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JEFF SCOTT SPORTS
3 UNIT PLAYS
Norther Iowa -2.5 over Illinois State: Starting with an offseason trip to Brazil, in which the NIU Panthers went 5-0 and then taking on the 52nd ranked schedule, this Panthers squad has been tested and are ready for some success in the post season. The Panthers did struggle away from home vs the MVC as they went 2-8 in their conference road games, but then again the Redbirds also had a 2-8 road mark in the MVC. NIU did lose by just 4 at Illinois State, while the Panthers beat them by 15 at home. Illinois State has scored 65.6 ppg in their last 5 games, but just 54.5 ppg in their last 2 games. Their last game in which they scored just 54 points vs Bradley is a bit disturbing as the Braves have one of the worst scoring defenses in the MVC. It won't get much easier for them today as they will be taking on a Panthers team that has allowed just 63.2 ppg in MVC play. Defense has been a problem for the Redbirds this year as they have allowed 68.7 ppg in MVC play, including 75.9 ppg on the road in MVC play. NIU has not been great offensively as they have averaged just 65.3 ppg ovberall, but they have put up 71.5 ppg in their neutral games and overall they shoot the three ball well (39%) and hit their FT's ( 72.7 %). A slight edge on offense does go to the Redbirds, but they do come in slumping a bit at that end of the floor, while I give a pretty big edge to the Panthers at the defensive end. This team has been playing together since the summer and while they may not make it to the MVC finals they have more than enough, especially at the defensive end, to win this one with ease.
Detroit -5 over Youngstown State: Detroit has not been a great ATS team this year as they have gone just 9-19-1 ATS overall and just 1-6 ATS down the stretch, but this team is putting it all together at the right time and I feel they should come up with a solid win here. Detroit comes in having won 12 of their last 15 games and are just playing very well at the moment. The Titans may be 6-9 in all games away from home this year, but they have won 5 of their last 8 when venturing out on the road. Youngstown is heading in the opposite direction as they come in having won just 2 of their last 5 games, which has included a home loss to Detroit, a road loss to a mediocre Austin Peay squad and just a 7 point home win to a bad Wright State team. Detroit dose have a road wins over Butler, Youngstown State and they beat Wright State by 16 points on the road as well in their last 8 games, so this team can play away from home, while the Penguins are 4-10 away from home, with 6 of their last 8 road losses coming by 6 points or more. Detroit is playing better ball right now and should dispatch the Penguins rather easily in this one.
2 UNIT PLAY
Appalachian State/ Charlotte Over 135: Appy State has allowed 74.3 ppg away from home, while Charlotte has allowed 68.3 ppg away from home this year. Both teams have the ability to hit the high sixties in this one and I expect the game in the 140's. KEY TRENDS--- APPALACHIAN ST is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season AND 22-9 OVER (+12.1 Units) revenging a same season loss vs opponent since 1997.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Norther Iowa -2.5 over Illinois State: Starting with an offseason trip to Brazil, in which the NIU Panthers went 5-0 and then taking on the 52nd ranked schedule, this Panthers squad has been tested and are ready for some success in the post season. The Panthers did struggle away from home vs the MVC as they went 2-8 in their conference road games, but then again the Redbirds also had a 2-8 road mark in the MVC. NIU did lose by just 4 at Illinois State, while the Panthers beat them by 15 at home. Illinois State has scored 65.6 ppg in their last 5 games, but just 54.5 ppg in their last 2 games. Their last game in which they scored just 54 points vs Bradley is a bit disturbing as the Braves have one of the worst scoring defenses in the MVC. It won't get much easier for them today as they will be taking on a Panthers team that has allowed just 63.2 ppg in MVC play. Defense has been a problem for the Redbirds this year as they have allowed 68.7 ppg in MVC play, including 75.9 ppg on the road in MVC play. NIU has not been great offensively as they have averaged just 65.3 ppg ovberall, but they have put up 71.5 ppg in their neutral games and overall they shoot the three ball well (39%) and hit their FT's ( 72.7 %). A slight edge on offense does go to the Redbirds, but they do come in slumping a bit at that end of the floor, while I give a pretty big edge to the Panthers at the defensive end. This team has been playing together since the summer and while they may not make it to the MVC finals they have more than enough, especially at the defensive end, to win this one with ease.
Detroit -5 over Youngstown State: Detroit has not been a great ATS team this year as they have gone just 9-19-1 ATS overall and just 1-6 ATS down the stretch, but this team is putting it all together at the right time and I feel they should come up with a solid win here. Detroit comes in having won 12 of their last 15 games and are just playing very well at the moment. The Titans may be 6-9 in all games away from home this year, but they have won 5 of their last 8 when venturing out on the road. Youngstown is heading in the opposite direction as they come in having won just 2 of their last 5 games, which has included a home loss to Detroit, a road loss to a mediocre Austin Peay squad and just a 7 point home win to a bad Wright State team. Detroit dose have a road wins over Butler, Youngstown State and they beat Wright State by 16 points on the road as well in their last 8 games, so this team can play away from home, while the Penguins are 4-10 away from home, with 6 of their last 8 road losses coming by 6 points or more. Detroit is playing better ball right now and should dispatch the Penguins rather easily in this one.
2 UNIT PLAY
Appalachian State/ Charlotte Over 135: Appy State has allowed 74.3 ppg away from home, while Charlotte has allowed 68.3 ppg away from home this year. Both teams have the ability to hit the high sixties in this one and I expect the game in the 140's. KEY TRENDS--- APPALACHIAN ST is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season AND 22-9 OVER (+12.1 Units) revenging a same season loss vs opponent since 1997.
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