Tweet
Dr Bob
Tuesday College Best Bet
MONTANA (-5) over Weber State
Rotation #750 – 6 pm Pacific
Both of these teams are 14-1 in Big Sky Conference play, so this game will determine the #1 seed in the upcoming conference tournament. Weber State won the first meeting 80-64 at home but the Wildcats are 0-8 ATS the last couple of years in road games against teams with a win percentage of greater than .667 (including 0-2 ATS at Montana) and Montana is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 conference home games, including 9-1 ATS when not favored by more than 10 points. Montana has won 11 consecutive games since losing at Weber State (8-3 ATS) while Weber State enters this game on a 7 game winning streak. That winning streak sets up the Wildcats in a negative 5-29-3 ATS subset of a 47-96-7 ATS road letdown situation that plays against good teams on a winning streak. Montana, meanwhile, applies to a 20-2 ATS subset of a 42-13-1 ATS home revenge situation and my ratings favor Montana by 5 points, so the line is fair. I’ll take Montana in a 2-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less (an opinion at -5 ½ or more).
Tuesday College Opinion
INDIANA (+2 ½) over Michigan State
Rotation #720 – 4 pm Pacific
Michigan State has won 7 consecutive games (6-1 ATS), but the Spartans apply to a negative 5-29-3 ATS subset of a 47-96-7 ATS road letdown situation that plays against good teams on a winning streak. Indiana, meanwhile, applies to a 102-48-2 ATS home revenge situation. My ratings favor Michigan State by 2 ½ points, so the line is fair, but I’m reluctant to fade Michigan State in a Best Bet. I’ll lean with Indiana based on the strong situation.
Tuesday College Best Bet
MONTANA (-5) over Weber State
Rotation #750 – 6 pm Pacific
Both of these teams are 14-1 in Big Sky Conference play, so this game will determine the #1 seed in the upcoming conference tournament. Weber State won the first meeting 80-64 at home but the Wildcats are 0-8 ATS the last couple of years in road games against teams with a win percentage of greater than .667 (including 0-2 ATS at Montana) and Montana is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 conference home games, including 9-1 ATS when not favored by more than 10 points. Montana has won 11 consecutive games since losing at Weber State (8-3 ATS) while Weber State enters this game on a 7 game winning streak. That winning streak sets up the Wildcats in a negative 5-29-3 ATS subset of a 47-96-7 ATS road letdown situation that plays against good teams on a winning streak. Montana, meanwhile, applies to a 20-2 ATS subset of a 42-13-1 ATS home revenge situation and my ratings favor Montana by 5 points, so the line is fair. I’ll take Montana in a 2-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less (an opinion at -5 ½ or more).
Tuesday College Opinion
INDIANA (+2 ½) over Michigan State
Rotation #720 – 4 pm Pacific
Michigan State has won 7 consecutive games (6-1 ATS), but the Spartans apply to a negative 5-29-3 ATS subset of a 47-96-7 ATS road letdown situation that plays against good teams on a winning streak. Indiana, meanwhile, applies to a 102-48-2 ATS home revenge situation. My ratings favor Michigan State by 2 ½ points, so the line is fair, but I’m reluctant to fade Michigan State in a Best Bet. I’ll lean with Indiana based on the strong situation.
Comment