3-2-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.


Note:

ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness

28 club play - missouri state
8* - Butler

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' 10* Ivy League G.O.M. (35-18 s/Jan 1 with CBB 10*s)

My 10* Ivy League Game of the Month is on Princeton at 7:00 ET.

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer's CBB *AFTERNOON ANNIHILATOR!* (15-3 Run) - Friday

I'm laying the points with Northern Iowa on Friday afternoon

[Mr. IWS]

VEGAS RUNNER

2* MORNING MOVES 2* BOOKIE BET* NC Wilmington +3

[Chico1856]

Dr Bob



Friday College Opinions
Loyola Marymount (+2) over San Francisco
Rotation #860 – 6 pm Pacific
Loyola has beaten USF twice this season by a combined 3 points and the Lions finished 3 games ahead of the Dons in the West Coast Conference standings. I’m a bit surprised that USF is favored in this game, but my ratings favor the Dons by ½ a point – so I also didn’t expect Loyola to be favored either (I thought the line would be pick). Loyola applies to a 59-26-3 ATS conference tournament situation, but the best part of that angle doesn’t apply – so I’ll pass on making this a Best Bet. But, the situation still favor Loyola and the line value does too. I’ll lean with Loyola Marymount plus the points.

Evansville (+2 ½) over Missouri State
Rotation #854 – 7 pm Pacific
I’ve pegged Evansville as an underrated team ever since mid-December when they lost poor shooting Jordan Jahr was injured (it helps not having a guy shooting 34% in the rotation). Evansville’s offense improved without Jahr’s bad shooting and after starting the season 1-5 ATS the Aces are on a 15-4-1 ATS run with their current rotation of players, including winning and covering both meetings with Missouri State. The line on this game is based on the entire season for both teams (I get Missouri State by 1 ½ points using all games), but using Evansville’s games with their current rotation would favor the Aces by 2 points. You may think Missouri State having double-revenge is meaningful, but teams with double-revenge are just 48% ATS in conference tournament games and just 46% for lower seeded favorites with double-revenge. In other words, double-revenge has no bearing on this game, but the public thinks it does, which is why there is a slight edge towards betting against double-revenging teams. I’ll lean with Evansville as a dog in this game and I’d take Evansville in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more.

Tennessee Tech (+8) over Murray State
Rotation #871 – 4 pm Pacific
Murray State applies to the same 1-31 ATS situation that was 0-31 ATS before Wichita State covered in this morning. That angle has still been very good to me since I discovered it (I’m now 10-1 with it), but this time I’m going to pass on it because the line is too low. Murray State has in a perpetual letdown mode during most of the Ohio Valley Conference schedule, as they simply weren’t challenged by the teams in their league. The Racers also were without 3rd leading scorer and top rebounder Ivan Aska for 6 games and only covered the spread in 1 of those games. Murray State is starting to ramp up their level of play (5 straight spread wins) and my ratings favor the Racers by 10 points using their games with Aska and using conference games only would still favor Murray State by 9 points. The line opened at 8 ½ and has gone down and I’m not going to give up too much line value even if the situation is 31-1 ATS. I still think Tennessee Tech is the right side, as the Golden Eagles are a good underdog (17-6-1 ATS the last two years when getting points), so I’ll lean with Tennessee Tech at +8 points or more based on the 31-1 ATS situation.