3-16-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.


Note:

ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob

3* Georgetown
2* San Diego St
2* Creighton
2* Kansas

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness
10* overs Belmont/Georgetown

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer *double-dime bet 837 North Carolina St. -2.0 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 838 San Diego St.

Analysis: I'm laying the points with NC State on Friday. Nothing but respect for Steve Fisher and the outstanding job he did with the Aztecs this season. Very few felt this year's team would spend the majority of the season in or around the top-15 in the nation. After all, SDSU lost some serious "guns" from last season's squad, including Kawhi Leonard (getting big minutes with the Spurs), Malcolm Thomas, D.J. Gay, and Billy White. Those four players averaged a combined 48.3 ppg and a couple dozen rpg. This year's edition is all about guard play - and while SDSU has nice talent in the backcourt, they just don't matchup well with NC State's size. All five Wolfpack starters average over 10 ppg. Three of their top five scorers are forwards and the Pack will be one of the best inside-outside combos SDSU will have faced this season. Certainly better than the Aztecs faced in the MWC. NC State forwards C.J. Leslie and Richard Howell combine for 16.8 rpg. Lorenzo Brown is one of the best "dishers" in college baskets, averaging 6.35 apg. The fact they can do damage on the blocks as well as from outside makes this Wolfpack squad a very tough out. They average over 73 ppg on 46.3% shooting and own a plus-8 rebound margin per contest. The Pack are on a 13-4 ATS neutral court run, including a perfect 5-0 in their last five. They're 8-1 ATS in road games against teams that force no more than 14 turnovers per game. And while this isn't a true road game, the point is that SDSU doesn't force a lot of mistakes. I'm backing NC State minus the points on Friday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness
10* Temple
9* Creighton
9* Notre Dame

[Mr. IWS]

Ness 10* belmont over

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

75 dime release: Creighton +1.5
10 dime - 3 team parlay: Cincy - 2.5 / SD St + 2 / Memphis - 3

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al

At 9:55 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks minus the points over Detroit. Before getting upset 81-72 by Baylor, as a 6.5-point favorite, the Jayhawks had won nine straight games, including a perfect 4-0 over Tourney teams Kansas St., Baylor, Texas and Missouri, and the Jayhawks have allowed just two foes to shoot better than 41% over their last 10 games. Detroit is a good team that went 22-13 this season, but what stands out among its 22 wins is that none were against teams that made this year's tournament. Its best win this season was 70-50 against Valparaiso in the Horizon League championship game, but it also lost to the Crusaders twice during the regular season. And it fell to Notre Dame and Alabama, as well, and those were the only two tourney teams it met this season. Detroit is a poor 33-52 ATS off a double digit win, while Kansas is 11-2 ATS its last 13 off a loss. Finally, NCAA Tourney teams off back to back SU/ATS wins are an awful 108-169 ATS if they covered by 10+ points in their previous game. Take Kansas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:25 pm, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers plus the points over St Marys. There aren't many coaches better than Matt Painter in getting his kids to respond well off a defeat. And the bigger the defeat, the better his team generally plays in its next game. Indeed, the Boilermakers are an impressive 19-1 ATS their last 20 off a double-digit loss, including a perfect 7-0 ATS vs. Non-Conference foes. In Purdue's quarterfinal matchup vs. Ohio State, the Boilers lost 88-71 to the Buckeyes. But if history is any indication, they'll play very well tonight. Take the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Ottawa Senators over the Montreal Canadiens. It's hard to believe, but with just 11 regular season games to go, the team with far more Stanley Cups to its name than any other franchise in NHL history is virtually assured of finishing with its worst record in almost a decade and it may even conclude the season in the cellar of the Eastern Conference (they are currently tied with the Islanders for the worst division record). Tonight, the Canadiens play their fellow countrymen from the Capital City who, unlike the Habs, are right in the middle of a battle for the post-season, currently in 7th place just four points ahead of the Caps for the final playoff spot. These two teams actually met Wednesday in Montreal, and the Canadiens won 3-2 to hand Ottawa its second straight loss. So this game is very meaningful for the Senators while Montreal is simply trying to not embarrass itself any more than it already has this season, although to be fair, injuries have had a lot to do with the Canadiens' woes. That problem continues as the season winds down as the Habs currently have seven regulars who are either out for the season or questionable for tonight's game due to injury or illness (plus another player - defenseman Tomas Kaberle - who has missed time for personal reasons). Montreal's a poor 35-56 off an overtime win. Take Ottawa. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 6:50 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Billikens + the points over Memphis. This is the best match-up of the first round, as each of these two teams was woefully under-seeded, with St. Louis being much better than a #9 seed, and Memphis being much better than a #8 seed. The Tigers were hot down the stretch, and won and covered their last seven games. But they also had the benefit of playing the Conference USA Tournament on their home court, where they went 18-2 this season (and 11-6 ATS). Away from home, Memphis fared worse, going just 6-7 ATS. Of course, playing at home confers a big advantage in the Conference Tournaments, but it doesn't prepare a team for the environment it will face in the NCAA Tournament. And teams off a home game fare markedly worse in the first round of the Tournament, as they're 65-101 ATS vs. foes who didn't play their previous game at home. And when priced from +1.5 to -10 points, such teams are a dreadful 11-35 ATS since 1990. It's true that Memphis is one of the hottest teams coming into this year's tournament. Unfortunately for Josh Pastner's club, teams off 7+ ATS wins have covered just 16 of 52 games in the post-season vs. foes not off back to back wins. That doesn't bode well for the Tigers here. Take St. Louis. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels minus the points over Vermont. UNC was the top seed in the ACC Tournament, but lost in the Final Round to Florida St. I think they'll rebound here with a blowout win over the Catamounts, as North Carolina is a strong 35-14 ATS (71.4%) off an upset loss, and NCAA Tourney teams that lost as a #1 seed in their Conference Tourney are also 71.4% ATS in their first game vs. foes off a SU/ATS win. With Vermont in off a 12-point win over Lamar in the play-in game, we'll fade Vermont, and lay the points with UNC. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

[Mr. IWS]

wayne root

sandiego state < mill >
temple < bill >
kansas < bill >
virginia < nl >
st louis < Pinnacle 1st round goy >
st bonny < fortune 500 >

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer's NCAA 2ND RD UNDERDOG *GAME OF THE YEAR!* (3-0 Sweep Y-Day & 15-5 Big Dance Run) !

I'm taking the points with St. Louis on Friday

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob

Opinion
Cincinnati (-2) vs. Texas (Rotation: 842)
16-Mar-12 09:15 AM Pacific
Texas didn’t make the most of their talent in the regular season, as the Longhorns are just 10-17-1 ATS. However, talented teams that underperform in the regular season most often rise to the occasion in the NCAA Tournament and the Longhorns apply to a very good 40-11 ATS situation that is based on their bad spread record. Cincinnati, however, applies to an 84-30-3 ATS round 1 situation and the record is 3-3 ATS when those two angles intersect. Texas is certainly talented enough to beat an offensively challenged team like Cincinnati, but the Bearcats play relatively better against better teams. Cincinnati actually is 5-3 straight up against teams ranked in my top 25, so the Bearcats could do some damage if they get past this game, but my ratings only favor Cincy by 1 ½ points in this game (with a total of 131 points). This game could really go either way but the winner, especially if it’s Cincinnati, has a good chance to advance to the Sweet 16 and beyond. I have no opinion on this game.
2 Star Selection

San Diego State (+2 ½) over NC State (Rotation: 838)
16-Mar-12 09:40 AM Pacific
NC State certainly looked good in the ACC Tournament, covering the spread in all 3 games and nearly knocking off North Carolina in the semifinals, but the Wolfpack also lost 4 straight right before winning 4 of 5 and late season spread winning streaks generally don’t lead to point spread success in the first round of the NCAA tournament (teams that covered 4 or more in a row are just 17-31-2 ATS in round 1 if facing a team coming off a straight up and ATS loss, as San Diego State is). San Diego State is certainly not a dominating team and their average game rating with all key personnel is 0.5 points worse than NC State’s average game rating with all their starters. However, San Diego State had a tendency to letdown against bad teams, which dragged down their average rating, and the Aztecs played well against other good teams. NC State was just the opposite. San Diego State played 15 games against good teams (12 against legit NCAA tournament teams plus a game at Arizona and two games against Wyoming) and the Aztecs were 9-6 straight up in those games with an average game rating that was 1.9 points higher than their overall average rating. NC State, meanwhile, was just 6-10 straight up against other good teams with a slightly lower average rating in those games. To make the comparison fair I will exclude games against elite teams Syracuse, Indiana, Duke and North Carolina and I’ll exclude San Diego State’s game against Baylor. In 14 games against good, but not elite teams the Aztecs were 9-5 straight up while NC State was a more modest 6-4 against such teams with 5 of the wins being very close games (by 5 points or less). San Diego State’s average game rating against that level of opponent was 0.6 points higher than NC State’s average game rating against good but not great teams and my overall ratings favor the Aztecs by 1 point (with a total of 138 points). San Diego State also applies to a 28-4-2 ATS subset of a 77-31-4 ATS round 1 situation while NC State applies to a negative 21-52-1 ATS situation. It’s odd to have a #6 seed as an underdog against a #11 seed but the NCAA Tournament committee has been pretty good in these situations, as teams seeded #6 or better are 10-4 straight up and 10-4 ATS in round 1 as a dog, pick or 1 point favorite. That’s because the Tournament committee concentrates on teams that win games rather than teams that lose competitively and the Aztecs are certainly better at winning games. I’ll take San Diego State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better.
Play Strength: 2-Stars at -1 or better.
2 Star Selection

Creighton (+2) over Alabama (Rotation: 830)
16-Mar-12 10:40 AM Pacific
Creighton hasn’t been covering the spread lately but the Bluejays have been winning games (7 in a row) and are 28-5 on the season, including a 3-1 record against top 50 rated teams (win at San Diego State, home win against Long Beach, and 1-1 against Wichita State). Alabama, meanwhile, hasn’t beaten a top-50 rated team since mid-November and are 0-6 straight up in those games since December. The Tide are very good defensively, but they haven’t been as good without suspended big man Tony Mitchell, who was averaging 13.1 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.0 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game. Leading scorer JaMychal Green also missed 5 games due to suspension (and two others), but he was reinstated 5 games ago. Bama’s level of play in 7 games without Green is about the same as their overall rating but the Crimson Tide are 2 points worse in 10 games without Mitchell and 1 ½ points worse than their overall rating in 5 games without Mitchell but with Green back. Alabama is overrated and they certainly shouldn’t be favored in this game against a good Creighton team that has played pretty well against other good teams. Creighton’s offense is about 1 point worse against good defensive teams, but I still favor the Bluejays by 1 ½ points (and 134 ½ total points) even after making that adjustment. In addition to the line value Creighton applies to a solid 62-29-2 ATS round 1 situation while Alabama applies to a negative 13-32 ATS situation. Those angles actually overlap pretty often and the record is 15-2 ATS when they do. I’ll take Creighton in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better.
Play Strength: 2-Stars at -1 or better.
Opinion

Virginia (+3 ½) over Florida (Rotation: 849)
16-Mar-12 11:10 AM Pacific
The line on this game is based on how these teams played over the course of the entire season and using all games would give me a prediction of Florida by 3 ½ points. However, Virginia has not been as good since losing C Assane Sene, who was their best interior defender and Florida hasn’t been as good since losing their best defensive player Will Yeguete, who was the Gators best rebounder and averaged 1.2 steals per game in just 22 minutes per game. I calculate Yeguete’s defensive contribution at 1.7 points per game and Florida’s defense has actually been 2.7 points worse per game (based on compensated defensive efficiency in the game’s he’s missed this season). Florida lost at home to Tennessee on February 11th in the game that Yeguete got hurt (he played just 2 minutes) and won at Alabama in the next game when the Tide were without their best two players due to suspension. Yeguete came back for victories over Arkansas and Auburn but was declared out for the season after that and the Gators are just 1-4 straight up since then. Florida also doesn’t play as well against good defensive teams and Virginia is still a good defensive team even without Sene. If Florida gets hot from 3-point range (they attempt 25 3-pointers per game at 39% success) then the Gators will probably win this game pretty easily but Virginia allowed just 29.5% 3-point shooting during the year (although that number has gone up without Sene since the Cavs have to worry about drives to the basket more now without Sene roaming the paint). My ratings favor Florida by just 2 ½ points in this game (with a total of 123 ½ points) and Virginia applies to a 40-11 ATS situation that picks the #7 vs #10 and #8 vs #9 games. I’ll consider Virginia a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more and I’d take the Cavaliers in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 or more.
Opinion

Florida State (-6) vs. St. Bonaventure (Rotation: 840)
16-Mar-12 11:45 AM Pacific
Both of these teams won their conference tournaments in upset fashion and both apply to first round letdown situations because of it. However, the 36-97-3 ATS situation that Florida State applies to is more significant than the 34-67-2 ATS situation that the Bonnies apply to and the intersection of those two angles is 3-0 ATS in favor of St. Bonaventure. While the technical analysis favors the Bonnies, my ratings do not as I favor Florida State by 7 ½ points in this game and St. Bonaventure has been relatively worse against better teams. The only two games that the Bonnies have played against teams of Florida State’s caliber were a 24 point loss at St. Louis and a 6 point home loss against Temple. That does not really bode well for them and the Bonnies’ relatively worse play against better competition is why my tournament ratings favor Florida State by 7 ½ points while my overall ratings favor the Seminoles by just 6 ½ points (with a total of 134 ½ points). I’ll pass on this game.
3 Star Selection

Georgetown (-3 ½) over Belmont (Rotation: 836)
16-Mar-12 12:10 PM Pacific
No #3 seed has ever been favored by so few points as Georgetown is favored against Belmont (5 ½ points was the previous low line) and #3 seeds are 9-4-1 ATS in round 1 when favored by 8 points or fewer, including 7-0 ATS after losing as a favorite in their most recent game (which Georgetown did in losing to Cincinnati). Belmont is a popular pick for a first round upset in part because they lost by just 1 point at Duke early in the season, but the Bruins also lost by 16 at Memphis in their only other game against an NCAA tournament caliber team and the average of those two game ratings would result in a prediction of Georgetown by 4 ½ points. The average ratings differential between these two teams is actually 3 ½ points if you exclude the two games that Belmont was missing a key starter, which is why the line is 3 ½ points, but my ratings use a matrix of one team’s game ratings against the others, which dampens the affect of outliers. Georgetown’s median game rating was 7.4 points higher than Belmont’s median game rating and the median cell in the matrix of the Hoyas’ game ratings against the Bruins’ game ratings would favor Georgetown by 5.1 points (with a total of 138 ½ points). This game boils down to Belmont’s guard oriented, 3-point shooting offense (23 attempts per game at 37.8%) against Georgetown’s elite perimeter defense (allowed just 27.0% 3-point shooting and an overall defensive efficiency that ranks 7th in the nation). Belmont played 8 games this season against teams that allowed less than 32% 3-point shooting and those were also the highest overall rated teams that the Bruins faced this season. In those 8 games against Duke, Memphis, Middle Tennessee State (twice), Marshall (twice), and Mercer (twice) Belmont made just 33.0% of their 3-point shots and the Bruins average game rating was 2.2 points worse than their season average game rating (and that includes their high game rating in the 1 point loss at Duke). Those opponents combined to allow 31.4% 3-point shooting for the season and Georgetown allows just 27.0%, so I don’t expect Belmont to find many open looks from beyond the 3-point arc in this game. Not only do my ratings make the line on this game 5 points but Georgetown applies to a very good 34-5-1 ATS subset of an 82-29-4 ATS round 1 situation. If Belmont makes considerably more than the 31% on 3-pointers that I expect them to make then they do have a shot at an upset, but all indications are that the Bruins will struggle offensively against the Hoyas’ great defense. I’ll take Georgetown in a 3-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -5 points.
Play Strength: 3-Stars at -4 or less, 2-Stars up to -5.
Opinion

North Carolina (-15 ½) over Vermont (Rotation: 828)
16-Mar-12 01:10 PM Pacific
The question in this game is whether the ACC Defensive Player of the Year John Henson will return to the lineup for North Carolina. Hension has missed the last two games and the Tarheels’ compensated defensive efficiency has predictably been higher in those two games (0.96 points per possession rather than 0.85 ppp for the season). Part of that is due to variance, as those two opponents shot a better than expected percentage from 3-point range, which doesn’t have too much to do with Henson being out, but North Carolina’s defensive efficiency was still 0.06 ppp higher than normal after adjusting for that variance, which is equivalent to about 4 ½ points at the pace that the Tarheels play. My ratings favor North Carolina by 19 points in this game if Henson plays his normal minutes at his normal effectiveness, but that number would be 14 ½ points if he is indeed worth 4 ½ points. The line on this game opened at 16 ½ points and has gone down, which makes me suspect that Henson is more likely not to play – and I’m sure coach Williams would love to sit him one more game to get healthier for later rounds. This is a pretty low spread for a #1 seed against a #16 seed and #1 seeds that are favored by 19 points or less are 6-0 ATS over the years (6-1 ATS if Syracuse doesn’t cover). I have no opinion on this game without knowing the status of Henson. My predicted total is 142 ½ points and it would be a couple points higher if Henson doesn’t play, so 144 ½ looks like a fair total.
Opinion

Missouri (-21 ½) vs. Norfolk State (Rotation: 848)
16-Mar-12 01:40 PM Pacific
This could be a massive blowout or a fairly competitive game based on how Norfolk State played in 5 games against good teams this season. Norfolk beat Drexel by 5 points and lost by just 2 points to Marquette in a tournament in November, but the Spartans also lost at Marquette by 31 points and at Illinois State by 32 points (their other game against a good team was a 13 point loss at Virginia Tech). My ratings favor Missouri by 23 points using all games (with a total of 146 points), but I get 21 points with the letdown factor built in, so the line is pretty fair. I’ll pass on this game.
Opinion

St. Louis (+3 ½) over Memphis (Rotation: 833)
16-Mar-12 03:50 PM Pacific
This is a pretty tough draw for both of these teams, as both deserve to be seeded as a #5 or #6 at the worst. Not only do these under-seeded teams have to play each other but the winner has to face a #1 seed in the next round. Memphis is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games and have been dominating in 7 games since a home loss to UTEP led coach Pastner to take the names off the back of their jerseys to get the point across that they need to play like a team. I played on the Tigers in their last two games in their conference tournament and they certainly look like a team capable of doing damage, but dominating mediocre Conference USA teams does not necessarily mean that they’re ready to raise their level against good teams, which is where they’ve struggled and why they got such a bad seed. Memphis is just 3-6 straight up this season against NCAA tournament quality teams– although most of those were early in the season before the Tigers hit their stride. The best team St. Louis beat was Xavier, who they went 2-1 against, but that isn’t that impressive given that Xavier isn’t really that good. But, a close 4 point loss at New Mexico in the Billikens’ only game against a really good team is an indication that they can compete with other good teams. Memphis’ recent surge sets up the Tigers in a very negative 36-97-3 ATS situation and a 5-30-1 ATS round 1 situation, so the Tigers could be ripe for an upset after their recent string of strong efforts. My ratings favor Memphis by 3 ½ points (with a total of 129 points), so the line appears to be fair, but I’m still reluctant to go against the Tigers in a Best Bet even though the situation merits it. I’ll consider St. Louis a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more and I’d take the Billikens in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 or more.
Opinion

Duke (-12) over Lehigh (Rotation: 824)
16-Mar-12 04:15 PM Pacific
Duke limps into the NCAA Tournament off 5 consecutive spread wins and possibly without 3rd leading scorer Ryan Kelly for a 3rd straight game (he’s questionable as of Wednesday). Duke is not playing any worse lately, they’re just randomly not making their 3-points shots like they normally do (just 28.8% the last 5 games instead of 37.6% as they have for the season), which is different than playing poorly. Losing 5 in a row to the spread is certainly not a negative (teams are actually 40-31-1 ATS in round 1 if they lost their last 5 games to the spread) and Duke’s 3-point shooting will likely return to normal levels. The Blue Devils also play relatively better against mediocre and bad teams and Lehigh is going to have trouble defending Duke’s big men, who have a significant advantage in height. Duke probably won’t have to shoot as many 3-pointers to score points in this game. Lehigh may be the best 15th seed that I’ve seen, as the Mountain Hawks are pretty good on both sides of the court and played pretty well against Michigan State (a 9 point road loss is impressive) and at Iowa State (also lost by 9). Two wins at Bucknell is also a sign that Lehigh tends to play better against better competition, which is a factor in my NCAA Tournament ratings. My ratings favor Duke by 10 ½ points (with a total of 150 ½ points) if Ryan Kelly is still out and by 11 ½ points if he returns, so the line is a bit high. However, the Blue Devils apply to a very good 82-29-4 ATS round 1 situation that has been good to me over the years. I’ll consider Duke a Strong Opinion at -12 points or less based on the strong situation.
Opinion

Michigan (-5 ½) over Ohio (Rotation: 846)
16-Mar-12 04:20 PM Pacific
Both of these teams play relatively better against better teams, which is more of an advantage for Ohio in this game since they’re stepping up in class while Ohio is slightly worse than the rating of Michigan’s average opponent. Ohio certainly played better against the better teams in the MAC, but the Bobcats played just one NCAA tournament quality team this season. That game was a 5 point loss at Louisville, which is a good effort, but that game was aided by some 3 point shooting variance as the Bobcats shot better than expected from 3-point range (35% is better than their season average of 33.8% and it came against a very good Louisville 3-point defense) while Louisville made just 26% of their 3-pointers. My NCAA tournament ratings are higher for both of these teams than their average overall rating and I come up with 5 ½ points as a fair line (with a total of 125 points), so there is no line value and the situational analysis is even too. However, Michigan head coach John Beilein is 92-65-1 ATS in his coaching career when his team is coming off a loss and the Wolverines have covered 13 in a row after a defeat, including straight up wins this season over Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Indiana. I’ll lean with Michigan at -6 points or less and I’d consider the Wolverines a Strong Opinion at -5 or less.
Opinion

St. Mary’s (-1) vs Purdue (Rotation: 854)
16-Mar-12 04:25 PM Pacific
This game is tough to pick, as St. Mary’s applies to a 33-8 ATS subset of a solid 62-29-2 ATS round 1 situation while Purdue is at their best after a loss. In fact, the Boilermakers are an incredible 23-1-1 ATS after losing by 9 points or more. My ratings favor St. Mary’s by 1.3 points (with a total of 139 ½ points), so there is no line value either. This one is probably best left alone but go ahead and take Purdue to win straight up if you get bonus points in your pool for upsets.
Opinion

Michigan State (-20) vs. LIU Brooklyn (Rotation: 832)
16-Mar-12 06:20 PM Pacific
Long Island is a bad defensive team and the Spartans should have no trouble scoring a ton of points in this game. The Blackbirds do shoot the ball pretty well though (36.8% from 3-point range), but their offensive rating is actually slightly worse than the average offensive rating of the teams that Michigan State faced this season and the Spartans only allowed 38% shooting. My ratings using all games would favor Michigan State by 23 points, but Long Island performed relatively better against the better teams that they faced and I think 20 points is a fair line (my predicted total is 153 points). I have no opinion on this game.
Opinion
Notre Dame (-2 ½) vs. Xavier (Rotation: 825)

16-Mar-12 06:45 PM Pacific
Xavier started the season with 8 consecutive wins that included games against Vanderbilt, Purdue and Cincinnati. However, the brawl in the Cincy game led to suspensions and a 3 game losing streak and the Musketeers continued to slump even after all the suspended starters returned. Xavier is just 6-16-1 ATS since that Cincinnati game but the Musketeers certainly have enough to talent to play better than they have and teams that had horrible spread records in the regular season actually tend to over-perform in the NCAA Tournament. In fact, Xavier applies to a 40-11 ATS situation that is based on that premise. Notre Dame, however, applies to a solid 46-19-1 ATS first round bounce-back situation, so the technical analysis is going both ways in this game. Notre Dame got better after a sluggish start to the season and my ratings take their current form into account. My ratings favor the Irish by just 1 ½ points (with a total of 123 ½ points), but there is not enough line value to even lean with Xavier unless the line goes up to 3 points. I’d lean with Xavier at +3 points or more.
Opinion

Temple (-3) vs South Florida (Rotation: 844)
16-Mar-12 06:50 PM Pacific
South Florida struggled early in the season with starters Augustus Gilchrest, Anthony Collins, and Jawanza Poland all missing games. Those 3 weren’t in the lineup together until the 11th games of the season and the Bulls’ went from being considered an afterthought in the Big East to being a legitimately good team. The Bulls are 15-8 ATS with their current lineup after dominating Cal on Wednesday and they are still a bit undervalued. Temple is also a little underrated, as the Owls struggled in 13 games without C Michael Eric (8.8 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game), but have been very good since he returned to the lineup on January 21st (9-5 ATS). My ratings, using current personnel for both teams, favors Temple by only 2 points (with a total of 119 ½ points) but the Owls apply to a solid 150-87-7 ATS first round situation. The best part of that situation doesn’t apply so the technical analysis in favor of the Owls is not strong enough to merit giving up a full point of line value. I have no opinion on this game, but I would lean with Temple at -2 or less.
3 Star Selection

Kansas (-14) over Detroit (Rotation: 852)
16-Mar-12 06:55 PM Pacific
Detroit is a veteran team that put things together to win the Horizon League tournament and Ray McCallum Jr. and Eli Holman are good mid-major players but Holman will be outmatched by Jayhawks All-American big man Thomas Robinson and the Kansas guards don’t let too many opponents dribble past them for layups. This is a bad match up for the Detroit, as Kansas ranks 2nd in the nation in 2-point percentage allowed (40.0%) and Detroit is among the worst 3-point shooting teams in the nation (29.6% in Division 1 games) and won’t be able to take advantage of a Kansas defense that forces teams to shoot from the perimeter (the Jayhawks allow a mediocre 34.7% 3-point shooting). Meanwhile, the Kansas offense, which ranks 8th in compensated offensive efficiency, should have no trouble scoring points against a Detroit defense that is worse than an average Division 1 team, which is pretty bad for this level of play. Kansas will have trouble late in the tournament when they run into a team that can make 3-pointers but Detroit is certainly not that team and my ratings favor Kansas by 16 points in this game (with a total of 146 points) using Detroit’s games with Holman (he missed the first 10 games of the season). The Jayhawks also apply to a 32-5 ATS subset of an 82-29-4 ATS first round situation and I’ll take Kansas in a 3-Star Best Bet at -15 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -16 points.
Play Strength: 3-Stars at -15 or less, 2-Stars up to -16.