3-17-12

[Mr. IWS]

Allen Eastman

2-Unit Play. Take #544 Toledo (+3) over Robert Morris (2 p.m., Saturday, March 17)

I like the home underdog in this situation. Toledo plays in a bigger and better conference than Robert Morris. And having the home edge will be a nice factor for this team. Toledo is a team that hasn't been in the postseason in ages. They are really excited to be playing in this tournament and they are going to continue to play hard.

3-Unit Play. Take #522 Marquette (-5) over Murray State (5:15 p.m., Saturday, March 17)
I like this Marquette team. And after today they could be one of the only Big East teams left in the tournament. The Golden Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last seven games and they looked great while winning my 8-Unit Tournament Game of the Year on Thursday. They beat a good BYU team by 20 points and that was never a good game. Murray State has been a good story all year. But they haven't played the schedule that Marquette has. This is the best team that Murray State has faced this year as the Racers have played the No. 248 schedule in the country. They have made a nice run. But I think Marquette is too tough and Buzz Williams' team will collect for me again.

2-Unit Play. Take #539 Georgia State (-2) over Mercer (4 p.m., Saturday, March 17)

I think that Georgia State is favored for a reason here. These two teams both played OVC teams in their last games. Georgia State won by 31 and Mercer only won by 8. This Panthers team has a lot of seniors and they don't want their season and their careers to end. This group has really taken to Ron Hunter's system. This is a nice rivalry game in Atlanta and should be a tough game. But Georgia State is 6-0 ATS in its last six nonconference game and they will get a win down the road today.

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso 200 - Marq

[Mr. IWS]

Mike Neri

STRONG COLLEGE HOOPS LATE SERVICE WINNER - ONE

THREE STAR: 520 Ohio St -7.5 2:45 EST

[Mr. IWS]

Arlon

Vanderbilt

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo

7-Unit Play. Take #840 Baylor (-7.5) over Colorado (8:40 p.m., Saturday, March 17)
Note: This is our NCAA Tournament Game of the Year.

Let's start with the premise that Baylor is going to win this game. I do think that. I think that they are going to advance here and that means a win over Colorado. That's an important statement to make though. Because if we agree that Baylor will win this game then the question is, "Can Colorado keep it close?"

Let me start by saying sure, I do think Colorado can keep it close. But I don't think that they will. And the numbers overwhelmingly support my assertion.

First, the No. 3 seed has statistically been one of the best bets in the tournament in this round. Over the last five years the No. 3 seeds are 12-6 ATS in the second round. And when you throw out the Washington win over New Mexico in 2008 - a game where underseeded No. 11 Washington was the favorite - then the No. 3 seed is 12-5 ATS as a favorite and is 4-1 ATS against the No. 11 seed in the second round.

Last year No. 3 BYU hammered No. 11 Gonzaga by 22 points in a similar setup. The other instances were this same Baylor team handling Old Dominion 76-68 as a four-point favorite in 2010, Kansas crushing Dayton 60-43 in 2009, Wisconsin hammering Kansas State by 17 in 2008, and Pittsburgh winning in OT but not covering against VCU in 2008.

The reason behind these numbers are simple: as we get further into the tournament the cream rises to the top.

Baylor is an excellent team. There are only four teams that have beaten them this year: Kansas, Missouri, Iowa State and Kansas State. Those are all quality teams right there. They have some NBA talent, two quality guards, some depth and experience, and they have proven that they can dominate opponents by controlling the glass and the interior.

The Bears have also shown that they can lay into people. They have played 12 games against teams comparable to Colorado in rating and personnel: San Diego State, Northwestern, BYU, St. Mary's, West Virginia, Mississippi State, Kansas State (3 times), Oklahoma State and Iowa State. They won those 11 games (played on the road, at home and on neutral courts) by an average of 11.6 points per game. And even if you throw out the 40-point Oklahoma State blowout they won the rest of those games by 8.8 points per game. And kick out that Mississippi State game (they are the lowest-rated comparison team) and the average goes back to 9.6 points per game.

Also, only four of those 11 games were decided by less than eight points and none of them since Jan. 10. This Baylor team beat Kansas State in the Big 12 tournament by eight, they beat Kansas by nine, and they beat South Dakota State in their first round game by eight. All three of those teams are better than Colorado and Baylor did its thing.

Add that in with the average win by the No. 3 over the No. 11 at about 12.8 points and we have a consistent trend toward a blowout.

So Baylor can blow teams out. They have that capability. And the No. 3 seeds in this tournament usually win by blowout at this stage against a No. 11. But the flip side is that when Colorado loses they normally get their asses kicked. Only one of their 11 losses this year came by less than seven points. They lost by 14 at Oregon State, by 9 at Oregon, by 24 to Stanford, by 14 at Arizona, by 17 at UCLA, by 20 at Stanford, by 7 at Cal and by 11 to Wyoming. That means their last eight losses have come by an average of 14.5 points. Again: when they lose they generally aren't even close.

The reason that when Colorado loses they generally get bombed is because this isn't a great offensive team. They are the No. 137 rated team in offensive efficiency and they are the No. 148 rated 3-point shooting team in the country. Those are perfectly mediocre numbers. They have decent size but they also don't have depth. This team relies on pretty much just seven guys and they have been logging big minutes. This team had to win four games in four nights last week just to get in the tournament and then they had a weird/thrilling win over UNLV in the opener. I just wonder how much they have left in the tank as Baylor just tries to pound them and wear them down on the interior. If this Colorado team falls behind I think it could get away from them a bit.

Also, Colorado is in a big letdown spot. This is not a good shooting team, yet they shot a ridiculous 58.3 percent from 3-point land against UNLV and finished at 45.8 percent from the field. On the flip side, the Rebels shot just 32.4 percent (they went 23-for-71) from the field and 25 percent (9-for-36) from deep. Despite those ridiculous advantages, Colorado won by just four points.

I am willing to bet that Colorado will not shoot that well against Baylor. And I also don't think that the Bears will shoot as poorly as UNLV did. Baylor plays a 2-3 zone so they are going to force Colorado to do damage from the perimeter and, again, this team shoots about 34 percent for the season and they are coming off a game where they hit nearly 60 percent of their 3-pointers. I just don't think they will duplicate that.

Baylor was tested by a good-shooting South Dakota State team. But they kept their head, they overcame a slow start, and they just kept banging away until they pulled away for an eight-point win. That is the type of maturity that I don't know that people are giving them credit for right now. I think this team is actually a little underrated (after being kind of overrated for a good portion of the year) and that they will do work here against a team that has probably come to the end of the line of a great March run. If Baylor can beat Kansas by nine last week I think they can beat Colorado by double-digits today.

Colorado has not played a team as good as Baylor this year. The Pac-12 was mediocre this year and the Buffaloes got wrecked by some of the teams in that league. Their best wins were at home and they didn't come against top-level teams. Baylor is a team that demolished Northwestern on the road, they handled BYU away from home, they won at Kansas State, they blew out St. Mary's on a neutral court, etc. I think that they have a skill set that transfers well to winning at home, on the road, or on a neutral court.

I know a lot of people are lukewarm on Baylor right now. But I'm going to buy into their size, their athleticism, their experience and the fact that after scoring just two points in the opener I think that Perry Jones III is going to be a force today. Colorado has had a great run.

1-Unit Play. Take #520 Ohio State (-7.5) over Gonzaga (2:45 p.m., Saturday, March 17)

2-Unit Play. Take #522 Marquette (-5) over Murray State (5:15 p.m., Saturday, March 17)

0.5-Unit Play. Take #526 Wisconsin (+1) over Vanderbilt (6 p.m., Saturday, March 17)

1-Unit Play. Take #523 Iowa State (+11.5) over Kentucky (7:45 p.m., Saturday, March 17)
Note: Lower to a 0.5-Unit Play.

1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #517 Kansas State (+10) over Syracuse (12:15 p.m.) AND Take #520 Ohio State (-2.5) over Gonzaga (2:45 p.m.)

[Mr. IWS]

Frank Patron
20,000 Vandy -1

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo

NHL Game of the Year: Saturday
7* Take #56 Minnesota (+105) over Carolina (2pm, Saturday, March 17)

3* Take Over (5.5) Columbus at Vancouver (10pm, Saturday, March 17)

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas Sports Informer

2* Take #2563 St. Louis -145 over Tampa Bay (7:05p.m., Saturday March 17)

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Valentino

60 DIME

ODDSMAKERS ERROR OF THE YEAR

Mercer +2

[Mr. IWS]

Shaker
Kentucky Under 142 Double-dime

[Mr. IWS]

KEB SPORTS
Chicago Bulls -5 for 4 units
San Antonio Spurs +3.5 for 3 units
Robert Morris -3 for 4 units
Ohio State -8 for 4 units
Idaho+ 6 for 3 units

[Mr. IWS]

Dave Essler

Triple dime-New Mex
Double- Vandy over

[Mr. IWS]

VR

Ohio State 3*
Kentucky 2*
New Mexico 2*