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Keith Richards
100 Dime- Western Kentucky -3.5
50 Dime- Iona- +2
25 Dime- Umass +7
100 Dime- Western Kentucky -3.5
50 Dime- Iona- +2
25 Dime- Umass +7
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Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Stony Brook +11 over SETON HALL: Motivation. It's all about the motivation in this one. Seton Hall had high hopes of making the NCAA Tourney, but they were snubbed and now are playing in the NIT. Seton hall also found out that they weren't really that close to making the Tourney, as NCAA Tournament selection committee chairman Jeff Hathaway revealed that Seton Hall wasn’t as close to the last four teams as most thought. The Hall had a nice win down the stretch as they beat Georgetown by 18, but after that they went 1-3, which included a home loss to Rutgers and a 28 point road loss to the worst team in the league in Depaul. This is not a team that is finishing strong as they did go 6-10 in their last 16 games and finished just 8-10 in the Big East, after a strong start. Now Stony Brook had a fine season in the American East Conference as they won their regular season with a 16-3 record, but a loss in the Finals of their tourney has them here instead of the Big One. Still this is a team that will relish post season play and anytime these small schools get a chance to take down a team from a power 6 conference you can bet you will get their best shot. Even though they lost their Conference Tourney, the Seawolves are thrilled at a chance at a Big East team, while Seton Hall has lost a lot of motivation after not making it to the Big Dance. Seawolves should keep this one very close.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Tennessee Tech +9.5 over GEORGIA STATE: Tech didn't really finish the season strong as they won juts 3 of their last 7 games, but this team still went 19-13 overall and 9-5 min non-conf games, plus of their losses in their last 7 games were to Murray State. Tech is led Kevin Murphy, who is one of the better scorers in Division I and finished the season ranked 10th nationally in scoring (21.1 ppg). Murphy has really turned it on down the stretch scoring at least 21 points in each of the last four games, while also having a 50-point performance under his belt this year. As a team the Golden Eagles are 68th (72.6 ppg) in scoring and 36th in shooting (47.1%). Now we know that Georgia state plays excellent defense as they have allowed just 59.2 ppg (18th), but they have also played a lot of schools in the CAA that slow the pace and just don't score well, so those numbers may not tell the whole story. Now when this team played the likes of Texas SA (56th in scoring), Wahsington (34th) and Utah Valley State (69.9 ppg), they allowed 71, 91 and 68 points respectively in the 3 games and Tech falls into the category of the three teams above. The Golden Eagles do struggle on defense while the GSU offense is average at best, but I feel that Tech will be able to put up enough points vs this GSU defense that has struggled with some good scoring out of conference teams. I look for a close one here.
Tennessee/ Savannah State Over 124: Savannah comes in as a tough defensive team as they have allowed just 58.9 ppg (11th) on the year, but two things stood out for me when looking over their numbers. 1st is the fact that they play in the MEAC conference, where 8 of their members are 201st or worse in scoring. 2nd is the fact that Savannah state has played 5 teams from the power 6 conferences (Indiana, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Wisconsin and Arkansas) and they allowed 78.2 ppg in those games. Tennessee is a power 6 conference team and they averaged 69 ppg overall and 72 ppg in their last 5, plus at home they have put up 71.5 ppg, so I expect them to have a good showing vs this overrated defense. The Vols on defense have been better down the stretch and they do allow just 60.8 ppg at home, while the Tigers have averaged 60.9 ppg on the road and if we can get 60 points from them here I don't see how this play loses, as I expect no less than 70 from the hometown Vols. This game should reach 130 with ease.
Iona +2 over BYU: Both teams are happy to be here, but I feel that the Gaels have been far more impressive this season than BYU. The Cougars have gone a solid 13-5 in their conference, but they were just 1-4 vs the top two teams in the WCC (St Mary's and Gonzaga), while outside their conference they had just 2 notable wins (Virginia Tech and Oregon). The Gaels had an excellent year and are led by two players that Pro Scouts have been drooling over in Scott Machado (13.6 ppg and 9.9 apg) and Mike Glover (18.5 ppg and 9 rpg). The Gales also know how to play on the road as they are 11-4 away form home and that includes a stretch of 8 straight away games in December, in which they went 6-2. No only is this team talented but they have also been tested this year, both in an out of conference, while BYU feasted mostly on a weak non-conference slate and the bottom teams of their conference. Should be a good game with plenty of points, but this Gaels offense will have the better time of it here as BYU won't stop them.
Dayton/ Iowa Under 148.5: Yes the Hawkeyes score and give up plenty of points, but I do not see this one as a high scoring game. Iowa did play a game vs Michigan State in which 167 points were scored, but that has not been the norm for them of late as all 10 of their previous games 147 points or less, with just 2 of those games putting up more than 141 points and 7 of those games at 136 or less. The Hawkeyes do allow 71.3 ppg on the year, but prior to the Michigan State game they did allow just 63.5 ppg in their previous 6 games. Dayton has averaged 71.6 ppg, but are not really a faced paced team and I don't expect them to run with the Hawkeyes here. Iowa has been solid on offense, especially at home, where they have averaged 75.9 ppg, but Dayton has been playing some solid defense of late as they have allowed just 60.8 ppg in their last 5 games. Only one of Dayton's last 8 non-OT games have put up more than tonight's total, while the other 7 games have hit no higher than 140 points. This is to high an OU line here for two team that haven't normally been playing games this high of late. This one should stay in the 130's.
2 UNIT PLAY
Massachusetts +7.5 over MISSISSIPPI STATE: Both teams had aspirations of making the NCAA Tourney, but I feel the sting ids felt more on the side of the Bulldogs and several players have stated that this is not where they want to be. The Bulldogs have struggled down the stretch as they won just 2 of heir last 8 games, which includes 2 losses to Georgia. The last one was a 10 point loss inj the first round of the SEC tournament. If you can't get up for Georgia in that game then how will you get up for UMass in this one. The Minnutemen are disappointed about the snub as well, but this is still a team that would love to build some confidence for the future and what better way than vs an SEC school. These two teams have a lot in common, with strong offenses and suspect defenses fueled by star players, but the MInutemen want to be here, while Mississippi state is less than thrilled. This one should go down to the wire.
1 UNIT PLAY
Western Kentucky -3 over Miss Valley State: Maybe not a good Idea, but im gonna fade the sharps in this one. WKU has been rolling down the stretch as they have won their last 7 and 8 of 9 to make it to one of the 4 play in games. WKU took out Ark LR, Denver and North Texas in their tournament and I beleive that is impressive as they were dogs in all three, while Denver and Ark LR were 1-2 in the Sun Belt West. MSVAS had a very good year and they went 20-1 in the SWAC, but in their conference tourney they were not all that impressive as they beat their 3 opponents by just 9 total points. The Sexy pick here is the dog, but I believe that the Hilltoppers are playing very well right now and should keep that going with a 5+ point win here.Comment
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