beat them by seven. The Badgers simply don't blow out good competition. The Hawkeyes are in an offensive groove right now and that sets this one up nicely for an upset. We get significant points and a a significant money-line takeback in a game the Hawkeyes can and probably will win outright. Play: Iowa +5 (Risking 1.09 units to win 1) Play: Iowa +183 (Risking 1 unit).

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers NBA

MIAMI -9 over New York Pinnacle
The two biggest stories, the Miami Heat and Linsanity, collide tonight on National TV the night before the all-star break and there's not a bigger ticket anywhere. Miami is an event town and this certainly qualifies, as some court-level seats are pushing $10,000 according to Twitter. The game itself could get lost in all this hype but let's call a spade a spade, shall we? The Knicks caught a little lightning in a bottle when Jeremy Lin first came on the scene. The kid is good and he makes the Knicks better but he doesn't turn them into a contender. Over their past four games, the Knicks have lost to both New Orleans and New Jersey. They whacked a Joe-Johnson less Hawks club last night. They still play Mike D'Antoni basketball and against the ferocious Heat, that style will get torn apart. Miami doesn't get up for a lot of games. This team has barely broken a sweat in dominating the regular season while waiting for the playoffs to begin. Unlike most nights, this game will get the Heats’ attention. This is what LeBron had to say, “Everyone knows the history between the Knicks and Heat, then you bring in the Jeremy Lin Linsation, you bring in the Miami Heat, Carmelo Anthony and those guys and Amare Stoudemire, Spike Lee, Pat Riley and all that and it’s a huge game.” You don't see us playing the Heat very often because they're usually overpriced. However, this is a spot in which they are not. The Knicks continue to attract money. They opened as a 10-point dog and it's been bet down. Expect the Heat to deliver a personal message tonight that says, “You're not even close to being on the same level as us”. Play: Miami -9 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner

100* Hawks / Magic Over 177.5

50* Arkansas -2

[Mr. IWS]

David Banks

Duke Blue Devils vs. Florida State Seminoles

The Florida State Seminoles (19-7, 13-11 ATS) will attempt to take their third straight from the Duke Blue Devils (23-4, 12-15 ATS) on Thursday night when the two ACC powerhouses lock horns for the second time this season; Tune to ESPN or log onto ESPN3.com to take this one in live starting at 7:00 ET.

A win here tonight would allow the Dookies to tie the North Carolina Tar Heels atop the ACC standings and take control of the conference with them having already toppled their most hated rival in dramatic fashion a couple weeks back. Coach Ks kids have been every bit as good as their 10-2 SU mark in the conference indicates, with the only two losses coming at home in overtime to the Miami Hurricanes and to tonights opponent who got the best of them at Cameron Indoor at the buzzer. Since shockingly falling to the Canes on Super Bowl Sunday, frosh phenom Austin Rivers has led his squad to four straight victories over UNC, Maryland, NC State, and Boston College. They won those games by an average of just over 12 points per game and covered the closing number in all but three of them. With only a trip to Wake Forest scheduled to go along with two home games against VTECH & UNC, Duke could hold the inside track for the ACC Championship if indeed it manages to get by the Noles in tonights spot. Dukes 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS away from Durham on the year.

After finally getting further than the 1st round of the NCAA Tourney a season ago, Head Coach Leonard Hamilton now has his squad on the brink of winning the ACC after finishing in third place a year ago. Save for shocking losses at both Boston College (64-60) and Clemson (79-59), the Noles have been every bit as dominating as both North Carolina and Duke has been within the conference. Even more so at home where FSU checks in 14-1 SU & 8-5 ATS; that mark improves to 6-0 SU & 3-3 ATS in the ACC with it failing to cover each of its last three. The Seminoles snapped a string of four straight pointspread defeats its last time out at NC State where it pounded the Wolfpack 76-62 as two-point underdogs. The win moved them into a tie with Duke for second place, but since they already hold the tiebreaker, they would surpass the Blue Devils if indeed they sweep the season series.

FSU has won and covered each of the last two meetings between these rivals winning 66-61 as seven-point home underdogs in January of last season and 76-73 at Duke as 10.5-point underdogs this past January; Michael Snaers last-second 3-Ball proved to be the difference in the neck and neck affair. Duke checks in just 5-5 SU & ATS the L/10 times it went off the board favored by two-point or less, and will invade Tallahassee having covered each of their L/5 road tussles. FSU counters with rock solid 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS tallies the L/10 times it was dogged by two-points or less, and has also covered six of its L/8 versus +.600 opposition. Dukes gone a very poor 2-6 ATS its L/8 visits to the Donald L. Tucker Center, with the under cashing in all eight of those match-ups.
PICK: UNDER

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG
CBB 258-227 Season-to-Date +$1590
Game: Duke at Florida State (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Duke -120 (moneyline)

The Duke Blue Devils make news when they lose a game, something that has occurred just four times this season. One of those news makers was vs. Florida State. The Seminoles went to Cameron and beat Duke on their home floor. Coach K has done a great job shutting down things that went wrong in the first meeting, and motivating his kids to come back with a fury. Unless your uniform says North Carolina on it, Duke has not lost two regular season games in the same year to anyone since 2006 when Maryland pulled the unlikely sweep. It has been a good year for the Seminoles, but they are going to face a furious Duke team that has been great in the Coach K era of exacting revenge. Play Duke on the moneyline.

[Mr. IWS]

Jimmy Boyd

***TOP PLAY*** 5* Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year (9-0 Roll)!
Florida Atlantic -6

*9-0 Tear* 4* 16-0 ATS SEC SMASH (ESPN2)!
Arkansas -2

Knicks/Heat 15-0 ATS NBA on TNT SMASH!
3* Miami Heat -8.5

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Orlando -3 over ATLANTA: The Hawks are headed in a downward spiral as they have lost 3 in a row and will once again be without leading scorer Joe Johnson. Atlanta has really struggled to score of late as they have averaged just 83.4 ppg in their last 5 games and it won't get easier tonight vs an Orlando team that has allowed just 91.1 ppg overall and 88.6 ppg in their last 5 games. Both teams did play last night, but for Atlanta it was their 5 straight road game and with this being their first home game back off a long trip they may just not be fully focused for this game. Orlando has been rolling of late as they have won 6 of their last 7 and they should take care of the undermanned Hawks tonight.

OKLAHOMA CITY -6 over LA Lakers: Statement time for the Thunder here and what better timer to make it than right now. The Lakers are a bad road time this year, they have some locker room issues and it doesn't look like Mike Brown has full control of the team. Now they have to travel to take on a Thunder team that has clearly shown they are the class of the West this year. the Thunder come in at 26-7 overall and 14-1 at home, while outscoring their home opponents by a solid 11 ppg. Both teams did play last night, but while the Lakers were in a dogfight with Dallas, the Thunder were having an easy time of it with Boston. The Lakers will be tired for this one (4th in 5 nights) and the younger more talented Thunder should walk away with a nice DD win.

2 UNIT PLAY

Miami/ New York Over 199: Lin, Anthony, Smith, Stoudamire. The Knicks now are healthy and have all the pieces to make Dantonio's offense work and they will start running a lot more now and they will have to tonight to keep up with a Miami team that averages 105 ppg at home. The Knicks have picked up their offense of late as they have averaged 96 ppg in their last 5 games and it will only get better with Carmelo in there. Miami will push the tempo at home and that will help get the Knicks out and running as well. Both teams could hit 100 in this one. KEY TREND--- LA LAKERS are 12-25 ATS when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons

[Mr. IWS]

Info Plays

7* NCAAB FREE PICK ON CLEVELAND STATE -3

[Mr. IWS]

insidersedgeclub

NBA
LA Lakers +6 3 units

NCAAB
New Mexico st. -11 4 units
Arkansas under 135 2 units
Iowa +5 3 units
Iowa over 125.5 3 units

[Mr. IWS]

Turner

St. Louis at Nashville
Nashville (+240)

Vancouver at Detroit
Over 5.5 (+110)

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner

500 Over 115 Arizona/USC
100 Over 177.5 Hawks/Magic
50 Arkansa -2

[Mr. IWS]

Frank Patron

20K - Over 116.5 Arizona/USC